俄羅斯遠東石油管線爭議案之研究-- 國內、決策層次分析

Abstract

911事件後，阿富汗戰爭與第2次海灣戰爭改變國際石油能源板塊，激化大國間的能源爭奪。遠東石油管競標案之爭議，顯示中日積極尋求海灣國家以外之替代來源，中日爭奪遠東石油管線的過程，可視為21世紀亞洲的石油戰爭。該政策之發展勢將影響東北亞各國能源政策之走向，與區域國際關係。\n\n本文乃層次分析法之個案研究，分別從國際層次、國家層次、決策層次等面向切入，探討遠東石油管線案峰迴路轉之深層因素。就國際層次而言，遠東石油管爭議案是日本與中國爭奪石油管線的角力過程；就國家層次而言，遠東石油管爭議案是俄羅斯官方打壓金融寡頭的過程；就決策層次而言，遠東石油管爭議案是俄羅斯行政內，不同派系政爭的過程，以及克里姆林宮內經濟顧問派與安全顧問派爭奪國家發展方向的過程。

This article is a case study of levels of analysis. It is a researching about Russian pipeline dispute in North East Asia from the view of nation state and decision-making levels. The case offers a step in direction to realize power struggle between 2 families in Russia After 2000. For the long-time, Russian politics has hassled for the national develop line: Security or Economy. Under the policy argument, different groups struggle to control the politic right to speak, and future direction of country. As a top leader of security system, President Putin（Putin Vladimir Vlaimirovich, Владимир Владимирович Путин）has no chose but incriminated into the ero-sum struggle. The result can affect Russian domestic affairs, foreign and security policy, even the development of national line after 2008 and the order of CIS and Eastern-North Asia. We hypothesize that: (1) Power struggle during Yeltsin Period: Power transition in Russia after 2000 is not the change of Russian president, but also the substitution among different interest groups. The war has started even before Putin came to power. And, it is still on going now. (2) State Duma: In state duma, in the election in the end of 2003, United Russia party draws much of its strength from administrative resources. Duma become legislative bureau of Putin. (3) In executive administration, Putin controls Kremlin after fall of Aleksandr S. Voloshin in 2003, and, controls administrative system after fall of Kasyanov in 2004. Finally, controls military system after fall of Anatoli kvashnin in 2004. And, the pipeline is the victim of political struggle.