| dc.contributor.advisor | 張清福 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 林佳慧 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 林佳慧 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2008 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 9-May-2016 11:28:56 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 9-May-2016 11:28:56 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 9-May-2016 11:28:56 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0095353034 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/94691 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 會計學系 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 95353034 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 本研究以I/B/E/S中2004至2005年所有美國公司為樣本，依財務分析師盈餘預測值與所有財務分析師盈餘預測平均值之差異程度，將財務分析師分類為大膽或膽怯的財務分析師，並依財務分析師盈餘預測發布之時點將財務分析師分類為領導型或從眾型財務分析師。針對財務分析師盈餘預測行為大膽及領導特性，探討時效性領導型財務分析師之盈餘預測是否會較大膽，並進一步研究大膽的財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度是否較高，以及時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度是否較高。研究結果發現時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測行為會較大膽，但大膽的財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度較低，且時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度並未出現較高的現象。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Security analysts can be characterized as bold or herding based on the absolute distance between their earnings forecasts and the consensus forecast. Security analysts can also be classified as lead or following based on the timeliness of their earnings forecasts. Based on I/B/E/S annual earnings forecasts of all American companies during the period of 2004-2005, this study addresses the association between bold and lead and the relation between bold forecast and forecast accuracy. In addition, the relation between lead forecast and forecast accuracy is investigated as well. It is shown that lead analysts are bolder than following analysts and boldness likelihood increases with the frequency of analysts’ forecast and declines with the analysts’ prior accuracy. Further, bold analysts’ earnings forecasts are less accurate than herding analysts’ and lead analysts’ earnings forecasts are less accurate than following analysts. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 謝 辭 i摘 要 iiABSTRACT iii表目錄 v圖目錄 vi第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機 1第二節 研究目的與問題 4第三節 研究流程 6第四節 研究架構 7第二章 文獻探討 8第一節 財務分析師預測之特性 8第二節 財務分析師盈餘預測準確性 16第三章 研究方法 23第一節 研究假說 23第二節 樣本選取 27第三節 研究分析方法 27第四節 變數之定義與衡量 30第五節 預期結果 35第四章 實證結果 37第一節 敘述性統計 37第二節 迴歸結果分析 40第五章 結論與建議 58第一節 結論 58第二節 研究限制 61第三節 研究建議 63參考文獻 64表目錄表2-1 財務分析師預測行為之特性-大膽-之研究 12表2-2 分析師盈餘預測準確性之研究 20表3-1 迴歸式中之各變數之預期結果 36表4-1 全部樣本之敘述性統計 39表4-2 Pearson相關係數 41表4-3 修正後之Pearson相關係數 42表4-4 迴歸模型1.1 46表4-5 迴歸模型1.2 47表4-6 迴歸模型2.1 53表4-7 迴歸模型2.2 54表4-8 迴歸模型3.1 55表4-9 迴歸模型3.2 56表4-10 修正前後迴歸模型之VIF值 57圖目錄圖1-1 研究流程之說明 6圖3-1 YTD_Distijt之衡量方法 30圖3- 2 時效性之領導型財務分析師 31圖3- 3 時效性之落後型財務分析師 31 | zh_TW |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095353034 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 大膽 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 領導 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 分析師 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 盈餘預測準確度 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | bold | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | leader | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | analyst | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | earning forecast accuracy | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 財務分析師大膽及領導特性與盈餘預測準確度之探討 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en_US |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 一、中文部分巫姿穎，2005，承銷關係、聲譽、與分析師預測:以美國IPOs為例，東海大學會計學系碩士論文。汪健全，1993，台灣地區影響財務分析盈餘預估準確度因素之實證研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文。林宜勉，1994，財務分析師預測之探討，商業職業教育，第58卷：39-45。高維宏，2003，領導型、從眾型分析師與企業生命週期關係之研究，國立中正大學會計研究所碩士論文。許秀賓，1991，財務分析師餘盈預測相對準確性決定因素之實證研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。許秀賓，1993，財務分析師盈餘預測優越性決定因素－實證研究，會計評論，第27 期：137-158。葉美玲，1997，影響管理當局與分析師盈餘預測相對準確性之因素，國立中正大學會計學研究所碩士論文。二、英文部分Ackert, L.F., and G. Athanassakos. 2003. A simultaneous equations analysis of analysts’ forecast bias, analyst following, and institutional ownership. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 30: 1017-1042.Chopra, V. K. 1998. Why so much error in analysts’ earnings forecast? Financial Analyst Journal 54: 35-42.Clement, M. B. 1999. Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter. Journal of Accounting and Economics 27: 285-303.Clement, M. B., and S. Tse. 2003. Do investors respond to analysts’ forecast revisions as if forecast accuracy is all that matters. Accounting Review 78: 227-249.Clement, M. B., and S. Tse. 2005. Financial analyst characteristics and herding behavior in forecasting. Journal of Finance 60: 307-341.Cooper, R. A., T. E. Day, and C. M. Lewis. 2001. Following the leader: A study of individual analysts’ earnings forecasts. Journal of Finance Economics 61: 383-416.Gleason, C. A., and C. M. C. Lee. 2003. Analyst forecast revisions and market price discovery. Accounting Review 78: 193-225.Graham, J. R. 1999. Herding among investment newsletters: Theory and evidence. Journal of Finance 54: 237-268.Hong, H., J. D. Kubik, and A. Solomon. 2000. Security analysts’ career concerns and herding of earnings forecasts. RADN Journal of Economics 31: 121-144.Jacob, J., T. Z. Lys, and M. A. Neale. 1999. Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts. Journal of Accounting and Economics 28: 27-50.Krishnan, M., S. C. Lim., and P. Zhou. 2006. Analysts` herding propensity: Theory and evidence from earnings forecasts. (working paper)Stickel, S. E. 1992. Reputation and performance among security analysts. Journal of Finance 47: 1811-1836.Trueman, B. 1994. Analyst forecasts and herding behavior. Review of Financial Studies 7: 97-124. | zh_TW |
