顛覆中國？透視「亞投行債券」與「帶路基金」

Abstract

北京倡議的「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」（簡稱：亞投行），在華府眼中，卻認為會挑戰到當今美國主導的全球經濟秩序。事實上，資本額度僅1000億美元的亞投行，無法撼動美國在全球金融政治中的主導地位。美國對亞投行戒慎恐懼，真是美元的地位受到威脅？亞投行的設立是否真能實踐人民幣國際化的目標？本文主張，中國應支持亞投行以美元發行（而非人民幣計價） 的「亞投行債券」，並同時設立「帶路基金」發行人民幣計價的「帶路基金債券」。如此，中國才得逐步降低對美國國債的過度依賴，掌握到貨幣主權，進而發展一個具深度、廣度、以及流動性的國債市場。

Beijing launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank（AIIB）in order to offer financial resources for more investments to Asian countries in need. To some extent, the US$ 100 billion AIIB is not supposed to impose any serious threat to U.S. dominance in global finance. Why does the U.S. fear the China-led AIIB? Would the establishment of AIIB speed up decline of the dollar as an international currency? Is the AIIB likely to contribute to further internationalization of the renminbi（RMB）? This paper contends that China should encourage the AIIB to issue the “AIIB bonds” denominated in dollars rather than in RMB. Meanwhile, China has to establish a Belt-Road Fund（BR Fund）that is authorized to issue RMBdenominated “BR Fund bonds”. In doing so, China may well have a chance to reduce its over-dependence on U.S. Treasury Securities, regain monetary sovereignty, and develop a sufficiently large and liquid bond market.