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題名 自動化技術在台灣擴散之相關研究 : 以創新擴散模型為分析工具
作者 莊國瑞
貢獻者 賴士葆
莊國瑞
日期 1991
1990
上傳時間 2-May-2016 16:59:50 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究所是以貝斯擴散模型為分析工具，探討自動化技術(設備)在我國擴散的情形。本研究之動機有五:(1)同時解除貝斯基本模型中的數項假設，以提出新的擴散模型，使新模型比過去的模型有更好的預測能力。(2)使用研究中所發展的新模型，探討自動化技術在台灣廠商間擴散的情形。(3)根據採用者對各項技術之知覺，探討各項技術在不同屬性構面的特性。(4) 使用技術屬性指標將技術分群，探討不同群體的技術在擴散型態上的差異。(5) 探討技術類型、企業技術政策、及技術採用時機之關係，並發展相關命題。研究方法是以非線性最小平方法導出七項技術之擴散模型;接著以因素及集群分析進行技術屬性分析及技術分群;最後則以個案研究探討技術特性、企業技術政策、採用時機三者之間的關係。研究中分別就三方面提出結論:(1)七種自動化技術在台灣五大行業擴散程度之結論。(2) 技術屬性分析及分群之相關結論。(3)技術特性、企業技術政策、技術採用時機三者之間關係的相關命題。研究最後並提出對企業及對研究機構的涵義，及後續研究之建議。
參考文獻 國內部份
尹啟銘(民78)，"產品創新自由度、企業策略與技術政策之關係－台灣資訊電子業實證研究"管理評論，國立政治大學企業管理研究所出版，民國78 年7 月。
王建彬(民79)，"我國工業機器人使用現況分析"，機械工業雜誌，79年7月。
何雍慶、周逸衡(民74 )譯，P. Kotler原著，行銷管理－分析、規劃與控制，第五版，台北華泰書局。
周文賢(民79) , SAS/STAT 講議，教育部電子計算機中心。
林慧貞(民77年)，我國自動化技術擴散之研究，國立台大經濟研究所未出版碩士論文。
洪德昌(民78 年)，我國光電科技擴散之實證研究，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所未出版碩士論文。
施顏祥(民77 年) ，科技發展與管理，高立圖書有限公司。
翁明祥(民78) ，"技術創新政策與事業經營策略的配合對技術創新績效之影響－台灣合成樹脂業實證研究"，管理評論，國立政治大學企業管理研究所出版，民國78 年7 月。
陳詩豪(民國77 年)，廠商特性與技術擴散－理論性關係，國立中央大學產業經濟研未所未出版碩士論文。
張應當(民79 年) ，”國內CAD/CAM 使用現況分析” ，機械工業雜誌, 79年7月。
曾煥堂(民79年) ，”探討FA、FMS、CIM物流主角的自動化倉儲系統自動化科技， 1990 年6 月。
曾麗蓉(民78 年) ，我國生產自動化技術擴散之研究，國立中央大學產業濟經研究所未出版碩士論文。
賴士葆(民76 年) ， "企業技術特性與新產品發展績效相關之研究"，管理評論，國立政治大學企業管理研究所出版，民國76 年7 月。
中華民國、台灣地區第五次生產自動化調查報告，經濟部統計處編印，民國79 年10 月。
中華民國、台灣地區工廠校正暨營運調查報告，經濟部工業區統計調查聯繫小組編印，民國78 年12 月。


國外部份
Bass, L. A. (1969)," A New Product Growth Model for Consummer Durables , " Management Science, 15 (Jan.)
Bayus, B. L. (1987)," Forecasting Sales of New Contingent Product: An Application to the Compact Disc Market," Journal of Product Innovation Management, 4 (Dec.) , 243 -55.
Blackman, S.Y. (1974) ," The Market Dynamics of Technological Substitutions，" Technological Forecasting and Social Change , 6 (Feb.) , 41-63.
Bhalla, S.K. (1987) , The Effective Management of Technology: A Chanlenge for Corporations，Columbus, Richard: Battelle.
