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題名 上市公司財務預測正確性之研究 作者 許宏隆 貢獻者 郭崑謨
許宏隆日期 1986 上傳時間 5-May-2016 13:51:51 (UTC+8) 參考文獻 參考書目一、中文部分:1.上市証券發行公司財務資料彙編(証交所) 69-73年度2.台灣証券交易所統計資料，69-73年度3.許士軍著，管理學(台北:東華書局，民國72年，二版)4.黃俊英著，多變量分析(民國75年，華泰書局)5.黃棋華，我國會計師從事預測簽証可行性之研究(碩士論文，政治大學會計研究所，民國73年)6.陳建榮，台灣地區股票上市公司業績發表會之內容及準確信之研究(碩士論文，台灣大學高學研究所，民國71年)7.証券統計要覽，第11-16輯8.國民經濟動向統計季報，民國75年2月份9.張紘炬著，統計學(民國74年，華泰書局)10.楊國樞等譯，行為統計學(民國67年，環球書社)11.劉原祺，台灣股票上市公司預算虛估行為的因素分折(碩士論文，政治大學企管研究所，民國67年)12.董天祥著，統計學導論(民國74年，中華徵信所)二、英文部份1 . AICPA, Explosure Draft : Standards for System for the Preparation of Financial Forecasts , 1974 , pp. l4-l5 .2 . AICPA, "Guideline for System for the Preparation of Financial Forecasts" and "Presentation and Disclosure of Financial Forecasts". 3 . Albrecht , W. S . and O. Johnson, L.L. Lookabill and D. J .H. Wa , "A Comparison of the Accuracy of Corporate and Security Analysts` Forecasts of Earnings : A Comment, "The Accounting Reciew (Oct . 1977), pp. 736-40 .4 . Asebrook R. J . and D. R. Carmichael, "Reporting on Forecasts : A Surrey of Attitudes , "The Journal of Accountancy (Aug.1973), pp. 38- 48 .5 . Backer Morton, "Financial Reporting and Security Investment Decisions," Financial Analysts Journal ( Mar.-Apr. 1971),p. 69 .6.Baker H. Kent and John A. Haslem, "Information needs of Individual Investors", Journal of Accountancy (No.1973) pp.30-35.7.Baker, Morton, "Accounting Theory, Objectives and Measurements," The Journal of Accountancy(Oct.1963), pp. 59-61.8.Barefield M. R. and Eugene E. Comiskey, "The Accuracy of Analysts` Forecasts of Earnings Per Share", The Journal of Business Research(Jul.1975),pp.242-52.9.Basi Bart A., Kenneth J. Carey, and Richard D. Twark, "A Comparison of the Accuracy of Corporate and Security Analysts` Forecasts of Earnings, "The Accounting Review (Apr,1976),p.252.10.Benjamin James and Robert H. Strawser, "The Publication of Forecasts: An Experiment," ABACUS (Dec.1974),pp. 138-46.11.Bevis H.W., "The CPAS Attest Function in Modern Society," The Journal of Accountancy,(Feb.1962),p.29.12.Bernstein Leopold A., "Financial Statement Anaysis Theory Application and Interpretation,"(Richard D. Irwin Inc.1983 3rd),pp.636-7.13.Bhaskar K. N. and H. C. Morris, "The Accuracy of Brokers` Protit Forecasts in the UK," Accounting and Business Research(soring1984).pp. 113-24.14.Birnberg J. and N. Dopouch, "A Conceptual Approach to the Framework for Disclosure", The Journal of Accountancy (Feb.l963),p.56.15.Brandon C. H., "The Disclosure of Forecasts in Annual Reports," (Ph. D. Dissertation, University of Georgia,1972).16.Burton J. C.,"A Report on the Symposium on Ethics in Corporate Financial Reporting," Financial Executive,(Jan.1972),p.30.17.Burton J. C., "Communication and Innovation in Financial Reporting," Financial Analysts Journal,(Jan.-Feb.1969),p.37.18.Clark C. and P. Elgers, "Forecasted Income Statements: An Investor Perspective," The Accounting Review.