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題名 行動電話在多國市場擴散之研究
Diffusion of Cellular Telephone on Multinational Markets
作者 黃義盛
Huang, Yi-Sheng
貢獻者 張愛華
Chang,AiHwa
黃義盛
Huang,Yi-Sheng
關鍵詞 行動電話
擴散模式
國際擴散
新產品
Cellular Telephone
Diffusion Modeling
International Diffusion
New Product
日期 1994
1993
上傳時間 29-Apr-2016 15:17:43 (UTC+8)
摘要 根據Bass(1969)擴散模式，放寬市場特性不影響創新擴散之假設，並使創\r\n新係數與模仿係數可隨著時間而改變，以行動電話為例，探討ぇ各國採用\r\n行動電話之市場潛能、市場飽和時之普及率以及單年最高採用人數出現的\r\n時間，え市場特性因素如何影響行動電話之擴散，ぉ比較各國擴散模式與\r\n多國擴散模式之解釋能力。研究結果發現：ぇ就本研究所分析的國家，各\r\n國行動電話的市場大小，以美國最大，日本次之，愛爾蘭為最小。而行動\r\n電話的最高普及率以美國與瑞典最高，超過10% ；其餘國家之最高普及率\r\n都不超過 0.4%，顯示行動電話是一種普及率較低的服務。就單年最高採\r\n用人數出現時間來看，只有日本是超過十年，其餘國家均在十年之內，甚\r\n至比利時在第二年就出現採用高峰，顯示行動電話之產品生命週期可能不\r\n是很長。え「市場需求指標」高的國家，有較高的模仿效果；「流動性」\r\n對於創新效果與模仿效果的影響均是負的；「四海胸襟」對於創新與模仿\r\n效果的影響均是正的。ぉ多國擴散模式的解釋能力較各國擴散模式佳，因\r\n此，將市場特性因素加入創新擴散模式中確實有其必要性。
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Woodlock (1960), \"Early\r\nPrediction of Market Successs for Grocery Products,\"\r\njournal of Marketing, 25 (October), 31-8.\r\n10.Gatignon, H., j. Eliashberg, and T. S. Robertson\r\n(1989), \"Modeling Multinational Diffusion Patterns:\r\nAn Efficient Methodology,\" Marketing Science, Vol. 8\r\n, No.3 (Summer), 231-47.\r\n11.Heeler, R. M. and T. P. Hustad (1980), \"Problems in\r\nPredicting New Product Growth for Consumer Durables,\"\r\nManagement Science, 26 (October), 1007-20.\r\n12.Heiscn, K., K. jedidi, and W. S. DeSarbo (1993), \"A\r\nNew Approach to Country Segmentation Utilizing\r\nMultinational Diffusion Patterns,\" journal of\r\nMarketing, Vol. 57 (October), 60-71.\r\n13.Horsky, D. (1990), ````The Effects of Income, Price and\r\nInformation on the Diffusion of New Consumer Durables,\"\r\njournal of Retailing, 63 (Fall), 243-59\r\n14.Horsky, D. and L. S. Simon (1983), \"Advertising and the\r\nDiffusion of New Product,\" Management Science, 1\r\n(Winter),l-18.\r\n1S.jain, j., V. Mahajan, and E. Muller (1991), \"Innovation\r\nDiffusion In Presence of Supply Restrictions,\"\r\nMarketing Science, Vol. 10, No.1 (Winter), 83-90.\r\n16.1ain, J. and R. C. Rao (1991), \"Effect of Price on\r\nthe Demand for Durables: Modeling, Estimation and\r\nFindings,\" 10urnal of Business and Economic\r\nStatistics, Vol. 8,163-70\r\n17.Jones, J. M. and C. J. Ritz (1991), \"Incorporating\r\nDistribution Into New Product Diffusion Models,\"\r\nInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, Vol.\r\n8, 91-112.\r\n18.Kalish, S. (1983), \"Monopolist Pricing With Dynamic\r\nDemand and Production Cost,\" Marketing Science, 2\r\n(Spr i ng), 135-60.\r\n19.Kalish, S. (1985), \"A New Product Adoption Model With\r\nPricing, Advertising and Uncertainty,\" Management\r\nScience, 31 (December), 1569-85.\r\n20.Kalish, S. and G. L. Lilien (1986), \"A Market Entry\r\nTiming Model for New Technologies,\" Management\r\nScience, 32 (February), 194-205.\r\n21 . Kamakura, W. A. and S. K. Balasubramanian (1987),\r\n\"Long-Term Forecasting With Innovation Diffusion\r\nModels: The Impact of Replacement Purchase,\" Journal\r\nof Forecasting, 6 (1), 1-19.\r\n22 . Kamakura, W. A. and S. K. Balasubramanian (1988),\r\n\"Long-Term View of the Diffusion of Durables,\"\r\nInternational Journal of Research In Marketing, 5,1-13.\r\n23.Lackman, C. L. (1978), \"Gompertz Curve Forecasting: A\r\nNew Producct Appl ication,\" Journal of Market Research\r\nSociety, 20 (January), 45-7.\r\n24.Leary, N. A. and J. Thornton (1989),\"Are Socialist\r\nIndustries Inoculated Aganist Innovation? A Case\r\nStudy of Technological Change In Steelmaking,\" Vol.\r\n31, No.2, 42-65.\r\n25.Li lien, G. L., A. G. Rao, and S. Kal ish (1981),\r\n\"Bayesian Estimation and Control of Detai ling Effort\r\nin a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Environment,\"\r\nManagement Science, 27 (May), 493-506.\r\n26.Mahajan, V., E. Muller, and F. M. Bass (1990), \"New\r\nProduct Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and\r\nDirections for Research,\" Journal of Marketing, 54\r\n(January), 1-26.\r\n27.Mahajan, V., E. Muller, and R. A. Kerin (1984),\r\n\"Introduction Strategy for New Products With Positive\r\nand Negative Word-of-Mouth,\" Management Science,30\r\n(December), 1389-404.