Chow, G. C. (1967) ," Technological Change and the Demand for Computers," American Economics Review , 57 (Dec.) , 1117 - 20
Dodson, J.A. and Muller,E. (1978) ," Models of New Product Diffusion Through Advertising and Word-of-Mouth," Management Science, 24 (Nov.) ,1568-78.
Fisher, J.C. and Pry, R.H. (1971) ," A Simple Substitution Model for Technological Change, " Technology Forecasting and Social Change, 2 (May.) ,75-88.
Fourt, L.A. and Woodlock, J.W. (1960) ," Early Prediction of Marketing Success for Grocery Products, " Journal of Marketing,25 (Oct.) ,31-8.
Friar J. and Horwitch M. (1988) ," The Emergence of Technology Strategy: A New Dimension of Strategic Management, in Technology in the Modern Corporation:A Strategic Perspective , ed. by Horwitch , NY : Pergamon Press Inc.
Globerman, S. (1975), " Technological Diffusion in the Canadian Tool and Die Industry, " Review of Economics and Statistics, 57 , 428-34
Horsky , D. (1990) "The Effect of Income?, Price and Infomation of the Diffusion of New Consumer Duarables," Journal of Retailng , 63 (Fall) ,243 -59
Horsky, D. and Simon, L.S. (1983) ," Adversting and the Diffusion of New Products, " Management Scinece , 1 (Winter) , 1-18.
Jain, D.C. , Mahajan, V. and Muller， E. (1989) ," Innovation Diffusion in the Presence of Supply Restrictions, " working paper, Cox School of Business, Southern Methodist University Jain, D.C. and Rao, R.C. (1989) ," Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables : Modeling , Estimation and Findings , " Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Johnson, N. I. and Kotz , S. (1970) , Continuous Unvivariate Distributions, Part Ⅰ. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company.
Jones, J.M. and Ritz, C.J. (1987) ," Incorporaing Distribution Into New Product Diffusion Models," working paper, Marketing Department, Universty of North Carolina, Chapel Hill .
Kalish, S. (1983) ," Monopolist Pricing With Dynamic Demand and Production Cost," Marketing Science, 2 (Spring) ,153-60 Kalish, S. (1985) ," A New Product Adoption Model With Pricing ,Adverstising and Uncertainty," Marketing Science,31 (Dec.) 1569-85
Kalsh, S. and Lilien, G.L. (1986) ," A Marketing Entry Timing Model for New Technologies, " Management Science ,32 (Feb.) ,194-205.
Lackman, C. L. (1978), "Gompertz Curve Forecasting : A New Product Application , " Journal of the Marketing Research Society , 20 (Jan.) , 45-7. Laroy , G. P. (1978) ," Transfer of Technology within the Multinational Enterprise"
Mahajan, V. and Muller, E. (1979) , " Innovation Diffusion and New Product Growth Models in Marketing, " Journal of Marketing, 43 (Fall) ,55-68.
Mahajan , V. , Muller, E. and Bass F. M. (1990) ," New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research, " Journal of Marketing` Vol.54\\ (Jan.) ,1-26.
Mahajan, V. Muller, E. and Srivastava, R.K. (1990)," Determination of Adopter Categories by Using Innovation Diffusion Models , " Journal of Marketing Research, 27 (Feb. ) 37-50.
Mahajan, V. and Peterson, R. A. (1985) ,Model s for Innovation Diffusion. Beverly Hill, CA: Sage Publication Inc.
Mahajan, V. and Peterson, R. A. (1979) ," Intergrating Time and Space in Technological Substitution Models," Technology Forecasting and Social Change, 14 (Aug.) ,231-41.
Mahajan,V. and Peterson, R.A. (1978) ," Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population," Management Science,24 (Nov.) ,1589-97
Maidique, M.A. and Frevola, A.L.Jr. ," Technological Strategy", in Strategic Management of Techonology and Innovation, .ed. by Burgelman and Maidique , Homewood, IL : Richard D.Irwin Inc., 233-235.
Mansfield, E. (1974) ,Industrial Reseach and Technological Innovation, N.Y. : John Willey & Sons.
