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題名 商情預測理論架構與實務運作以個案公司為例
作者 陳錦滄
貢獻者 周文賢
陳錦滄
日期 1991
1990
上傳時間 2-May-2016 16:58:52 (UTC+8)
參考文獻 1. 中文部分

(1)宇宗先(民6 1)，經濟預測，中央研究院經濟研究所。
(2) 方世杰(民7 7)，市場預測方法一百種，台北，書泉出版社。
(3) 司徒達賢(民58) ，「台灣企業之環境分析」，企銀季刊，第三卷，第一期7 月， PP.32 。
(4) 台灣區電工器材同業公會(民80) ，台種區電工器材同業公會會員名錄。
(5 )周文賢(民79) ，時間序列分析未出版之課堂講義，政治大學統計研究所。
(6) 林建山(民76) ，商情預測?技術與實務，台北，環球經濟社。
(7) 林茂文(民75) ，時間序列分析與頭測，第二版，台北，華泰書局。
(8) 郭明哲(民74) ，預測方法?理論與實例，第七版，台北，中興管理顧問公司。
(9) 郭崑謨(民73) ，企業管理?總系統導向，修訂版，台北，華泰書局。
(10) 陳定國，黃俊英(民58) ，企業研究應用技街大全，台北，大世紀出版公司。
(11)黃俊英(民76) ，行銷研究:管理與技街，第二版，台北，華泰書局。
(12 )資策會市場情報中心(各月份) ，資訊工業透析。
(13 )葉進成(民78) ，行銷資訊系統之建立?以個案公司為例，淡江大學管理科學研究所未出服碩士論文。
(14 )魏啟林編譯(民7 7) ，行銷學精論，台北，華泰書局。
(16 )劉向上(民73) ，「如何從事銷售預測」，行銷與推銷，第65 卷，12 月， PP.85-91 。

2 、英文部份
(1)Aaker, D.A.(1984), Strategic Market Management, Taipei, Huatai Book Store.
(2)Barron, M. and D. Targett(1988), “Managing Forecasts”User and Expert”, Management Decision, Vol.26, pp.41-44.
(3)Buchin, S. and T.A Davidson(1983), “Computer-Aided Sales Forecasting: How the Skeptics Can learn to Love It”, Business Marketing, Vol.68, pp.24-81.
(4)Bernstein, G.L.(1984), “The Art of Using Forecasts Effectively”, Directors & Boards, Vol.8 pp.23-26.
(5) Beebs, K. and J. Malehorn(1987), “Structural Change—An Overview:Problems, Causes, Tests and Solutions”, Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.6, pp.13-16.
(6)Chambers, J., S. Mullick and D. Smith(1974), An Executive’s Guide to Forecasting, N.Y.:John Wiley and Sons.
(7)Chandler, A.D.(1962), Strategy and Structure, Cambridge MA:The MIT Press.
(8)Cooley, T. and E. Prescott(1976),”Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation”, Econometrica, 44, pp.167-184.
(9) Dill, W.R.(1958), “Environment as an Influence on Managerial Autonomy”, Administrative science Quarterly, Vol.2, March, pp.409-443.
(10)Duncan, R.B.(1972), “Characteristics of Organizational Environments and Perceived Environmental Uncertainty”, Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol.17, Sep, pp.315.
(11)Gross, C.W.(1988), “Bridging the Communications Gap Between Managers and Forecasters”, Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.6, pp.6-9.
(12)Hafer, C.W. and D.E. Schendel (1978), Strategy Formulation: Analytical Concepts, St. Paul: West Publishing Company.
(13)Ha11, R.H. (972), Organizations: Structure and Process, Engle-Wood Chiffs,N.J. Prentice-Hall, Inc. pp.297-324.
(14)Kress, G. and J. Snyder (1988), "ABC of Box-Jenkins Models", Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.7, pp.2-8.
(15)Kotler, P. (1988), Marketing Management: Analysis, Planning, and Control, Sixth edition, Prentice Hall. Inc.
(16)Migliaro, A. (984), "How to Sep up and Operate a Formal Forecasting System: Part I", Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.3,pp.2-6.
(17)Narchal, R.M., K. Kittappa and P. Bhattacharya (1987), "An Environmental Scanning System for Business Planning", Long Range Planning ,Vol.20, pp.96-105.
