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題名 期中報告發佈後財務分析師修正盈餘預測之決定因素－實證研究
作者 黃玲俐
貢獻者 吳安妮
黃玲俐
關鍵詞 盈餘預測
期中報告
財務分析師
日期 1993
1992
上傳時間 2-May-2016 15:15:49 (UTC+8)
摘要 企業環境競爭之日趨白熱化及證券投資市場之蓬勃發展，使得「預測性資訊」於投資者之決策過程中，扮演著愈來愈顯重要的角色，尤其是兼具客觀性及正確性的分析師盈餘預測資訊更是如此。財務分析師成為證券市場之代言人，隱含著兩層意義：一為財務分析師將成為會計資訊的重要（直接）使用人；另一為投資人之投資績效將與財務分析師之預測績效息息相關，因而吾人有必要對財務分析師之決策過程及其產品（盈餘預測資訊）獲致更進一步的了解。
參考文獻 一、 中文部分
1. 吳安妮，經理人員自願揭露盈餘預測資訊給外界之決定因素──實證研究，會計評論，民國八十年二月，第25期：1-24頁。
2. 許錦娟，管理當局盈餘預測在證券投資決策之有用性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國八十一年六月。
3. 許秀賓，財務分析師盈餘預測相對準確性決定因素之實證研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國八十年七月。
4. 張淑娟，盈餘預測準確度與公司特質關係之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國八十年七月。
5. 林維衍，台灣上市公司盈餘預測：時間序列與公司預期之比較暨聯合效益分析，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國七十九年六月。
6. 王富中，期中財務報表預測盈餘之功能，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國七十八年六月。
7. 游萬淵，會計盈餘預測之準確性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年六月。
8. 徐春美，期中報表預測能力之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國六十八年六月。
9. 鄭丁旺著，中級會計學，上冊，台北：自行出版，民國七十九年八月四版。
10. 賴源河，證券管理法官，台北：自行出版，民國七十八年四月初版。
11. 顏月珠，商月統計學，三民書局，民國七十六年七月三版。
12. SAS／BASIC套裝程式集中文手冊，教育部電子計算機中心編印，民國七十五年三月。
13. 證券交易法，民國七十七年一月二十九日公告。


1. Abdel-khalik, A.R. and J. Espejo. 1978. Expectations
data and the predictive value of interim
reporting. Journal of Accounting Research 16
(Spring) : 1-13.
2. Aldrich, J. and F. Nelson. 1984. Linear Probability,
logit, and probit models. London: SAGE
Publ ications.
3. Babbie, E. 1992. The practice of social research .
California: Wadsworth Publishing Co.
4. Brown, L.D. J.S. Hughes, M.S. Rozeff, and J.R.
Vanderweide. 1980. Expectations data and the
predictive value of interim reporting: a comment.
Journal of Accounting Research (Spring): 278-88.
5. Brown, L.D. and M.S. Rozeff. 1978. The superiority
of analyst forecasts as measures of expectations:
evidence from earnings. The Journal of
Finance (March) : 1-16.
6. Brown, L.D. and M.S. Rozeff. 1979a. The predictive
value of interim reports for improving
forecasts of future quarterly earnings. The Accounting
Review 3 (July): 585-591.
7. Brown, L.D. and M.S. Rozeff. 1979b. Adaptive expectations,
time-series models, and analyst
forecast revision. Journal of Accounting Research
17 (Autumn) : 314-35l.
8. Brown P. and V. Niederhoffer. 1968. The predictive
content of quarterly earnings. Journal of
Business (October) : 488-497.
*9. Cox, C.T. 1985. Further Evidence on the representativeness
of management earnings forecasts.
The Accounting Review (October): 692-701.
10. Crichfield T., D. Thomas and J. Lakonishok. 1978.
An evaluation of security analysts` forecasts.
The Accounting Review (July): 651-668.
11. Foster. G .. 1977. Quarterly accounting data:
time- series properties and predictiveabi I ity
results. The Accounting Review (Jaunary): 1-2l.
12. Fried, D. and D. Givoly. 1982. Financial analysis
forecasts of earnings: a better surrogate for
market expectations. Journal of Accounting and
Econom i cs : 85-107.
*13. Gaber, M. 1985. Management Incentives to report
forecasts of corporate earnings. Ph. D. Dissertation,
The City University of New York.
14. Green, D., Jr., and J. Segall. 1967a. The predictive
power of first-quarter earnings reports.
Journal of Business (Jaunary) : 44-55.
*15. Han, C. 1986. Management forecasts: incentives
and effect. Ph. D. Dissertation, University of
New York at Buffalo.
16. Hassell, 1.M. and R.H. Jennings. 1986. Relative
forecast accurancy and the timing of earnings
forecast announcements. The Accounting Review
(January) : 58-75.
*17. Imhoff, E. 1978. The representativeness of management
earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review
(October): 836-850.
*18. Imhoff, E. and P. Pare. 1982. Analysis and Comparison
of Earnings forecast agents. Journal of
Accounting Research (Autumn) : 429-439.
19. Kross, W., B. Ro, and D. Schroeder. 1990. Earnings
expectations: the analysts` information advantage.
The Accounting Review 65 (Apri 1) :
461-476.
*20. Lees, f. 1981. Public disclosure of corporate
earnings forecast. New York` The Conference
Board.
21. Moses, O.D .. 1991. Cash flow signals and analysts`
earnings forecast revisions. Journal of
Business Finance & Accounting 18 (June): 807-832.
22. Myers, R.H. 1990. Classical and modern regression
with applications. Boston: PWS-KENT.
23. O`Brien, P. 1988. Analysts` forecasts as earnings
expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics:
53-83.
*24. Penman, S. 1980. An empirical investigation of
the voluntary disclosure of corporate earnings
forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research
(Spring) : 132-160.
*25. Reilly, F.K., D.L. Morgenson, and M. West. 1972.
The predictive abi I ity of alternative parts of
interim financial statements. Empirical Research
in Accounting: Selected Studies 10: 105-124 .
26. SAS Technical Report P-200 SAS/STAT Software`
Cal is and Logistic Procedures Release 6.04. 1990.
SAS Institute Inc.
27. Schipper, K .. 1991. Commentary on analysts`
forecasts. Accounting Horizons (December):
105-121.
*28. Spector, P. 1982. Research Design. London: Sage Publications.
29.Stickel, S.E.. 1989. The timing of and incentives for annual earnings forecasts near interim earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11 (February):275-292.
30. Thompson, R.B.,C.Olsen, and J.R. Dietrich. 1987.Attributes of news about firms:An analysis of firm-specific news reported in the Wall Street Journal Index. Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn):245-274.
31.Hagerman, R.L. and M.E. Zmijewski. 1979. Some economic determinants of accounting policy choice. Journal of Accounting and Economics 1: 141-161.
*:為作者間接參考
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004348
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 吳安妮zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃玲俐zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 黃玲俐zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 1993en_US
dc.date (日期) 1992en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-May-2016 15:15:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-May-2016 15:15:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-May-2016 15:15:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002004348en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/89199-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計學系zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 企業環境競爭之日趨白熱化及證券投資市場之蓬勃發展，使得「預測性資訊」於投資者之決策過程中，扮演著愈來愈顯重要的角色，尤其是兼具客觀性及正確性的分析師盈餘預測資訊更是如此。財務分析師成為證券市場之代言人，隱含著兩層意義：一為財務分析師將成為會計資訊的重要（直接）使用人；另一為投資人之投資績效將與財務分析師之預測績效息息相關，因而吾人有必要對財務分析師之決策過程及其產品（盈餘預測資訊）獲致更進一步的了解。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 表　次‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧Ｉ
圖　次‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧ＩＩ

