Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32241


Title: 以公司治理、相對盈餘管理與財務比率建構企業預警模型
Authors: 陳書偉
Contributors: 沈中華
陳書偉
Keywords: 公司治理
盈餘管理
預警模型
因素分析
logistic迴歸分析
Date: 2006
Issue Date: 2009-09-14 13:29:21 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 本文參照前人學者實證研究中所選取之財務比率變數,其中包含經營效率、獲利性、償債能力等構面中所選取財務比率變數共17個,另加入董事會特性、股權結構、參與管理等構面之公司治理變數共13個治理變數,以及納入盈餘管理變數與相關控制變數分別建構3個財務預警模型,並將會計資訊變數的資料型態依Platt(1990)之概念分為兩種,用意在分別比較原比率型態之預警模型與相對比率型態之預警模型之差異,樣本公司抽樣於2002年至2005年間,以TEJ資料庫認定為財務危機之企業,從中抽取跨產業41家財務危機之樣本企業,以1:2之比率抽取資產總額相近之82家正常企業樣本,總樣本數為123家樣本公司,實證結果顯示在財務危機發生前一、二年度,整體而言相對比率之預警模型預測能力與類比解釋能力相對優於一般原比率之財務預警模型,而盈餘管理變數確實能提高模型預測準確率,在越接近財務危機發生之時間點,其效果較為顯著,尤其相對比率之盈餘管理變數優於原比率之盈餘管理變數,再者公司治理變數之加入,亦同樣對模型之區別能力有所幫助,總和而言同時加入會計資訊變數、盈餘管理變數與公司治理變數之相對比率預警模型,是為本文所建預警模型中最佳效率之預警模型。
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Description: 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟研究所
94258021
95
Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094258021
Data Type: thesis
Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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