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題名 過度自信的研究：問題、困難度、抽樣方式與線索有效性對過度自信的影響。
作者 彭兆禎
貢獻者 顏乃欣
彭兆禎
關鍵詞 過度自信 　　　
問題
困難度
抽樣方式
線索
日期 1993
上傳時間 29-Apr-2016 16:40:15 (UTC+8)
摘要 有關主觀機率判斷的心理學研究發現，人們判斷的品質通常並不佳，而普
參考文獻 Adam, J. K. ,&Adams, P.A.(1961).Realism of confidence judgments. Psycholoical Review,68,33-45.\r\nAdam,P.A. ,&Adams,J.K.(1958). Training in confidence judgments. American Journal of Psychology,1985,71,747-751.\r\nAllwood, C. M. ,&Montgomery,H.(1987). Response selection strategies and realism of confidence judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Proce-sses,39,365-383.\r\nArkes,H. R. , Christensen,C. , Lai,C., &Blumer,C.(1987). Two methods of reducing overconfidence. Organi-zational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,39,133-144.\r\n\r\nAxel,C. S. ,&Holstein,S.(1972). Probabilistic forecasting : An experiment related to the stock market. Organ-izational Behavior and Human Performance,8,139-158.\r\nBrier,G. W.(1950). Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability.Monthly Weather Review,75,1-3.\r\nBrown,T. A. ,&Shufors,E. H. (1973). Quantifying uncertainty into numerical probabilities for the reporting of intelligence(Report R-1185-ARPA). Santa Monica: The RAND Corp.\r\nBrunswik,E.(1943). Qrganismic achievement and environ-mental prabability.The Psychological Review,50,255-272.\r\nBrunswik,E.(1964). Scope and as pects of the cognitive problem. In Contemporary approaches to cognition (pp.4-31). Cambrige,MA: Harvard University Press.\r\nBrunswik,E.(1955). Symposium on the probability approch in psychology: Representative design and probabilis-tic theory in a functional psychology.Psychological Review,62,193-217.\r\nChoo,G.T.G(1976).Training and generalization in asse-ssment probabilities for Organisation and Social Studies.\r\nDawes,R. M, (1980). Confidence in intellectual judgmentsvs. Confidence in perceptual judgments. In: E. D. Lant-ermann and H. Feger(Eds.),Similarity and cholice. Vienna: Hans Huber.\r\nEinhorn,H. ,&Hogarth,R.M.(1978). Confidence in judgment : Persistence of the illusion of validity.Psychologi-cal review,85,395-416.\r\nFischhoff,B.(1982). Debiasing. In D.Kahneman,P.Slovic,& A. Tversky(Eds.),Judgment under uncertainty : Heu-ristics and biases(pp.422-444). New York: Cambrige University. Press.\r\nFischhoff,B. ,Slovic,P.(1980). A little learning...: Confidence in multicue judgment. In R. Nickers on (Ed.),Attention and Performance VI II.Hillsdale, N. J.:Erlbaum.\r\nFischhoff,B., Slovic,p.,&Lichtenstein,S.(1977).Know-ing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology,3,552-564.\r\nGigerenzer,G.,Hoffrage, U.,&Kleinbolting,H.(1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psycological Review,48,506-528.\r\nGriffin,D. G. ,&Tversky,A.(1992). The weighting of e-vidence and the determinants of confidence. Cog-nitive Psychology,24,411-435.\r\nKahneman,D. ,&Tversky, A.(1972). Subjective probablity: A judgment of representativeness. Cogntive Psy-chology, 3,430-454.\r\nKahneman,D. ,&Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review,80,237-251.\r\n\r\nKeren,G.(1987). Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study. Organizeational Be-havior and Human Decision Processes,39,98-114.\r\nKeren,G.(1988). On the ability of monitoring non-veridical perceptions and uncertain knoweledge:Some calibration studies. Acta Psychologica,67,95-119.\r\nKoriat, A., Lichtenstein, S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1980). Rea-sons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psy-chology: Human Learning and Memory,6,107-118.\r\nLa Rochefoucauld,F.(1959). The maxims of La Rochefou-cauld(L. Kronenberger. Trans.). New York: Random House.\r\nLi chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1977).Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?. Or-ganizational Behavior and Human Performance,20,159-183.\r\nLi chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1980a). How well do pro-bability experts assess probability?(Decision re-search of Report 80-5). Eugent, Oreg.:Decision Re-search.\r\nLi chtenstein,S.,&Fischoff,B.(1980b). Training for cal-ibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Perfor-mance,26,149-171.\r\nLi chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1981). The effects of gender and instructions on calibration(Decision Research Report 81-5). Eugent, Oreg.: Decision Re-search.\r\nLi chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.&Phillips,L.D.(1982). Calibration of probability: The state of the art to 1980. In D. Kahneman,P. Slovic,&A. Tversty(Eds.),Judg-ment under uncertainty: Heuristics and bias(pp. 306-334). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.\r\nMayseless,O.,&Kruglanski, A. W.(1987). What makes your so sure?Effects of epistemic motivation on judgmental confidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Deci-sion Process,39,162-183.\r\nMurphy,A.H.(1973). A new vector partition of the pro-bability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology,12,595-600.\r\nMurphy,A.H.,&Winkler, R.L.(1971). Forecasters and pro-bability forecasts: some current problem. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Socity,52,239-247.\r\nOskamp,S.(1962). How clinicians make decisions from MMPI : An empirical study. Paper presented at the American Psychology Association, St. Louis. \r\nOskamp,S.(1965). Overconfidence in case-studey judgments. The Journal of Consulting Psychology, 29, 261-265.\r\nPhillips,L.D.,&Edward,W. (1966). Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. Journal of Experimental Psychology,72,345-354.\r\nPitz,G.F.(1974). Subjective probability distribution for imperfectly knwo quantities. In L. W. Gregg(Ed.),Know-ledge and cognition. New York: Wiley.\r\n\r\nReed,S.K. (1972). Pattern recognition and categoriza-tion. Cognitive Psychology,3,382-407.\r\nRonis, D. L. , &Yetes,J.F.(1987). Components of probabi-lity judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method. Organizational Behavior and Decision Pro-cesses,40,193-218.\r\nSieber,J.E.(1974). Effects of decision importance on ability to generate warranted subjective uncer-tainty. Journal of Personality and Social Psycho-logy,30,688-694.\r\nSlovic,P.(1972). From Shakespeare to Simon: Specula-tions-and some evidence-about man’s ability to process information. Oregon Research Institute Monography,12,2.\r\nTaylor,S.E.,&Brown,J.D.(1988). Illusion and well-being :A social psychology perspective on mental health. Psychological Bulletin,103,193-210.\r\nTversky,A.,&Kahneman,D.(1973). Availability: a heuri-stic for judging frequencey and probability. Cog-nitive Psychology,5,207-232.\r\nTversky, A.,&Kahneman,D.(1974). Judgment under uncer-tainy: Heuristic and Biases. Science,185,1124-1131.\r\nWright,G.(1982). Changes in the realism and distribu-tion of probability assessments as a function of question type. Acta Psychologica,52,165-174.\r\nWright,G.,&Phillips,L.D.(1976). Personality and proba-bilistic thinking: An experimental study(Tech. Rep. 76-3). Uxbrige, England: Brunel Institute of Organisa-tional and Social Studies. \r\nWright,G.,Phillips,L.D.,Whalley,P.C.,Choo,G.T.T.,Ng, K.o.,Tan,I.,&Wisudha,A.(1978). Culture differences in probabilistic thinking. Journal of Cross-cultural Psychology,9,285-299.\r\nWright, G. N. ,&Wisudha, A.(1982).Distributionof proba-bility assessments for almanac and future event questions. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology,23,219-224.\r\nYates,J.F.(1990). Judgment and Decision Making. Engle-wood Cliffs,NJ:Prentice-Hall.\r\nYates,J.F.,Lee,J.W.,Shinotsuka,H.,Yen,N.S.,Singh,R.,Onglatco, M.L.U.,Gupta,M.,&Bhatnagar,D.(1991). The origins of Asian versus Western difference in pro-bability judgment accuracy patterns. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Social for Judgment and Decision Making. San Francisco, CA, U. S. A.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
心理學系
795910
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004026
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 顏乃欣zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 彭兆禎zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 彭兆禎zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 1993en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-Apr-2016 16:40:15 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-Apr-2016 16:40:15 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Apr-2016 16:40:15 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002004026en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=100810-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 心理學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 795910zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 有關主觀機率判斷的心理學研究發現，人們判斷的品質通常並不佳，而普zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒1\r\n第一節 文獻探討﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒4\r\n第二節 研究問題﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒46\r\n\r\n第二章 實驗一﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒47\r\n第一節 研究方法﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒48\r\n第二節 