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題名 財務分析師盈餘預測相對準確性決定因素之實證研究
作者 許秀賓
貢獻者 吳安妮
許秀賓
日期 1991
1990
上傳時間 2-May-2016 17:02:01 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究之主要目的有二:(一)比較財務分析師與統計模式之盈餘預測準確性，及(二)探討財務分析師盈餘預測優越性(優於統計模式)之決定因素為何?本研究根據各種理論依據發展出下列六項影響財務分析師盈餘預測優越性之決定因素──盈餘變異性，公司規模大小、報紙報導之資訊、管理當局盈餘預測資訊、公司上市時間長短，及股市型態。本研究同時設立六個研究假說: (1) 當公司盈餘變異性愈大，財務分析師之盈餘預測優越性愈強，(2)當公司規模愈大，財務分析師之盈餘預測優越性愈強，(3)當公司有關之資訊報導(報紙)愈多，則財務分析師盈餘預測優越性愈強，(4)當財務分析師盈餘預測發佈日前，公司管理當局己發佈過盈餘預測資訊時，則財務分析師盈餘預測優越性強， (5) 當公司愈晚上市，則財務分析師之盈餘預測優越性愈強，及(6)空頭市場(相對於多頭市場)對財務分析師盈餘預測優越性有正面影響。
參考文獻 一、中文部份
1.吳安妮，經理人員自願揭露盈餘預測資訊給外界之決定因素──實証研究，會計評論，民國八十年二月第25期1-24 頁。
2 .林維珩，台灣上市公司盈餘預測:時間序列與公司預期之比較暨聯合效益分析，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十九年六月。
3 .何培基編譯，SAS/PC 高等統計(下冊)，松崗電腦圖書資料有限公司，民國七十八年一月初版。
4. 徐春美，期中報表預測能力之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國六十八年六月。
5 .倪安順譯，SAS基礎與統計應用使用手冊，儒林圖書有限公司，民國七十六年六月初版。
6 .游萬淵，會計盈餘預測之準確性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年六月。
7 .黃敏助，八十年代證券投資策略，鑫典，民國八十年五月。
8.劉瑞雪譯述，統計學，自印，民國七十三年八月第三次修訂三版。
9.陳長儀，證券投資與技術操作，自印，民國七十八年版十一月二十日十五版。

二、英文部份
*1.Ajinkya, B.B., and M.J. Gift. 1985. Dispersion of financial analysts` earnings forecasts and (options model) implied standard deviations of stock returns. The Journal of finance(December) :1353-1365.
2.Albrecht. W.S ., O. Johnson, L.L. Lookabill and D.J.H. Watson. 1977. A comparison of the accuracy of corporate and security analyst’s forecasts of earnings: A Comment. The Accounting Review 52(July): 736-740.
*3.Atiase. R.K. 1985. Predisclosure information. firm captialization. and security price behavior around earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting Research (Spring): 21-36.
4.Ball. R., and P. Brown. 1968. An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers. Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn): 159-178.
*5.Barry, C. B. and S.J. Brown. 1984. Differential information and the small firm effect. Journal, of Financial Economics(July): 283-294.
*6.______ ,.1985. Differential information and security market equilibrium. Journal of financial and Quantitative Analysis. (December) :407-422.
7.Berenson, M.L., D.M. Levine, and M. Goldstein. 1983. Intermediate Statistical Methods and Applications. Prentice-Hall.
8.Bhushan, R. 1989. Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11 (July): 255-274.
9.Brown, L. D. and M. S. Rozeff. 1978. The superiority of analyst forecasts as measures of expectations: evidence from earnings. The Journal of Finance 33 (March): 1-16.
10.________, R. Hagerman, P. Griffin, and M. Zmijewski. 1987. Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time series models in forecasting quarterly earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics 9 (April): 61-88.
11._______, G.D. Richardson, and S. J. Schwager. 1987. An information interpretation of financial analyst superiority in forecasting earnings. Journal of Accounting Research 22 (Spring): 49-67.
12.Collins, W. A. and W. S. Hopwood. 1980. A multivariate analysis of annual earnings forecasts generated from quarterly forecasts of financial analysts and univariate time-series model. Journal of Accounting Research 18 (Autumn): 390-406.
13.Crichfield, T., T. Dyckman, and J. Lakonishok. 1978. An evaluation of security analysts` forecasts. The Accounting Review 13 (July): 651-668.
*14.Cukierman, A. and D. Givoly. 1982. Heterogeneous earnings expectations and earnings uncertainty ----theory and evidence. Working papers, Tel Aviv University.
