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題名 住宅個案價格分散之時空影響-房價水準、景氣時機與區位條件之分析
作者 許淑媛
貢獻者 張金鶚
許淑媛
關鍵詞 價格分散
房價水準
景氣時機
區位條件
Price Dispersion
Price Level
Real Estate Cycle
Location
日期 2009
上傳時間 9-May-2016 15:40:36 (UTC+8)
摘要 過去住宅價格的研究多以平均數為主軸，鮮少探討價格分散（price dispersion）的現象。然而，如市場上價格分散程度增加，則平均價格在市場整體價格的描述上將失去其經濟意義。因此，本文試圖了解平均價格與價格分散的關係及價格分散的影響原因。目前，價格分散之文獻多著重於需求者行為對成交價分散的影響，未探討造成表價差異的原因。過去文獻指出，景氣及區位皆會影響建商的推案行為及訂價行為。因此，本文從供給者角度，探討房價水準、景氣及區位對表價分散造成的影響。
     本研究使用政治大學房地產研究中心與國泰建設公司所調查台北市與台北縣83Q1至97Q2住宅新推個案表價資料，分成台北市與台北縣市中心、市郊與郊外研究價格分散程度差異。結果顯示，住宅市場房價水準上升時，將增加建商的產品及訂價差異，在市場效率及資訊不足的情況下，使房價水準領先價格分散三季。而不景氣時容易對財務條件較差之廠商造成銷售壓力，使價格分散較景氣時大。區位較佳之地區因產品獨特性、價格僵固無彈性，而使分散程度小於區位較差地區。由市場上價格分散情形，我們可以觀察到市場風險的變化，景氣轉壞時或區位較差地區風險較高。
     價格分散是市場上價格混亂的現象，在產品異質性較高故不易觀察的住宅市場中，本文釐清了價格分散來自於房價水準、景氣及區位。因此，當價格分散擴大時，學術上觀察平均價格時應更謹慎的看到個體的差異，而市場上需求者更應多搜尋與比較市場上的住宅產品。
Price dispersion is a common issue in homogeneous goods literatures, but a few researches in housing market. In financial literatures, variation is an important index which means the risk of market. Especially in market depression, we should pay more attention to price variation. As a result, this paper focus on the price dispersion of housing market, and tries to find the effect of price level, real estate cycle, and location on price dispersion.
      Previous time-on-the-market studies focused on the relationship between listing price and trading price of housing unit, while this paper investigates the difference in listing price of different residential projects in new construction market. We demonstrate the degree of housing price dispersion which changes with price level, real estate cycle and location, because of the heterogeneity of seller’s strategies. After controlling the effect of product differentiation, we find that there is a positive correlation between price dispersion and risk. Our results suggest that besides the price level, we should pay more attention to the price dispersion of housing market.
參考文獻 中文文獻
     李泓見、張金鶚、花敬群，2006，「台北都會區不同住宅類型價差之研究」，『台灣土地研究』， 9( 1)： 63-87
     林育聖、張金鶚，2003，「建商訂價行為之研究--探討不同類型建商訂價行為之差異」，中華民國住宅學會第十三屆年會論文集，2003年12月11日
     林祖嘉，1992，「台灣地區房租與房價關係之研究」，『台灣銀行季刊』，43( 1)：279-312
     林祖嘉，1994，「價格分散與搜尋均衡在台灣地區住宅市場上的驗證」，『經濟論文叢刊』，22( 2)：237-269
     林祖嘉、林素菁，1993，「台灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」，『住宅學報』，1：21-45
     彭建文、賴鳴美，2006，「賣方訂價策略對成交價格之影響分析」，『住宅學報』，15( 1)：1-20
     楊宗憲，2003，「住宅市場之產品定位分析-建商推案行為之研究」，『住宅學報』，12(2)：123-139
     鄒欣樺、張金鶚、花敬群，2007，「建商不動產表價與議價策略之探討--景氣時機、個案區位、及建商類型分析」，『管理評論』，26( 3)：47-69
     廖仲仁、張金鶚，2008，「仲介服務對於住宅價格搜尋之影響」，『都市與計畫』，35( 2)：155-173
     
     英文文獻
     Adams, A. F.（1997）. Search costs and price dispersion in a localized, homogeneous product market: some empirical evidence. Review of Industrial Organization, 12（5-6）, 801- 808.
