二代健保實施第1及第2年保險資金流量推估研究

Abstract

全民健保法的修正，也就是一般稱的二代健保法於2011年1月26日公告，依法施行細則需在6個月內出爐，目前正進行各項準備工作，因有30多項法規命令新制訂及多一個補充保險費收取，因此，未來要利用這段時間充分說明讓社會各界了解。其中補充保險費包括全年大於4個月獎金、兼職所得、執行業務收入、利息、租金、股利，若單筆金額上限為新台幣1000萬元、初估下限2000元者，都必須收取2%補充保險費。補充保險費收取，未來將採取就源扣繳方式，然而補充保費之資料必須取自於財稅體系。本研究主要分析與估計在二代健康保險中，納入補充保險費費基後，以財稅資料中心過去10年所掌握之財稅資料，以時間序列方式推估實施二代健保之後，其保費收入金額在考慮了總體經濟環境，例如利率，乃至於其他次要因子，如薪資成長變化等不同因素後，國內各部門（政府、雇主及被保險人）保險費收繳之分析，模擬保費收繳方式可能產生之保險費收繳率，以及設算二代健保實施第1及第2年保險資金流量結果。

“Second Generation National Health Insurance” had been declared on Jan. 26th, 2011, which is amending certain provisions of the National Health Insurance Act. The bonuses, stock dividends, business execution income, rental income, interest income, income from part-time jobs, etc. will be included in the basis for calculating supplementary premiums for the insured. A supplementary premium shall be collected from employers based on the difference between the total monthly salary paid by the employer and the sum of monthly claimed insured amount for the employees. The supplementary premiums calculation is based on personal income tax data that is maintained by “Financial Data Center Ministry of Finance”. In this research, we investigate the financial condition of the National Health Insurance in future span of 2 years by appraising both the total insurance outlays revenue and medical treatment expenditure. We establish the time series formulation of the medical treatment expenditure and, along with the macro- economical model, we estimate the average growth rate of outgoings per year by adopting the prevalent VAR model in macro-economical parameters forecasting. We calculate the bankrupt probability via the comparison between total amount of the proceeds and disbursement with the aim of cash flow management.