Mansfield, E. (1961) ,"Technical Change and the Rate of Imitation, " Econometrica, 29 (Oct.) ,741-66.
Norton, J.A. and Bass, F.M. (1987) "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High Technology Products, " Management Science, 33 (Sep.) ,1069-86.
Peno , J. D. and Wallender, H. W. (1977) ," Acontingent Approach to Technology Policy Proposing a Cost/Benef it Analysis , " N. Y. : FMME.
Peterson, R. A. and Mahajan , V. (1978) ,”Multi -Product Growth Models , " in esearch in Marketing J. Sheth, ed. Greenwich , CT: JAI Press Inc., 201-31.
Poter , M. E. (1985) ,Competitive Advantage ,NY: Macmillan Inc. , 164-200.
Robinson , B. and Lakhani , C. (1975) "Dynamic Price Models for New Product Planning," Management Science` 10 (Jun) ,1113-22.
Roger, E.M. (1983) , Diffusion of Innovations, 3rd ed. New York: The Free Press.
Romeo, A. (1975) ," Inter - Industry and Inter -Firm Differences in the Rate of Diffusion, " Review of Economisc and Statistics, 57,311-19
Schmittlein, D.C. and Mahajan V. (1982) ," Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation DiffusionM Model of New Product Acceptance` " Marketing Science, 1 (Winter) , 57 -78
Souder, W. E. (1987) , Managing New Product Innovation , D. C. Heath and Company,P.199.
Srivastava , V. , Mahajan , V. , Ramaswami , S. N. , and Cherian, J.(1985) ," A Multi-Attribute Diffusion Model for Forecasting the Adoption of Investment Alternatives for Consumers, " Technological Forecasting and Social Change,28 (Dec.) 325-33.
Srinivasan, V. and Mason C.H. (1986) ," Nonlonear Least Square Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, 5 (Spring) ,169-78
Tornatzky, L.G. and Klein, R.J. (1982) " An Innovation Characteristics and Innovation Adoption-Implementation: A Meta-Analysis of Finding` " IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, EM -29 , 28 - 45.
Ziemer` D.R. (1985) " Growth and Saturation Scenarios: A Practical Application of Diffusion Theory, " resented at ORAS/TI MS Conference, Atlanta (Nov.)
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
企業管理學系
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004860
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 賴士葆zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 莊國瑞zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 莊國瑞zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 1991en_US
dc.date (日期) 1990en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-May-2016 16:59:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-May-2016 16:59:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-May-2016 16:59:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002004860en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/89566-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 企業管理學系zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究所是以貝斯擴散模型為分析工具，探討自動化技術(設備)在我國擴散的情形。本研究之動機有五:(1)同時解除貝斯基本模型中的數項假設，以提出新的擴散模型，使新模型比過去的模型有更好的預測能力。(2)使用研究中所發展的新模型，探討自動化技術在台灣廠商間擴散的情形。(3)根據採用者對各項技術之知覺，探討各項技術在不同屬性構面的特性。(4) 使用技術屬性指標將技術分群，探討不同群體的技術在擴散型態上的差異。(5) 探討技術類型、企業技術政策、及技術採用時機之關係，並發展相關命題。研究方法是以非線性最小平方法導出七項技術之擴散模型;接著以因素及集群分析進行技術屬性分析及技術分群;最後則以個案研究探討技術特性、企業技術政策、採用時機三者之間的關係。研究中分別就三方面提出結論:(1)七種自動化技術在台灣五大行業擴散程度之結論。(2) 技術屬性分析及分群之相關結論。(3)技術特性、企業技術政策、技術採用時機三者之間關係的相關命題。研究最後並提出對企業及對研究機構的涵義，及後續研究之建議。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論-------------------- 1
