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題名 來華觀光旅客需求預測模式建立之研究
Construction of Forecasting Models for Tourists Coming to R.O.C.
作者 時巧煒
Shih, Chiao Wei
貢獻者 鄭天澤
Cheng, Tien Tse
時巧煒
Shih, Chiao Wei
關鍵詞 觀光事業
預測模式
時間序列模式
計量經濟模式
Tourism Industry
Forecasting Model
Time Series Model
Econometric Model
日期 1994
1993
上傳時間 29-Apr-2016 15:30:55 (UTC+8)
摘要 觀光事業素有無煙囪工業之稱，自政府於民國四十八年全力推動發展以來
參考文獻 行政院主計處(民82-83),國民經濟動向統計季報.
行政院主計處(民69-82),中華民國統計月報.
交通部觀光局(民69-83),觀光資料.
吳柏林等(民81),”台灣地區外籍觀光旅客人數預測模式之探討”,第二屆統計模
式與預測系列演講,政大應數所.
徐守德,李鎮旗(民83),”企業銷售預測之方法與實證研究-以台電公司為例”,管
理評論,第13卷,第一期,23-56.
陳敦基(民80),"來華觀光旅客之需求特性與時間序列分析”,民國80年觀光事業
發展學術研討會論文集.
陳敦基(民82),來華與出國觀光旅客人數預測模式建立之研究,交通部,
觀光局委託研究報告.


Abraham, B. and Ledolter, J. (1983), Statistical Methods for Forecasting, New York: John Wiley.
Brown, R. G. (1962), Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Calantone, R.J., Di Benedetto, C.A. and Bojanic,D.(1987),”A Comprehensive Review of The Tourism Forecasting Literature”, Journal of Travel Research, 26(3), 28-39.
Cryer, J. D. (1987), Time Series Analysis, 1st ed, Boston: Duxbury Press.
Fritz, R. G., Brandon C. and Xander, J. (1984), “Combining Time-Series and Econometric Forecast of Tourism Activity”, Annals of Tourism Research, 11, 219-229.
Madansky, A. (1988), Prescriptions for working Statisticians, New York: Spring-Verlag.
Makridakis, S. and Winkler, R. L. (1983), “Average of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results”, Management Science, 29(9), 987-996.
Martin, C. A. and Witt, S. F. (1988), “Substitute Prices in Models of Tourism Dmand”,Annals of Tourism Research, 15, 255-268.
Martin, C.A. and Witt, S.F. (1989a), “Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Comparison of the Accurary of Several Quantitative Methods”, International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 7-19.
Martin, C.A. and Witt, S. F. (1989b), “Accurary of Econometric Forecasts of Tourism”, Annals of Tourism Research, 16, 407-428.
Neter, J., Wasserman, W. and Kutner, M. H. (1985), Applied linear statistical models, 2nd ed, USA: Richard D. Irwin, Inc.
SAS Institute, Inc. (1988), SAS/ETS User’s Guide, Cary, NC.
SAS Institute,Inc.(1988), SAS/STAT User’s Guide, Cary, NC.
Sheldon, P. J. and Var, T. (1985), “Tourism forecasting:A Review of Empirical Research”, Journal of Forecasting, 4(2), 183-195.
Uysal, M. and Crompton, J. L. (1984), “Determinants of Demand for International Tourist Flows to Turkey”, Tourism Management, 5(4), 288-297.
Vandaele, W. (1983), Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, New York:Academic Press, Inc.
Wei, Willian. W. S. (1990), Time Series Analysis-Univariate and Multivariate Methods, New York : Addison-Wesley.
Witt, C. A. and Witt, S. F. (1990), “Appraising An Economic Forecasting Model”, Journal of Travel Research, 29(4), 30-34.
Witt, S.F. and Martin, C. A. (1987), “Econometric Models for Forecasting International Tourism Demand”, Journal of Travel Research, 26(4), 23-30.
Witt, S.F., Newbould, G.D. and Watkins, A.J. (1992), “Forecasting Domestic Tourism Demand: Application to Las Vegas Arrivals Data”, Journal of Travel research, 36-41.
Witt, S.F. and Witt, C. A. (1991), “Tourism Forecasting: Error Magnitude, Direction of Change Error, and Trend Change Error”, Journal of Travel Research, 30(3), 26-33.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
統計學系
81354008
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003823
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 鄭天澤zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Cheng, Tien Tseen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 時巧煒zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Shih, Chiao Weien_US
dc.creator (作者) 時巧煒zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Shih, Chiao Weien_US
dc.date (日期) 1994en_US
dc.date (日期) 1993en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-Apr-2016 15:30:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-Apr-2016 15:30:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Apr-2016 15:30:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002003823en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/88355-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 統計學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 81354008zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 觀光事業素有無煙囪工業之稱，自政府於民國四十八年全力推動發展以來zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 1. 緒論
1.1 研究動機與目的………………………………………………………………………………….……1
1.2 文獻回顧………………………………………………………………………………………….….……1

