俄羅斯與阿根廷經濟轉型之比較研究

Abstract

俄羅斯與阿根廷的經濟改革在「華盛頓共識」下揭開了序幕。1991年蘇聯解體後，俄羅斯的政治由一黨專政走向多元的民主，而經濟體制也從過去的社會主義所有制轉向市場經濟體制發展。相對阿根廷則是在1983年軍政府的威權官僚統治被推翻後，開始施行民主政治。而國內的經濟也在1984年開始從過度干預的市場向自由放任的資本主義市場移動。但在兩國國內經濟改革的過程中，國會及西方國際金融組織的影響為經濟改革帶來莫大的變數。因此本文旨在透過剖析國會、國家政府、和西方國際金融組織三者之間的互動與關係，分析穩定化經濟政策的產出、施行的過程、及所帶來的結果。本文也著重地探討和穩定化相互關連與影響的通貨膨脹與西方外援這兩個因素，探究權力均衡、穩定化、通貨膨脹、經濟表現、與西方外援對俄羅斯與阿根廷國家經濟轉型過程所產生的影響。\n本論文主要採用國會、國家政府、與西方國際金融組織，權力均衡的研究途徑，透過選舉週期與經改週期的因素影響，探討俄羅斯與阿根廷經濟轉型的過程與發展。因為受到上述三邊角力的影響，穩定化(stabilization)成了國內經濟改革最主要的問題，因此本文著重在經濟改革穩定化層面的發展，及與穩定化息息相關，相互影響的因素-通貨膨脹與西方外援，提出更進一步的剖析。在這樣的架構下，本論文第一章除了說明研究動機與目的、研究架構、章節安排外，還介紹與研究題目相關的文獻，並指出過去文獻的優缺點，以做為論文研究之基礎。第二章敘述俄羅斯與阿根廷經濟改革前的歷史背景，探討前蘇聯與阿根廷軍政府為之後經濟改革所留下的伏筆；第三章闡述俄羅斯與阿根廷經濟轉型穩定化之成效、透過國內政治週期對兩國國家領導人：葉爾欽(Boris Yeltsin)、普欽(Vladimir Putin)、阿芳辛(Raúl Alfonsín)、美能(Carlos Menem)、與德拉魯阿(Fernando De la Rua)所產生的影響為論述的焦點；第四章則論述通貨膨脹與西方外援對兩國國內經濟改革的相互影響，並指出它們在穩定化政策執行下的表現，及如何再次回歸影響到穩定化制程的發展；第五章為結論。\n本論文所得到的結論是國會、國家政府、與國際金融組織的權力均衡決定了俄羅斯與阿根廷國家經濟轉型穩定化的走向，而穩定的經濟政策是帶動國家經濟成長的關鍵。目前在普欽強勢的帶領之下，俄羅斯已逐漸擺脫金融風暴的陰霾，而阿根廷在新總統基什內爾(Nestor Kirchner)的領導下，是否有辦法帶領阿根廷的經濟走向復甦與成長，還有待時間的考驗。

Under the “Washington consensus”, Russia and Argentina have started their economic transition. The collapse of the Soviet Union has led Russia from one-party dictatorship to plural democracy in politics and from socialistic ownership to free-market system in economy. In contrast in 1983, after the demolition of Argentina Military Dictatorship Bureaucratic authoritarianism regime, the country started to apply democracy. And soon, in 1984, Argentina’s economy started to move from over control market toward free individual capitalism market. However, in the economic reform process of both countries, the Parliament and Western International Financial Organizations have brought immense impact on their economic transitions. Therefore, this thesis is aimed to understand the interactive relationships among Parliament, Government, and Western International Organizations, and also to study the formulation of the economic stabilization programs, the application process, and the conclusion. Also, in the thesis we will discuss inflation and western aid factors that have close relationship and mutual influences with the stabilization programs, so to find out the impacts and the developments brought by balance of power, stabilization, inflation, economic performance, and western aids in the process of economic transition.\n In this thesis, we adopt the Parliament, Government, and Western International Organizations’ balance of power as the research approach, through the impact of election’s cycle and economic transition’s cycle, we discuss the process and developments of Russian and Argentina’s economic transition. Because the influences brought by above authorities, stabilization becomes the most important concern for countries which are performing economic transition. As so, the thesis is focused on stabilization sphere, and the factors of inflation and western aids that brought mutual influences to stabilization. Under this framework, the first chapter includes the research motives and objectives, the research framework, chapter arrangements, and the advantages and disadvantages of relevant literature. The second chapter describes Russian and Argentina’s historical background before the economic transition, and we also analyze the hints left by the Soviet Union and Argentina military government. The third one, we focus on the effects of stabilization program in Russian and Argentina economic transition, through the interaction of election’s cycle and both countries’ leader: Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin, Raúl Alfonsín, Carlos Menem, Fernando De la Rua. The fourth chapter analyzes the interaction among inflation and western aids with country’s economic transition, we also point out the inflation and western aids’ performances under different periods of stabilization program, and how they come back to influence the formulation of the stabilization program. The fifth one is the conclusion.\nWe come to conclusion that the balance of power among the Parliament, Government, and Western International Organizations decide the tendency of Russian and Argentina’s economic stabilization, and the key to bring the country economic growth is to settle a stable economic policy. Now, under Putin’s strong leadership, Russian has started to get over from the shadow of 1998 crisis. But Argentina with the guidance of the new president Nestor Kirchner, whether the country will be lead to a revival and growth way or not, it will still remain under the question.