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題名 反射線像在股票市場之研究
Reflexivity of price in the stock market作者 涂鈞凱 貢獻者 謝淑貞
涂鈞凱關鍵詞 反射現象
心理學
Reflexivity
Psychology日期 2009 上傳時間 9-May-2016 11:26:43 (UTC+8) 摘要 通常對於股票市場之評價,我們採取單一方向,但是實際上股票市場會以某種狀態回饋給投資人使得我們對於股價以及認知產生偏頗,而這些認知上的偏頗則產生了股票市場繁榮以及崩解的型態
I used to be a securities specialist, serving in Taishin Holdings during January 2007-October 2008. As a securities specialist, I found financial markets so fascinating. Among all the financial markets, stock market seems to be the most eye-catching spot, because of its low transaction costs, a large number of participants, instant communication. If there is any place where the theory of perfect competition ought to be translated into practice, it is the stock market. When it comes to real word, traditional pricing model seems to be irrelevant. What is the real driving force behind stock market? Is it only simply the discount of dividends regardless of acquisition, future prospect or the credit of leading staff? I would like to discuss the issue under the foundations of behavioral finance which is different from those of tradition market theory. In this article, I shall start with briefly introducing Behavioral Finance and its psychological foundations in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, a review to Gordon Model. In chapter 4, I will start with confirmation bias as the entry point creating a new boom/bust model with Reflexivity. In chapter 5, I shall illustrate a case and discuss the advantage and also the flaw of the model.參考文獻 1.George Stigler, Theory of Price (New York: Maclmillan, 1966) 2.Lionel C. Robbins, An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science, 3d. ed. (New York: New York University Press, 1984). 3.Karl R Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery (New York: Basic Books, 1959), and Conjectures and Refutations (London Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1963) 4.Karl R Popper, The Poverty of Historicism (London Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1957), p.130 5.Arkes, Hal R. and Catherine Blumer (1985). “The psychology of sunk cost,” Organizational Behavioral and Human Decision Process 35, 124-140. 6.Barberis, Nicholas, Ming Huang and Tano Santos. (2001).“Prospect theory and asset prices,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 116,1-53. 7.Bem, Dryl J. (1965). “An experimental analysis of self-persuasion, ”Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 1, 199-218. 8. Camerer, C. (1995).“Individual decision making,” Handbook of Experimental Economics. J. Kagel and A. E. Roth, Princeton University Press: 587-703. 9. Cutler, D., J. Porterba and L Summers (1989).“What moves stock price? ” Journal of Portfolio Management 15, 4-12. 10.Daniel, Kent, D. Hirshleifer and A. Subrahmanyam (1998).“Investor psychology and security market under-and overreactions,” Journal of Finance 53, 1839-1886. 11.De Bondt, W. F. M. and R. H. Thaler (1987).“Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality, ” Journal of Finance 42, 557-581. 12. De Bondt, W. F. M. and R. H. Thaler. (1995). “Financial decision-making in marketsand firms: A behavioral perspective.” Robert A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, and W. Z.Ziemba, ed.: Finance, Handbooks in Operations Research and ManagementScience 9, 385-410 (Amsterdam: North Holland). 13.Edwards, Kimberley D. (1995). “Prospect theory: A literature review,” International Review of Financial Analysis 5, 19-38. 14.Fama, E. F. (1998).“Market efficiency, long-term returns and behavioral finance, ”Journal of Financial Economics 49, 283-306. 15. Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky (1973).“On the psychology of prediction, ” Psychological Review 80, 237-251. 16. Kahneman ,Daniel ,and Mark W. Riepe (1998).“Aspects of investor psychology, ” Journal of Portfolio Management, 52-65. 17. “On self deception and on the voter’s illusion,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 46, 237-248. 18. Rabin, Matthew. (1998).“Psychology and economics, ” Journal of Economic Literature 36, 11-46. 19. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman (1971).“Belief in the law of small numbers, ” Psychological Bulletin 76, 105-110. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
94351036資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0943510361 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 謝淑貞 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 涂鈞凱 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 涂鈞凱 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2009 en_US dc.date.accessioned 9-May-2016 11:26:43 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 9-May-2016 11:26:43 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-May-2016 11:26:43 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0943510361 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/94669 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 94351036 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 通常對於股票市場之評價,我們採取單一方向,但是實際上股票市場會以某種狀態回饋給投資人使得我們對於股價以及認知產生偏頗,而這些認知上的偏頗則產生了股票市場繁榮以及崩解的型態 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) I used