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題名 情報決策象限理論之建構與個案分析-孫子兵法情報概念的反思
The Construction and Case Study of the Quadrangular Theory for Intelligence-Decision:Reflection on the Intelligence Thought of Sun Tzu.
作者 紀光陽
Chi, Kuang Yang
貢獻者 李英明<br>宋筱元
Lee,Ying Ming<br>Song,Sheau Yuan
紀光陽
Chi,Kuang Yang
關鍵詞 孫子兵法
情報
信息
認知
決策
象限理論
決策方程式
美伊戰爭
The Art of War by Sun-tzu
intelligence
information
cognition
decision-making
Quadrant theory
Equation of decision
Second Gulf War
日期 2009
上傳時間 9-May-2016 12:35:34 (UTC+8)
摘要 「情報」與「決策」存在著高度的密切關係,「情報」正確而及時則相對提高「決策」的正確性;反之,則降低「決策」的正確性。但同一個「情報」對不同的個人而言,會產出不同的「決策」結果,此即是「決策」不僅與「情報」有關,亦與個人的「認知」條件有著密切的關係。
       因此,本文透過孫子兵法「情報」與「決策」的關係,架構出孫子的決策邏輯與位階性,再以此建構出情報決策「象限理論」,企圖系統性地解釋「情報」條件與決策者「認知」條件的複雜關係,並藉由第二次美伊戰爭的決策過程作為例證,說明導致決策錯誤的重要因素。並由「象限理論」中第一象限區域,及美伊戰爭決策缺失中,檢討並演繹出「國家安全決策新思維」,文中指出一個專業且中立的情報機關,除了要提升情報信息的客觀性外,更要避免、改變決策者先入為主的錯誤認知。經由本文所提出的「象限理論」、「決策方程式」、「個案分析」、「國家安全決策新思維」,將有助於瞭解並加速決策產出的質量與效能,進而有利於優質決策的產出。
There is highly relationship between intelligence and decision-making. The correct and on time intelligence will make a good policy; but the wrong or slow intelligence will make a bad policy, on the contrary. The same intelligence for different individuals will result in different decision-making, which means decision-making has high relationship with intelligence and personal cognition.
     For this reason, this article constructs The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making based on The Art of Sun-tzu theory, to explain the complicated relation between intelligence and personal cognition, as well as to state the important factor which leads to the wrong decision-making in the Second Gulf War.
     This article also point out an important concept: the professional and intelligence agencies will not only improve the objectively intelligence, but also will avoid policymaker`s prejudiced cognition. The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making will help to understand the whole situation and accelerate the high quality and high efficiency decision-making process.
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描述 博士
國立政治大學
國家發展研究所
91261502
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0912615021
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 李英明<br>宋筱元zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lee,Ying Ming<br>Song,Sheau Yuanen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 紀光陽zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chi,Kuang Yangen_US
dc.creator (作者) 紀光陽zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chi, Kuang Yangen_US
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-May-2016 12:35:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-May-2016 12:35:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-May-2016 12:35:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0912615021en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/94879-