(18)Pindyck, R.S. and D.L . Rubinfeld (1981), Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, Second Edition?, McGraw-Hall Book Company .
(19)Porter, M.R. (1980), Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Anslyzing Industries and Competitors, N.Y.: The Free Press.
(20)Rice, G. and E. Mahmoud 09~O), "Political Risk Forecasting by Canadian Firms", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6,pp.89-120.
(21)SAS User`s Guide: ETS, Version 5 edition (1985), Cary: SAS Institute Inc.
(22)SAS Procedure Guide for Personal Computer, Version 6 Edition(1985), Cary, Institute Inc.
(23)Simon, H.A. (960), The New Science of Management Decision, N. Y.:Harper & Row, pp.40-42.
(24)Simmons, L.F., L.P. simmons and G. Wright (1988), "Forecasting Using a Decision Support System", Journal of Business Forecasting,Vol. 7, pp.16-19.
(25)Scheibe, M., M. Skutsch and J. Schofer (1975), "Experimentsin Delphi Methodology", The Delphi Method, pp.262-287.
(26)Vandaele, W. (1983), Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models,Academic Press, Inc.
(27)Wheelwright, S. and S.Makridakis(1977), Forecasting Methods for Management, 2nd edition, N.Y. :John Wiley and Sons.
(28)Weitz, R.R. (1986), "NOSTRADAMUS: A Knowledge-Based Forecasting Advisor", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.2, pp.273-283
(30)Yelsey, A.A. (1984), "Multiple Image Forecasting", Planning Review, Vol.12,pp.27-29.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
企業管理學系
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004831
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 周文賢zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳錦滄zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 陳錦滄zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 1991en_US
dc.date (日期) 1990en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-May-2016 16:58:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-May-2016 16:58:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-May-2016 16:58:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002004831en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/89539-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 企業管理學系zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 1、前言----------------1
1.1 研究動機----------------1
1.2 研究目的----------------2
1.3 研究範圍----------------2
1.4 章節結構----------------3
2、文獻探討----------------5
2.1 企業經營環境與商情構面----------------5
2.2 商情預測理論之發展----------------10
2.3 預測方法與執行----------------13
3、商情預測理論架構----------------16
3.1 商情預測之概念----------------16
3.2 企業商情結構----------------21
3.3 企業特質分析----------------36
3.4 預測項目選擇----------------40
3.5 資料蒐集----------------44
3.6 統計分析----------------50
3.7 管理決策支援----------------72
4、商情預測實務運作----------------75
4.1 個案公司簡介----------------75
4.2 企業特質分析----------------75
4.3 預測項目選擇----------------80
4.4 個人電腦商情預測架構-----------------86
4.5 錯體環境頭測----------------89
4.6 產業環境預測----------------106
4.7 管理決策支援------------------------------118
5、結論----------------121
5.1 研究發現----------------121
5.2 研究限制----------------122
5.3 後續研究之建議----------------123
參考文獻----------------124
附錄A 個人電腦產業技術預測問卷----------------128		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004831en_US
dc.title (題名) 商情預測理論架構與實務運作以個案公司為例zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. 中文部分

(1)宇宗先(民6 1)，經濟預測，中央研究院經濟研究所。
(2) 方世杰(民7 7)，市場預測方法一百種，台北，書泉出版社。
(3) 司徒達賢(民58) ，「台灣企業之環境分析」，企銀季刊，第三卷，第一期7 月， PP.32 。
(4) 台灣區電工器材同業公會(民80) ，台種區電工器材同業公會會員名錄。
(5 )周文賢(民79) ，時間序列分析未出版之課堂講義，政治大學統計研究所。
(6) 林建山(民76) ，商情預測?技術與實務，台北，環球經濟社。
(7) 林茂文(民75) ，時間序列分析與頭測，第二版，台北，華泰書局。
(8) 郭明哲(民74) ，預測方法?理論與實例，第七版，台北，中興管理顧問公司。
(9) 郭崑謨(民73) ，企業管理?總系統導向，修訂版，台北，華泰書局。
(10) 陳定國，黃俊英(民58) ，企業研究應用技街大全，台北，大世紀出版公司。
(11)黃俊英(民76) ，行銷研究:管理與技街，第二版，台北，華泰書局。
(12 )資策會市場情報中心(各月份) ，資訊工業透析。
(13 )葉進成(民78) ，行銷資訊系統之建立?以個案公司為例，淡江大學管理科學研究所未出服碩士論文。
(14 )魏啟林編譯(民7 7) ，行銷學精論，台北，華泰書局。
(16 )劉向上(民73) ，「如何從事銷售預測」，行銷與推銷，第65 卷，12 月， PP.85-91 。

2 、英文部份
(1)Aaker, D.A.(1984), Strategic Market Management, Taipei, Huatai Book Store.