(Oct. 1973),pp.668-78.19.Cooper W. W.,N. Dopuch, and T. F. Keller, "Budgetary Disclosure and Other Suggestions for Improving Accounting Reports, "Accounting Review(Oct. 1968),p.641.20.Copeland M. Ronald and Robert J. Mariani, "Executives` Forecasts of Earnings Per Share Versus Forecasts of Naive Models," The Journal of Business(Oct. 1972),pp.497-98.21.Corless J. C. and C. T. Norgard, "User Reaction to CPA Reports on Forecasts," Journal of Accountancy(Aug. 1974),pp.46-54,22.Cragg J. G. and B. G. Malkiel, "The Consensus and Accuracy of Some Predictions of the Growth of Corporate Earnings, "The Journal of Finance,(Mar. 1968),pp.67-84,23.Crichfield T.,T. R. Dyckman and T. Lakonishok, "An Evaluation of Security Analysts` Forecasts, "The Accounting Review(Oct. 1978),pp.651-68.24.Daily R., "The Feasibility of Reporting Forecasted Data," The Accounting Review(Oct. 1971),pp,686-92.25.Elton J. Edwin and Martin J. Gruber, "Earnings Estimates and the Accuracy of Expectational Data," Management Science(Apr. 1972),pp.409-24.26.FASB, Statement of Financial Accounting Concepts No.l, "Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises,(Stamford, Conn, Nov. 1978).27.FASB, Statement Financial Accounting Concepts No.2, "Qualitat Characteristics of Accounting Information,"(Stamford, Conn: May 1980).28.Financial Executire Research Foundation, "How Accurate are Forecasts?," Financial Executive(Mar. 1973),pp.26-32.29.Foster George, "Stock Market Reaction to Estimates of Earnings per Share by Company Officials," Journal of Accounting Research(spring1973),pp.25-37.30.Gillis John G., "Legal Aspects of Corporate Forecasts, "Financial Analysts Jounral(Jan. – Febl 1973),pp.72-76.31.Green D., Jr. and J. Segall, "The Predictive Power of First Quarter Earnings Reports," Journal of Business(Jan.1967)pp.44-45.32.Guy M. Dan, "Auditing Procedures for Projected Financial Statements: A Suggested Approach," Canadian Chartered Accountant(Jun.1972)pp.24-25.33.Hagerman Robert and William Ruland, "The Accuracy of Management Forecasts," Journal of Economics and Business (spring1979),pp.l72-78.34.Hassell M. John and Robert H. Jennings, "Relative Forecast Accuracy and the Timing of Earnings Forecast Announcements," The Accounting Review(Jan. 1986),pp. 58-75.35.Ijiri Yuji, "On Budgeting Principles and Budget-Auditing Standards," The Accounting Review(Oct. 1968),p. 662.36.Jaggi Bikki, "Comparative Accuracy of Management`s Annual Earnings Forecast," Financial Management(Winter 1978),pp.24-31.37.Kapnick Harrey E., "Will Financial Forecasts Really Help Investors?," Financial Executive(Aug. 1972),pp.50-54.38.Keller R. J., "Disclosure of Projected Financial Information in Corporate Annual Reports,"(Unpublished Ph. D. Dissertation, The Louisiana State University,1973),p. l62.39.Malcolm R. R., James J. Benjamin and Robert H. Strawser, "An Examination of the Accuracy of Earnings Forecasts," Financial Management (Fall 1977),pp.78-86.40.Meigs W. B., A. N. Mosich and E. J. Larsen, Modern Advanced Accounting,(New York: Mcgraw-Hill Book Company,1975),p.343.41.Nielsen."New Challenges in Accounting," The Accounting Review,(Oct. 1968),p. 641.42.Patell James, "Corporate Forecasts of Earnings Per Share and Stock Price Behavior: Empirical Tests," Journal of Accounting Research(Autumn 1976),pp. 246-76..43.Ruland William, "The Accuracy of Forecasts by Management and by Financial Analysts," The Accounting Review(Apr. 1978),pp.439-47.44.Siegel Sindeney, Nonparametric Statistics: for the Behavior Sciences,(New York,1956,McGraw-Hill).45.Singhvis. Surendra and Harsha B. Desai,"An Emprical Analysis of the Quality of Corporate Financial Disclosure," The Accounting Review(Jan. 1971),pp. l29-38.46.Schreuder Hein and Jan Klaassen, "Contidential Revenue and