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題名 耐久性消費品新品牌競爭性行銷策略選擇之實例研究
Competitive Marketing Decision Study for New Durable Consumer Product
作者 陳朝福
Chen, Shao-Fu
貢獻者 洪順慶
Horng, Shun-Ching
陳朝福
Chen, Shao-Fu
關鍵詞 行銷管理
行銷模擬
決策支援系統
蒙特卡羅模擬法
新產品策略
Marketing management
Marketing simulation
Decision support system
Monte Carlo Simulation
日期 1992
上傳時間 2-May-2016 13:23:45 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究以過去類似研究的發展經驗為基礎，參照國內企業界的特殊決策環境及決策型態，並考量行銷問題的特質，建立一套整合性行銷系統模擬架構( 以蒙特卡羅模擬法為基本架構，以行銷系統模式為核心 )，協助決策者評估╱選擇新產品上市時之最適競爭性行銷策略，以提高新產品上市後的成功率。本研究從決策者立場的角度來建構整個架構，採用「互動式漸進法」讓決策者能共同參與模式之建構，並透過「結構式詢問法」輸入資料卷協助決策者在問題答覆的過程中，將系統行為的隱性心智模式轉化成顯性數理模式，使本模擬架構能成為實用的電腦輔助工具，縮短行銷科學與行銷實務的距離。本研究在國內行銷實務及學術界中尚屬較新的嚐試，
參考文獻 一.中文部份
1.鄭振明. (民80) .廣告決策支援立在統之研究，中山企管研究所論文。
2. 潘銘雄. (民81 ) .銷售反應系統之建構、使用興決策績效之衡量，政大企管研究所論文。
3. 高仲炯，李坤清. (民80. 十月) .我國企業策略電腦化調查分析--決策支援系統運用有待加強，資訊傳真雜誌。
二、英文部份
1.Alberts, Willian W. (1989), "The Experience Curve Doctrine Reconsidered," Journal of Marketing, Vol. 53 (July), pp. 36-49.
2.Bass,F. (1969),"A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables," Management Science, Vol.15 (January),pp.215-227.
3.Bell,D. E., Ralph L. Keeney, and J. D. C. Little (1975),"A Market Share Theorem," Journal of Marketing Research, Vo1.12 , pp. 136-141.
4.Boston Consulting Group (1970) ,Perspectives on Experience, Boston: Authors.
5.Booz,Allen and Hamilton (1981), New Products Management for the 1980 : phase I, Chicago
6.Ching-cha Hsieh, Ming-te Lu, and Chien-chun Pan (1992),"Current Status of DSS use in Taiwan, "Information & Management 22,pp.199-206.
7.Clarke D. G., "Marketing analysis and Decision Making: Text and Cases with Lotus 1-2-3 ," The Scientific Press,1987.
8.Cooper,Lee G. and Masao Nakanishi (1983), Market-Share Ananysis ,Norwell, Ma : Kluwer
9. Dodson, Joe A. and Eitan Muller (1973), "Models of New Product Diffusion Through Advertising and word-of-Mouth," Management Science, 24(November), pp.1568-78.
10.Easingwood,Christopher J. ,Vijay Mahajan, and Eitan Muller (1983) ," A Nonuniform Influence Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance," Marketing Science, Vol. 2 (Summer) , pp. 273-296.
11.Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovation (New York: The Free Press,1962),p.13.
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13.Fourt,Louis A. and Joseph W. Woodlock (1960) , "Early Prediction of Market Success for New Grocery Products," Journal of Marketing ,Vol.24(October), pp.31-38.
14.Takada,Hirokazu and Dipak Jain (1991) ,"Cross-National Analysis of Diffusion of Consumer Durable Goods in Pacific Rim Countries," Journal of Marketing, Vol.55 (April) ,pp.48-54.
15.Horskey,Dan and Leonard S. Simon (1978) ,"Advertising in a Model of New Product Diffusion," presented at the TIMS/ORSA National Meeting in New York City, May.
16.Horskey,Dan and Leonard S. Simon (1983) ,"Advertising and the Diffusion of New Products," Management Science,1 (Winter) ,1-18.
17.Horskey,Dan and Karl Mate (1988) ,"Dynamic Advertising Strategies of Competing Durable Good Products," Marketing Science,Vol.7,No.4 (Fall), pp.356-367.
18.Horskey,Dan (1990) ,"A Diffusion Model Incorporating Product Benefits, Price, Income and Information," Marketing Science, Vol.9,No.4(Fall),pp.342-365.