\r\n28 .Mahajan, V., E. Muller, and S. Sharma (1984), \"An\r\nEmpirical Comparison of Awareness Forecasting Models\r\nof New Product Acceptance,\" Marketing Science, 3\r\n(Summer), 179-97.\r\n29.Mahajan, V. and R. A. Peterson (1978), \"Innovation\r\nDiffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population,\"\r\nManagement Sc i ence, 24 (November), 1589-97.\r\n30.Mahajan, V. and R. A. Peterson (1979), \"Integrating\r\nTime and Space in Technological Substitution Models,\"\r\nTechnological Forecasting and Social Change, 14\r\n(August), 231-41.\r\n31.Mahajan, V., Y. Wind, and S. Sharma (1983), \"An\r\nApproach to Repeat Purchase Diffusion Models,\" AMA\r\nProceeding, Series 49, Patrick E. Murphy et al., eds.\r\nChicago: American Marketing Association, 442-6 .\r\n32.Mansfield, E. (1961), \"Technical Change and the Rate\r\nof Imitation,\" Econometrica, 29 (October), 741-66.\r\n33.Midgley, D. F. (1976), \"A Simple Mathematical Theory\r\nof Innovation Behavior,\" Journal of Consumer Research\r\n, 3 (June), 31-41.\r\n34.Norton, J. A. and F. M. Bass (1987), \"A Diffusion\r\nTheory Model of Adoption and Substitution for\r\nSuccessive Generation of High Technology Product,\"\r\nManagement Science, 33 (September), 1069-86.\r\n35.0Ison, J. A. and S. Choi (1985), \"A Product Diffusion\r\nModel Incorporating Repeat Purchase,\" Technological\r\nForecasting and Social Change, 27, 385-97.\r\n36.Peterson, R. A. and V. Mahajan (1978), \"Multi- Product\r\nGrowth Models,\" in Research in Marketing,J. Sheth, ed.\r\nGreenwich, CT:JAI Press, Inc., 201-31.\r\n37 Robertson, T. S. (1967), \"Determinants of Innovative\r\nBehavior,\" in Proceedings of the American Marketing\r\nAssociation, R. Moyer, ed. Chicago: American\r\nMarketing Association, 328-32.\r\n38.Robinson, B. and C. Lakhani (1975), \"Dynamic Price\r\nModels for New Product Planning,\" Management Science,\r\n10 (June), 1113-22.\r\n39.Rogers, E. M. (1983), Diffusion of Innovations, 3rd\r\ned. New York: The Free Press.\r\n40.Romeo, A. (1975), IIInter-industry and Inter-firm\r\nDifferences in the Rate of Diffusion,1I Review of\r\nEconomics and Statistics, Vol. 57, 311-9.\r\n41.Schmittlein, D. C. and V. Mahajan (1982), \"Maximum\r\nLikelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion\r\nModel of New Product Acceptance,\" Marketing Science,\r\n1 (Winter), 57-78.\r\n4 2 . Sh a r if, M. N . and K. Ram a nat han (1 981), \" B i noma i I\r\nInnovation Diffusion Models With Dynamic Potential\r\nAdopter Population,\" Technological Forecasting and\r\nSocial Change, 20, 63-87.\r\n43.Sharif, M. N. and K. Ramanathan (1982), IIPolynomial\r\nInnovation Diffusion Models,\" Technological\r\nForecasting and Social Change, 21, 301-23.\r\n44.Silk, A. J. (1966), \"Overlap Among Self-Designated\r\nOpinion Leaders: A Study of Selected Dental Products\r\nand Services,\" Journal of Marketing Research, 3\r\n(Augus t), 255-9 .\r\n45 .Simon, Herman and Karl-Heinz Sebastian (1987),\r\n\"Diffusion and Advertising: The German Telephone\r\nCompany,\" Management Science, 33 (April), 451-66.\r\n46 .Srinivasan, V. ande. H. Mason (1986), \"Nonlinear\r\nLeast Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion\r\nModels,\" Marketing Science, 5 (Spring), 169-78.\r\n47.Srivastava, R. K., V. Mahajan, S. N. Ramaswami, and J.\r\nCherian (1985), \"A Multi-Attribute Diffusion Model for\r\nForecasting the Adoption of Investment Alternative for\r\nConsumer,\" Technological Fortecasting and Social\r\nChange, 28 (December), 325-33.\r\n48.Tornatzky, L. C. and R. 1. Klein (1982), \"Innovation\r\nCharacteristics and Innovation Adoption-Implementation\r\n: A Meta-Analysis of Findings,\" IEEE Transactions on\r\nEngineering Management, EM-29, 28-45.\r\n49.YoLlnkin, N. K. (1992), Modeling Int ernational Product\r\nDiffusion, Ph.D. Dissertation of University of\r\nI I I inois at Chicago.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
81351019
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003786
