選舉課責：以2009年台灣縣市長選舉為例

Abstract

過去學者以政黨認同或是候選人取向來解釋選舉的投票行為，忽略了選舉可能具有的選舉課責意涵。本文認為，應該視選舉為選民在現任者（包含與現任者屬於同一政黨的參選人）與挑戰者之間做出選擇，主要假設為過去執政表現的評估越好，選民越會投給現任者；政黨認同若與現任者屬於同一政黨，選民也越會投給現任者。資料來源為2009年17個縣市長選舉前進行的電話訪問，共有1439個樣本。本文的發現除了為選舉研究領域提供新的解釋變項-地方政策滿意程度與地方政治知識-之外，也證實台灣民眾的確會以施政表現課責地方政府的現任者，而且總統的表現亦影響選民的投票選擇及參與。這些發現對於地方治理以及民意均有一定的啟發。

Scholars have long explained voting behavior with party identification or personal attributes of candidates. While previous researches successfully explain how the electorate chooses candidates on the basis of partisanship, candidate evaluations, and policy issues, electoral accountability is not addressed adequately. This article explores electoral accountability in the 2009 local elections of Taiwan. It is found that overall satisfaction with local governments has an impact on voting choices between the incumbents and challengers, controlling for last voting choices and partisanship. Assessment of the president`s performance is also influential on voting decisions. These findings have important implications for local governance and public opinion.