19.Jack D. C. Kleijnen (1975) ,Statistical Techniques in Simulation ,Part Ⅰ,Part Ⅱ Marcel Dekker, Inc. ,New York.
20.Kalish,Shlomo (1983) ,"Monopolist Pricing with Dynamic Demand and Production, Costs ," Marketing Science, Vol.2,No.2(Spring) ,pp.135-159.
21.Kalish,Shlomo (1985) ,"A New Product Adoption Model with Price, Advertising, and Uncertainty," Management Science, Vol.31,No. 12(December) ,pp.1569-1585.
22.Kamakura,Wagner A. and Siva K. Balasubramanian (1988) ,"Long-Term View of the Diffusion of Durables," International Journal of Research in Marketing,5,l-13.
23.Kendall,M. G., and A. Stuart (1967) ,The Advanced Theory of Statistics,Vol.2, London ; Griffin.
24.Kotler,Philip (1965) ,"Competitive Strategies for New Product Marketing over the Life Cycle," Management Science, Vol.12,No. 4(December),B104-119.
25.Kotler,Philip (1971) ,"Marketing Decision Making: A Model Building Approach," New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
26.Kuehn,Alfred A. (1962) ,"Consumer Brand Choice - A Learning Process ? " Journal of Advertising Research,Vol.2 (December) ,pp.l0-17.
27.Lambin,Jean-Jacques (1972) ,"A Computer On-Line Marketing Mix Model," Journal of Marketing Research, Vol.IX (May) ,119-126.
28.Lekvall,P. and C. Wahlbin (1973) ,"A study of Some Assumptions Underlying Innovation Diffusion Functions," Swedish Journal of Economics,75,362-77.
29.Lilien G. L. and A. G. Rao (1978),"A Marketing Promotion Model with Word of Mouth Effect," working Paper 976-78, Boston: Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
30.Lilien G. L., Kotler Philip & Moorthy K. Sridhar (1992), Marketing Models , Englewood Cliffs , New Jersey, Prentice-Hall International, Inc.
31.Little J. D. C., "Models and Managers: the Concept of Decision Calculus, "Management Science, Vo1.16,No.8,April 1970,pp.466-485.
32.Little J. D. C. ,"BRANDAID : A Marketing Mix Model, Part 2: Implementation, Calibration, and Case Study," Operation Research, Vol.23,No.4,July-August 1975, pp.657-673.
33.Little J. D. C. and Leonard M. Lodish (1981) ,"Commentary on` Judgment Based Marketing Decision Models, `" Journal of Marketing ,Vo1.45,No.4(fall) ,pp.24-29.
34.Lodish,Leonard M. (1971),"CALLPLAN : An Interactive Salesman`s Call Planning System," Management Science, Vol.I8,No.4,pt.2 (December) ,pp.25-40.
35.Lodish,Leonard M. (1980),"A User Oriented Hodel for Sales Force Size, Product and Marketing Allocation Decision," Journal of Marketing,Vol.44(Summer) ,pp.70-78.
36.Lodish,Leonard M. (1982),"A Marketing Decision Support System for Retailers ,"Marketing Science, Vol.1,No.l(Winter) ,pp.31-56.
37.Lodish,Leonard H., Ellen Curtis, Michael Ness, and M. Kerry Simpson (1988) ,"Sales Force Sizing and Deployment Using a Decision Calculus Model at Syntex Laboratories," Interfaces, Vol.18,No.l(January/February) ,pp.5-20.
38.Hahajan,V.and R. A. Peterson (1978) ,"Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population," Management Science, 15 (November) ,1589-97.
39.Mahajan,V.,Eitan Muller, and frank M. Bass (1990),"New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing : A Review and Directions for Research," Journal of Marketing,Vol.54(January) ,pp.I-26.
40.Mahajan,V. ,Eitan Muller, and Rajendra Srivastava (1990) ,"Determination of Adopter Categories by using Innovation Diffusion Hodels," Journal of Marketing Research,Vol.27(February) ,pp.37-50.
41.Mansfield,EdlVin (1961),"Technical Change and the Rate of Imitation," Econometrica,Vol.29,No.4(October),pp.741-765.
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43.l-ling-te Lu, Ching-cha Hsieh, and Chien-chun Pan (1989)," Implemen-
ting Decision Support Systems in Developing Countries," IMDS
No.7,pp.21-26.
