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題名 季盈餘資訊內容 : 隨機優勢模式與資本資產定價模式之比較 作者 林淑鈴 貢獻者 劉維琪
林淑鈴日期 1991
1990上傳時間 2-May-2016 17:00:07 (UTC+8) 摘要 研究動機:資本市場的健全與否,對資金的借貸融通有密切的關係,而國內資本市場以股票市場為主,故股票市場成為國內長期資金供需的主要管道。而季盈餘為傳達公司經營績效與財務狀況給投資者的重要資訊,根據國外之研究顯示:季盈餘含有資訊內容,但國內之研究結果發現尚無一致結論,但較偏無資訊內容。根據研究文獻發現:過去的研究方法大部份以資本資產定價模式與市場模式為主,高蘭芬(1990) 採用較國內研究更具檢定力的方法一最大概似比率檢定,再度驗證資本資產定價模式在國內股市的適用性,其結論為在作市場效率性檢定時,不宜採用資本資產定價模式,而應把重點放在其他的理論。Falk 與Levy(1989) 以隨機優勢模式實證股市對季盈餘的反映,結果發現市場符合半強式效率假說,此研究結果與Watts(1978) 的研究結果不同,但依然無法判斷資本資產定價模式與隨機優勢模式的適用時機,因此本研究再採Brown 與Warner (1980) 的摸擬研究方法,試圖比較兩模式的檢定能力與適用時機。 參考文獻 一、中文部份1 .王官品,「台灣股票市場本益比與股票投資組合投資績效關係之研究」,國立中興大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國68年6月。2 朱敬一,「個體經濟分析」,雙葉書廊,民國79年8月出版,91-106 頁。3. 朱萬壽,「投資期間對資本資產定價模式影響之研究」,交通大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國70年6月。4. 杜金龍,「資本資產定價模式於證券投資之應用」,交通大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國70年6月。5. 余尚武,「台灣證券市場股票上市公司盈餘宣告所合資訊內容之研究」,台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國75年6月。6. 林鎮邦,「資本資產定價模式運用於台灣股票市場之研究」,政治大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國68年6月。7. 林秋蓮, ,「CAPM 、APT應用於台灣上市股票報酬率之比較性研究」 交通大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國75年6月。8. 林炯垚,"半強勢效率資本市場檢定之實證方法",管理評論 民國77年7月,45- -68 頁。9. 林金源,「股價變動因素影響資本資產定價模式解釋能力之研究」,中山大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國78年6月。10. 林維珩,「台灣上市公司盈餘預測:時間系列與公司預期比較暨聯合效益分析」,政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文,民國79年6月。11. 林煜宗,"現代投資學一制度、理論與實證",三民書局,民國72年, 479-485 頁。12. 周文賢、游文清合著,「計量經濟與時間序列分析-SAS/ETS之運用」,民國79年6月更新版。13. 高蘭芬,「資本資產定價模式於台灣證券市場之實證研究一概度比檢定法之應用」,台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國79年6月。14. 陳鄢福,「資本資產定價模式運用於台灣股票市場之研究」,政治大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國68年6月。15. 陳基國,「隨機優勢理論及應用」,淡江大學管理科學研究所管理科學組未出版碩士論文,民國70年6月。16. 陳妙華,「不頻繁交易對證券系統風險之影響」,中山大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國78年6月。17. 張鴻基,「台灣地區股票上市公司每季盈餘時間數列特性及資訊內容之研究」,台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國72年6月。18. 曾祥琳,「每季盈餘公告對股票成交量影響之研究」,成功大學工業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國78年6月。19. 劉智賢,「機率優越性詆論在台灣股票市場應用之研究」,台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國72年7月。20. 劉維琪、黃鉦堤、劉玉珍,"台灣證券市場公司規模與盈餘宣告所合資訊內容之實證研究",管理科學學報,民國79年5月,第七卷地一期31- 48 頁。21. 潘明全、黃俊英、吳靜吉," 個人投資股票行為傾向之研究一Fishbein模式之應用",管理評論,民國79年7月, 105-119 頁。22. 謝繼茂,「台灣股票市場本益比與股票頭資組合頭資績效關係之研究」,台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國68年6月。23. 簡明真,「季盈餘宣告對進出喊價價差的影響」,政治大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國79年6月。24. 顏月珠,「商用統計學」,三民書局,民國75年7月,527-528頁二、英文部份1.Arditti ,F.D. 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國立政治大學
企業管理學系資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004868 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 劉維琪 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林淑鈴 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 林淑鈴 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 1991 en_US dc.date (日期) 1990 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-May-2016 17:00:07 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-May-2016 17:00:07 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-May-2016 17:00:07 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002004868 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/89574 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 企業管理學系 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 研究動機:資本市場的健全與否,對資金的借貸融通有密切的關係,而國內資本市場以股票市場為主,故股票市場成為國內長期資金供需的主要管道。