Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/57957| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 胡偉民 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author | 范瀞元 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator | 范瀞元 | zh_TW |
| dc.date | 2011 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2013-05-01T03:47:10Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2013-05-01T03:47:10Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2013-05-01T03:47:10Z | - |
| dc.identifier | G0099255016 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/57957 | - |
| dc.description | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description | 財政研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description | 99255016 | zh_TW |
| dc.description | 100 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | 北京市為解決嚴重的道路堵塞問題，自2010年12月23日實施汽車限購政策。北京市於2010年10月傳出將要實施汽車限購政策，而本研究使用差中差方法估計消息傳出至開始實施日期間，政策消息對於汽車銷售量之影響。\r\n研究中所使用之汽車銷售資料來源為中國「車輛登記管理所」中的「全中國登錄各月新增車輛」，以及「太平洋汽車網」的汽車詳細特性資料整理而成。以北京市為實驗組，其他非北京城市，與重慶市、天津市等為對照組，在控制了汽車特性以及加入了時間趨勢之後，可從實證結果得知，不論是以哪些城市當作對照組，在這段期間內，北京市的汽車銷售量皆有顯著的增加，與預測的結果相符。\r\n在研究最後進一步使用穩定性檢驗，證明北京市汽車銷售量的突然增加是否真的為政策消息影響。最後結果亦與預期相符，證實北京市的汽車銷售量突然增加是由汽車限購政策消息所影響。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | To solve the serious road congestion problems, Beijing has implemented the restrictions on car ownership. In October, 2010, news started to spread that Beijing would bring the automobile purchase limit policy into practice. This study, using a method named “difference-in-difference”, estimated the policy’s impact on automobile sales volume in the period from when the news was launched to the day the policy was actually implemented. \r\nThe data in this paper come from “Monthly Increase in Registered Vehicles Across China” of “Vehicle Registration and Management Bureau of China”, and the detailed characteristic data of vehicles from “Pacific Automobile Network”. We set Beijing as the experimental group, and the non-Beijing cities such as Chongqing and Tianjin as the control group. After controlling the characteristics of vehicles and adding time trend, we can learn from the experimental result that no matter which city is used as the control group, during the period, the vehicle sales volumes in Beijing increase significantly, which meets our expectation.\r\nIn the last step of the research, stability test is used to prove whether the sudden increase of Beijing’s automobile sales volume is affected by the spread news. And the final result is also in accord with our expectation: the sudden increase in Beijing’s automobile sales volume is affected by the spread news of the automobile purchase limit policy. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 圖目錄 IV\r\n表目錄 V\r\n第一章、緒論 1\r\n第一節、背景介紹 1\r\n第二節、研究動機與目的 7\r\n第二章、文獻回顧 9\r\n第一節、汽車產業政策回顧 9\r\n第二節、研究方法回顧 10\r\n第三章、研究方法 13\r\n第一節、模型說明 13\r\n第二節、模型設定 14\r\n第三節、資料來源、變數定義與說明 16\r\n第四章、主要研究 20\r\n第一節、變數敘述統計 20\r\n第二節、基本實證結果 24\r\n第三節、控制汽車特性實證結果 28\r\n第四節、穩定性檢驗 30\r\n第五章、結論 32\r\n第六章、參考資料 35 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099255016 | en_US |
| dc.subject | 差中差方法 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 汽車限購政策 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 中國汽車產業 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 穩定性檢驗 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 北京市 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Difference- in-Difference | en_US |
| dc.subject | Automobile Purchase Limit Policy | en_US |
| dc.subject | China’s Automotive Industry | en_US |
| dc.subject | Stability Test | en_US |
| dc.subject | Beijing City | en_US |
