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題名 效率市場假設在利率理論之應用
作者 林文晃
貢獻者 高明瑞
林文晃
日期 1986
上傳時間 5-May-2016 16:32:39 (UTC+8)
參考文獻 參考文獻
一、中文部份
1.高明瑞:「貨幣理論與政策」課堂筆記，民國七十二年。
2.葉志鴻:「證券市場的效率:台灣股票交易的實證研究」政大經研所碩士論文，民國六十五年。
3.張清福:「台灣股票市場情報效率性的再探討──春節前後資料之運用」，淡江管研所碩士論文，民國七十三年。
4.李榮瑞:「實質利率與預期物價膨脹」，台大經研所碩士論文，民國七十二年。
5.簡仁德:「臺灣證券市場價格變動習性為隨機漫步假定之實證分析」，淡江管研所博士論文，民國七十年。
6.林煜宗:「效率市場假設」，貨幣市場簡訊，20，國際票券金融股份有限公司，民國七十二年三月十五日。

二、英文部份
1. Alexander, Sidney S. "Price movements in Speculative Markets: Trends or Random Walks", in The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, 1964 edited by Paul Cootner, Cambridge, Mass: M.I.T. Press.
2. Arrow Kenneth J. and Intriligator Michael D. ed. Handbook of Mathematical Economics Volume 1. 1981, North-Holland.
3. Bachelier, L. Theorie de la Speculation, Paris : Gauthier -Villars , 1900 Reprinted in English in(Cootner , 1967 ) , pp.l7-78 .
4 . Ball, Ray "Anomalies in Relationships Between Securities` yields and Yield-surrogates", 1978, JFE 6: pp. 103-26
5. Begg. D.K.H. The Rational Expectations Revolution in Macroeconomics Theory & Evidence, 1982, Ch.8, pp. 205-52.
6. Benninga Simon, and protopapadakis Aris, "Real and Nominalinterest rates under uncertainty : The Fisher theorem and the term structure," JPE 1983 , Vol.91, pp.856-67
7. Black, F. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restrieted Borrowing", Journal of Business, 1972 July: pp.44-55 .
8. Black, F., M.C. Jensen, and M. Scholes, "The Capital As set Pricing Model : Some Empirical Tests", In Studies in the Theory of Capital Markets, 1972, edited by M.C . Jens en , New York Praeger.
9. Bray Margaret, "Rational Expectations, Information and Asset Markets: An Introduction," Oxford Economic Papers, 1985, 37, pp.l61-95.
10. Carlson, J .A. "Short-term interest rates as predictors of inflation: comment ," AER 1977, Vol.67, pp. 469-75.
11. Cootner, Paul(ed), The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, 1967, Cambridge, Mass .: M.I.T. Press.
12. Fama, E.F. "Efficient Capital Markets: A review of theory and Empirical work," JF , 1970, 25:pp.383-423.
13._________ , "Short-Term interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation, " AER 1975 , 65 : pp.269-82 .
14._________ , Foundations of Finance: Portfolio Decision and Securities Prices, 1976 , New York.
15._________ , "Interest rates and inflation: the message of the entrails , " AER 1977, Vol. 67, pp.487-96.
16.__________, and A.B. Laffer, "Information and Capital Market", Journal of Business 44, 1971, July, pp.289-98.
17.__________ and G. "Pilliam Schwert, "Asset Returns and Inflation," JFE , Vo1.5 , (Nov.l977)pp. 115-46 .
18. Flavin, Marjorie A. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets : A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," JPE 1983, Vol. 91, pp.929-56.
19. Fraser, Donald R., "On the Accuracy and Usefulness of interest Rate Forecasts," Business Economics" 1977, Vol.l2, pp.38-44.
20. Gibbons Michael R. and Ferson Wayne, "Testing Asset pricing Models with changing. Expectations and an unobservable Market Portfolio," JFE 1985, pp.217-36.