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張愛華zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chang,AiHwaen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃義盛zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Huang,Yi-Shengen_US
dc.creator (作者) 黃義盛zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Huang, Yi-Shengen_US
dc.date (日期) 1994en_US
dc.date (日期) 1993en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-Apr-2016 15:17:43 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-Apr-2016 15:17:43 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Apr-2016 15:17:43 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002003786en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=100183-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 81351019zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 根據Bass(1969)擴散模式，放寬市場特性不影響創新擴散之假設，並使創\r\n新係數與模仿係數可隨著時間而改變，以行動電話為例，探討ぇ各國採用\r\n行動電話之市場潛能、市場飽和時之普及率以及單年最高採用人數出現的\r\n時間，え市場特性因素如何影響行動電話之擴散，ぉ比較各國擴散模式與\r\n多國擴散模式之解釋能力。研究結果發現：ぇ就本研究所分析的國家，各\r\n國行動電話的市場大小，以美國最大，日本次之，愛爾蘭為最小。而行動\r\n電話的最高普及率以美國與瑞典最高，超過10% ；其餘國家之最高普及率\r\n都不超過 0.4%，顯示行動電話是一種普及率較低的服務。就單年最高採\r\n用人數出現時間來看，只有日本是超過十年，其餘國家均在十年之內，甚\r\n至比利時在第二年就出現採用高峰，顯示行動電話之產品生命週期可能不\r\n是很長。え「市場需求指標」高的國家，有較高的模仿效果；「流動性」\r\n對於創新效果與模仿效果的影響均是負的；「四海胸襟」對於創新與模仿\r\n效果的影響均是正的。ぉ多國擴散模式的解釋能力較各國擴散模式佳，因\r\n此，將市場特性因素加入創新擴散模式中確實有其必要性。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 論文摘要 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ⅰ\r\n目錄 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ⅱ\r\n圖表目錄 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ⅳ\r\n\r\n第一章 緒論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . １\r\n第一節 研究動機. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . １\r\n第二節 研究目的. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .２\r\n第三節 本文架構. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .２\r\n\r\n第二章 文獻探討. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .４\r\n第一節 基本擴散模式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .４\r\n第二節 Bass(1969)模式的修正與擴展. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . １１\r\n第三節 國內之相關研究. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .２５\r\n第四節 國際擴散模式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .３１\r\n第五節 參數估計方式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .３６\r\n\r\n第三章 研究設計. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .４５\r\n第一節 研究架構. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .４５\r\n第二節 模式建立. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .４７\r\n第三節 分析程序與方法. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .５１\r\n\r\n第四章 實證分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .５８\r\n第一節 國際行動電話市場. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .５８\r\n第二節 資料說明. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .６０\r\n第三節 各國擴散模式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .６５\r\n第四節 多國擴散模式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .７０\r\n第五節 擴散模式之市場描述. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .８３\r\n第六節 擴散模式之比較. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .８８\r\n\r\n第五章 結論與建議. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .９６\r\n第一節 研究發現與管理涵義. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .９６\r\n第二節 研究限制. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .９８\r\n第三節 後續研究建議. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .９９\r\n\r\n\r\n參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .１０１zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003786en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 行動電話zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 擴散模式zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際擴散zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新產品zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cellular Telephoneen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Diffusion Modelingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) International Diffusionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) New Producten_US
dc.title (題名) 行動電話在多國市場擴散之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Diffusion of Cellular Telephone on Multinational Marketsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
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