2. 需求預測模式理論
2.1 影響觀光需求因素之探討………………………………………………………………….……3
2.2 短期需求預測模式
2.2.1 簡算法……………………………………………………………………………………..……4
2.2.2 單變量時間序列模式……………………………………………………………………5
2.2.3 轉移函數模式……………………………………………………………………….………7
2.3 長期需求預測模式
2.3.1 時間趨勢模式……………………….………………………………………………………7
2.3.2 指數平滑法……………………………………………………………………………………8
2.3.3 計量經濟模式………………………………………………………………………….……9
2.4 整合預測模式……………………………………………………………..…………………………11
2.5 模式選取及預測能力評估準則
2.5.1 模式選取準則……………………………………………..………………………………11
2.5.2 模式預測能力評估………………………………………..……………………………12

3. 來華觀光旅客需求預測分析
3.1 總體市場…………………………………………………………………………………………………14
3.2 亞洲市場
3.2.1 東南亞地區…………………………………………………………………………………27
3.2.2 日本………………………………………………………………………….…………………38
3.2.3 韓國………………………………………………………………………….…………………55
3.3 歐洲市場
3.3.1 歐洲地區………………………………………………………………...…………………76
3.3.2 英國……………………………………………………………………………………………88
3.3.3 德國………………………………………………………………….………………………106
3.3.4 法國…………………………………………………………………..…………………………123
3.4 美國市場…………………………………………………………………………..…………………140

4. 結論與後續研究…………………………………………………………………………………………158
5. 參考文獻…………………………………………………………………………………………………….162
6. 附錄…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….165		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003823en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 觀光事業zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測模式zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 時間序列模式zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 計量經濟模式zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tourism Industryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Forecasting Modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Time Series Modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Econometric Modelen_US
dc.title (題名) 來華觀光旅客需求預測模式建立之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Construction of Forecasting Models for Tourists Coming to R.O.C.en_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 行政院主計處(民82-83),國民經濟動向統計季報.
行政院主計處(民69-82),中華民國統計月報.
交通部觀光局(民69-83),觀光資料.
吳柏林等(民81),”台灣地區外籍觀光旅客人數預測模式之探討”,第二屆統計模
式與預測系列演講,政大應數所.
徐守德,李鎮旗(民83),”企業銷售預測之方法與實證研究-以台電公司為例”,管
理評論,第13卷,第一期,23-56.
陳敦基(民80),"來華觀光旅客之需求特性與時間序列分析”,民國80年觀光事業
發展學術研討會論文集.
陳敦基(民82),來華與出國觀光旅客人數預測模式建立之研究,交通部,
觀光局委託研究報告.


Abraham, B. and Ledolter, J. (1983), Statistical Methods for Forecasting, New York: John Wiley.
Brown, R. G. (1962), Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Calantone, R.J., Di Benedetto, C.A. and Bojanic,D.(1987),”A Comprehensive Review of The Tourism Forecasting Literature”, Journal of Travel Research, 26(3), 28-39.
Cryer, J. D. (1987), Time Series Analysis, 1st ed, Boston: Duxbury Press.
Fritz, R. G., Brandon C. and Xander, J. (1984), “Combining Time-Series and Econometric Forecast of Tourism Activity”, Annals of Tourism Research, 11, 219-229.
Madansky, A. (1988), Prescriptions for working Statisticians, New York: Spring-Verlag.
Makridakis, S. and Winkler, R. L. (1983), “Average of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results”, Management Science, 29(9), 987-996.
Martin, C. A. and Witt, S. F. (1988), “Substitute Prices in Models of Tourism Dmand”,Annals of Tourism Research, 15, 255-268.
Martin, C.A. and Witt, S.F. (1989a), “Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Comparison of the Accurary of Several Quantitative Methods”, International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 7-19.
Martin, C.A. and Witt, S. F. (1989b), “Accurary of Econometric Forecasts of Tourism”, Annals of Tourism Research, 16, 407-428.
Neter, J., Wasserman, W. and Kutner, M. H. (1985), Applied linear statistical models, 2nd ed, USA: Richard D. Irwin, Inc.
SAS Institute, Inc. (1988), SAS/ETS User’s Guide, Cary, NC.
SAS Institute,Inc.(1988), SAS/STAT User’s Guide, Cary, NC.
Sheldon, P. J. and Var, T. (1985), “Tourism forecasting:A Review of Empirical Research”, Journal of Forecasting, 4(2), 183-195.
Uysal, M. and Crompton, J. L. (1984), “Determinants of Demand for International Tourist Flows to Turkey”, Tourism Management, 5(4), 288-297.
Vandaele, W. (1983), Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, New York:Academic Press, Inc.
Wei, Willian. W. S. (1990), Time Series Analysis-Univariate and Multivariate Methods, New York : Addison-Wesley.
Witt, C. A. and Witt, S. F. (1990), “Appraising An Economic Forecasting Model”, Journal of Travel Research, 29(4), 30-34.
Witt, S.F. and Martin, C. A. (1987), “Econometric Models for Forecasting International Tourism Demand”, Journal of Travel Research, 26(4), 23-30.
Witt, S.F., Newbould, G.D. and Watkins, A.J. (1992), “Forecasting Domestic Tourism Demand: Application to Las Vegas Arrivals Data”, Journal of Travel research, 36-41.
Witt, S.F. and Witt, C. A. (1991), “Tourism Forecasting: Error Magnitude, Direction of Change Error, and Trend Change Error”, Journal of Travel Research, 30(3), 26-33.		zh_TW