44.Montgomery,D. B., A. J. Silk, and C. E. Zaragoza (1971),"A Mul-
tiple-Product Sales Force Allocation Model," Management Science
, Vol.18,No.4, pt.2(December),pp.3-24.
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Vol. XIV (November) ,pp.487-498.
46. Naert P. A. & Weverbergh M. (1981) , "Subjective Versus Empirical Decision
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50.Peterson,R. A. and V. Mahajan (1978) ,"Multi-Product Growth Models ," in Research in Marketing, J. Sheth, ed., Greenwich: JAI Press.
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52.Rogers,E. M. (1983),Diffusion of Innovations,3rd ed. New York: The Free Pres.
53.Sands,S. and Warwich,L. M. "Successful Business Innovation: A Survey of Current Professional Views", Californian Management Review, vol. 20, No.2, 1977, pp.5-16.
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57.White,Ro, Consumer Product Development, Penguin Books, 1976.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
企業管理學系
G798546
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004052
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 洪順慶zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Horng, Shun-Chingen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳朝福zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Shao-Fuen_US
dc.creator (作者) 陳朝福zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Shao-Fuen_US
dc.date (日期) 1992en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-May-2016 13:23:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-May-2016 13:23:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-May-2016 13:23:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002004052en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/89034-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 企業管理學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) G798546zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究以過去類似研究的發展經驗為基礎，參照國內企業界的特殊決策環境及決策型態，並考量行銷問題的特質，建立一套整合性行銷系統模擬架構( 以蒙特卡羅模擬法為基本架構，以行銷系統模式為核心 )，協助決策者評估╱選擇新產品上市時之最適競爭性行銷策略，以提高新產品上市後的成功率。本研究從決策者立場的角度來建構整個架構，採用「互動式漸進法」讓決策者能共同參與模式之建構，並透過「結構式詢問法」輸入資料卷協助決策者在問題答覆的過程中，將系統行為的隱性心智模式轉化成顯性數理模式，使本模擬架構能成為實用的電腦輔助工具，縮短行銷科學與行銷實務的距離。本研究在國內行銷實務及學術界中尚屬較新的嚐試，zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章緒論.........1
第一節研究背景.........1
第二節研究動機.........3
第三節研究目的.........5
第四節論文結構.........5
第二章文獻探討.........7
第一節市場反應函數及決策計算模式.........7
一.市場反應函數.........7
二.決策計算模式.........9
第二節新產品擴散模式.........11
一.新產品分類.........11
(一).新產品創新程度連續帶.........11
(二).新產品分類矩陣.........11
(三).研究標的.........12
二.新產品擴散模式.........13
(一).擴散過程概念來源.........13
(二).新產品擴散區隔.........13
(三).影響擴散過程式移轉機制之因素.........13
三.基本擴散模式及Bass模式.........14
(一).基本擴散模式.........14
(二).Bass模式.........16
1.數學式定義.........16
2.Bass模式基本假設及限制.........19
四.Bass模式之修正或延伸.........20
(一).NUI模式.........20
(二).Bass模式修正.........21
第三節品牌市場佔有率模式.........24
一.市場佔有率理論.........24
(一).Kotler基本理論.........24
(二).BKL市場佔有率理論.........25
(三).其他市場佔有率模式.........27
二.BRANDAID模式.........27
第三章研究架構與研究方法.........30
第一節研究架構.........30
一.界定問題與研究範圍.........30
二.成立基本假設.........32
三.建構行銷系統模式.........32
四.建構整合性行銷系統模擬架構.........32
五.設計「結構式詢問法」輸入資料卷.........32
六.模擬架構驗證及實例研究.........33
七.結論與建議.........33
第二節研究方法.........33
第三節行銷系統模式.........35
一.競爭性行銷策略矩陣.........35
(一).行銷策略.........37
1.非適應性策略.........37
(1).中庸策略.........37
(2).市場吸脂策略.........38
(3).市場滲透策略.........39
2.時間依序策略.........39
(1).先高價再低價策略.........40
(2).先低價再高價再低價策略.........41
3.競爭性適應策略.........42
(1).模仿策略.........42
(2).掠奪策略.........42
4.銷售反應策略.........43
5.利潤反應策略.........44
6.市場佔有率反應策略.........45