dc.description (描述) 博士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國家發展研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91261502zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 「情報」與「決策」存在著高度的密切關係,「情報」正確而及時則相對提高「決策」的正確性;反之,則降低「決策」的正確性。但同一個「情報」對不同的個人而言,會產出不同的「決策」結果,此即是「決策」不僅與「情報」有關,亦與個人的「認知」條件有著密切的關係。
       因此,本文透過孫子兵法「情報」與「決策」的關係,架構出孫子的決策邏輯與位階性,再以此建構出情報決策「象限理論」,企圖系統性地解釋「情報」條件與決策者「認知」條件的複雜關係,並藉由第二次美伊戰爭的決策過程作為例證,說明導致決策錯誤的重要因素。並由「象限理論」中第一象限區域,及美伊戰爭決策缺失中,檢討並演繹出「國家安全決策新思維」,文中指出一個專業且中立的情報機關,除了要提升情報信息的客觀性外,更要避免、改變決策者先入為主的錯誤認知。經由本文所提出的「象限理論」、「決策方程式」、「個案分析」、「國家安全決策新思維」,將有助於瞭解並加速決策產出的質量與效能,進而有利於優質決策的產出。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) There is highly relationship between intelligence and decision-making. The correct and on time intelligence will make a good policy; but the wrong or slow intelligence will make a bad policy, on the contrary. The same intelligence for different individuals will result in different decision-making, which means decision-making has high relationship with intelligence and personal cognition.
     For this reason, this article constructs The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making based on The Art of Sun-tzu theory, to explain the complicated relation between intelligence and personal cognition, as well as to state the important factor which leads to the wrong decision-making in the Second Gulf War.
     This article also point out an important concept: the professional and intelligence agencies will not only improve the objectively intelligence, but also will avoid policymaker`s prejudiced cognition. The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making will help to understand the whole situation and accelerate the high quality and high efficiency decision-making process.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論……………………………………………………1
      第一節 研究背景…………………………………………1
      第二節 研究目的…………………………………………3
      第三節 文獻回顧 …………………………………………5
       第四節 研究設計…………………………………………13
     第二章 情報研究典範的回顧與前瞻…………………………21
       第一節 傳統安全觀念下的情報工作……………………21
       第二節 非傳統安全時代的情報課題……………………25
       第三節 現階段情報研究的主要概念……………………29
       第四節 情報學未來的發展趨勢…………………………37
     第三章 決策中的情報意涵與運用……………………………49
       第一節 情報的分類………………………………………49
       第二節 情報處理的程序…………………………………56
       第三節 情報與決策關係…………………………………61
       第四節 決策中情報的應用………………………………69
     第四章 孫子決策中的情報概念分析…………………………79
       第一節 兵法決策邏輯的歸納與建構……………………79
       第二節 全勝的情報哲學…………………………………85
       第三節 情報科學的蒐集與分析…………………………87
      第四節 情報中的兵學應用與執行 ……………………99
     第五章 情報決策象限理論與模型建構………………………111
        第一節 決策中變項因素探討……………………………112
        第二節 情報決策象限理論建構…………………………120
      第三節 象限理論中情報條件分析………………………133
      第四節 象限理論中決策者認知條件分析 ……………141
     第六章 第二次美伊戰爭個案分析……………………………151
      第一節 第二次美伊戰爭過程說明………………………151
        第二節 第二次美伊戰爭中情報條件分析………………156
        第三節 第二次美伊戰爭中決策者認知條件分析………170
      第四節 美伊戰爭中情報決策象限分析…………………182
     第七章 國家安全與情報決策新思維…………………………189
        第一節 博奕中的國家安全探討…………………………189
        第二節 新思維下的情報決策機制運作流程分析………192
      第三節 情報工作人員決策思維檢討……………………201
      第四節 本章小節…………………………………………206
     第八章 結論……………………………………………………209
        第一節 研究發現與貢獻…………………………………210
        第二節 研究建議……………………………………………216
     