21. Gibson, W. E. "Interest rates and Inflationary expectation: new evidence," AER 1972, Vol.62, pp.854-65.
22. Grossman, Sanford, "On the efficiency of competitive Stock Markets Where Traders have Diverse Information," JF 1976 31, pp.537-85.
23.________________, "Further results on the informational Efficiency of competitive Stock Markets," Journal of Economic Theory" 1978, 18 , pp.81-101.
24.________________ and Stiglitz Joseph E. "Information and Competitive price Systems," AER, 1976 May Vol-66 pp. 246-53.
25.__________________________________,, "The Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," AER, 1980, 70:PP-393-408
26. Harris Laurence, Monetary Theory, 1981 McGraw-Hill, Inc. Ch.l7, pp.322-341
27. Hayek, F.A. "The use of knowledge in Society," AER 1945, pp.519-30
28. Hess, P.J. and J.L. Bicksler, "Capital asset prices verses time Series models and Predictors of inflation: the expected real rate of interest and market efficiency," JFE , 1975, Vol.2, pp. 341-60
29. ____________ and Reinganum Hare R. "Efficient Capital Markets," ed. by James L. Bicksler Handbook of Financial Economics 1979, North-Holland
30. Hellwig, M.F. "Rational expectations eouilibrium with conditioning on past prices, A mean variance example," Journal of Economic Theory 1982, 26, pp. 279-312.
31. Hicks, J.R. Value and Capital, 1939, clarendon press, Oxford
32. Holden, K., D. A. Peel and J. L. Thompson , Expectations : Theory and Evidence, 1985 , St. Martin`s Press, Ch.4
33. Jensen, Michael, "Tests of Capital Market Theory and Implications of the Evidence," in Handbook of Financial Economics, North-Holland, 1979
34. Jones, David S. and Roley V. Vance, "Rational Expectations and the Expectations Model of the term Structure: A Test Using Weekly Data," JME 1983, pp.453-65.
35. Joines, D. "Short-term interest rates as predictors of inflation: Comment," AER , 1977, Vol.67, pp.476-77
36. Kendall, Maurice G. "The Analysis of Economic Time-Series, Part I Prices," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1953, 96, pp. 11-25.
37. LeRoy, Stephen F. and Richard D. Porter, "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds,`` Econometrica, 1981, 49: pp. 555-74
38. Lintner John, "Security Prices, Risk, and Maximal gains from Diversification," JF , 1965a Dec. pp. 587-615
39._______, "The Valuation of Risk Assets and the selection of Risky Investments in Stock portfolios and Capita l Budgets, " Review of Economics and Statistics, 1965b Feb. 47 , pp. l3-37.
40. Lucas Robert Z., Jr. "Econometric policy Evaluation : A Critique," in Karl Brunner and Allan H. Meltzer, eds, The Phillip scurve and Labor Market, 1976, Amsterdam and New York, North-Holland
41. Mandelbrot, B. "Forecasts of Future Prices, unbiased Markets, and Martingale Models," Journal of Business 39, 1966 Jan., pp.242-55
42. Mankiw N. Gregory, and Summers Lawrence H., "Do Long-term Interest Rates overreact to short-term Interest Rates?" BPEA 1984 , 1, pp.223- 42
43. Mayshar, Joram, "On Divergence of opinion and Imperfections in Capital Markets , " AER , 1983 March, Vol.73, pp. 114-28
44. Mishkin, Frederic S, "Efficient-Markets Theory: Implication for Monetary Policy ," BPEA 1978, Vol.3, pp.707-68
45._________________ , "Are Market forecasts Rational? , 198la AER71, pp. 293-306
46._________________, "Monetary policy and Long-term interest rates: An efficient Markets Approach," JME 1981b, 7, pp.29-55
47._________________ , "Monetary policy and Short-term interest rates : An efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," JF 1982, pp.63-72.