(二).行銷策略矩陣.........46
二.產業銷售量計算模式.........46
(一).第一次購買者新產品擴散模式.........46
(二).季節變化指數.........52
(三).產業銷售量模式.........53
三.品牌市場佔有率模式.........53
四.市場績效模式.........63
(一).公司新品牌銷售量模式.........63
(二).攸關成本模式.........63
(三).利潤模式.........65
1.損益平衡點銷售量計算.........65
2.短期利潤計算.........65
3.短期現金流量計算.........65
4.長期累積利潤計算.........65
(四).淨現值模式.........65
(五).累積現金現值－投資比模式.........66
四.策略評估模式.........66
(一).行銷目標.........66
(二).決策準則.........67
1.貝氏最大期望值準則.........67
2.最大期望效用準則.........67
3.期望利潤－風險區域準則.........67
4.樂觀或最大之最大報償準則.........69
5.悲觀或最大的最小報償準則.........69
6.最小之最大遺憾準則.........70
7.最小之最大損失準則.........70
8.衡突情況下的決策準則.........70
第四節整合性行銷系統模擬架構.........70
一.決定決策變數之悲觀值、最佳估計值、樂觀值.........71
二.蒙持卡羅隨機取樣法.........73
三.決定系統反應值及重覆執行.........73
四.系統反應值統計量計算.........73
五.市場績效矩陣.........74
六.策略評估/選擇.........74
七.系統反應靈敏度分析.........74
第四章模擬架構驗證及實例研究.........76
第一節模擬架構驗證.........76
第二節羽田小型轎跑車「經典祥瑞」行銷策略選擇之實例研究.........77
一.羽田機械公司背景介紹.........78
二.行銷環境分析.........79
(一).一般環境趨勢與變動.........79
(二).產業分析.........80
1.產品特性.........80
2.國內小型轎跑車產業特性.........81
3.消費暨市場特性.........82
(三).競爭分析.........85
1.現有競爭對手.........85
2.潛在競爭對手.........87
3.替代品.........87
三.羽田祥瑞車種當蒯勢態分析.........88
(一).產品特色.........88
(二).目標市場.........88
(三).垂直整合程度.........88
(四).規模經濟.........89
四.確認主要問題.........89
五.解決方案.........89
六.資料蒐集、結果分析與討論.........90
(一).資料蒐集.........90
(二).分析與討論.........90
(三).靈敏度分析..........101
1.樣本數目對結果之影響.........101
2.降價效果分析.........101
3.漲價效果分析.........103
4.重要參變數靈敏度分析.........105
第五章結論與建議.........107
第一節結論.........107
第二節研究限制.........108
第三節未來研究領域與建議.........109
參考文獻.........111
附錄一「結構式詢問法」輸入資料卷.........115
附錄二蒙特卡羅模擬程式輸入資料檔(MOCLO.DAT).........138
附錄三機率分配無關寬限度分析法.........141		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004052en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 行銷管理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 行銷模擬zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 決策支援系統zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 蒙特卡羅模擬法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新產品策略zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Marketing managementen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Marketing simulationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Decision support systemen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Monte Carlo Simulationen_US
dc.title (題名) 耐久性消費品新品牌競爭性行銷策略選擇之實例研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Competitive Marketing Decision Study for New Durable Consumer Producten_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一.中文部份
1.鄭振明. (民80) .廣告決策支援立在統之研究，中山企管研究所論文。
2. 潘銘雄. (民81 ) .銷售反應系統之建構、使用興決策績效之衡量，政大企管研究所論文。
3. 高仲炯，李坤清. (民80. 十月) .我國企業策略電腦化調查分析--決策支援系統運用有待加強，資訊傳真雜誌。
二、英文部份
1.Alberts, Willian W. (1989), "The Experience Curve Doctrine Reconsidered," Journal of Marketing, Vol. 53 (July), pp. 36-49.
2.Bass,F. (1969),"A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables," Management Science, Vol.15 (January),pp.215-227.
3.Bell,D. E., Ralph L. Keeney, and J. D. C. Little (1975),"A Market Share Theorem," Journal of Marketing Research, Vo1.12 , pp. 136-141.
4.Boston Consulting Group (1970) ,Perspectives on Experience, Boston: Authors.
5.Booz,Allen and Hamilton (1981), New Products Management for the 1980 : phase I, Chicago
6.Ching-cha Hsieh, Ming-te Lu, and Chien-chun Pan (1992),"Current Status of DSS use in Taiwan, "Information & Management 22,pp.199-206.
7.Clarke D. G., "Marketing analysis and Decision Making: Text and Cases with Lotus 1-2-3 ," The Scientific Press,1987.
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