     Azar, O. H. (2005). Firm Strategy and Biased Decision Making: The Price Dispersion Puzzle. working paper.
     Baye, M. R., Morgan, J., & Scholten, P.（2004）. Price Dispersion in The Small and in The Large: Evidence From an Internet Price Comparison. The Journal of Industrial Economics, 52（4）, 463-496.
     Benabou, R.（1988）. Search, price setting and inflation. Review of Economic Studies, 55（3）, 353-376.
     Bonnie, J. B.（1998）. The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17（2）, 179-197.
     Burdett, K. & Judd , K.（1983）. Equilibrium Price Dispersion. Econometrica, 51（4）, 955-969.
     Carlson, J. A. & McAfee, R. P.（1983）. Discrete equilibrium price dispersion. Journal of Political Economy, 91（3）, 480-493.
     Diamond, P.（1987）. Consumer differences and prices in a search model. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102（2）, 429-436.
     Diamond, P.（1993）. Search, sticky prices, and inflation. Review of Economic Studies, 60（1）, 53-68.
     Gerardi, K. & Shapiro, A. H.（2007b）. Markups and the Business Cycle: The Case of the Airline Industry. working paper, Boston University.
     Goodman, A. C., & Thibodeau T. G. （1998）. Housing Market Segmentation. Journal of Housing Economics, 7（2）, 121-143
     Heil, O., & Helsen, K. (2001). Toward an understanding of price wars: Their nature and how they erupt. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 18, 83-98.
     Herrin, W. E., Knight, J. R., & Sirmans, C. F.（2004）. Price Cutting Behavior in Residential Markets. Journal of Housing Economics, 13（3）, 195-207
     Hong, P., McAfee, R. P., & Nayyar, A.（2002）. Equilibrium Price Dispersion with Consumer Inventories. Journal of Economic Theory, 105, 503-517.
     Lach, S.（2002）. Existence and Persistence of Price Dispersion: An Empirical Analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84（3）, 433-444.
     Leishman, C. （2001）. House Building and Product Differentiation: An Hedonic Price Approach. Journal of House and Built Environment, 16（2）, 131-152.
     Leung, K.Y., Leong, C.F., & Wong, S.K.（2006）. Housing Price Dispersion: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 32, 357-385.
     Lewis, M.（2006） .Price Dispersion and Competition with Differentiated Sellers. Journal of Industrial Economics, forthcoming
     Morgan, J., Orzen, H., & Sefton, M.（2006）. An experimental study of price dispersion. Games and Economic Behavior, 54, 134-158.
     Ong, S. E., Cheng, F. J., Boon, B., & Sing, T. F.（2003）. Oligoplistic bidding and pricing in real estate development: Experimental evidence. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 21（2）, 154-189.
     Ong, S. E., & Koh , Y. C.（2000）.Time-on-Market and Price Trade-offs in High-rise Housing Sub-market. Urban Studies, 37（11）, 2057-2071.
     Pratt, J., Wise, D. A., & Zeckhauser, R. (1979). Price Differences in Almost Competitive Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 93(2), 189-211.
     Ramaswamy, V., Gatignon, H., & Reibstein, D. (1994). Competitive Marketing Behavior in Industrial Markets. The Journal of Marketing, 58, 45-55.
     Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic price and implicit market: product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy, 32, 34-55.
     Tu, Y.（1997）.The Local Housing Submarket Structure and Its Properties. Urban Studies, 34（2）, 337-354.
