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題名 「定錨與調整」經驗法則之研究－－審計人員機率判斷行為之探討
作者 葉鴻銘
貢獻者 杜榮瑞
葉鴻銘
日期 1989
上傳時間 10-May-2016 18:54:57 (UTC+8)
摘要 論文提要內容:
審計人員的主要工作在於對財務報表的允當性表示專家意見。為了達成這個目的，他們必須收集資訊，而這些資訊並不具有完全的診斷力。因此，探討審計人員如何使用機率性資料作成判斷，是相當重要的。
本研究之目的在探討審計人員是依據規範性決策法則，或係使用"定錨與調整"經驗法則來作判斷?若審計人員依"定錨與調整"經驗法則來作機率性判斷，將會產生調整不足之偏差，且會高估連言事件(conjunctive event)、低估選言事件(disjunctive event)的機率。本論文設計四個實驗加以驗證。
受試者共有96位，係按會計師事務所規模大小分層，再隨機選出大型事務所二家，每家24人，中型事務所8家，每家6人。受試者選出後，親訪各事務所，徵求其同意與合作意願後，發給受試者一份問卷，並於數日後親自收回。
研究結果顯示:審計人員的判斷有時違反規範性決策法則，而當違反規範性決策法則時，"定錨與調整"經驗法則並無法完全解釋他們的決策行為。
參考文獻 參考書目
一、中文部分
1.杜榮瑞，"揭開審計的黑盒子－－判斷政策與品質的探索"，會計研究月刊第29期，民國七十七年二月十日，頁68-70。(a)
2.───，"會計與人類資訊處理:理論與應用"，會計研究月刊第39期，民國七十七年十二月十日，頁54-56。(b)
3.林清山，心理與教育統計學，台北:東華書局，民國七十六年四月第十三版。
4.陳兆宏，審計人員內部控制判斷行為之研究－－透視模型之應用，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十七年六月。
5.陳家聲，"管理人員的認知型態"，「邁向中國人心理研究的新紀元:認同與探索」研討會，民國七十七年。
6.顏月珠，實用無母數統計方法，台北:作者自印，民國七十五年九月初版。
7.嚴世傑，SPSS/PC+使用手冊，台北:儒林圖書公司，民國七十六年四月修訂版。

二、英文部分:
1. Ashton, R.H., "An Experimental Study of Internal Control Judgments,"Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1974), pp. 143-57.
2. ────, Human Information Processing in Accounting, Studies in Accounting Research No.17 (Sarasota, FL: AAA, 1982).
3. ────, and P.R. Brown, "Descriptive Modeling of Auditor`s Internal Control Judgments: Replication and Extension," Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1980), pp. 269-77.
4. Bamber, E.M., "Expert Judgment in the Audit Team: A Source Reliability Approach," Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn 1983), pp. 396-412.
5. Bar-Hill, M., "On the Subjective Probability of Compound Events,"Organizational Behavior and Human Performance (1973), pp. 396-406.
6. Biddle, G.C., and E.J. Joyce, "The Role of Sample Size in Probabilistic Inference in Auditing," unpublished manuscript, University of Chicago, 1979.
7. Biggs, S.F., and J.J. Wild, "An Investigation of Auditor Judgment in Analytical Review," The Accounting Review (October 1985), pp.607-33.
8. Butler, S.A., "Anchoring m the Judgmental Evaluation of Audit Samples," The Accounting Review (January 1986), pp. 101-11.
9. Felix, W.L., and W.R. Kinney, "Research in the Auditor`s Opinion Formulation Process: State of the Art," The Accounting Review(April 1982), pp. 245-71.
10. Gibbins, M., "Human Inference, Heuristics and Auditors` Judgment Processes," CICA Auditing Research Symposium, 1977.
11. Hogarth, R.M., Judgement and Choice: The Psychology of Decission,(New York: Wiley, 1980).
12. Johnson, W.B., ""Representativeness" In Judgmental Predictions of Corporate Bankruptcy," The Accounting Review (January 1983),pp. 78-97.
13. Joyce, E.J., "Expert Judgment in Audit Program Planning," Studies on Human Information Processing in Accounting, Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research (1976), pp. 29-60.
14. ────, and G.C. Biddle, "Anchoring and Adjustment In Probabilistic Inference in Auditing," Journal of Accounting Research(Spring 1981a), pp. 120-45.
15. ────, "Are Auditors` Judgments Sufficiently Regressive?," Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn 1981b), pp. 323-49.
16. Joyce, E.J., and R. Libby, "Behavioral Studies of Audit Decission Making," Journal of Accounting Literature (Spring 1982), pp. 103-23.
17. Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, "Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness," Cognitive Psychology (July 1972) , pp. 430-54.
18. ────，"On the Psychology of Prediction," Psychological Review (1973), pp. 237-51.
19. Kinney, W.R., and W.C. Uecker, "Mitigating the Consequences of Anchoring in Auditor judgments," The Accounting Review (January 1982), pp. 55-69.