(2)Barron, M. and D. Targett(1988), “Managing Forecasts”User and Expert”, Management Decision, Vol.26, pp.41-44.
(3)Buchin, S. and T.A Davidson(1983), “Computer-Aided Sales Forecasting: How the Skeptics Can learn to Love It”, Business Marketing, Vol.68, pp.24-81.
(4)Bernstein, G.L.(1984), “The Art of Using Forecasts Effectively”, Directors & Boards, Vol.8 pp.23-26.
(5) Beebs, K. and J. Malehorn(1987), “Structural Change—An Overview:Problems, Causes, Tests and Solutions”, Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.6, pp.13-16.
(6)Chambers, J., S. Mullick and D. Smith(1974), An Executive’s Guide to Forecasting, N.Y.:John Wiley and Sons.
(7)Chandler, A.D.(1962), Strategy and Structure, Cambridge MA:The MIT Press.
(8)Cooley, T. and E. Prescott(1976),”Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation”, Econometrica, 44, pp.167-184.
(9) Dill, W.R.(1958), “Environment as an Influence on Managerial Autonomy”, Administrative science Quarterly, Vol.2, March, pp.409-443.
(10)Duncan, R.B.(1972), “Characteristics of Organizational Environments and Perceived Environmental Uncertainty”, Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol.17, Sep, pp.315.
(11)Gross, C.W.(1988), “Bridging the Communications Gap Between Managers and Forecasters”, Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.6, pp.6-9.
(12)Hafer, C.W. and D.E. Schendel (1978), Strategy Formulation: Analytical Concepts, St. Paul: West Publishing Company.
(13)Ha11, R.H. (972), Organizations: Structure and Process, Engle-Wood Chiffs,N.J. Prentice-Hall, Inc. pp.297-324.
(14)Kress, G. and J. Snyder (1988), "ABC of Box-Jenkins Models", Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.7, pp.2-8.
(15)Kotler, P. (1988), Marketing Management: Analysis, Planning, and Control, Sixth edition, Prentice Hall. Inc.
(16)Migliaro, A. (984), "How to Sep up and Operate a Formal Forecasting System: Part I", Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.3,pp.2-6.
(17)Narchal, R.M., K. Kittappa and P. Bhattacharya (1987), "An Environmental Scanning System for Business Planning", Long Range Planning ,Vol.20, pp.96-105.
(18)Pindyck, R.S. and D.L . Rubinfeld (1981), Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, Second Edition?, McGraw-Hall Book Company .
(19)Porter, M.R. (1980), Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Anslyzing Industries and Competitors, N.Y.: The Free Press.
(20)Rice, G. and E. Mahmoud 09~O), "Political Risk Forecasting by Canadian Firms", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6,pp.89-120.
(21)SAS User`s Guide: ETS, Version 5 edition (1985), Cary: SAS Institute Inc.
(22)SAS Procedure Guide for Personal Computer, Version 6 Edition(1985), Cary, Institute Inc.
(23)Simon, H.A. (960), The New Science of Management Decision, N. Y.:Harper & Row, pp.40-42.
(24)Simmons, L.F., L.P. simmons and G. Wright (1988), "Forecasting Using a Decision Support System", Journal of Business Forecasting,Vol. 7, pp.16-19.
(25)Scheibe, M., M. Skutsch and J. Schofer (1975), "Experimentsin Delphi Methodology", The Delphi Method, pp.262-287.
(26)Vandaele, W. (1983), Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models,Academic Press, Inc.
(27)Wheelwright, S. and S.Makridakis(1977), Forecasting Methods for Management, 2nd edition, N.Y. :John Wiley and Sons.
(28)Weitz, R.R. (1986), "NOSTRADAMUS: A Knowledge-Based Forecasting Advisor", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.2, pp.273-283
(30)Yelsey, A.A. (1984), "Multiple Image Forecasting", Planning Review, Vol.12,pp.27-29.		zh_TW