美中關係趨向合作因素探討—地緣政治理論觀點

Abstract

本文旨在探討後冷戰以來美中關係總體發展趨勢之理論解釋。引用「海水制止力」、「威脅平衡論」、「地理和平論」等相關地緣理論，補充說明傳統主流理論之權力解釋的不足，整合提出一結合「權力」與「地緣」兩大因素的完整分析架構，釐清美中關係「合作重於對立」的一貫性本質，再以事實資料檢驗本理論的有效性。本文共分柒節，摘要分述如下：一、前言：首先簡述後冷戰以來美中兩強競合交錯及其所衍生之爭議。二、美中關係的傳統解釋：回顧國際關係主要理論對美中關係的傳統解釋，包括了「現實主義」的權力對抗觀，以及「自由主義」的合作互賴觀，並指出二者缺乏交集，均未能給予此複合現象一個全面性的解釋。三、三個地緣理論：權力解釋觀點的缺口，使吾人有加入其他角度思考的必要。藉由介紹「海水制止力」、「威脅平衡論」、「地理和平論」三項地緣論點，認為地緣概念有助於突破上述的理論困境。四、「權力因素」結合「地緣因素」：本節根據前節提出ㄧ套整合權力與地緣觀點的次第分析架構，作為全文的核心理論。說明美中的互動同時受到權力與地緣兩大因素作用，而在後者是前者運作基礎的前提下，兩國的矛盾衝突受到地緣侷限，終究自然傾向「合作偏好」。五、美中戰略物質環境比較：本節列舉當前兩國在權力與地緣兩方面的客觀事實，確認在兩國的各項戰略物質環境條件上符合本文理論之假定。六、小布希之中國政策：透過舉證美國小布希總統新世紀以來的中國政策表現，說明其「政策宣示」與「實際操作」均呼應了本文之推論結果。七、結論：研究指出本文理論在邏輯與實證上均能取得更深入有效的解釋力，並據此對亞洲未來持以樂觀展望。

After the “cold-war,” the relationship between United States and China has been more complex and less clear cut. According to Realism, containment is the best policy choice for U.S. toward China because of their competitive nature. But in terms of the Liberalism, it is necessary for the two countries to cooperate globalization. General speaking, the U.S.-China relationship in under George W. Bush has been as peaceful and harmonious as under President William J. Clinton, even though President Bush was known as a hard-liner. Traditional theories cannot fully explain this long-term consistency of policy. This article attempts to rethink the question above with the viewpoint of geographic politics. Based on the Stopping Power of Water concept, the Pacific Ocean is a major factor in stopping any war because of cost and uncertain outcome. Further, the Pacific Ocean discourages U.S. Navy and Chinese Army from intruding the enemy theater. Thus, framed in such a manner, U.S.-China interactions are unlikely to lead to wars, but rather lead to communication and cooperation. To examine this opinion, the article lists and compares the major indicators of strategic material conditions of the U.S. and China, and found that all indicators could fit our theory. Then we checked out the China policy performance of the Bush government by examining the policy they claimed, and their actual actions. Not surprisingly, both exhibited the peaceful consecution mentioned above. The new geographic theory can provide an explanation of paradox about U.S.-China relationship between the Realism and the Liberalism.