20. Libby, R., Accounting and Human Information Processing: Theory and Applications, (Prentice-Hall, 1981).
21. ────, "Availability and the Generation of Hypotheses in Analytical Review," Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn 1985), pp. 648-67.
22. ────, and B.L. Lewis, "Human Information Processing Research in Accounting: The State of the Art in 1982," Accounting,Organizations and Society (1982), pp.231-85.
23. Schum, D.A., and W.M. Du Charme, "Comments on the Relationship Between the Impact and the Reliability of Evidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance (1971), pp. 111-31.
24. Slovic, P., and s. Lichtenstein, "Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance (June 1971), pp. 649-744.
25. Swieringa, R., et al., "Experiments in the Heuristics of Human Information Processing," Studies on Human Information Processing in Accounting: 1976, Supplement to journal of Accounting Research(1976) pp. 159-87.
26. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, "Belief in the Law of Small Numbers," Psychological Bulletin (1971), pp.105-10.
27. ────, "Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability," Cognitive Psychology (1973), pp. 207-32.
28. ────, "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,"Science (1974), pp. 1124-31.
29. Uecker, W., and W. Kinney, "Judgmental Evaluation of Sample Results: A study of the Type and Severity of Errors Made by Practicing CPAs," Accounting, Organization and Society (1977),pp. 269-75.
30. Wiest, J.D., Heuristic Program for Assembly Line Balancing,1961.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G91NCCV1722012
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 杜榮瑞zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 葉鴻銘zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 葉鴻銘zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 1989en_US
dc.date.accessioned 10-May-2016 18:54:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 10-May-2016 18:54:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 10-May-2016 18:54:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G91NCCV1722012en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/96286-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計學系zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 論文提要內容:
審計人員的主要工作在於對財務報表的允當性表示專家意見。為了達成這個目的，他們必須收集資訊，而這些資訊並不具有完全的診斷力。因此，探討審計人員如何使用機率性資料作成判斷，是相當重要的。
本研究之目的在探討審計人員是依據規範性決策法則，或係使用"定錨與調整"經驗法則來作判斷?若審計人員依"定錨與調整"經驗法則來作機率性判斷，將會產生調整不足之偏差，且會高估連言事件(conjunctive event)、低估選言事件(disjunctive event)的機率。本論文設計四個實驗加以驗證。
受試者共有96位，係按會計師事務所規模大小分層，再隨機選出大型事務所二家，每家24人，中型事務所8家，每家6人。受試者選出後，親訪各事務所，徵求其同意與合作意願後，發給受試者一份問卷，並於數日後親自收回。
研究結果顯示:審計人員的判斷有時違反規範性決策法則，而當違反規範性決策法則時，"定錨與調整"經驗法則並無法完全解釋他們的決策行為。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 目錄
圖表目錄
第一章 緒論………1
第一節 研究動機與目的………1
第二節 名詞解釋………4
第三節 論文結構………5
第二章 文獻探討………9
第一節 人類資訊處理研究………9
第二節 經驗法則及其偏誤－－心理學研究上的發現………17
第三節 經驗法則及其偏誤－－會計研究上的發現………32
第四節 研究假設………52
第三章 研究方法………58
第一節 受試者………58
第二節 研究工具………61
第三節 自變項、應變項及操作定義………78
第四節 施測程序………80
第五節 統計方法………81
第四章 研究結果與討論………84
第一節 實驗一之結果與討論………84
第二節 實驗二之結果與討論………88
第三節 實驗三之結果與討論………94
第四節 實驗四之結果與討論………102
第五章 結論、研究限制與建議………106
第一節 結論………106
第二節 研究限制………108
第三節 建議………108
參考書目………111
附錄A 第一次預試問卷………116
附錄B 第二次預試問卷………122
附錄C 正式問卷………128

圖表目錄
圖目錄
圖1-1 查該過程的流程圖………2
圖1-2 本論文之結構………7
圖4-1 交互作用對照圖:順序和內部控制強弱………93

表目錄
表3-1 受試樣本基本資料統計表………60
表3-2 第一次預試之判斷個案釋例………63
表3-3 第一次預試結果彙總表………64
表3-4 第一次預試後實驗二之判斷個案修改對照表………65
表3-5 第二次預試之判斷個案釋例………67
表3-6 判斷個案熟悉程度彙總表………68
表3-7 實驗一判斷個案釋例(起點為0.1%)………70
表3-8 實驗一之實驗設計方式………70
表3-9 實驗二判斷個案釋例(內部控制先強後弱) ………71
表3-10 實驗二之實驗設計方式………72
表3-11 實驗三判斷個案釋例(連言事件、五個事件) ………74
表3-12 實驗三之實驗設計方式………75
表3-13 實驗四判斷個案釋例(財務比率先好後壞) ………76
表3-14 實驗四之實驗設計方式………77
表4-1 實驗一:各組平均數與標準差………85
表4-2 實驗一:多重比較表………87
表4-3 實驗二:細格平均數和標準差………89
表4-4 實驗二:變異數分析表………90
表4-5 實驗三:問題(1)的細格平均數………95
表4-6 實驗三:變異數分析表………97
表4-7 實驗三:問題(2)的次數分配………100
表4-8 實驗三:選擇無保留意見的受試者在問題(1)中所估計的機率………102
表4-9 實驗四:細格平均數和標準差………103
表4-10 實驗四:變異數分析表………104		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G91NCCV1722012en_US
dc.title (題名) 「定錨與調整」經驗法則之研究－－審計人員機率判斷行為之探討zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考書目
一、中文部分
1.杜榮瑞，"揭開審計的黑盒子－－判斷政策與品質的探索"，會計研究月刊第29期，民國七十七年二月十日，頁68-70。(a)
2.───，"會計與人類資訊處理:理論與應用"，會計研究月刊第39期，民國七十七年十二月十日，頁54-56。(b)
3.林清山，心理與教育統計學，台北:東華書局，民國七十六年四月第十三版。
4.陳兆宏，審計人員內部控制判斷行為之研究－－透視模型之應用，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十七年六月。
5.陳家聲，"管理人員的認知型態"，「邁向中國人心理研究的新紀元:認同與探索」研討會，民國七十七年。
6.顏月珠，實用無母數統計方法，台北:作者自印，民國七十五年九月初版。
7.嚴世傑，SPSS/PC+使用手冊，台北:儒林圖書公司，民國七十六年四月修訂版。

二、英文部分:
1. Ashton, R.H., "An Experimental Study of Internal Control Judgments,"Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1974), pp. 143-57.
