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題名 臺灣地區廠商存活的隨機程序模型與實證研究 作者 方世調 貢獻者 林祖嘉
方世調日期 1991
1990上傳時間 2-May-2016 17:11:47 (UTC+8) 參考文獻 中文部分1 .林祖嘉，工作搜尋模型，失業期間與保留工資----台灣地區大專畢業生之經驗，台灣銀行季刊，即將出版。2 .胡建修，廠商成長與吉布列法則在計量實證上之應用，政大國貿所碩士論文，民國七十九年。3 .陳肇男，台灣地區電子業廠商之加入、退出與成長，經濟論文，中研院經濟研究所，第十三卷，第一期，民國七十四年。4 .單驥，勞基法中退休制度的改進----並兼論退休、資遣與失業保險制度之整合，當前人力運用問題研討會論文集，民國七十九年，頁66-89。英文部分1. Altman, Edward I., Why Business Failure M, The Journal of Business strategy, Vol.3, No.4, 1983, pp.15-21.2. Amemiya, Takeshi , Advapced Econometrics, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1985.3. Anderson, Theodore W. Probability Models for Analyzing Time Changes in Attitudes", In Paul F. Lazarsfeld (ed.) Mathematical Thinking in the Social Sciences, Glencoe The Free Press,1954.4. Auster, Ellen R.," Owner and Organizational Characteristics of Black-and White-Owned Business: Self-Employed Blacks Bad Less Training, Fewer Resources, Less Profits, but Bad Similar Survival Rates", American Journal of Economics and Sociology vol.47 ,No.3 Jul. ,1988.5. Bates, Timothy, Small Business Viability in the urban Ghetto Journal of Regional Science, Vol.29, No.4 1989 pp.625-643.6. Behrman, Jere R. ,and Deolalikar, Anil B. ,… of the Fittest ? Duration of Survival of Manufacturing Establishments in a Developing Country",The Journal of Industrial Economics ,Vol.38 Dec . ,1989 7. Birch, David ,Job Creation in America ,New York: Free Press 1987.8. Buccino, Gerald P., "Business Failures Increasing," Secured Lender Vol.45, p.24 ,26 .9. Chiang Chin Long Introduction to stochastic Process in Biostatistics John Wiley and Sons, Inc. N. Y., 1968.10.Cox, D.R.," Regression Models and Life-Tables" Journal of Royal Statistical society Vol.34 , No.2 1972 pp.187-220.11.Cox, D.R., and Oakes, D., Analysis of Survival, Chapman and Hall 1984.12.Dadzie, Kofi Q. ,and Cho, Youngil ,"Determinants of Minority ` Business Formation and Survival :An Emairical Assessment", Journal of Small Business Management Vol.27 .JuI., 1989 pp.56-61.13.Dun and Bradstreet, "The 1981 Dun and Bradstreet Business Failure Record," Economic Report of the President, February, 1983, N.Y.14.Dunne, Timothy Roberts, Mark J. ,and Samuelson, Larry," The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants ",The Quarterly Journal of Economics Nov.,1989 p.671-6 98.15.Eatwell, J.L., Growth Profitability and Size: the Empirical Evidence Appendix in the Corporate Economy Marris" Wood ed.,1971.16.Elbers, c. and Ridder, G. True and Spurious Duration Dependence :The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model Review of Economic Studies Vol.49 1982 p.403-40917.Follman, Dean A. ,Mathew S Goldsberg and Laurie May, "Personal Characteristics, Unemployment Insurance, and the Duration of Unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, 4S, 1990, p.351-336.18.Ginsberg,R.B. ,"Semi-Markov Process and Mobility ,"Journal of Mathematical Sociology, Vol.l,1971 , p.233-262.19.Ginsberg, R.B. Timing and Duration Effects in Residential Histories and Other Longitudinal Data-I Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.9 197 9 p.311-331 ..20.Ginsberg, R.B. Timing and Duration Effects in Residential Histories and other Longitudinal Data-II Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.9 1979 p.36 9-391 .21.Goldstein,Richard etc. ,"Survival Analysis Software on MS/PC-DOS Computers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.4, 1989 p.393-414.22.Hoel, Paul G., Port, Sidney C.,and Stone, Charles J., Introduction to Stochastic Process, Houghton Mifflin Company 1972.23.Johnson,N.L. and S.Kotz Continuous Univariate Distributions -1,John Wiley and Sons Inc. ,N.Y.,1970 .24.Jovanovic, Boyan Selection and the Evolution of Industry Econometrica Vol.SO,No.3, May 1982 p.649-66925.Kalbfleisch,J.D. ,and R.L. Prentice, The statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data John Wiley and Sons Inc. ,N.Y. ,1980.26.Kiefer, N. M. , " Specification Diagnostics Based on Laguerre Alternatives for Econometric Models of Duration Journal of Econometrics Vol.28 1985 p.135-15427.Kiefer,N.M. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature,Vol.26, 1988, p.646-679.28.Lancaster, T. ," Econometric Methods for the Duration of unemployment Econometrica Vol.47, 1979 p.939-956.29.Lawless,J.F. ,Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data,John Wiley and Sons,Inc.N.Y.1982.30.Leslie, Mary ,Magdulski, George and Champion, Neil The Role of the Accountant in the Survival of Small Business ",Australian Accountant,Vol.55 Jan/Feb,1985 p.22-30.31.Lin, Chu Chia Steve Housing Demand and Residential Mobility: A Stochastic Process Model Ph.D. dissertation UCLA 1988 .32.Lomax, K.S.," Business Failures Another ExampIe of the Analysis of Failure Data", Journal of the American Statistical Association,Vol.49, Dec . , 1954 p.847-852.33.Mansfield, Edwin Entry Gibrat`s Law ,Innovation ,and the Growth of Firms AER Vol.52 1962, p.1023-1051.34.Marcus, Matityahu ,"Firm`s Exit Rates and Their Determinants Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol.16 Nov.,1967 p.10-12.35.Mcginnis, Robert ,"A Stochastic Model of Social Mobility ", American sociological Review, Vol.33, 1968 , p.712-722.36.Miller, R.G. survival Analysis John Wiley and Sons ,Inc. N.Y . 1981.37.Noura,A.A. and K.L.Q. Read, "Proportional Hazards Changepoint Models in Survival Analysis, "Applied Statistics,39, No.2, 1990, p.241-253.38.0rr, Dale "The Determinants of Entry A Study of the Canadian Manufacturing Industries, The Review of Economics and statistics,Vol.56,1974.39.Platt, Harlan D. "The Determinants of Inter-industry Failure Journal of Economics and Business Vol.41, May,1989 p.107-126.40.Post, Gerald V. ,and Moon, Son-Young A Pooled Cross-Section Time-Series Approach to Business Failure in 18 U.S. cities" ,Journal of Economics and Business, Vol.40 Feb.,1988 p.45-56.41.Preisendorfer, Peter and Voss, Thomas ,"Organizational Mortality of Small Firms: The Effects of Entrepreneurial Age and Human Capital Organization Studies Vol.11 1990, p.107-129.42.Rose, P.S., Andrew, w. t., and Giroux, G.A., "Predicting Business Failure A Macroeconomic Perspective Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Finance ,Vol.6,No.1 ,1982 ,p.20-31.43. Salant, S. W.," Search Theory and Duration Data: A Theory of Sorts Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.91, 1977, p.39-57.44.Shepherd, W.G., The Economics of Industrial Organization Prentice-Hall Inc.,1979.45.Sleeper,Lynn A. and David P. Harrington," Regression Splines in the Cox Model with Application to Covariate Effects in Liver Disease JASA, Vol.85, No.412, 1990, p.941-949.46.Staber, Udo,"Age-Dependence and Historical Effects on the Failure Rates of Worker Cooperatives: An Event-History Analysis" ,Economic and Industrial Democracy vol.10, 1989 ,p.59-8047.Van Fleet, Ella W., and Van Fleet, David D., Entrepreneurship and Black Capitalism", American Journal of Small Business,Vol.10,Fall,1985,p.31-40. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002005075 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林祖嘉 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 方世調 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 方世調 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 1991 en_US dc.date (日期) 1990 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-May-2016 17:11:47 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-May-2016 17:11:47 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-May-2016 17:11:47 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002005075 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/89874 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論第一節 研究動機與目的.................... 