東亞地緣政治結構對中國歷代大戰略的影響

Abstract

地緣政治結構是從地理的角度研究政治、資源、國際權力重心的相對位置分布，並以國家是否控制結構中戰略交通線來決定結構形式，並對結構中各層級單元－地緣政治領域、地緣政治區域與民族國家的地緣政治模式與特徵進行政治地理分析的結構模型，以此研究國家在此種地理關係下的大戰略行為。國家在特定時代的大戰略受到該國的地理環境以及該時代地緣政治結構的影響。東亞在歷史上是一相當封閉的區域地緣政治結構，但做為東亞主體國家的中國在歷史上甚少居於完全的霸權地位，大多數時候東亞地緣政治結構長期在無極、單極、兩極與三極中變化，中國因而經常必須與其他強大力量中心競爭結構中適於中原農耕文明發展與重要國防與經濟利益的地區，使得中國大戰略從西周起就經常帶有明顯的攻勢／擴張傾向，但同時以安撫型戰略手段減少在兩個以上戰線作戰的戰略困境。兩宋與明朝由於地緣政治結構的改變而使防禦型大戰略逐漸取代攻勢／擴張大戰略；而只有在東漢與清朝時期，結構形式為中國完全沒有競爭對手的霸權結構，安撫型大戰略才成為主要的大戰略類型。

Geopolitical structure analyzes the distributions of political and international power gravity and resources. It differentiates shapes of structure by considering whether state can control the strategic line of communication of structure, and focuses on the strategic behavior between structure and the geopolitical features of every unit at each level, including geostrategic realms, regions, and states. State’s strategic behavior in a certain era is influenced by its own geopolitical settings and the structure. Historically, East Asia is a closed regional geopolitical structure, but the dominating state of East Asia, China, is rarely a hegemony. The shapes of structure change between non-polarity, unipolarity, bipolarity, multipolarity, and tripolarity. China therefore usually competes with other power centers in controlling areas suitable for the development of Han agricultural civilization and with other important defense or economic interests. The grand strategies of ancient China from Western Zhou were usually offensive/expansionist oriented consequently, but also with accommodationist character to avoid fighting simultaneously. During the Song and the Ming dynasties, offensive/expansionist is replaced by defensive strategy due to significant structural changes. Only in the mid- Eastern Han and Qing, there were no real challengers in the hegemonic structure, accommodateonist thus predominates the preferences of grand strategy.