15.Elton, E. J. and M. J. Gruber. 1972. Earnings estimates and the accuracy of expectation data. Management Science 18 (April): B409-B424.
16.Fried, D. and D. Givoly. 1982. Financial analysts` forecasts of earnings: a better surrogate for market expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics 4:85-107.
17. Gibbons, J. D. 1975. Nonparametric Methods for Quantitative Analysis. Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
*18. Griffin, P.A. 1982.The usefulness to investors and creditors of information provided by financial reporting: a review of empirical research (Financial Accounting Standards Board. Stamford. CT).
19.Imhoff, E. A., JR., and P. V. Pare. 1982. Analysis and comparison of earnings forecast agents. Journal of Accounting Research 20 (Autumn):429-439.
20.Kross, W., B. Ro. and D. Schroeder. 1990. Earnings expectations: the analysts` information advantage. The Accounting Review 65(April): 461-476.
22.O`Brien. P. C. 1988. Analysts` forecasts as earnings expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics 10:53-83.
23.Ott, L. 1985. An Introduction to Statistical Methods and Data Analysis. Duxbury Press.
24.SAS Institute Inc. 1987. SAS System for Elementary Statistical Analysis. SAS Institute Inc.
*25.Spector. P. 1982. Research Design. Landon: Sage Publications.
26.Waymire. G. 1985. Earnings volatility and voluntary management forecast disclosure. Journal of Accounting Research 23 (Spring):268-295.
27. ________ ,1986. Additional evidence on the accuracy of analyst forecasts before and after voluntary management earnings forecast. The Accounting Review 61(January): 129-142.
*表示作者未直接參閱。
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002005065
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 吳安妮zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 許秀賓zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 許秀賓zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 1991en_US
dc.date (日期) 1990en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-May-2016 17:02:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-May-2016 17:02:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-May-2016 17:02:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002005065en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/89622-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計學系zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究之主要目的有二:(一)比較財務分析師與統計模式之盈餘預測準確性，及(二)探討財務分析師盈餘預測優越性(優於統計模式)之決定因素為何?本研究根據各種理論依據發展出下列六項影響財務分析師盈餘預測優越性之決定因素──盈餘變異性，公司規模大小、報紙報導之資訊、管理當局盈餘預測資訊、公司上市時間長短，及股市型態。本研究同時設立六個研究假說: (1) 當公司盈餘變異性愈大，財務分析師之盈餘預測優越性愈強，(2)當公司規模愈大，財務分析師之盈餘預測優越性愈強，(3)當公司有關之資訊報導(報紙)愈多，則財務分析師盈餘預測優越性愈強，(4)當財務分析師盈餘預測發佈日前，公司管理當局己發佈過盈餘預測資訊時，則財務分析師盈餘預測優越性強， (5) 當公司愈晚上市，則財務分析師之盈餘預測優越性愈強，及(6)空頭市場(相對於多頭市場)對財務分析師盈餘預測優越性有正面影響。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論................................... 1
第一節 研究動機..................................1
第二節 研究問題..................................2
第三節 研究方法..................................3
第四節 研究貢獻.................................. 3
第二章 文獻探討.................................. 6
第一節 比較盈餘預測準確性--財務分析師與統計模式之相關文獻......................6
第二節 國內實證研究--比較統計模式盈餘預測準確性..................................11
第三節 財務分析師盈餘預測準確性優於統計模式(優越性)決定因素之相關文獻.................................. 18
第四節 研究之延伸..................................33
第三章 研究方法論..................................44
第一節 觀念性架構. ..................................44
第二節 研究設計..................................44
第三節 變數之衡量..................................46
第四節 研究假說..................................53
第五節 抽樣限制條件..................................53
第六節 資料蒐集.................................. 55
第七節 資料分析方法..................................57
第四章 實證研究結果.................................. 64
第一節 財務分析師與統計模式盈餘預測準確性之比較..................................64
第二節 財務分析師盈餘預測優越性之決定因素..................................68
第五章 結論與建議. ..................................92
第一節 結論.................................. 92
第二節 研究限制..................................93
第三節 建議.................................. 94
參考書目..................................96		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002005065en_US
dc.title (題名) 財務分析師盈餘預測相對準確性決定因素之實證研究zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部份
1.吳安妮，經理人員自願揭露盈餘預測資訊給外界之決定因素──實証研究，會計評論，民國八十年二月第25期1-24 頁。
2 .林維珩，台灣上市公司盈餘預測:時間序列與公司預期之比較暨聯合效益分析，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十九年六月。
3 .何培基編譯，SAS/PC 高等統計(下冊)，松崗電腦圖書資料有限公司，民國七十八年一月初版。
4. 徐春美，期中報表預測能力之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國六十八年六月。
5 .倪安順譯，SAS基礎與統計應用使用手冊，儒林圖書有限公司，民國七十六年六月初版。
6 .游萬淵，會計盈餘預測之準確性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年六月。
7 .黃敏助，八十年代證券投資策略，鑫典，民國八十年五月。
8.劉瑞雪譯述，統計學，自印，民國七十三年八月第三次修訂三版。
9.陳長儀，證券投資與技術操作，自印，民國七十八年版十一月二十日十五版。

二、英文部份
*1.Ajinkya, B.B., and M.J. Gift. 1985. Dispersion of financial analysts` earnings forecasts and (options model) implied standard deviations of stock returns. The Journal of finance(December) :1353-1365.
