北韓與古巴政治體制與轉型之比較研究

Abstract

為什麼北韓與古巴的統治者可以經歷二十世紀末期的民主化與所謂「第三波民主」（Third Wave Democracy）的浪潮，化解內外壓力，屹立不搖？北韓與古巴的統治體系與制度運作有何特質，讓這兩國的統治者可以牢牢地鞏固政權，而且延續家族的統治？北韓與古巴未來的政治轉型有哪些變數或面向值得注意？為探討這些問題，本文檢視若干政體分類的要點與問題，以及「顏色革命」、「茉莉花革命」的論述，採用文獻探討與訪談法，比較北韓與古巴的政治領袖與領導階層、黨國體系、意識形態、集體動員與市民社會等面向的異同，檢視各種極權主義、後極權主義等非民主國家政治體制分類的描述力與解釋力，推斷北韓與古巴民主轉型的可能性。

Why have North Korea and Cuba been able to resist pressure posed by democratization at the end of the twentieth century and the Third Wave Democracy? What are the systemic and institutional characteristics of the North Korean and Cuban ruling structures? How have the systems consolidated political power for the ruling families and the ruling class? The author explores the aforementioned questions via documentary analyses and interviews. The author highlights similarities and differences between the two non-democratic and hybrid regimes, examines the descriptive and explanatory power of typologies of totalitarianism and post-totalitarianism, and analyzes the reasoning of the “Color Revolution” and “Jasmine Revolution.” The author also discusses the possibility of democratization in North Korea and Cuba.