     Yiu, C. Y., Chau, K. W., & Wong, S. K. (2008). Transaction Volume and Price Dispersion in the Presale and Spot Real Estate market - Implications for Construction of Repeat Sales Price Indices. Journal of Real Estate Economics and Finance, forthcoming.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
96257018
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0962570181
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張金鶚zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 許淑媛zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 許淑媛zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-May-2016 15:40:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-May-2016 15:40:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-May-2016 15:40:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0962570181en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/95319-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96257018zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 過去住宅價格的研究多以平均數為主軸，鮮少探討價格分散（price dispersion）的現象。然而，如市場上價格分散程度增加，則平均價格在市場整體價格的描述上將失去其經濟意義。因此，本文試圖了解平均價格與價格分散的關係及價格分散的影響原因。目前，價格分散之文獻多著重於需求者行為對成交價分散的影響，未探討造成表價差異的原因。過去文獻指出，景氣及區位皆會影響建商的推案行為及訂價行為。因此，本文從供給者角度，探討房價水準、景氣及區位對表價分散造成的影響。
     本研究使用政治大學房地產研究中心與國泰建設公司所調查台北市與台北縣83Q1至97Q2住宅新推個案表價資料，分成台北市與台北縣市中心、市郊與郊外研究價格分散程度差異。結果顯示，住宅市場房價水準上升時，將增加建商的產品及訂價差異，在市場效率及資訊不足的情況下，使房價水準領先價格分散三季。而不景氣時容易對財務條件較差之廠商造成銷售壓力，使價格分散較景氣時大。區位較佳之地區因產品獨特性、價格僵固無彈性，而使分散程度小於區位較差地區。由市場上價格分散情形，我們可以觀察到市場風險的變化，景氣轉壞時或區位較差地區風險較高。
     價格分散是市場上價格混亂的現象，在產品異質性較高故不易觀察的住宅市場中，本文釐清了價格分散來自於房價水準、景氣及區位。因此，當價格分散擴大時，學術上觀察平均價格時應更謹慎的看到個體的差異，而市場上需求者更應多搜尋與比較市場上的住宅產品。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Price dispersion is a common issue in homogeneous goods literatures, but a few researches in housing market. In financial literatures, variation is an important index which means the risk of market. Especially in market depression, we should pay more attention to price variation. As a result, this paper focus on the price dispersion of housing market, and tries to find the effect of price level, real estate cycle, and location on price dispersion.
      Previous time-on-the-market studies focused on the relationship between listing price and trading price of housing unit, while this paper investigates the difference in listing price of different residential projects in new construction market. We demonstrate the degree of housing price dispersion which changes with price level, real estate cycle and location, because of the heterogeneity of seller’s strategies. After controlling the effect of product differentiation, we find that there is a positive correlation between price dispersion and risk. Our results suggest that besides the price level, we should pay more attention to the price dispersion of housing market.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
     第一節 研究動機與目的 1
     第二節 研究問題與研究方法 3
     第三節 研究範圍與名詞界定 4
     第四節 研究架構與流程 6
     第二章 文獻回顧 8
     第一節 不動產價格相關文獻與理論 8
     第二節 價格分散相關文獻 10
     第三節 假說建立 17
     第三章 資料說明與敘述統計 19
     第一節 資料來源與篩選 19
     第二節 景氣時機與區位條件之劃分 20
     第四節 資料分析與敘述統計 25
     第四章 模型建立與實證結果 31
     第一節 房價水準與價格分散動態關係 31
     第二節 價格分散形成原因 37
     第五章 結論與建議 43
     第一節 結論 43
     第二節 建議 45
     參考文獻 47		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0962570181en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 價格分散zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價水準zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 景氣時機zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 區位條件zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Price Dispersionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Price Levelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Real Estate Cycleen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Locationen_US
dc.title (題名) 住宅個案價格分散之時空影響-房價水準、景氣時機與區位條件之分析zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文文獻
     李泓見、張金鶚、花敬群，2006，「台北都會區不同住宅類型價差之研究」，『台灣土地研究』， 9( 1)： 63-87
     林育聖、張金鶚，2003，「建商訂價行為之研究--探討不同類型建商訂價行為之差異」，中華民國住宅學會第十三屆年會論文集，2003年12月11日
     林祖嘉，1992，「台灣地區房租與房價關係之研究」，『台灣銀行季刊』，43( 1)：279-312
     林祖嘉，1994，「價格分散與搜尋均衡在台灣地區住宅市場上的驗證」，『經濟論文叢刊』，22( 2)：237-269
     林祖嘉、林素菁，1993，「台灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」，『住宅學報』，1：21-45
     彭建文、賴鳴美，2006，「賣方訂價策略對成交價格之影響分析」，『住宅學報』，15( 1)：1-20
     楊宗憲，2003，「住宅市場之產品定位分析-建商推案行為之研究」，『住宅學報』，12(2)：123-139
     鄒欣樺、張金鶚、花敬群，2007，「建商不動產表價與議價策略之探討--景氣時機、個案區位、及建商類型分析」，『管理評論』，26( 3)：47-69
     廖仲仁、張金鶚，2008，「仲介服務對於住宅價格搜尋之影響」，『都市與計畫』，35( 2)：155-173
     
     英文文獻
     Adams, A. F.（1997）. Search costs and price dispersion in a localized, homogeneous product market: some empirical evidence. Review of Industrial Organization, 12（5-6）, 801- 808.