2.Albrecht. W.S ., O. Johnson, L.L. Lookabill and D.J.H. Watson. 1977. A comparison of the accuracy of corporate and security analyst’s forecasts of earnings: A Comment. The Accounting Review 52(July): 736-740.
*3.Atiase. R.K. 1985. Predisclosure information. firm captialization. and security price behavior around earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting Research (Spring): 21-36.
4.Ball. R., and P. Brown. 1968. An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers. Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn): 159-178.
*5.Barry, C. B. and S.J. Brown. 1984. Differential information and the small firm effect. Journal, of Financial Economics(July): 283-294.
*6.______ ,.1985. Differential information and security market equilibrium. Journal of financial and Quantitative Analysis. (December) :407-422.
7.Berenson, M.L., D.M. Levine, and M. Goldstein. 1983. Intermediate Statistical Methods and Applications. Prentice-Hall.
8.Bhushan, R. 1989. Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11 (July): 255-274.
9.Brown, L. D. and M. S. Rozeff. 1978. The superiority of analyst forecasts as measures of expectations: evidence from earnings. The Journal of Finance 33 (March): 1-16.
10.________, R. Hagerman, P. Griffin, and M. Zmijewski. 1987. Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time series models in forecasting quarterly earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics 9 (April): 61-88.
11._______, G.D. Richardson, and S. J. Schwager. 1987. An information interpretation of financial analyst superiority in forecasting earnings. Journal of Accounting Research 22 (Spring): 49-67.
12.Collins, W. A. and W. S. Hopwood. 1980. A multivariate analysis of annual earnings forecasts generated from quarterly forecasts of financial analysts and univariate time-series model. Journal of Accounting Research 18 (Autumn): 390-406.
13.Crichfield, T., T. Dyckman, and J. Lakonishok. 1978. An evaluation of security analysts` forecasts. The Accounting Review 13 (July): 651-668.
*14.Cukierman, A. and D. Givoly. 1982. Heterogeneous earnings expectations and earnings uncertainty ----theory and evidence. Working papers, Tel Aviv University.
15.Elton, E. J. and M. J. Gruber. 1972. Earnings estimates and the accuracy of expectation data. Management Science 18 (April): B409-B424.
16.Fried, D. and D. Givoly. 1982. Financial analysts` forecasts of earnings: a better surrogate for market expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics 4:85-107.
17. Gibbons, J. D. 1975. Nonparametric Methods for Quantitative Analysis. Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
*18. Griffin, P.A. 1982.The usefulness to investors and creditors of information provided by financial reporting: a review of empirical research (Financial Accounting Standards Board. Stamford. CT).
19.Imhoff, E. A., JR., and P. V. Pare. 1982. Analysis and comparison of earnings forecast agents. Journal of Accounting Research 20 (Autumn):429-439.
20.Kross, W., B. Ro. and D. Schroeder. 1990. Earnings expectations: the analysts` information advantage. The Accounting Review 65(April): 461-476.
22.O`Brien. P. C. 1988. Analysts` forecasts as earnings expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics 10:53-83.
23.Ott, L. 1985. An Introduction to Statistical Methods and Data Analysis. Duxbury Press.
24.SAS Institute Inc. 1987. SAS System for Elementary Statistical Analysis. SAS Institute Inc.
*25.Spector. P. 1982. Research Design. Landon: Sage Publications.
26.Waymire. G. 1985. Earnings volatility and voluntary management forecast disclosure. Journal of Accounting Research 23 (Spring):268-295.
27. ________ ,1986. Additional evidence on the accuracy of analyst forecasts before and after voluntary management earnings forecast. The Accounting Review 61(January): 129-142.
*表示作者未直接參閱。		zh_TW