第一章　緒論‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　１
　第一節　研究動機‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　１
　第二節　研究問題‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　３
　第三節　研究方法‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　５
　第四節　研究貢獻‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　５
　第五節　論文架構‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　７

第二章　文獻探討‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　８
　第一節　財務分析師盈餘預測修正－時間特性之相關文獻‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　８
　第二節　財務分析師盈餘預測修正時點－決定因素之相關文獻‧‧‧‧　１８
　第三節　研究延伸‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　３３

第三章　研究方法‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　３９
　第一節　觀念性架構‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　３９
　第二節　研究設計‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　３９
　第三節　研究假設‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　４１
　第四節　變數之衡量‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　４３
　第五節　抽樣限制條件‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　５０
　第六節　資料蒐集‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　５５
　第七節　資料分析方法‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　５５

第四章　實證研究結果‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　６２
　第一節　財務分析師盈餘預測修正之時間特性‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　６２
　第二節　財務分析師漁期中報告發佈後修正盈餘預測之決定因素‧‧‧　６８

第五章　結論、研究限制與建議‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　７６
　第一節　結論‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　７６
　第二節　研究限制‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　７９
　第三節　建議‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　７９

參考書目‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧‧　８１		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004348en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 盈餘預測zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 期中報告zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財務分析師zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 期中報告發佈後財務分析師修正盈餘預測之決定因素－實證研究zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 中文部分
1. 吳安妮，經理人員自願揭露盈餘預測資訊給外界之決定因素──實證研究，會計評論，民國八十年二月，第25期：1-24頁。
2. 許錦娟，管理當局盈餘預測在證券投資決策之有用性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國八十一年六月。
3. 許秀賓，財務分析師盈餘預測相對準確性決定因素之實證研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國八十年七月。
4. 張淑娟，盈餘預測準確度與公司特質關係之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國八十年七月。
5. 林維衍，台灣上市公司盈餘預測：時間序列與公司預期之比較暨聯合效益分析，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國七十九年六月。
6. 王富中，期中財務報表預測盈餘之功能，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國七十八年六月。
7. 游萬淵，會計盈餘預測之準確性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年六月。
8. 徐春美，期中報表預測能力之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國六十八年六月。
9. 鄭丁旺著，中級會計學，上冊，台北：自行出版，民國七十九年八月四版。
10. 賴源河，證券管理法官，台北：自行出版，民國七十八年四月初版。
11. 顏月珠，商月統計學，三民書局，民國七十六年七月三版。
12. SAS／BASIC套裝程式集中文手冊，教育部電子計算機中心編印，民國七十五年三月。
13. 證券交易法，民國七十七年一月二十九日公告。