     Azar, O. H. (2005). Firm Strategy and Biased Decision Making: The Price Dispersion Puzzle. working paper.
     Baye, M. R., Morgan, J., & Scholten, P.（2004）. Price Dispersion in The Small and in The Large: Evidence From an Internet Price Comparison. The Journal of Industrial Economics, 52（4）, 463-496.
     Benabou, R.（1988）. Search, price setting and inflation. Review of Economic Studies, 55（3）, 353-376.
     Bonnie, J. B.（1998）. The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17（2）, 179-197.
     Burdett, K. & Judd , K.（1983）. Equilibrium Price Dispersion. Econometrica, 51（4）, 955-969.
     Carlson, J. A. & McAfee, R. P.（1983）. Discrete equilibrium price dispersion. Journal of Political Economy, 91（3）, 480-493.
     Diamond, P.（1987）. Consumer differences and prices in a search model. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102（2）, 429-436.
     Diamond, P.（1993）. Search, sticky prices, and inflation. Review of Economic Studies, 60（1）, 53-68.
     Gerardi, K. & Shapiro, A. H.（2007b）. Markups and the Business Cycle: The Case of the Airline Industry. working paper, Boston University.
     Goodman, A. C., & Thibodeau T. G. （1998）. Housing Market Segmentation. Journal of Housing Economics, 7（2）, 121-143
     Heil, O., & Helsen, K. (2001). Toward an understanding of price wars: Their nature and how they erupt. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 18, 83-98.
     Herrin, W. E., Knight, J. R., & Sirmans, C. F.（2004）. Price Cutting Behavior in Residential Markets. Journal of Housing Economics, 13（3）, 195-207
     Hong, P., McAfee, R. P., & Nayyar, A.（2002）. Equilibrium Price Dispersion with Consumer Inventories. Journal of Economic Theory, 105, 503-517.
     Lach, S.（2002）. Existence and Persistence of Price Dispersion: An Empirical Analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84（3）, 433-444.
     Leishman, C. （2001）. House Building and Product Differentiation: An Hedonic Price Approach. Journal of House and Built Environment, 16（2）, 131-152.
     Leung, K.Y., Leong, C.F., & Wong, S.K.（2006）. Housing Price Dispersion: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 32, 357-385.
     Lewis, M.（2006） .Price Dispersion and Competition with Differentiated Sellers. Journal of Industrial Economics, forthcoming
     Morgan, J., Orzen, H., & Sefton, M.（2006）. An experimental study of price dispersion. Games and Economic Behavior, 54, 134-158.
     Ong, S. E., Cheng, F. J., Boon, B., & Sing, T. F.（2003）. Oligoplistic bidding and pricing in real estate development: Experimental evidence. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 21（2）, 154-189.
     Ong, S. E., & Koh , Y. C.（2000）.Time-on-Market and Price Trade-offs in High-rise Housing Sub-market. Urban Studies, 37（11）, 2057-2071.
     Pratt, J., Wise, D. A., & Zeckhauser, R. (1979). Price Differences in Almost Competitive Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 93(2), 189-211.
     Ramaswamy, V., Gatignon, H., & Reibstein, D. (1994). Competitive Marketing Behavior in Industrial Markets. The Journal of Marketing, 58, 45-55.
     Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic price and implicit market: product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy, 32, 34-55.
     Tu, Y.（1997）.The Local Housing Submarket Structure and Its Properties. Urban Studies, 34（2）, 337-354.
     Yiu, C. Y., Chau, K. W., & Wong, S. K. (2008). Transaction Volume and Price Dispersion in the Presale and Spot Real Estate market - Implications for Construction of Repeat Sales Price Indices. Journal of Real Estate Economics and Finance, forthcoming.		zh_TW