1第二節 研究方法及架構.................... 2第二章 文獻回顧第一節 前言.................... 6第二節 廠商失敗相關的研究方法兼論失敗的定義....................8第三節 規模大小與廠商失敗危險率的關係....................1 2第四節 廠齡與廠商失敗危險率的關係....................15第五節 成長率等其它因素與廠商失敗危險率的關係....................18第三章 理論與實證模型第一節 前言....................23....................第二節 理論模型....................24Semi-Markov 程序....................24危險函數估計式....................26 持續時間的分配型態....................28 回歸模型....................29第三節 計量模型....................32 剪斷型式....................32 概似函數....................34第四節 比較靜態....................36第四章 資料來源真實證結果分析第一節 資料來源....................42第二節 生命表估計結果....................43第三節 比例危險率模型實證結果....................48第五章 結論與建議....................58參考文獻....................61 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002005075 en_US dc.title (題名) 臺灣地區廠商存活的隨機程序模型與實證研究 zh_TW dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分1 .林祖嘉，工作搜尋模型，失業期間與保留工資----台灣地區大專畢業生之經驗，台灣銀行季刊，即將出版。2 .胡建修，廠商成長與吉布列法則在計量實證上之應用，政大國貿所碩士論文，民國七十九年。3 .陳肇男，台灣地區電子業廠商之加入、退出與成長，經濟論文，中研院經濟研究所，第十三卷，第一期，民國七十四年。4 .單驥，勞基法中退休制度的改進----並兼論退休、資遣與失業保險制度之整合，當前人力運用問題研討會論文集，民國七十九年，頁66-89。英文部分1. Altman, Edward I., Why Business Failure M, The Journal of Business strategy, Vol.3, No.4, 1983, pp.15-21.2. Amemiya, Takeshi , Advapced Econometrics, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1985.3. Anderson, Theodore W. Probability Models for Analyzing Time Changes in Attitudes", In Paul F. Lazarsfeld (ed.) Mathematical Thinking in the Social Sciences, Glencoe The Free Press,1954.4. Auster, Ellen R.," Owner and Organizational Characteristics of Black-and White-Owned Business: Self-Employed Blacks Bad Less Training, Fewer Resources, Less Profits, but Bad Similar Survival Rates", American Journal of Economics and Sociology vol.47 ,No.3 Jul. ,1988.5. Bates, Timothy, Small Business Viability in the urban Ghetto Journal of Regional Science, Vol.29, No.4 1989 pp.625-643.6. Behrman, Jere R. ,and Deolalikar, Anil B. ,… of the Fittest ? Duration of Survival of Manufacturing Establishments in a Developing Country",The Journal of Industrial Economics ,Vol.38 Dec . ,1989 7. Birch, David ,Job Creation in America ,New York: Free Press 1987.8. Buccino, Gerald P., "Business Failures Increasing," Secured Lender Vol.45, p.24 ,26 .9. Chiang Chin Long Introduction to stochastic Process in Biostatistics John Wiley and Sons, Inc. N. Y., 1968.10.Cox, D.R.," Regression Models and Life-Tables" Journal of Royal Statistical society Vol.34 , No.2 1972 pp.187-220.11.Cox, D.R., and Oakes, D., Analysis of Survival, Chapman and Hall 1984.12.Dadzie, Kofi Q. ,and Cho, Youngil ,"Determinants of Minority ` Business Formation and Survival :An Emairical Assessment", Journal of Small Business Management Vol.27 .JuI., 1989 pp.56-61.13.Dun and Bradstreet, "The 1981 Dun and Bradstreet Business Failure Record," Economic Report of the President, February, 1983, N.Y.14.Dunne, Timothy Roberts, Mark J. ,and Samuelson, Larry," The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants ",The Quarterly Journal of Economics Nov.,1989 p.671-6 98.15.Eatwell, J.L., Growth Profitability and Size: the Empirical Evidence Appendix in the Corporate Economy Marris" Wood ed.,1971.16.Elbers, c. and Ridder, G. True and Spurious Duration Dependence :The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model Review of Economic Studies Vol.49 1982 p.403-40917.Follman, Dean A. ,Mathew S Goldsberg and Laurie May, "Personal Characteristics, Unemployment Insurance, and the Duration of Unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, 4S, 1990, p.351-336.18.Ginsberg,R.B. ,"Semi-Markov Process and Mobility ,"Journal of Mathematical Sociology, Vol.l,1971 , p.233-262.19.Ginsberg, R.B. Timing and Duration Effects in Residential Histories and Other Longitudinal Data-I Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.9 197 9 p.311-331 ..20.Ginsberg, R.B. Timing and Duration Effects in Residential Histories and other Longitudinal Data-II Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.9 1979 p.36 9-391 .21.Goldstein,Richard etc. ,"Survival Analysis Software on MS/PC-DOS Computers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.4, 1989 p.393-414.22.Hoel, Paul G., Port, Sidney C.,and Stone, Charles J., Introduction to Stochastic Process, Houghton Mifflin Company 1972.23.Johnson,N.L. and S.Kotz Continuous Univariate Distributions -1,John Wiley and Sons Inc. ,N.Y.,1970 .24.Jovanovic, Boyan Selection and the Evolution of Industry Econometrica Vol.SO,No.3, May 1982 p.649-66925.Kalbfleisch,J.D. ,and R.L. Prentice, The statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data John Wiley and Sons Inc. ,N.Y. ,1980.26.Kiefer, N. M. , " Specification Diagnostics Based on Laguerre Alternatives for Econometric Models of Duration Journal of Econometrics Vol.28 1985 p.135-15427.Kiefer,N.M. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature,Vol.26, 1988, p.646-679.28.Lancaster, T. ," Econometric Methods for the Duration of unemployment Econometrica Vol.47, 1979 p.939-956.29.Lawless,J.F. ,Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data,John Wiley and Sons,Inc.N.Y.1982.30.Leslie, Mary ,Magdulski, George and Champion, Neil The Role of the Accountant in the Survival of Small Business ",Australian Accountant,Vol.55 Jan/Feb,1985 p.22-30.31.Lin, Chu Chia Steve Housing Demand and Residential Mobility: A Stochastic Process Model Ph.D. dissertation UCLA 1988 .32.Lomax, K.S.," Business Failures Another ExampIe of the Analysis of Failure Data", Journal of the American Statistical Association,Vol.49, Dec . , 1954 p.847-852.33.Mansfield, Edwin Entry Gibrat`s Law ,Innovation ,and the Growth of Firms AER Vol.52 1962, p.1023-1051.34.Marcus, Matityahu ,"Firm`s Exit Rates and Their Determinants Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol.16 Nov.,1967 p.10-12.35.Mcginnis, Robert ,"A Stochastic Model of Social Mobility ", American sociological Review, Vol.33, 1968 , p.712-722.36.Miller, R.G. survival Analysis John Wiley and Sons ,Inc. N.Y . 1981.37.Noura,A.A. and K.L.Q. Read, "Proportional Hazards Changepoint Models in Survival Analysis, "Applied Statistics,39, No.2, 1990, p.241-253.38.0rr, Dale "The Determinants of Entry A Study of the Canadian Manufacturing Industries, The Review of Economics and statistics,Vol.56,1974.39.Platt, Harlan D. "The Determinants of Inter-industry Failure Journal of Economics and Business Vol.41, May,1989 p.107-126.40.Post, Gerald V. ,and Moon, Son-Young A Pooled Cross-Section Time-Series Approach to Business Failure in 18 U.S. cities" ,Journal of Economics and Business, Vol.40 Feb.,1988 p.45-56.41.Preisendorfer, Peter and Voss, Thomas ,"Organizational Mortality of Small Firms: The Effects of Entrepreneurial Age and Human Capital Organization Studies Vol.11 1990, p.107-129.42.Rose, P.S., Andrew, w. t., and Giroux, G.A., "Predicting Business Failure A Macroeconomic Perspective Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Finance ,Vol.6,No.1 ,1982 ,p.20-31.43. Salant, S. W.," Search Theory and Duration Data: A Theory of Sorts Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.91, 1977, p.39-57.44.Shepherd, W.G., The Economics of Industrial Organization Prentice-Hall Inc.,1979.45.Sleeper,Lynn A. and David P. Harrington," Regression Splines in the Cox Model with Application to Covariate Effects in Liver Disease JASA, Vol.85, No.412, 1990, p.941-949.46.Staber, Udo,"Age-Dependence and Historical Effects on the Failure Rates of Worker Cooperatives: An Event-History Analysis" ,Economic and Industrial Democracy vol.10, 1989 ,p.59-8047.Van Fleet, Ella W., and Van Fleet, David D., Entrepreneurship and Black Capitalism", American Journal of Small Business,Vol.10,Fall,1985,p.31-40. zh_TW