     中文參考文獻………………………………………………………219
     
     西文參考文獻………………………………………………………225
     
     附錄
     孫子兵法十三篇內容釋義…………………………………………251
zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0912615021en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 孫子兵法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 情報zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 信息zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 認知zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 決策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 象限理論zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 決策方程式zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美伊戰爭zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) The Art of War by Sun-tzuen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) intelligenceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) informationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) cognitionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) decision-makingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Quadrant theoryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Equation of decisionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Second Gulf Waren_US
dc.title (題名) 情報決策象限理論之建構與個案分析-孫子兵法情報概念的反思zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Construction and Case Study of the Quadrangular Theory for Intelligence-Decision:Reflection on the Intelligence Thought of Sun Tzu.en_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文參考文獻
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     專書篇章
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     翻譯書籍
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      臺北:天下文化出版社。
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      北:韋伯出版社。
     Robbinns, Stephen P.著,林思伶、李炳林譯(2005),《決策DNA》,
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     Schramm, Wilbur L.著,余也魯譯(1990),《傳學概論:傳媒‧信息與
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     K. B. 塔拉卡諾夫著,何士彬譯(1993),《情報學》,北京:書目文獻出
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     期刊及學術會議文章
     老 參(1975),〈泛論軍事情報-情報是現代國防的第一線〉,《三軍聯合
      月刊》,第13卷3期,頁95-106。
     李英明、賴皆興(2005),〈從理性博奕向結構博奕轉移:兼論兩岸結構博
      奕〉,《遠景基金會季刊》,第6卷4期,頁1-29。
     汪毓瑋(2002),〈資訊時代之情報在危機決策中之作用與面臨之問題〉,
      《中華戰略學刊》,秋季刊,頁127-166。
     宋筱元(1998),〈從臺商間諜案論獨裁政權之情報機構〉,《理論與政
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     宋筱元(1998),〈情報研究-一門新興的學科〉,《警政學報》,第33
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     宋筱元、紀光陽(2007),〈論孫子兵法中的情報決策觀〉,《中央警察大學
      警學叢刊》,第37卷第4期,頁43-68。
     林吉郎(2002),〈我國國家安全與危機管理:整合性緊急管理政策與機
      制〉,《國防雜誌》,第17卷9期,頁87-105。
     紀光陽(2007),〈論孫子兵法的决策思維-情報觀點的反思〉,《北臺灣科
      技學院通識學報》,第3期,頁245-263。
     孫伯先(1971),〈論戰爭原則-安全與情報〉,《情報學術研究》,第7
      期,頁24-39。
     馬費成(2002),〈論情報學的基本原理〉,《資訊傳播與圖書館學》,第8
      卷3期,頁35-44。
     高希均(2003),〈領導智慧與執行能力〉,《遠見雜誌》,第204期,頁
      30-31。
     許志強(2002),〈情報學多元進化理論研究〉,《資訊傳播與圖書館學》,
      第8卷4期,頁55-66。
     章一平(1997),〈冷戰後世界的新安全觀〉,《現代國際關係》,第2期,
      頁38-41。
     鈕先鍾(1973),〈國家安全政策,一個隱晦的領域〉,《軍事譯粹》,第
      22卷7期,頁3-21。
     黃秋龍(2004),〈非傳統安全的理論與實踐〉,《展望與探索》,第2卷4
      期,頁11-22。
     劉慶元(2002),〈國家安全戰略理論探析〉,《中華戰略學刊》,冬季刊,
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     瑩 蒼(1969),〈研讀總統政治作戰情報戰訓示之心得〉,《情報學術研
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     蔡政修(2004),〈911事件後的美國國家安全戰略:以波灣戰爭與北韓核子
      危機為例〉,《問題與研究》,第43卷6期,頁129-165。
     繆 園(2002),〈20世紀90年代以來日本情報科學與圖書館情報學的發
      展〉,《資訊傳播與圖書館學,第8卷3期,頁85-92。
     謝志淵(2003),〈從情報學發展趨勢探討國軍戰場情報準備工作之發展〉,
      《陸軍學術月刊》,第39卷458期,頁59-69。
     嚴怡民(1992),〈情報學研究現狀與展望〉,《情報學報》,第13卷1期,
      頁1-12。
     嚴怡民(1996),〈走向21世紀的情報學〉,《圖書情報知識》,第2期,頁
      5-12。
     蘇進強(2003),〈國家安全與危機管理機制〉,《新世紀智庫論壇》,第
      21期,頁4-25。
     沈玄池(2003),〈美伊戰爭與全球外交動向〉,中興大學全球和平戰略研究
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     Newspaper & Magazine
     Albright, Madeleine E. (2002),“Where Iraq Fits in the War
      on Terror,”The New York Times, September 20.
     
     Ali, Ahmed (2007),“IRAQ: Death Threats and Attacks Force
      Familes to Flee,”Global Information Network, November
      6.
     
     Andrew, Buncombe (2003),“Cheney Under Pressure to Quit
      Over False War Evidence,”The INDEPENDENT, July 16.
            article96352.ece>
     Borger, Julian (2003),“Iraq: After the War: France Will
      Pay for Opposition Says Powell: Administration`s Dove
      Suggests Trouble Ahead as new UN Confrontation Looms
      Over Sanctions ,”Guardian Unlimited, April 24.
            oo.html>.
     Bowers, Faye,“Driving Forces in War-Wary Nations: The
      Stances of France, Germany,Russia and China Are Colored
      by Economic and National Interests,”Christian Science
      Monitor, February 25.
      .
     Bumiller, Elisabeth and David E. Sanger (2006),“Traces of
      Terror: The President; Bush, as Terror Inquiry Swirls,
      Seeks Cabinet Post on Security,”The New York Times, June
      7.
     
     Calabresi, Massimo andTimothy J. Burger (2003),“Who Lost
      the WMD,”Time, June 29.
            1101030707-461781,00.html>
     Colachal, Abdul R. (2007),“Dynamism in Russia-China
      Relations: A study,”What Really Happened. Com, October
      14.
     
     Dan, Balz and Abramowitz Michael (2006),“President Tries
      to Win Over a War-Weary Nation,”The Washington Post,
      September 12.
     
     Depalma, Anthony (2003),“Threats and Responses: An
      Overview: March 19-20, 2003; Starting a War, Appealing
      for Surrender and Pulling Out the Networks,”The New
      York Times, March 20.
     
     Diamond, John and Susan Page (2003),“Bush Signals He May
      Skip U. N.; Plan: Issue Iraq an Ultimatum Instead,”USA
      TODAY, Mar 14.
     