48.__________________, A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics, Chicago Press, 1983
49. Minford P. and D. Peel, Rational Expections and the New Macroeconomics, 1983, Ch.7, pp. 118-43.
50. Modigliani Franco and Shiller Robert J. "Inflation, Rational Expectations, and the term structure of interest Rates, " Economica 1973 Feb. Vol. 40, pp. 12-43.
51. Mossin, J. "Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market," Econometrica, 1966, 34, pp. 768-83
52. Nelson, C.R. and G.H. Schwert, "On Testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant," AER 1977, 67, pp.478-86
53. Oakeshort, Michael, Rationalism in Politics, 1962 New York
54. Pearce, D.K. "Comparing survey and rational measures of expected inflation," JMCB , 1979, Vol. 11, pp. 447-56
55. Pesando, James E. "On the Random Walk Characteristics of Short-and Long-term Interest rates In an Efficient Market" JMCB , 1979 Vol. 11, pp .457-66
56._______________ "On Forecasting Interest Rates : An Efficient Markets perspective , " JME , 1981 , 8, pp. 305-18
57. Phillips Liad and John Pippenger, "Preferred Habitat vs. Efficient Market : A Test of Alternative Hypothesis," Federal Reserve Bank of St . Louis, 1976, May, Review Vol. 58, pp. 11-19.
58. Poole william, "Rational expectations in the Macro Model," BPEA 1976, 2, pp. 463-505.
59. Prell Michael J. "How well Do the Experts Forecast interest rates?,`` Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Monthly Review 1973, pp.3-13.
60. Roll, E. "Interest rates on monetary assets and commodity price index changes,", JP 1972, Vol.27, pp.251-77
61. Roll, Richard, "A critique of the asset pricing theory`s test－part 1: on past and potential testability of the theory," JFE 1977, 4, pp. l29-76.
62. Samuelson, P.A. "Proof that Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly," Industrial Management Rev., 6, 1965 Spring, pp.41-9.
63. Sharpe William F. "Capital Asset Prices : A theory of Market Equilibrium under conditions of Risk," JF 1964 Sep. 19, pp.425-42
64. Sheffrin S.M. Rational Expectations 1983, Ch.4, pp. 112-150
65. Shiller, Robert J. "Rational Expectations and the Structure of Interest Rates," 1972, M.I.T. Ph. D. dissertation
66._______________ "Do stock prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent changes in Dividends?," 1981a, AER 71, pp.421-36
67._______________ "The use of volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," JF 198lb 36: pp. 291-304
68._______________ "Stock prices and Social Dynanimcs," BPEA , 1984, 2, pp.457-98
69._______________ and Campbell John Y., and Schaen-holtz Kermit L., "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the term structure of Interst Rates," BPEA 1983, 1, pp. l73-217
70. Summers, L.H. "The non-adjustment of nominal interest rates: A study of the Fisher effect, "1983, in J. Tobin (ed.) Macroeconomics, Prices and Quantities, Basil Blackwell, Oxford
71. Theil Henri, Principles of Econometrics, 1971, John Wiley & Sons, Inc
72. Watts, Ross L. "Systemic `Abnormal` Returns After Quarterly Earnings Announcement, " JFE, 1978, 6, pp. 127-50
73. Working, H. "Note on the correlation of First Differences of Average in a Random Chain," 1960, Econometrica 28, pp.916-18

AER : American Economic Review
BPEA : Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
JF : Journal of Finance
JFE : Journal of Financial Economics
JMCB : Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
JME : Journal of Monetary Economics
JPE : Journal of Political Economy
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002006785