1. Abdel-khalik, A.R. and J. Espejo. 1978. Expectations
data and the predictive value of interim
reporting. Journal of Accounting Research 16
(Spring) : 1-13.
2. Aldrich, J. and F. Nelson. 1984. Linear Probability,
logit, and probit models. London: SAGE
Publ ications.
3. Babbie, E. 1992. The practice of social research .
California: Wadsworth Publishing Co.
4. Brown, L.D. J.S. Hughes, M.S. Rozeff, and J.R.
Vanderweide. 1980. Expectations data and the
predictive value of interim reporting: a comment.
Journal of Accounting Research (Spring): 278-88.
5. Brown, L.D. and M.S. Rozeff. 1978. The superiority
of analyst forecasts as measures of expectations:
evidence from earnings. The Journal of
Finance (March) : 1-16.
6. Brown, L.D. and M.S. Rozeff. 1979a. The predictive
value of interim reports for improving
forecasts of future quarterly earnings. The Accounting
Review 3 (July): 585-591.
7. Brown, L.D. and M.S. Rozeff. 1979b. Adaptive expectations,
time-series models, and analyst
forecast revision. Journal of Accounting Research
17 (Autumn) : 314-35l.
8. Brown P. and V. Niederhoffer. 1968. The predictive
content of quarterly earnings. Journal of
Business (October) : 488-497.
*9. Cox, C.T. 1985. Further Evidence on the representativeness
of management earnings forecasts.
The Accounting Review (October): 692-701.
10. Crichfield T., D. Thomas and J. Lakonishok. 1978.
An evaluation of security analysts` forecasts.
The Accounting Review (July): 651-668.
11. Foster. G .. 1977. Quarterly accounting data:
time- series properties and predictiveabi I ity
results. The Accounting Review (Jaunary): 1-2l.
12. Fried, D. and D. Givoly. 1982. Financial analysis
forecasts of earnings: a better surrogate for
market expectations. Journal of Accounting and
Econom i cs : 85-107.
*13. Gaber, M. 1985. Management Incentives to report
forecasts of corporate earnings. Ph. D. Dissertation,
The City University of New York.
14. Green, D., Jr., and J. Segall. 1967a. The predictive
power of first-quarter earnings reports.
Journal of Business (Jaunary) : 44-55.
*15. Han, C. 1986. Management forecasts: incentives
and effect. Ph. D. Dissertation, University of
New York at Buffalo.
16. Hassell, 1.M. and R.H. Jennings. 1986. Relative
forecast accurancy and the timing of earnings
forecast announcements. The Accounting Review
(January) : 58-75.
*17. Imhoff, E. 1978. The representativeness of management
earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review
(October): 836-850.
*18. Imhoff, E. and P. Pare. 1982. Analysis and Comparison
of Earnings forecast agents. Journal of
Accounting Research (Autumn) : 429-439.
19. Kross, W., B. Ro, and D. Schroeder. 1990. Earnings
expectations: the analysts` information advantage.
The Accounting Review 65 (Apri 1) :
461-476.
*20. Lees, f. 1981. Public disclosure of corporate
earnings forecast. New York` The Conference
Board.
21. Moses, O.D .. 1991. Cash flow signals and analysts`
earnings forecast revisions. Journal of
Business Finance & Accounting 18 (June): 807-832.
22. Myers, R.H. 1990. Classical and modern regression
with applications. Boston: PWS-KENT.
23. O`Brien, P. 1988. Analysts` forecasts as earnings
expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics:
53-83.
*24. Penman, S. 1980. An empirical investigation of
the voluntary disclosure of corporate earnings
forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research
(Spring) : 132-160.
*25. Reilly, F.K., D.L. Morgenson, and M. West. 1972.
The predictive abi I ity of alternative parts of
interim financial statements. Empirical Research
in Accounting: Selected Studies 10: 105-124 .
26. SAS Technical Report P-200 SAS/STAT Software`
Cal is and Logistic Procedures Release 6.04. 1990.
SAS Institute Inc.
27. Schipper, K .. 1991. Commentary on analysts`
forecasts. Accounting Horizons (December):
105-121.
*28. Spector, P. 1982. Research Design. London: Sage Publications.
29.Stickel, S.E.. 1989. The timing of and incentives for annual earnings forecasts near interim earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11 (February):275-292.
30. Thompson, R.B.,C.Olsen, and J.R. Dietrich. 1987.Attributes of news about firms:An analysis of firm-specific news reported in the Wall Street Journal Index. Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn):245-274.
31.Hagerman, R.L. and M.E. Zmijewski. 1979. Some economic determinants of accounting policy choice. Journal of Accounting and Economics 1: 141-161.
*:為作者間接參考		zh_TW