     Elliott, Michael (2002),“The Selling of the President`s
      War,”Time, November 11.
            article/0,9565,389085,00.html>
     Ewen, MacAskill and Borge Julian (2006),“Iraq Mayhem
      Triggers Hunt for Exit Strategy in US and UK,”Guardian
      Unlimited, October 21.
            1928039,oo.html>
     FitzGerald, Frances (2002),“Threat of War: How Hawks
      Captured the White House: When the Soviet Threat
      Vanished, the Purpose of American Foreign Policy Seemed
      to Go with It-Until September 11 and Iraq`s Regime,”
      Guardian Unlimited,September 24.
            story/o,,,oo.html>
     Lemann, Nicholas (2002),“The Next World Order: The Bush
      Administration May Have a Brand New Doctrine of
      Power,”The New Yorker, February 1.
     
     Lemann, Nicholas (2003),“After Iraq: The Plan to Remake
      the Middle East,”The New Yorker, February 17.
     
     Ignatieff, Michael (2003),“Mission: Rebuild Iraq, Looking
      for Leader Amid the Ashes,”The New York Times Magazine,
      January 5.
     
     Mark, Mazzetti (2006),“Spy Agencies Say Iraq War Worsens
      Terrorism Threat,”The New York Times, September 24.
     
     Melloan, George (2004),“Why No WMDs? Saddam Was Playing a
      Shell Game,”The Wall Street Journal, February 3.
            SB118289311361649057.html>
     Miller, Greg (2003),“Showdown with Iraq; Democracy Domino
      Theory `Not Credible`; A State Department Report Disputes
      Bush`s Claim that Ousting Hussein Will Spur Reforms in
      The Mideast, Intelligence Officials Say,”Los Angeles
      Times, March 14.
     
     Mulrine, Anna (2006),“`Civil War` or Not?; While U. S.
      Pols and Pundits Debate Labels, Iraqis Fear Their Country
      is Sliding Deeper into The Abyss,”U. S. News & World
      Report, December 11.
            World-Report>
     Neary, Lynn (2003),“Analysis: Intelligence Analysts React
      to Colin Powell`s Speech,”All Things
      Considered ,February 6.
            prgId=2>
     O`brien, Timothy L. (2003),“Threats and Responses:
      Monitoring; U. N. Group Finds No Hussein-Al Qaeda
      link,”The New York Times, June 27.
     
     Page, Susan (2005),“Bush Poll Ratings Slide to New
      Low,”USA Today, November 15.
     
     Pincus, Walter and Dana Priest (2003),“Analysts Cite
      Pressure on Iraq Judgement,”The Washington Post, June 5.
      .
     Ponnuru, Ramesh (2003),“Getting to The Bottom of
      This `Neo` Nonsense: Before you Talk about Conservatives,
      Know What You`re Doing,”National Review, June 16.
            title=National_Review>
     Ponnuru, Ramesh (2003),“Getting to the Bottom of This Neo,
      Nonsense: Before you Talk about Conservatives, Know What
      You`re Doing,”Nation Review, June 16.
            title=National_Review>
     Spratt, John (2007),“Monitoring War Costs,”Knight Ridder
      Tribune Business News. January 22.
            BusIndustryFinancialAll.html>
     (2002), The White House,“President Bush Delivers
      Graduation Speech at West Point,” June 1.
            2002/06/20020601-3.html>.
     (2002),“Fact Sheet:Redesigning DOJ to Prevent Future Acts
      of Terrorism,”U. S. Department of State, May 29.
     
     (2002),“Mueller Cites Changes in FBI to Enhance Fight on
      Terrorism Director Testifies before Joint House-Senate
      Intelligence Panel,”U. S. Department of State, October
      17.
     
     (2002),“Report: U. N. Working on Secret Contingency Plans
      for War; Iraq: CIA Allowed to Direct Inspectors,”Al
      Bawaba , December 23.
      .
     (2002), The White House,“President Delivers State of the
      Union Address,”January 29.
            2002/01/20020129-11.html>
     (2003), The White House,“President Discuss The Future of
      Iraq,”February 23.
            2003/02/20030226-11.html>
     (2003),“Was the Intelligence Cooked?”The New York Times,
      Jun 8.
     
     (2003),“Newspapers Across Europe Look Nervously on as a US-
      led War Against Iraq Seems Increasingly Inevitable,”BBC,
      March 18.
     
     (2003), The White House,“Remarks by The Vice President to
      The American Society of News Editors,”April 9.
            2002/04/20020411-7.html>.
     (2004),“Judging Intelligence; The Senators` Views and
      Excerpts from the Report on Iraq Assessments,”The New
      York Times, July 10.
            >.
     (2006),“Reply Letters and Emails: US Elections: The New
      Republic,”Guardian Unlimited, October13.
            o,,1928039,oo.html>
     (2007),“American Casualties and `Bravery` Plummet Iraqi
      Civilian Casualties and Resistance Rise,”Free Iraq,
      October 26.
     
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