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題名 管理當局盈餘預測在證券投資決策之有用性研究 作者 許錦娟
XU, JIN-JUAN貢獻者 林基煌
LIN, JI-HUANG
許錦娟
XU, JIN-JUAN關鍵詞 盈餘預測
管理當局
投資決策
會計日期 1992
1991上傳時間 2-May-2016 15:16:28 (UTC+8) 摘要 決策的本質在於未來情況的不確定性，而良好的經濟決策有賴於充分適切的資訊，隨著證券市場環境的不斷變化，投資者對於資訊品質的要求日益提高，尤其是有助於投資者減少風險及不確定性之盈餘預測資訊，何以故？因為盈餘預測資訊攸關投資決策之制定。 參考文獻 一、中文部份l 證券發行人財務報告編製準則，民國八十年五月。2. 何培基編著，商用統計學與SAS/PC 應用，長諾資訊圖書公司，民國七十九年一月第一版。3. 林志興，企業對外報導財務預測問題之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國六十八年八月。4. 林維珊，台灣上市公司盈餘預測:時間序列與公司預期之比較暨聯合效益分析，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十九年六月。5 徐惠慈，企業揭露預測資訊與會計師核閱之可行性研究，私立東吳大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十五年六月。6 倪安順譯， SAS 基礎與統計應用使用手冊，儒林圖書公司，民國八十年八月再版。7. 財務會計準則公報第十六號「財務預測編製要點」，民國七十八年十二月。8. 財政部證券管理委員會， (80) 台財證(一)第00904 號函，民國八十年五月。9 財政部證券管理委員向(80) 台可證(六)第03362 號函，民國八十年十二月。1 0 許秀賓，財務分析師盈餘預測相對準確性決定因素之實證研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十年七月。1 1 游萬淵，會計盈餘預測之準確性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年六月。12. 發行人募集與發行有價證券處理準則，民國八十年四月。13 審計準則公報第十九號「財務預測核閱要點」民國七十九年十月。1 4 鄭丁旺著，中級會計學上冊，自印，民國七十九年八月四版。15 .顏月珠著，商用統計學，三民書局，民國八十年八月再修定七版。16 .證券交易法，民國七十七年一月。17 公司募集發行有價證券公開說明書應行記載事項準則，民國八十年四月。二、英文部份1. Armstrong, J. S. 1983. Relative Accuracy of Judgemental and Extrapolative Methods In Forecasting Annua I Earnings. Journal of Forecasting: 437-447.2. Bartley, J. W., and A. B. Cameron. 1991.Long-Run Earnings Forecasts by Managers and Financial Analysts. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting (January): 21-41.3. Basi,B., K. Carey, and R. Twark. 1976. A Comparison of the Accuracy of Corporate and Security Analysts` Forecasts of Earnings. The Accounting Review (April): 244-254.4. Brown, L. D., and M. S. Rozeff. 1978. The Superiority of Analysts Forecasts as Measures of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings.Journal of Finance (March):1-16.5. Brown, L.D. , R. L. Hagerman, P. A. Griffin,and M. E. Zmijewski. 1987. Security Analyst Superiority Relative to Univariate Time-Series Models In Forecasting Quarterly Earnings.Journal of Accounting Research and Economics 9:61-87.6. Chambers, A., and S. Penman. 1984. Timeliness of Reporting and the Stock Price Reaction to Earnings Announcements. Journal of Accounting Research (Spring): 21-47.7. Chatfield, R. E., R. C. Moyer, and P. M. Sisneros. 1989. The Accuracy of Long-Term 486-508.13. Green, D. and J. Segall. 1966. The Predictive Power of First-Quarter Earnings Reports: A Replication. Empirical Research in Accounting;Selected Studies: 21-36.14. Green, D. and J. Segall. 1967. The Predictive Power of First-Quarter Earnings Reports.Journal of Business 40 (January); 44-55.15. Hagerman, R. L., and W. Ruland. 1979. The Accuracy of Management Forecasts and Forecasts of Simple Alternative Models. Journal of Economics and Business (Spring): 172-179.16. Hassell J., and R. Jennings. 1986. Relative Forecast Accuracy and the Timing of Earnings Forecast Announcements. The Accounting Review (January); 58-75.17. Imhoff, E. 1978. The Representativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts. The Accounting Review (October): 836-850.18. Imhoff, E., and P. Pare. 1982. Analysis and Comparison of Earnings Forecasts Agents.Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn):429-439.1 9. Jaggi, B. 1980. Further Evidence on the Aceuracy of Management Forecasts Vis-a-Vis Analysts` Forecasts. The Accounting Review (January):96-101.20. Jaggi, B., and P. Grier. 1980. A Comparative Analysis of Forecast Disclosing and Non-Disclosing Firms. Financial Management (Summer): 38-43.21. Keasey, K., and P. McGuinness. 1991.Prospectus Earnings Forecasts and the Pricing of New Issues on the Unlisted Securities Market. Accounting and Business Research (Spring): 133-145.22. Lees, F. 1981. Public Disclosure of Corporate Earnings Forecasts. (New York: The Conference Board).23. Lobo, G. J., and R.D. Nair. 1990. Combining Judgmental and Statistical Forecasts: An Application to Earnings Forecasts. Decision Sciences (Spring): 446-460.24. Lorek, K. S., C. L. McDonald, and D. H. Patz.1976. A Comparative Examination of Management Forecasts and Box-Jenkins Forecasts of Earnings. The Accounting Review (April):321-330.25. O)brien) P.C. 1988. Analysts) Forecasts as Earnings Expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics 10: 53-83.26. Pastena, V,,and J. Ronen. 