Profit Forecasts by Management and Financial Analysts: Evidence from The Netherlands," The Accounting Review(Jan. 1984),pp.64-77.47.Skousen K. Fred, Robert A. Sharp, and Russel K. Tolman," Corporate Disclosure of Budgetary Data," The Journal of Accountancy(May 1972),p.50-57.48.SPSSX-User`s Guide(New York,1983,McGraw-Hill)49.Stettler Howard F., "CPA`s/Auditing/2000," The Journal of Accountancy(May 1968),pp. 58-59.50.Steward S. Jr., "Research Report on Corporate Forecasts," Financial Analysis Journal(Jan.-Feb. 1973),pp. 77-85.51.Tull D.,"The Relationship of Actual and Predicted Sales and Profits in New Product Introductions," The Journal of Business,(Jul. 1967),pp. 233-49. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
企業管理學系資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002006439 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 郭崑謨 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 許宏隆 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 許宏隆 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 1986 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-May-2016 13:51:51 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-May-2016 13:51:51 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-May-2016 13:51:51 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002006439 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/91185 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 企業管理學系 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 目錄圖表頁次………第一章 緒論………1第一節 研究背景、問題與目的………1第二節 研究架構、範圍與方法………2第三節 研究限制………4第四節 論文結構………5第二章 財務預測概論………6第一節 財務預測之沿革………6第二節 財務預測之功能………11第三節 贊成及反對財務預測之理由………14第三章 相關文獻的探討………21第一節 財務預測可行性之意見調查………21第二節 財務預測對投資行為之影響………24第三節 財務預測正確性之研究………27第四章 研究設計………42第一節 資料來源及條件………42第二節 財務預測誤差之衡量………45第三節 檢定之假設………46第四節 分析之方法………48第五章 資料之分析與討論………57第一節 財務預測正確性程度之分析………57第二節 單因子變數之比較分析………62第三節 復迴歸分析之結果………72第六章 結論及建議………96第一節 結論………96第二節 建議………98參考資料………99圖表目錄表4-1 營業額預測資料之樣本數目統計表………44表4-2 稅前淨利額預測資料之樣本數目統計表………44表4-3 K-S常態分配檢定表………50表4-4 欲檢定之假設與非母數統計之運用………51表5-1 卡方檢定結果──各年度營業額預測相對誤差表分比………59表5-2 卡方檢定結果──各年度稅前淨利額預測相對誤差百分比………60表5-3 各年度營業額預測誤差百分比描述統計………60表5-4 各年度稅前淨利額預測誤差百分比描述統計………61表5-5 兩類股票營業額預測誤差百分比描述統計………63表5-6 兩類股票稅前淨利額預測誤差百分比描述統計………63表5-7 年度間營業額預測誤差K-S檢定表………65表5-8 年度間稅前淨利額預測誤差K-S檢定表………66表5-9 行業別間營業額預測誤差K-S檢定表...............67表5-10 行業別營業額預測絕對誤差百分比統計表………68表5-11 行業別稅前淨利額預測，絕對誤差百分比統計表………69表5-12 按月別分之營業額預測誤差百分比描述統計………71表5-13 按月別分之稅前淨利額預測誤差百分比描述統計………72表5-14 史培爾曼等級相關係數表………75表5-15 營業額預測相對誤差之迴歸分析表………76表5-16 營業額預測絕對誤差之迴歸分析表………76表5-17 稅前淨利額預測相對誤差之迴歸分析表………77表5-18 稅前淨利額預測絕對誤差之迴歸分析表………77表5-19 第一類上市公司稅前淨利額預測相對誤差之迴歸分析表………80表5-20 第二類上市公司稅前淨利額預測相對誤差之迴歸分析表………80圖1-1 決策過程………82圖1-2 投資決策與財務預測………83 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002006439 en_US dc.title (題名) 上市公司財務預測正確性之研究 zh_TW dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考書目一、中文部分:1.上市証券發行公司財務資料彙編(証交所) 69-73年度2.台灣証券交易所統計資料，69-73年度3.許士軍著，管理學(台北:東華書局，民國72年，二版)4.黃俊英著，多變量分析(民國75年，華泰書局)5.黃棋華，我國會計師從事預測簽証可行性之研究(碩士論文，政治大學會計研究所，民國73年)6.陳建榮，台灣地區股票上市公司業績發表會之內容及準確信之研究(碩士論文，台灣大學高學研究所，民國71年)7.証券統計要覽，第11-16輯8.國民經濟動向統計季報，民國75年2月份9.張紘炬著，統計學(民國74年，華泰書局)10.楊國樞等譯，行為統計學(民國67年，環球書社)11.劉原祺，台灣股票上市公司預算虛估行為的因素分折(碩士論文，政治大學企管研究所，民國67年)12.董天祥著，統計學導論(民國74年，中華徵信所)二、英文部份1 . AICPA, Explosure Draft : Standards for System for the Preparation of Financial Forecasts , 1974 , pp. l4-l5 .2 . AICPA, "Guideline for System for the Preparation of Financial Forecasts" and "Presentation and Disclosure of Financial Forecasts". 