中共「二十大」與政治導向的菁英管理：習時期高層幹部懲罰案例分析

Abstract

中共建政以來，「政治」乃是與中央保持一致的代名詞。領導人任內建立「政治標準」，除確保菁英與中央路線的一致性，更藉此控管菁英晉升，排除不合作者。因此歷任領導人經常透過組織、紀律甚至運動等工具來維繫路線。習近平接班後也建立個人政治導向的菁英管理模式，至中共「二十大」對高層領導幹部的「能上能下」建立新的標準。本文認為，這樣的標準，除了派系因素外，多數是習主政十年，藉由中央文件與對高層幹部紀律懲處逐步累積而來。本文透過文字探勘彙整習時期菁英落馬的依據，從大量文本中看出語彙間的關聯性，體現該技術對中共文件分析的貢獻，但可能忽略詞頻較低，詞彙網絡關係較弱者，因而在解讀上僅能呈現習近平對「廉潔」紀律的重視。倘若能抽出重大事件的個案進行探討，有利於讓文字探勘與傳統文本詮釋提供更完整的解釋功能。本文發現，中央懲處背後所要表達的政治標準，在於對黨的忠誠、意識形態信仰，以及腐敗背後所衍生對「黨的領導」的破壞。比如習近平以「談話調研」取代胡錦濤時期的「票決制」，除解決地方幹部賄選問題，也讓菁英甄補的目標從「新老交替」轉向強調「政治標準」，但「政治標準」可能導致幹部向上依附的慣性，不利於決策的理性化。

Since the establishment of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in power, “Zhengzhi”（政治） has been synonymous with aligning with the central authority. During their leadership tenure, they established “political criteria”（政治標準）to ensure consistency with the central route among the elite and also used this to control elite promotions and exclude incompatible collaborators. Therefore, past leaders often employed tools such as organization, discipline, and even movements to maintain the course. After Xi Jinping took over, he also established a personal political-oriented elite management model. He not only broke the age limits but also created new standards for elite promotion in the 20th national congress of the CCP. The article argues that such standards have mostly evolved over the past decade of Xi’s leadership, accumulating gradually through central documents and disciplinary actions against senior officials, with factional factors being a contributing factor. This article utilizes text mining to consolidate the basis for identifying fallen elites during the Xi’s era. It reveals the associations between vocabulary from a large corpus, demonstrating the contributions of this technique to the analysis of CCP documents. However, it may overlook words with lower frequency and weaker vocabulary network relationships, thus only highlighting Xi’s emphasis on “integrity” discipline in interpretation. If it is possible to select specific cases of significant events for investigation, it will be beneficial in enhancing the explanatory capabilities of both text mining and traditional text interpretation. This article finds that the political criteria underlying the Central Disciplinary Actions lie in loyalty to the party, ideological beliefs, and the erosion of “party leadership” stemming from corruption. For example, Xi Jinping replaced the “voting system”（ 票決制）of the Hu Jintao era with “discussion and check”（談話調研）which not only addressed the issue of local officials engaging in bribery and election fraud but also shifted the focus of elite recruitment from “generational alternation”（新老交替） to emphasizing “political criteria”. However, the emphasis on “political criteria” may lead to the inertia of officials seeking upward patronage, which is not conducive to rational decision-making.