1979. Some Hypotheses on the Pattern of Management’s Informal Disclosures. Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn): 550-564.27. Patell, J., and M. Wolfson. 1982. Good News,Bad News) and the Intraday Timing of Corporate Disclosures. The Accounting Review (July):509-527.28. Ruland, W. 1978. The Accuracy of Forecasts by Management and Financial Analysts. The Accounting Review (April): 439-447.29. Schreuder,H., and J. Klaassen. 1984.Confidential Revenue and Profit Forecasts byManagement and Financial Analysts: Evidence from the Netherlands. The Accounting Review (January): 64-77.30. Stewart) S. 1973. Research Report on Corporate Forecasts. Financial Analysts Journal (Jan-reb):77 -91 .31. Waymire,G. 1984. Additional Evidence on the Information Content of Management Earnings.Forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn): 703-718.32. Waymire, G. 1985. Earnings Volatility and Voluntary Management Forecast Disclosure.Journal of Accounting Research (Spring):268-295.33. Waymire, G. 1986. Additional Evidence on the Accuracy of Analyst Forecasts Before and After Voluntary Management Earnings Forecasts. The Accounting Review (January): 129-142. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004686 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林基煌 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor LIN, JI-HUANG en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 許錦娟 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) XU, JIN-JUAN en_US dc.creator (作者) 許錦娟 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) XU, JIN-JUAN en_US dc.date (日期) 1992 en_US dc.date (日期) 1991 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-May-2016 15:16:28 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-May-2016 15:16:28 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-May-2016 15:16:28 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002004686 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/89217 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 會計學系 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 決策的本質在於未來情況的不確定性，而良好的經濟決策有賴於充分適切的資訊，隨著證券市場環境的不斷變化，投資者對於資訊品質的要求日益提高，尤其是有助於投資者減少風險及不確定性之盈餘預測資訊，何以故？因為盈餘預測資訊攸關投資決策之制定。 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章緒論...........1第一節研究動機與目的...........1第二節研究問題...........3第三節研究方法...........4第四節論文架構...........5第二章研究背景和文獻探討...........7第一節研究背景概述...........7一、由投資決策觀點探討財務預測資訊之有用性...........7二、贊成與反對揭露財務預測資訊的理由...........10三、我國目前財務預測實務之相關規定...........14第二節比較盈餘預測相對準確性之相關文獻...........18一、管理當局與統計模式之比較...........19二、財務分析師與統計模式之比較...........25三、管理當局與財務分析師之比較...........32第三節影響管理當局揭露盈餘預測因素之相關文獻...........39一、盈餘變異性...........39二、揭露時機與揭露型態...........44第四節研究之延伸...........48第三章研究方法...........53第一節觀念性架構...........53第二節研究假說...........55第三節變數之衝量...........58第四節抽樣之限制條件與資料蒐集...........61第五節資料分析方法...........63第四章實證研究結果...........65第一節管理當局與財務分析師盈餘預測之樣本特性...........65第二節比較管理當局與財務分析師盈餘預測之相對準確性...........69第三節影響管理當局揭露盈餘預測之因素...........84第五章結論與建議...........91第一節研究結論...........91第二節研究限制...........94第三節未來研究之建議...........95參考文獻...........97 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004686 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 盈餘預測 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 管理當局 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投資決策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 會計 zh_TW dc.title (題名) 管理當局盈餘預測在證券投資決策之有用性研究 zh_TW dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部份l 證券發行人財務報告編製準則，民國八十年五月。2. 何培基編著，商用統計學與SAS/PC 應用，長諾資訊圖書公司，民國七十九年一月第一版。3. 林志興，企業對外報導財務預測問題之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國六十八年八月。4. 林維珊，台灣上市公司盈餘預測:時間序列與公司預期之比較暨聯合效益分析，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十九年六月。5 徐惠慈，企業揭露預測資訊與會計師核閱之可行性研究，私立東吳大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十五年六月。6 倪安順譯， SAS 基礎與統計應用使用手冊，儒林圖書公司，民國八十年八月再版。7. 財務會計準則公報第十六號「財務預測編製要點」，民國七十八年十二月。8. 財政部證券管理委員會， (80) 台財證(一)第00904 號函，民國八十年五月。9 財政部證券管理委員向(80) 台可證(六)第03362 號函，民國八十年十二月。1 0 許秀賓，財務分析師盈餘預測相對準確性決定因素之實證研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十年七月。1 1 游萬淵，會計盈餘預測之準確性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年六月。12. 發行人募集與發行有價證券處理準則，民國八十年四月。13 審計準則公報第十九號「財務預測核閱要點」民國七十九年十月。1 4 鄭丁旺著，中級會計學上冊，自印，民國七十九年八月四版。15 .顏月珠著，商用統計學，三民書局，民國八十年八月再修定七版。16 .證券交易法，民國七十七年一月。17 公司募集發行有價證券公開說明書應行記載事項準則，民國八十年四月。