3 . Albrecht , W. S . and O. Johnson, L.L. Lookabill and D. J .H. Wa , "A Comparison of the Accuracy of Corporate and Security Analysts` Forecasts of Earnings : A Comment, "The Accounting Reciew (Oct . 1977), pp. 736-40 .4 . Asebrook R. J . and D. R. Carmichael, "Reporting on Forecasts : A Surrey of Attitudes , "The Journal of Accountancy (Aug.1973), pp. 38- 48 .5 . Backer Morton, "Financial Reporting and Security Investment Decisions," Financial Analysts Journal ( Mar.-Apr. 1971),p. 69 .6.Baker H. Kent and John A. Haslem, "Information needs of Individual Investors", Journal of Accountancy (No.1973) pp.30-35.7.Baker, Morton, "Accounting Theory, Objectives and Measurements," The Journal of Accountancy(Oct.1963), pp. 59-61.8.Barefield M. R. and Eugene E. Comiskey, "The Accuracy of Analysts` Forecasts of Earnings Per Share", The Journal of Business Research(Jul.1975),pp.242-52.9.Basi Bart A., Kenneth J. Carey, and Richard D. Twark, "A Comparison of the Accuracy of Corporate and Security Analysts` Forecasts of Earnings, "The Accounting Review (Apr,1976),p.252.10.Benjamin James and Robert H. Strawser, "The Publication of Forecasts: An Experiment," ABACUS (Dec.1974),pp. 138-46.11.Bevis H.W., "The CPAS Attest Function in Modern Society," The Journal of Accountancy,(Feb.1962),p.29.12.Bernstein Leopold A., "Financial Statement Anaysis Theory Application and Interpretation,"(Richard D. Irwin Inc.1983 3rd),pp.636-7.13.Bhaskar K. N. and H. C. Morris, "The Accuracy of Brokers` Protit Forecasts in the UK," Accounting and Business Research(soring1984).pp. 113-24.14.Birnberg J. and N. Dopouch, "A Conceptual Approach to the Framework for Disclosure", The Journal of Accountancy (Feb.l963),p.56.15.Brandon C. H., "The Disclosure of Forecasts in Annual Reports," (Ph. D. Dissertation, University of Georgia,1972).16.Burton J. C.,"A Report on the Symposium on Ethics in Corporate Financial Reporting," Financial Executive,(Jan.1972),p.30.17.Burton J. C., "Communication and Innovation in Financial Reporting," Financial Analysts Journal,(Jan.-Feb.1969),p.37.18.Clark C. and P. Elgers, "Forecasted Income Statements: An Investor Perspective," The Accounting Review.(Oct. 1973),pp.668-78.19.Cooper W. W.,N. Dopuch, and T. F. Keller, "Budgetary Disclosure and Other Suggestions for Improving Accounting Reports, "Accounting Review(Oct. 1968),p.641.20.Copeland M. Ronald and Robert J. Mariani, "Executives` Forecasts of Earnings Per Share Versus Forecasts of Naive Models," The Journal of Business(Oct. 1972),pp.497-98.21.Corless J. C. and C. T. Norgard, "User Reaction to CPA Reports on Forecasts," Journal of Accountancy(Aug. 1974),pp.46-54,22.Cragg J. G. and B. G. Malkiel, "The Consensus and Accuracy of Some Predictions of the Growth of Corporate Earnings, "The Journal of Finance,(Mar. 1968),pp.67-84,23.Crichfield T.,T. R. Dyckman and T. Lakonishok, "An Evaluation of Security Analysts` Forecasts, "The Accounting Review(Oct. 1978),pp.651-68.24.Daily R., "The Feasibility of Reporting Forecasted Data," The Accounting Review(Oct. 1971),pp,686-92.25.Elton J. Edwin and Martin J. Gruber, "Earnings Estimates and the Accuracy of Expectational Data," Management Science(Apr. 1972),pp.409-24.26.FASB, Statement of Financial Accounting Concepts