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 高明瑞zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林文晃zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 林文晃zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 1986en_US
dc.date.accessioned 5-May-2016 16:32:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 5-May-2016 16:32:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-May-2016 16:32:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002006785en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/91857-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 目錄
第壹章 緒論………1
第一節 研究動機及目的………1
第二節 本文架構………2
第貳章 效率市場理論之基本概念及個體基礎………3
第一節 效率市場理論之基本概念………3
第二節 效率市場理論與理性預期的關係………7
第?章 效率市場理論之文獻回顧………21
第一節 效率市場假設實證之一般概念………21
第二節 早期效率市場假設之實證研究的回顧………23
第三節 對效率市場假設之爭議………34
第肆章 效率市場假設之應用………50
第一節 在利率期限結構理論之應用………50
第二節 在Fisher方程式之應用………58
第三節 貨幣政策與利率之間關係之應用………63
第四節 計量模型預測之應用………68
參考文獻………78		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002006785en_US
dc.title (題名) 效率市場假設在利率理論之應用zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考文獻
一、中文部份
1.高明瑞:「貨幣理論與政策」課堂筆記，民國七十二年。
2.葉志鴻:「證券市場的效率:台灣股票交易的實證研究」政大經研所碩士論文，民國六十五年。
3.張清福:「台灣股票市場情報效率性的再探討──春節前後資料之運用」，淡江管研所碩士論文，民國七十三年。
4.李榮瑞:「實質利率與預期物價膨脹」，台大經研所碩士論文，民國七十二年。
5.簡仁德:「臺灣證券市場價格變動習性為隨機漫步假定之實證分析」，淡江管研所博士論文，民國七十年。
6.林煜宗:「效率市場假設」，貨幣市場簡訊，20，國際票券金融股份有限公司，民國七十二年三月十五日。

二、英文部份
1. Alexander, Sidney S. "Price movements in Speculative Markets: Trends or Random Walks", in The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, 1964 edited by Paul Cootner, Cambridge, Mass: M.I.T. Press.
2. Arrow Kenneth J. and Intriligator Michael D. ed. Handbook of Mathematical Economics Volume 1. 1981, North-Holland.
3. Bachelier, L. Theorie de la Speculation, Paris : Gauthier -Villars , 1900 Reprinted in English in(Cootner , 1967 ) , pp.l7-78 .
4 . Ball, Ray "Anomalies in Relationships Between Securities` yields and Yield-surrogates", 1978, JFE 6: pp. 103-26
5. Begg. D.K.H. The Rational Expectations Revolution in Macroeconomics Theory & Evidence, 1982, Ch.8, pp. 205-52.
6. Benninga Simon, and protopapadakis Aris, "Real and Nominalinterest rates under uncertainty : The Fisher theorem and the term structure," JPE 1983 , Vol.91, pp.856-67
7. Black, F. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restrieted Borrowing", Journal of Business, 1972 July: pp.44-55 .
8. Black, F., M.C. Jensen, and M. Scholes, "The Capital As set Pricing Model : Some Empirical Tests", In Studies in the Theory of Capital Markets, 1972, edited by M.C . Jens en , New York Praeger.
9. Bray Margaret, "Rational Expectations, Information and Asset Markets: An Introduction," Oxford Economic Papers, 1985, 37, pp.l61-95.
10. Carlson, J .A. "Short-term interest rates as predictors of inflation: comment ," AER 1977, Vol.67, pp. 469-75.
11. Cootner, Paul(ed), The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, 1967, Cambridge, Mass .: M.I.T. Press.
12. Fama, E.F. "Efficient Capital Markets: A review of theory and Empirical work," JF , 1970, 25:pp.383-423.
13._________ , "Short-Term interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation, " AER 1975 , 65 : pp.269-82 .
14._________ , Foundations of Finance: Portfolio Decision and Securities Prices, 1976 , New York.
15._________ , "Interest rates and inflation: the message of the entrails , " AER 1977, Vol. 67, pp.487-96.
16.__________, and A.B. Laffer, "Information and Capital Market", Journal of Business 44, 1971, July, pp.289-98.
17.__________ and G. "Pilliam Schwert, "Asset Returns and Inflation," JFE , Vo1.5 , (Nov.l977)pp. 115-46 .
18. Flavin, Marjorie A. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets : A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," JPE 1983, Vol. 91, pp.929-56.