結果﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒56\r\n第三節 討論﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒64\r\n\r\n第三章 實驗二﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒66\r\n第一節 研究方法﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒67\r\n第二節 結果﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒74\r\n第三節 討論﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒79\r\n\r\n第四章 實驗三﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒82\r\n第一節 研究方法﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒83\r\n第二節 結果﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒91\r\n第三節 討論﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒97\r\n\r\n第五章 綜合討論與建議﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒99\r\n第一節 綜合討論﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒99\r\n第二節 檢討與建議﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒106\r\n\r\n參考文獻﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒108\r\n\r\n附錄﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒﹒115zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004026en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 過度自信 　　　zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 問題zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 困難度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 抽樣方式zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 線索zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 過度自信的研究：問題、困難度、抽樣方式與線索有效性對過度自信的影響。zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Adam, J. K. ,&Adams, P.A.(1961).Realism of confidence judgments. Psycholoical Review,68,33-45.\r\nAdam,P.A. ,&Adams,J.K.(1958). Training in confidence judgments. American Journal of Psychology,1985,71,747-751.\r\nAllwood, C. M. ,&Montgomery,H.(1987). Response selection strategies and realism of confidence judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Proce-sses,39,365-383.\r\nArkes,H. R. , Christensen,C. , Lai,C., &Blumer,C.(1987). Two methods of reducing overconfidence. Organi-zational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,39,133-144.\r\n\r\nAxel,C. S. ,&Holstein,S.(1972). Probabilistic forecasting : An experiment related to the stock market. Organ-izational Behavior and Human Performance,8,139-158.\r\nBrier,G. W.(1950). Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability.Monthly Weather Review,75,1-3.\r\nBrown,T. A. ,&Shufors,E. H. (1973). Quantifying uncertainty into numerical probabilities for the reporting of intelligence(Report R-1185-ARPA). Santa Monica: The RAND Corp.\r\nBrunswik,E.(1943). Qrganismic achievement and environ-mental prabability.The Psychological Review,50,255-272.\r\nBrunswik,E.(1964). Scope and as pects of the cognitive problem. In Contemporary approaches to cognition (pp.4-31). Cambrige,MA: Harvard University Press.\r\nBrunswik,E.(1955). Symposium on the probability approch in psychology: Representative design and probabilis-tic theory in a functional psychology.Psychological Review,62,193-217.\r\nChoo,G.T.G(1976).Training and generalization in asse-ssment probabilities for Organisation and Social Studies.\r\nDawes,R. M, (1980). Confidence in intellectual judgmentsvs. Confidence in perceptual judgments. In: E. D. Lant-ermann and H. Feger(Eds.),Similarity and cholice. Vienna: Hans Huber.\r\nEinhorn,H. ,&Hogarth,R.M.(1978). Confidence in judgment : Persistence of the illusion of validity.Psychologi-cal review,85,395-416.\r\nFischhoff,B.(1982). Debiasing. In D.Kahneman,P.Slovic,& A. Tversky(Eds.),Judgment under uncertainty : Heu-ristics and biases(pp.422-444). New York: Cambrige University. Press.\r\nFischhoff,B. ,Slovic,P.(1980). A little learning...: Confidence in multicue judgment. In R. Nickers on (Ed.),Attention and Performance VI II.Hillsdale, N. J.:Erlbaum.\r\nFischhoff,B., Slovic,p.,&Lichtenstein,S.(1977).Know-ing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology,3,552-564.\r\nGigerenzer,G.,Hoffrage, U.,&Kleinbolting,H.(1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psycological Review,48,506-528.\r\nGriffin,D. G. ,&Tversky,A.(1992). The weighting of e-vidence and the determinants of confidence. Cog-nitive Psychology,24,411-435.\r\nKahneman,D. ,&Tversky, A.(1972). Subjective probablity: A judgment of representativeness. Cogntive Psy-chology, 3,430-454.\r\nKahneman,D. ,&Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review,80,237-251.\r\n\r\nKeren,G.(1987). Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study. Organizeational Be-havior and Human Decision Processes,39,98-114.\r\nKeren,G.