二、英文部份1. Armstrong, J. S. 1983. Relative Accuracy of Judgemental and Extrapolative Methods In Forecasting Annua I Earnings. Journal of Forecasting: 437-447.2. Bartley, J. W., and A. B. Cameron. 1991.Long-Run Earnings Forecasts by Managers and Financial Analysts. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting (January): 21-41.3. Basi,B., K. Carey, and R. Twark. 1976. A Comparison of the Accuracy of Corporate and Security Analysts` Forecasts of Earnings. The Accounting Review (April): 244-254.4. Brown, L. D., and M. S. Rozeff. 1978. The Superiority of Analysts Forecasts as Measures of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings.Journal of Finance (March):1-16.5. Brown, L.D. , R. L. Hagerman, P. A. Griffin,and M. E. Zmijewski. 1987. Security Analyst Superiority Relative to Univariate Time-Series Models In Forecasting Quarterly Earnings.Journal of Accounting Research and Economics 9:61-87.6. Chambers, A., and S. Penman. 1984. Timeliness of Reporting and the Stock Price Reaction to Earnings Announcements. Journal of Accounting Research (Spring): 21-47.7. Chatfield, R. E., R. C. Moyer, and P. M. Sisneros. 1989. The Accuracy of Long-Term 486-508.13. Green, D. and J. Segall. 1966. The Predictive Power of First-Quarter Earnings Reports: A Replication. Empirical Research in Accounting;Selected Studies: 21-36.14. Green, D. and J. Segall. 1967. The Predictive Power of First-Quarter Earnings Reports.Journal of Business 40 (January); 44-55.15. Hagerman, R. L., and W. Ruland. 1979. The Accuracy of Management Forecasts and Forecasts of Simple Alternative Models. Journal of Economics and Business (Spring): 172-179.16. Hassell J., and R. Jennings. 1986. Relative Forecast Accuracy and the Timing of Earnings Forecast Announcements. The Accounting Review (January); 58-75.17. Imhoff, E. 1978. The Representativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts. The Accounting Review (October): 836-850.18. Imhoff, E., and P. Pare. 1982. Analysis and Comparison of Earnings Forecasts Agents.Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn):429-439.1 9. Jaggi, B. 1980. Further Evidence on the Aceuracy of Management Forecasts Vis-a-Vis Analysts` Forecasts. The Accounting Review (January):96-101.20. Jaggi, B., and P. Grier. 1980. A Comparative Analysis of Forecast Disclosing and Non-Disclosing Firms. Financial Management (Summer): 38-43.21. Keasey, K., and P. McGuinness. 1991.Prospectus Earnings Forecasts and the Pricing of New Issues on the Unlisted Securities Market. Accounting and Business Research (Spring): 133-145.22. Lees, F. 1981. Public Disclosure of Corporate Earnings Forecasts. (New York: The Conference Board).23. Lobo, G. J., and R.D. Nair. 1990. Combining Judgmental and Statistical Forecasts: An Application to Earnings Forecasts. Decision Sciences (Spring): 446-460.24. Lorek, K. S., C. L. McDonald, and D. H. Patz.1976. A Comparative Examination of Management Forecasts and Box-Jenkins Forecasts of Earnings. The Accounting Review (April):321-330.25. O)brien) P.C. 1988. Analysts) Forecasts as Earnings Expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics 10: 53-83.26. Pastena, V,,and J. Ronen. 1979. Some Hypotheses on the Pattern of Management’s Informal Disclosures. Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn): 550-564.27. Patell, J., and M. Wolfson. 1982. Good News,Bad News) and the Intraday Timing of Corporate Disclosures. The Accounting Review (July):509-527.28. Ruland, W. 1978. The Accuracy of Forecasts by Management and Financial Analysts. The Accounting Review (April): 439-447.29. Schreuder,H., and J. Klaassen. 1984.Confidential Revenue and Profit Forecasts byManagement and Financial Analysts: Evidence from the Netherlands. The Accounting Review (January): 64-77.30. Stewart) S. 1973. Research Report on Corporate Forecasts. Financial Analysts Journal (Jan-reb):77 -91 .31. Waymire,G. 1984. Additional Evidence on the Information Content of Management Earnings.Forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn): 703-718.32. Waymire, G. 1985. Earnings Volatility and Voluntary Management Forecast Disclosure.Journal of Accounting Research (Spring):268-295.33. Waymire, G. 1986. Additional Evidence on the Accuracy of Analyst Forecasts Before and After Voluntary Management Earnings Forecasts. The Accounting Review (January): 129-142. zh_TW