第一節 研究動機--------------------1
第三節 研究範圍--------------------3
第二節 研究目的--------------------4
第四節 研究限制--------------------5
第二章 文獻探討--------------------8
第一節 擴散的基本觀念-------------------- 8
第二節 擴散模型--------------------8
第三節 貝斯模型的修正與擴充-------------------- 16
第四節 使用擴散模型對採用者分類-------------------- 31
第五節 技術及其屬性--------------------35
第六節 影響技術在廠商間擴散的變數-------------------- 37
第七節 企業技術政策-------------------- 39
第八節 研究變數--------------------43
第三章 研究設計--------------------52
第一節 研究架構--------------------52
第二節 研究模型-------------------- 53
第三節 研究流程-------------------- 55
第四節 第一階段研究方法-------------------- 57
第五節 第二階段研究方法-------------------- - 61
第四章 擴散模型分析-------------------- 64
第一節 產值成長擴散模型-------------------- 64
第二節 七種自動化設備之動態擴散摸型-------------------- 66
第三節 擴散結果分析-------------------- 80
第四節 技術屬性分析--------------------82
第五節 技術屬性描述--------------------85
第六節 技術群體分析--------------------93
第七節 動態多屬性擴散模型--------------------95
第五章 個案分析--------------------100
第一節 採用者分類--------------------100
第二節 汽車業個案--------------------102
第三節 汽車業個案比較分析--------------------107
第四節 電子業個案--------------------108
第五節 電子業個案比較分析--------------------113
第六章 結論與建設-------------------- 115
第一節 研究結論-------------------- 115
第二節 研究命題-------------------- 119
第三節 本研究涵義-------------------- 120
第四節 後續研究建議-------------------- 122
參考書目-------------------- 123
附錄一:參數估計方法-------------------- 130
附錄二:本研究問卷-------------------- 133
附錄三:技術採用統計資料--------------------137		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004860en_US
dc.title (題名) 自動化技術在台灣擴散之相關研究 : 以創新擴散模型為分析工具zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 國內部份
尹啟銘(民78)，"產品創新自由度、企業策略與技術政策之關係－台灣資訊電子業實證研究"管理評論，國立政治大學企業管理研究所出版，民國78 年7 月。
王建彬(民79)，"我國工業機器人使用現況分析"，機械工業雜誌，79年7月。
何雍慶、周逸衡(民74 )譯，P. Kotler原著，行銷管理－分析、規劃與控制，第五版，台北華泰書局。
周文賢(民79) , SAS/STAT 講議，教育部電子計算機中心。
林慧貞(民77年)，我國自動化技術擴散之研究，國立台大經濟研究所未出版碩士論文。
洪德昌(民78 年)，我國光電科技擴散之實證研究，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所未出版碩士論文。
施顏祥(民77 年) ，科技發展與管理，高立圖書有限公司。
翁明祥(民78) ，"技術創新政策與事業經營策略的配合對技術創新績效之影響－台灣合成樹脂業實證研究"，管理評論，國立政治大學企業管理研究所出版，民國78 年7 月。
陳詩豪(民國77 年)，廠商特性與技術擴散－理論性關係，國立中央大學產業經濟研未所未出版碩士論文。
張應當(民79 年) ，”國內CAD/CAM 使用現況分析” ，機械工業雜誌, 79年7月。
曾煥堂(民79年) ，”探討FA、FMS、CIM物流主角的自動化倉儲系統自動化科技， 1990 年6 月。
曾麗蓉(民78 年) ，我國生產自動化技術擴散之研究，國立中央大學產業濟經研究所未出版碩士論文。
賴士葆(民76 年) ， "企業技術特性與新產品發展績效相關之研究"，管理評論，國立政治大學企業管理研究所出版，民國76 年7 月。
中華民國、台灣地區第五次生產自動化調查報告，經濟部統計處編印，民國79 年10 月。
中華民國、台灣地區工廠校正暨營運調查報告，經濟部工業區統計調查聯繫小組編印，民國78 年12 月。


國外部份
Bass, L. A. (1969)," A New Product Growth Model for Consummer Durables , " Management Science, 15 (Jan.)
Bayus, B. L. (1987)," Forecasting Sales of New Contingent Product: An Application to the Compact Disc Market," Journal of Product Innovation Management, 4 (Dec.) , 243 -55.