(1988). On the ability of monitoring non-veridical perceptions and uncertain knoweledge:Some calibration studies. Acta Psychologica,67,95-119.\r\nKoriat, A., Lichtenstein, S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1980). Rea-sons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psy-chology: Human Learning and Memory,6,107-118.\r\nLa Rochefoucauld,F.(1959). The maxims of La Rochefou-cauld(L. Kronenberger. Trans.). New York: Random House.\r\nLi chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1977).Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?. Or-ganizational Behavior and Human Performance,20,159-183.\r\nLi chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1980a). How well do pro-bability experts assess probability?(Decision re-search of Report 80-5). Eugent, Oreg.:Decision Re-search.\r\nLi chtenstein,S.,&Fischoff,B.(1980b). Training for cal-ibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Perfor-mance,26,149-171.\r\nLi chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.(1981). The effects of gender and instructions on calibration(Decision Research Report 81-5). Eugent, Oreg.: Decision Re-search.\r\nLi chtenstein,S.,&Fischhoff,B.&Phillips,L.D.(1982). Calibration of probability: The state of the art to 1980. In D. Kahneman,P. Slovic,&A. Tversty(Eds.),Judg-ment under uncertainty: Heuristics and bias(pp. 306-334). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.\r\nMayseless,O.,&Kruglanski, A. W.(1987). What makes your so sure?Effects of epistemic motivation on judgmental confidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Deci-sion Process,39,162-183.\r\nMurphy,A.H.(1973). A new vector partition of the pro-bability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology,12,595-600.\r\nMurphy,A.H.,&Winkler, R.L.(1971). Forecasters and pro-bability forecasts: some current problem. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Socity,52,239-247.\r\nOskamp,S.(1962). How clinicians make decisions from MMPI : An empirical study. Paper presented at the American Psychology Association, St. Louis. \r\nOskamp,S.(1965). Overconfidence in case-studey judgments. The Journal of Consulting Psychology, 29, 261-265.\r\nPhillips,L.D.,&Edward,W. (1966). Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. Journal of Experimental Psychology,72,345-354.\r\nPitz,G.F.(1974). Subjective probability distribution for imperfectly knwo quantities. In L. W. Gregg(Ed.),Know-ledge and cognition. New York: Wiley.\r\n\r\nReed,S.K. (1972). Pattern recognition and categoriza-tion. Cognitive Psychology,3,382-407.\r\nRonis, D. L. , &Yetes,J.F.(1987). Components of probabi-lity judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method. Organizational Behavior and Decision Pro-cesses,40,193-218.\r\nSieber,J.E.(1974). Effects of decision importance on ability to generate warranted subjective uncer-tainty. Journal of Personality and Social Psycho-logy,30,688-694.\r\nSlovic,P.(1972). From Shakespeare to Simon: Specula-tions-and some evidence-about man’s ability to process information. Oregon Research Institute Monography,12,2.\r\nTaylor,S.E.,&Brown,J.D.(1988). Illusion and well-being :A social psychology perspective on mental health. Psychological Bulletin,103,193-210.\r\nTversky,A.,&Kahneman,D.(1973). Availability: a heuri-stic for judging frequencey and probability. Cog-nitive Psychology,5,207-232.\r\nTversky, A.,&Kahneman,D.(1974). Judgment under uncer-tainy: Heuristic and Biases. Science,185,1124-1131.\r\nWright,G.(1982). Changes in the realism and distribu-tion of probability assessments as a function of question type. Acta Psychologica,52,165-174.\r\nWright,G.,&Phillips,L.D.(1976). Personality and proba-bilistic thinking: An experimental study(Tech. Rep. 76-3). Uxbrige, England: Brunel Institute of Organisa-tional and Social Studies. \r\nWright,G.,Phillips,L.D.,Whalley,P.C.,Choo,G.T.T.,Ng, K.o.,Tan,I.,&Wisudha,A.(1978). Culture differences in probabilistic thinking. Journal of Cross-cultural Psychology,9,285-299.\r\nWright, G. N. ,&Wisudha, A.(1982).Distributionof proba-bility assessments for almanac and future event questions. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology,23,219-224.\r\nYates,J.F.(1990). Judgment and Decision Making. Engle-wood Cliffs,NJ:Prentice-Hall.\r\nYates,J.F.,Lee,J.W.,Shinotsuka,H.,Yen,N.S.,Singh,R.,Onglatco, M.L.U.,Gupta,M.,&Bhatnagar,D.(1991). The origins of Asian versus Western difference in pro-bability judgment accuracy patterns. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Social for Judgment and Decision Making. San Francisco, CA, U. S. A.zh_TW