| dc.title | 北京汽車限購政策消息對汽車銷售量之影響：Difference-in-Difference方法之運用 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | The Effect of News of Automobile Purchase Limit Policy in Beijing on Automobile Sales Volume: An Application of Difference-in-Differences | en_US |
| dc.type | thesis | en |
| dc.relation.reference | 一、英文部分\r\nBarter P. A. (2005), “A vehicle quota integrated with road usage pricing: A mechanism to complete the phase-out of high fixed vehicle taxes in Singapore,” Transport Policy, 12(6), 525-536.\r\n\r\nCard,D. and A.B. Krueger (1994), “Minimum wages and employment: A case\r\nstudy of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania,” American\r\nEconomic Review, 84,772-793.\r\n\r\nCard D. and D. G. Sullivan (1998), “Measuring the effect of subsidized training programs on movements in and out of employment,” Econometrica, 56(3), 497-530.\r\n\r\nCanhui H., W. M. HU, J. E. Prieger, D. Zhu (2011), “French Automobiles and the Chinese Boycotts of 2008: Politics Really Does Affect Commerce,” The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy: 11(1), 26.\r\n\r\nCHINA DAILY (2011), “2010 auto sales driven to a record,” Retrieved July 2, 2012, from http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-01/11/content_11823998.htm\r\n\r\nHao H., H. Wang, M. Ouyang (2010), “Comparison of policies on vehicle ownership and use between Beijing and Shanghai and their impacts on fuel consumption by passenger vehicles,” Energy Policy, 39(2), 1016-1021.\r\n\r\nInternational Monetary Fund, Retrieved July 2, 2012, from http://www.imf.org/extern\r\nnal/index.htm\r\n\r\nKoh W. T. H. (2003), “Control of vehicle ownership and market competition: Theory and Singapore’s experience with the vehicle quota system,” Transportation Research Part A, 37(9), 749-770.\r\n\r\nMeyer, Bruce. D (1994), “Natural and Quasi-Experiment in Economics,” NBER\r\nWorking Paper, NO. 170.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nMoffitt, Robert A. and Mark O. Wilhelm (2000), “Taxation and Labor Supply\r\nDecisions of the Affluent,” Joel Slemrod (ed.) Does Atlas Shrug? The Economic Consequences of Taxing the Rich. ( Cambridge University Press, 2000).\r\n\r\n\r\nPhang S. Y., W. K. Wong, and N. C. Chia (1996), “Singapore’s experience with car quotas: Issues and policy processes,” Transport Policy, 3(4), 145-153.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n二、中文部分\r\nARTC (2010)，「2009年全球車市回顧與2010年展望」，上網日期：2012年7月1日，取自http://www.artc.org.tw/chinese/03_service/03_02detail.aspx?pid=1455\r\n\r\n太平洋汽車網，上網日期：2012年3月10日，取自http://www.pcauto.com.cn/\r\n\r\n中國汽車工業協會，上網日期：2012年6月10日，取自http://www.caam.org.cn/\r\n\r\n中國政府網 (2009)，「汽車產業調整和振興規畫」，上網日期：2011年11月15日，取自http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2009-03/20/content_1264324.htm\r\n\r\n中國北亞車市，上網日期：2012年6月10日，http://www.beiyacheshi.com/\r\n\r\n中國汽車工業協會統計信息網，上網日期：2012年7月1日，http://www.auto/\r\nstats.org.cn/\r\n\r\n中華人民共和國國家統計局，上網日期：2012年7月2日，http://www.stats.gov.cn/\r\n\r\n江小涓 (1996)，「經濟轉軌時期的產業政策」，上海：三聯書店。\r\n\r\n李洪 (1993)，「中國汽車工業經濟分析」，北京市：中國人民大學出版。\r\n\r\n夏樂生 (2005)，「產業政策與產業發展的關連─以大陸汽車產業為例」，東亞研究期刊，36(1), 173-225。\r\n\r\n郭敏華 (2007)，「台灣垃圾強制分類政策的成效實證分析」，國立政治大學財政所碩士論文。\r\n\r\n陳信宏、溫蓓章、李祐欣 (2010)，「中國大陸官方車輛產業技術重點」，台北，中華經濟研究院。\r\n\r\n張琮弼 (2008)，「中國汽車產業的合資發展策略研究─以上海汽車公司與通用汽車的合作為例」，國立中山大學大陸研究所碩士論文。\r\n\r\n趙英 (2000)，「中國產業政策實證分析」，北京：社會科學文獻出版社。 | zh_TW |
| item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
| item.grantfulltext | open | - |
| item.languageiso639-1 | en_US | - |
| item.openairetype | thesis | - |
| item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_46ec | - |
| item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
| Appears in Collections: | 學位論文 | |
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| index.html | 122 B | HTML2 | View/Open |
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