汽車保有率之預測─以2001年至2030年之中國各省分為例

Abstract

隨著21世紀經濟的蓬勃發展，中國的汽車數量開始急遽攀升，而汽車普及的同時，卻也造成能源消耗與環境污染等成本，為了兼顧兩者之平衡，預測未來汽車發展趨勢實為重要，其數據可提供政府規劃相關政策，及早因應日後的潛在問題。本文利用中國2001年至2019年31個省分的長期追蹤資料，採Gompertz成長模型分析實質人均GDP對汽車保有率之長期影響，並以ARIMA模型預測2020年至2030年的人均GDP發展，最後合併上述兩模型之實證結果，預測各省分未來十年的汽車保有率。\n根據研究結果，中國各省分未來的汽車保有率飽和數量多為700餘輛，而十年後(2030年)汽車保有率將達300餘輛之水準。雖然中國汽車市場已進入成長趨緩之階段，然其發展空間依舊不容小覷。對此，中國政府應該採取更積極的措施以應對交通造成之環境問題。

The number of vehicles has experienced a tremendous expansion as Chinese economy grows rapidly in the 21st century. This comes with social costs, such as energy consumptions and CO2 emissions. In order to achieve a balance between economic development and environmental protection, it is important for the government to understand the future development of automotive market.\nThis paper aims to make projections of the growth in vehicle ownership in 31 provinces of China from 2020 to 2030. Based on annual province-level data from 2001 to 2019, I forecast the levels of GDP per capita from 2020 to 2030 and apply Gompertz growth model to predict vehicle ownership rates for each province in the next decade. The results suggest that the vehicle ownership saturation levels for most provinces are estimated to be about 700 vehicles per 1,000 people, and they will reach 300 vehicles per 1,000 people by 2030. These findings have implications for Chinese government authority to take actions on transport and environmental policies.