一對多供應鏈在不確定性環境下之倒閉骨牌效應

Abstract

在一個由單一上游廠商與多個下游廠商組成的供應鏈中，幾個下游廠商的退場會 導致上游廠商的退場? 上游廠商在面對接連倒閉的下游廠商是否會出手相救?若 出手又是在何時出手?在基本模型中，下游廠商們面對同一個需求的不確定性來 源，但這個不確定性對各下游廠商的影響不一。首先，我將研究只有兩家下游廠 商的情況再研究三家下游廠商，以此類推。此研究的其一目的乃推論至 家下游 廠商。緊接在這個基本模型之後是一個有多種不確定性的模型。不同下游市場成 為夕陽產業的速度不同，也就是說他們所面對的不確定性不同。

This project aims to answer the question of how many exits in the downstream market will lead to the exit of the upstream monopolist and while facing the exits of its downstream counterparties, will the upstream monopolist take an act to delay the exit of a downstream firm. In the benchmark model, the downstream markets face the same source of demand uncertainty but the uncertainty may have different effects on the firms. I first study the case of two downstream firms and then the case of three. One of the goals of this paper is to generalize the benchmark model to downstream firms. Following the benchmark model is the model in which the each downstream market is facing a different source of uncertainty, namely saying that the markets are declining at a different rate.