19. Fraser, Donald R., "On the Accuracy and Usefulness of interest Rate Forecasts," Business Economics" 1977, Vol.l2, pp.38-44.
20. Gibbons Michael R. and Ferson Wayne, "Testing Asset pricing Models with changing. Expectations and an unobservable Market Portfolio," JFE 1985, pp.217-36.
21. Gibson, W. E. "Interest rates and Inflationary expectation: new evidence," AER 1972, Vol.62, pp.854-65.
22. Grossman, Sanford, "On the efficiency of competitive Stock Markets Where Traders have Diverse Information," JF 1976 31, pp.537-85.
23.________________, "Further results on the informational Efficiency of competitive Stock Markets," Journal of Economic Theory" 1978, 18 , pp.81-101.
24.________________ and Stiglitz Joseph E. "Information and Competitive price Systems," AER, 1976 May Vol-66 pp. 246-53.
25.__________________________________,, "The Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," AER, 1980, 70:PP-393-408
26. Harris Laurence, Monetary Theory, 1981 McGraw-Hill, Inc. Ch.l7, pp.322-341
27. Hayek, F.A. "The use of knowledge in Society," AER 1945, pp.519-30
28. Hess, P.J. and J.L. Bicksler, "Capital asset prices verses time Series models and Predictors of inflation: the expected real rate of interest and market efficiency," JFE , 1975, Vol.2, pp. 341-60
29. ____________ and Reinganum Hare R. "Efficient Capital Markets," ed. by James L. Bicksler Handbook of Financial Economics 1979, North-Holland
30. Hellwig, M.F. "Rational expectations eouilibrium with conditioning on past prices, A mean variance example," Journal of Economic Theory 1982, 26, pp. 279-312.
31. Hicks, J.R. Value and Capital, 1939, clarendon press, Oxford
32. Holden, K., D. A. Peel and J. L. Thompson , Expectations : Theory and Evidence, 1985 , St. Martin`s Press, Ch.4
33. Jensen, Michael, "Tests of Capital Market Theory and Implications of the Evidence," in Handbook of Financial Economics, North-Holland, 1979
34. Jones, David S. and Roley V. Vance, "Rational Expectations and the Expectations Model of the term Structure: A Test Using Weekly Data," JME 1983, pp.453-65.
35. Joines, D. "Short-term interest rates as predictors of inflation: Comment," AER , 1977, Vol.67, pp.476-77
36. Kendall, Maurice G. "The Analysis of Economic Time-Series, Part I Prices," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1953, 96, pp. 11-25.
37. LeRoy, Stephen F. and Richard D. Porter, "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds,`` Econometrica, 1981, 49: pp. 555-74
38. Lintner John, "Security Prices, Risk, and Maximal gains from Diversification," JF , 1965a Dec. pp. 587-615
39._______, "The Valuation of Risk Assets and the selection of Risky Investments in Stock portfolios and Capita l Budgets, " Review of Economics and Statistics, 1965b Feb. 47 , pp. l3-37.
40. Lucas Robert Z., Jr. "Econometric policy Evaluation : A Critique," in Karl Brunner and Allan H. Meltzer, eds, The Phillip scurve and Labor Market, 1976, Amsterdam and New York, North-Holland
41. Mandelbrot, B. "Forecasts of Future Prices, unbiased Markets, and Martingale Models," Journal of Business 39, 1966 Jan., pp.242-55
42. Mankiw N. Gregory, and Summers Lawrence H., "Do Long-term Interest Rates overreact to short-term Interest Rates?" BPEA 1984 , 1, pp.223- 42
43. Mayshar, Joram, "On Divergence of opinion and Imperfections in Capital Markets , " AER , 1983 March, Vol.73, pp. 114-28
44. Mishkin, Frederic S, "Efficient-Markets Theory: Implication for Monetary Policy ," BPEA 1978, Vol.3, pp.707-68
45._________________ , "Are Market forecasts Rational? , 198la AER71, pp. 293-306
46._________________, "Monetary policy and Long-term interest rates: An efficient Markets Approach," JME 1981b, 7, pp.29-55
47._________________ , "Monetary policy and Short-term interest rates : An efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," JF 1982, pp.63-72.