而季盈餘為傳達公司經營績效與財務狀況給投資者的重要資訊,根據國外之研究顯示:季盈餘含有資訊內容,但國內之研究結果發現尚無一致結論,但較偏無資訊內容。根據研究文獻發現:過去的研究方法大部份以資本資產定價模式與市場模式為主,高蘭芬(1990) 採用較國內研究更具檢定力的方法一最大概似比率檢定,再度驗證資本資產定價模式在國內股市的適用性,其結論為在作市場效率性檢定時,不宜採用資本資產定價模式,而應把重點放在其他的理論。Falk 與Levy(1989) 以隨機優勢模式實證股市對季盈餘的反映,結果發現市場符合半強式效率假說,此研究結果與Watts(1978) 的研究結果不同,但依然無法判斷資本資產定價模式與隨機優勢模式的適用時機,因此本研究再採Brown 與Warner (1980) 的摸擬研究方法,試圖比較兩模式的檢定能力與適用時機。 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 序言(1)論文才是要(2)圖目次(4)表目次(5)第一章 緒論....................1第一節 研究動機.................... 1第二節 研究目的.................... 3第三節 研究範圍架構與內容.................... 4第四節 研究限制.................... 6第二章 文獻探討.................... 8第一節 季盈餘資訊內容.................... 8第二節 事件研究理論模式.................... 22第三節 資本資產定價模式與隨機優勢模式的比較....................39第三章 實證方法....................45第一節 資料蒐集....................45第二節 實證步驟....................49第四章 實證結果與分析....................72第一節 季盈餘ARIMA 預測模式結果分析.................... 72第二節 季盈餘資訊內容的實證結果.................... 74第三節 模擬結果分析.................... 87第五章 結論與建議....................94第一節 結論.................... 94第二節 建議.................... 96附錄....................98參考文獻....................105 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004868 en_US dc.title (題名) 季盈餘資訊內容 : 隨機優勢模式與資本資產定價模式之比較 zh_TW dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部份1 .王官品,「台灣股票市場本益比與股票投資組合投資績效關係之研究」,國立中興大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國68年6月。2 朱敬一,「個體經濟分析」,雙葉書廊,民國79年8月出版,91-106 頁。3. 朱萬壽,「投資期間對資本資產定價模式影響之研究」,交通大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國70年6月。4. 杜金龍,「資本資產定價模式於證券投資之應用」,交通大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國70年6月。5. 余尚武,「台灣證券市場股票上市公司盈餘宣告所合資訊內容之研究」,台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國75年6月。6. 林鎮邦,「資本資產定價模式運用於台灣股票市場之研究」,政治大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國68年6月。7. 林秋蓮, ,「CAPM 、APT應用於台灣上市股票報酬率之比較性研究」 交通大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國75年6月。8. 林炯垚,"半強勢效率資本市場檢定之實證方法",管理評論 民國77年7月,45- -68 頁。9. 林金源,「股價變動因素影響資本資產定價模式解釋能力之研究」,中山大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國78年6月。10. 林維珩,「台灣上市公司盈餘預測:時間系列與公司預期比較暨聯合效益分析」,政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文,民國79年6月。11. 林煜宗,"現代投資學一制度、理論與實證",三民書局,民國72年, 479-485 頁。12. 周文賢、游文清合著,「計量經濟與時間序列分析-SAS/ETS之運用」,民國79年6月更新版。13. 高蘭芬,「資本資產定價模式於台灣證券市場之實證研究一概度比檢定法之應用」,台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國79年6月。14. 陳鄢福,「資本資產定價模式運用於台灣股票市場之研究」,政治大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國68年6月。15. 陳基國,「隨機優勢理論及應用」,淡江大學管理科學研究所管理科學組未出版碩士論文,民國70年6月。16. 陳妙華,「不頻繁交易對證券系統風險之影響」,中山大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國78年6月。17. 張鴻基,「台灣地區股票上市公司每季盈餘時間數列特性及資訊內容之研究」,台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國72年6月。18. 曾祥琳,「每季盈餘公告對股票成交量影響之研究」,成功大學工業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國78年6月。19. 劉智賢,「機率優越性詆論在台灣股票市場應用之研究」,台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國72年7月。20. 劉維琪、黃鉦堤、劉玉珍,"台灣證券市場公司規模與盈餘宣告所合資訊內容之實證研究",管理科學學報,民國79年5月,第七卷地一期31- 48 頁。21. 潘明全、黃俊英、吳靜吉," 個人投資股票行為傾向之研究一Fishbein模式之應用",管理評論,民國79年7月, 105-119 頁。22. 謝繼茂,「台灣股票市場本益比與股票頭資組合頭資績效關係之研究」,台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國68年6月。23. 簡明真,「季盈餘宣告對進出喊價價差的影響」,政治大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國79年6月。24. 顏月珠,「商用統計學」,三民書局,民國75年7月,527-528頁二、英文部份1.Arditti ,F.D. 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