Blackman, S.Y. (1974) ," The Market Dynamics of Technological Substitutions，" Technological Forecasting and Social Change , 6 (Feb.) , 41-63.
Bhalla, S.K. (1987) , The Effective Management of Technology: A Chanlenge for Corporations，Columbus, Richard: Battelle.
Chow, G. C. (1967) ," Technological Change and the Demand for Computers," American Economics Review , 57 (Dec.) , 1117 - 20
Dodson, J.A. and Muller,E. (1978) ," Models of New Product Diffusion Through Advertising and Word-of-Mouth," Management Science, 24 (Nov.) ,1568-78.
Fisher, J.C. and Pry, R.H. (1971) ," A Simple Substitution Model for Technological Change, " Technology Forecasting and Social Change, 2 (May.) ,75-88.
Fourt, L.A. and Woodlock, J.W. (1960) ," Early Prediction of Marketing Success for Grocery Products, " Journal of Marketing,25 (Oct.) ,31-8.
Friar J. and Horwitch M. (1988) ," The Emergence of Technology Strategy: A New Dimension of Strategic Management, in Technology in the Modern Corporation:A Strategic Perspective , ed. by Horwitch , NY : Pergamon Press Inc.
Globerman, S. (1975), " Technological Diffusion in the Canadian Tool and Die Industry, " Review of Economics and Statistics, 57 , 428-34
Horsky , D. (1990) "The Effect of Income?, Price and Infomation of the Diffusion of New Consumer Duarables," Journal of Retailng , 63 (Fall) ,243 -59
Horsky, D. and Simon, L.S. (1983) ," Adversting and the Diffusion of New Products, " Management Scinece , 1 (Winter) , 1-18.
Jain, D.C. , Mahajan, V. and Muller， E. (1989) ," Innovation Diffusion in the Presence of Supply Restrictions, " working paper, Cox School of Business, Southern Methodist University Jain, D.C. and Rao, R.C. (1989) ," Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables : Modeling , Estimation and Findings , " Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Johnson, N. I. and Kotz , S. (1970) , Continuous Unvivariate Distributions, Part Ⅰ. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company.
Jones, J.M. and Ritz, C.J. (1987) ," Incorporaing Distribution Into New Product Diffusion Models," working paper, Marketing Department, Universty of North Carolina, Chapel Hill .
Kalish, S. (1983) ," Monopolist Pricing With Dynamic Demand and Production Cost," Marketing Science, 2 (Spring) ,153-60 Kalish, S. (1985) ," A New Product Adoption Model With Pricing ,Adverstising and Uncertainty," Marketing Science,31 (Dec.) 1569-85
Kalsh, S. and Lilien, G.L. (1986) ," A Marketing Entry Timing Model for New Technologies, " Management Science ,32 (Feb.) ,194-205.
Lackman, C. L. (1978), "Gompertz Curve Forecasting : A New Product Application , " Journal of the Marketing Research Society , 20 (Jan.) , 45-7. Laroy , G. P. (1978) ," Transfer of Technology within the Multinational Enterprise"
Mahajan, V. and Muller, E. (1979) , " Innovation Diffusion and New Product Growth Models in Marketing, " Journal of Marketing, 43 (Fall) ,55-68.
Mahajan , V. , Muller, E. and Bass F. M. (1990) ," New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research, " Journal of Marketing` Vol.54\\ (Jan.) ,1-26.
Mahajan, V. Muller, E. and Srivastava, R.K. (1990)," Determination of Adopter Categories by Using Innovation Diffusion Models , " Journal of Marketing Research, 27 (Feb. ) 37-50.
Mahajan, V. and Peterson, R. A. (1985) ,Model s for Innovation Diffusion. Beverly Hill, CA: Sage Publication Inc.
Mahajan, V. and Peterson, R. A. (1979) ," Intergrating Time and Space in Technological Substitution Models," Technology Forecasting and Social Change, 14 (Aug.) ,231-41.
Mahajan,V. and Peterson, R.A. (1978) ," Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population," Management Science,24 (Nov.) ,1589-97
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