48.__________________, A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics, Chicago Press, 1983
49. Minford P. and D. Peel, Rational Expections and the New Macroeconomics, 1983, Ch.7, pp. 118-43.
50. Modigliani Franco and Shiller Robert J. "Inflation, Rational Expectations, and the term structure of interest Rates, " Economica 1973 Feb. Vol. 40, pp. 12-43.
51. Mossin, J. "Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market," Econometrica, 1966, 34, pp. 768-83
52. Nelson, C.R. and G.H. Schwert, "On Testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant," AER 1977, 67, pp.478-86
53. Oakeshort, Michael, Rationalism in Politics, 1962 New York
54. Pearce, D.K. "Comparing survey and rational measures of expected inflation," JMCB , 1979, Vol. 11, pp. 447-56
55. Pesando, James E. "On the Random Walk Characteristics of Short-and Long-term Interest rates In an Efficient Market" JMCB , 1979 Vol. 11, pp .457-66
56._______________ "On Forecasting Interest Rates : An Efficient Markets perspective , " JME , 1981 , 8, pp. 305-18
57. Phillips Liad and John Pippenger, "Preferred Habitat vs. Efficient Market : A Test of Alternative Hypothesis," Federal Reserve Bank of St . Louis, 1976, May, Review Vol. 58, pp. 11-19.
58. Poole william, "Rational expectations in the Macro Model," BPEA 1976, 2, pp. 463-505.
59. Prell Michael J. "How well Do the Experts Forecast interest rates?,`` Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Monthly Review 1973, pp.3-13.
60. Roll, E. "Interest rates on monetary assets and commodity price index changes,", JP 1972, Vol.27, pp.251-77
61. Roll, Richard, "A critique of the asset pricing theory`s test－part 1: on past and potential testability of the theory," JFE 1977, 4, pp. l29-76.
62. Samuelson, P.A. "Proof that Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly," Industrial Management Rev., 6, 1965 Spring, pp.41-9.
63. Sharpe William F. "Capital Asset Prices : A theory of Market Equilibrium under conditions of Risk," JF 1964 Sep. 19, pp.425-42
64. Sheffrin S.M. Rational Expectations 1983, Ch.4, pp. 112-150
65. Shiller, Robert J. "Rational Expectations and the Structure of Interest Rates," 1972, M.I.T. Ph. D. dissertation
66._______________ "Do stock prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent changes in Dividends?," 1981a, AER 71, pp.421-36
67._______________ "The use of volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," JF 198lb 36: pp. 291-304
68._______________ "Stock prices and Social Dynanimcs," BPEA , 1984, 2, pp.457-98
69._______________ and Campbell John Y., and Schaen-holtz Kermit L., "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the term structure of Interst Rates," BPEA 1983, 1, pp. l73-217
70. Summers, L.H. "The non-adjustment of nominal interest rates: A study of the Fisher effect, "1983, in J. Tobin (ed.) Macroeconomics, Prices and Quantities, Basil Blackwell, Oxford
71. Theil Henri, Principles of Econometrics, 1971, John Wiley & Sons, Inc
72. Watts, Ross L. "Systemic `Abnormal` Returns After Quarterly Earnings Announcement, " JFE, 1978, 6, pp. 127-50
73. Working, H. "Note on the correlation of First Differences of Average in a Random Chain," 1960, Econometrica 28, pp.916-18

AER : American Economic Review
BPEA : Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
JF : Journal of Finance
JFE : Journal of Financial Economics
JMCB : Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
JME : Journal of Monetary Economics
JPE : Journal of Political Economy		zh_TW