No.l, "Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises,(Stamford, Conn, Nov. 1978).27.FASB, Statement Financial Accounting Concepts No.2, "Qualitat Characteristics of Accounting Information,"(Stamford, Conn: May 1980).28.Financial Executire Research Foundation, "How Accurate are Forecasts?," Financial Executive(Mar. 1973),pp.26-32.29.Foster George, "Stock Market Reaction to Estimates of Earnings per Share by Company Officials," Journal of Accounting Research(spring1973),pp.25-37.30.Gillis John G., "Legal Aspects of Corporate Forecasts, "Financial Analysts Jounral(Jan. – Febl 1973),pp.72-76.31.Green D., Jr. and J. Segall, "The Predictive Power of First Quarter Earnings Reports," Journal of Business(Jan.1967)pp.44-45.32.Guy M. Dan, "Auditing Procedures for Projected Financial Statements: A Suggested Approach," Canadian Chartered Accountant(Jun.1972)pp.24-25.33.Hagerman Robert and William Ruland, "The Accuracy of Management Forecasts," Journal of Economics and Business (spring1979),pp.l72-78.34.Hassell M. John and Robert H. Jennings, "Relative Forecast Accuracy and the Timing of Earnings Forecast Announcements," The Accounting Review(Jan. 1986),pp. 58-75.35.Ijiri Yuji, "On Budgeting Principles and Budget-Auditing Standards," The Accounting Review(Oct. 1968),p. 662.36.Jaggi Bikki, "Comparative Accuracy of Management`s Annual Earnings Forecast," Financial Management(Winter 1978),pp.24-31.37.Kapnick Harrey E., "Will Financial Forecasts Really Help Investors?," Financial Executive(Aug. 1972),pp.50-54.38.Keller R. J., "Disclosure of Projected Financial Information in Corporate Annual Reports,"(Unpublished Ph. D. Dissertation, The Louisiana State University,1973),p. l62.39.Malcolm R. R., James J. Benjamin and Robert H. Strawser, "An Examination of the Accuracy of Earnings Forecasts," Financial Management (Fall 1977),pp.78-86.40.Meigs W. B., A. N. Mosich and E. J. Larsen, Modern Advanced Accounting,(New York: Mcgraw-Hill Book Company,1975),p.343.41.Nielsen."New Challenges in Accounting," The Accounting Review,(Oct. 1968),p. 641.42.Patell James, "Corporate Forecasts of Earnings Per Share and Stock Price Behavior: Empirical Tests," Journal of Accounting Research(Autumn 1976),pp. 246-76..43.Ruland William, "The Accuracy of Forecasts by Management and by Financial Analysts," The Accounting Review(Apr. 1978),pp.439-47.44.Siegel Sindeney, Nonparametric Statistics: for the Behavior Sciences,(New York,1956,McGraw-Hill).45.Singhvis. Surendra and Harsha B. Desai,"An Emprical Analysis of the Quality of Corporate Financial Disclosure," The Accounting Review(Jan. 1971),pp. l29-38.46.Schreuder Hein and Jan Klaassen, "Contidential Revenue and Profit Forecasts by Management and Financial Analysts: Evidence from The Netherlands," The Accounting Review(Jan. 1984),pp.64-77.47.Skousen K. Fred, Robert A. Sharp, and Russel K. Tolman," Corporate Disclosure of Budgetary Data," The Journal of Accountancy(May 1972),p.50-57.48.SPSSX-User`s Guide(New York,1983,McGraw-Hill)49.Stettler Howard F., "CPA`s/Auditing/2000," The Journal of Accountancy(May 1968),pp. 58-59.50.Steward S. Jr., "Research Report on Corporate Forecasts," Financial Analysis Journal(Jan.-Feb. 1973),pp. 77-85.51.Tull D.,"The Relationship of Actual and Predicted Sales and Profits in New Product Introductions," The Journal of Business,(Jul. 1967),pp. 233-49. zh_TW