to be a securities specialist, serving in Taishin Holdings during January 2007-October 2008. As a securities specialist, I found financial markets so fascinating. Among all the financial markets, stock market seems to be the most eye-catching spot, because of its low transaction costs, a large number of participants, instant communication. If there is any place where the theory of perfect competition ought to be translated into practice, it is the stock market. When it comes to real word, traditional pricing model seems to be irrelevant. What is the real driving force behind stock market? Is it only simply the discount of dividends regardless of acquisition, future prospect or the credit of leading staff? I would like to discuss the issue under the foundations of behavioral finance which is different from those of tradition market theory. In this article, I shall start with briefly introducing Behavioral Finance and its psychological foundations in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, a review to Gordon Model. In chapter 4, I will start with confirmation bias as the entry point creating a new boom/bust model with Reflexivity. In chapter 5, I shall illustrate a case and discuss the advantage and also the flaw of the model. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1 Reflexivity 2 1.1 Introduction to Behavioral economics 2 1.2 Psychological Foundations 3 1.3 Disequilibrium 4 1.4 The Participants’ Bias 6 1.5 Concept of Reflexivity 8 Chapter 2 Review to Gordon Model 10 2.1 Gordon growth model 10 2.2 Problems with this model 12 Chapter 3 Reflexivity of price in the stock market 14 3.1 Reflexivity in the stock market 14 3.2 The model 19 3.3 Descriptions of new model 26 3.4 The example of FIRICH ENTERPRISE CO.LTD 31 Chapter 4 Conclusions and Discussions 36 4.1 Discussions of the model 36 4.2 Conclusions 38 Figure 1 Theoretical Approach 26 Figure 2 Reflexivity model 30 Figure 3 FEC(8076) Stock Prices 34 Figure 4 Comparison of Price and Quarterly EPS 35 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0943510361 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 反射現象 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 心理學 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Reflexivity en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Psychology en_US dc.title (題名) 反射線像在股票市場之研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Reflexivity of price in the stock market en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1.George Stigler, Theory of Price (New York: Maclmillan, 1966) 2.Lionel C. Robbins, An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science, 3d. ed. (New York: New York University Press, 1984). 3.Karl R Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery (New York: Basic Books, 1959), and Conjectures and Refutations (London Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1963) 4.Karl R Popper, The Poverty of Historicism (London Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1957), p.130 5.Arkes, Hal R. and Catherine Blumer (1985). “The psychology of sunk cost,” Organizational Behavioral and Human Decision Process 35, 124-140. 6.Barberis, Nicholas, Ming Huang and Tano Santos. (2001).“Prospect theory and asset prices,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 116,1-53. 7.Bem, Dryl J. (1965). “An experimental analysis of self-persuasion, ”Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 1, 199-218. 8. Camerer, C. (1995).“Individual decision making,” Handbook of Experimental Economics. J. Kagel and A. E. Roth, Princeton University Press: 587-703. 9. Cutler, D., J. Porterba and L Summers (1989).“What moves stock price? ” Journal of Portfolio Management 15, 4-12. 10.Daniel, Kent, D. Hirshleifer and A. Subrahmanyam (1998).“Investor psychology and security market under-and overreactions,” Journal of Finance 53, 1839-1886. 11.De Bondt, W. F. M. and R. H. Thaler (1987).“Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality, ” Journal of Finance 42, 557-581. 12. De Bondt, W. F. M. and R. H. Thaler. (1995). “Financial decision-making in marketsand firms: A behavioral perspective.” Robert A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, and W. Z.Ziemba, ed.: Finance, Handbooks in Operations Research and ManagementScience 9, 385-410 (Amsterdam: North Holland). 13.Edwards, Kimberley D. (1995). “Prospect theory: A literature review,” International Review of Financial Analysis 5, 19-38. 14.Fama, E. F. (1998).“Market efficiency, long-term returns and behavioral finance, ”Journal of Financial Economics 49, 283-306. 15. Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky (1973).“On the psychology of prediction, ” Psychological Review 80, 237-251. 16. Kahneman ,Daniel ,and Mark W. Riepe (1998).“Aspects of investor psychology, ” Journal of Portfolio Management, 52-65. 17. “On self deception and on the voter’s illusion,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 46, 237-248. 18. Rabin, Matthew. (1998).“Psychology and economics, ” Journal of Economic Literature 36, 11-46. 19. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman (1971).“Belief in the law of small numbers, ” Psychological Bulletin 76, 105-110. zh_TW