2. ────, Human Information Processing in Accounting, Studies in Accounting Research No.17 (Sarasota, FL: AAA, 1982).
3. ────, and P.R. Brown, "Descriptive Modeling of Auditor`s Internal Control Judgments: Replication and Extension," Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1980), pp. 269-77.
4. Bamber, E.M., "Expert Judgment in the Audit Team: A Source Reliability Approach," Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn 1983), pp. 396-412.
5. Bar-Hill, M., "On the Subjective Probability of Compound Events,"Organizational Behavior and Human Performance (1973), pp. 396-406.
6. Biddle, G.C., and E.J. Joyce, "The Role of Sample Size in Probabilistic Inference in Auditing," unpublished manuscript, University of Chicago, 1979.
7. Biggs, S.F., and J.J. Wild, "An Investigation of Auditor Judgment in Analytical Review," The Accounting Review (October 1985), pp.607-33.
8. Butler, S.A., "Anchoring m the Judgmental Evaluation of Audit Samples," The Accounting Review (January 1986), pp. 101-11.
9. Felix, W.L., and W.R. Kinney, "Research in the Auditor`s Opinion Formulation Process: State of the Art," The Accounting Review(April 1982), pp. 245-71.
10. Gibbins, M., "Human Inference, Heuristics and Auditors` Judgment Processes," CICA Auditing Research Symposium, 1977.
11. Hogarth, R.M., Judgement and Choice: The Psychology of Decission,(New York: Wiley, 1980).
12. Johnson, W.B., ""Representativeness" In Judgmental Predictions of Corporate Bankruptcy," The Accounting Review (January 1983),pp. 78-97.
13. Joyce, E.J., "Expert Judgment in Audit Program Planning," Studies on Human Information Processing in Accounting, Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research (1976), pp. 29-60.
14. ────, and G.C. Biddle, "Anchoring and Adjustment In Probabilistic Inference in Auditing," Journal of Accounting Research(Spring 1981a), pp. 120-45.
15. ────, "Are Auditors` Judgments Sufficiently Regressive?," Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn 1981b), pp. 323-49.
16. Joyce, E.J., and R. Libby, "Behavioral Studies of Audit Decission Making," Journal of Accounting Literature (Spring 1982), pp. 103-23.
17. Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, "Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness," Cognitive Psychology (July 1972) , pp. 430-54.
18. ────，"On the Psychology of Prediction," Psychological Review (1973), pp. 237-51.
19. Kinney, W.R., and W.C. Uecker, "Mitigating the Consequences of Anchoring in Auditor judgments," The Accounting Review (January 1982), pp. 55-69.
20. Libby, R., Accounting and Human Information Processing: Theory and Applications, (Prentice-Hall, 1981).
21. ────, "Availability and the Generation of Hypotheses in Analytical Review," Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn 1985), pp. 648-67.
22. ────, and B.L. Lewis, "Human Information Processing Research in Accounting: The State of the Art in 1982," Accounting,Organizations and Society (1982), pp.231-85.
23. Schum, D.A., and W.M. Du Charme, "Comments on the Relationship Between the Impact and the Reliability of Evidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance (1971), pp. 111-31.
24. Slovic, P., and s. Lichtenstein, "Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance (June 1971), pp. 649-744.
25. Swieringa, R., et al., "Experiments in the Heuristics of Human Information Processing," Studies on Human Information Processing in Accounting: 1976, Supplement to journal of Accounting Research(1976) pp. 159-87.
26. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, "Belief in the Law of Small Numbers," Psychological Bulletin (1971), pp.105-10.
27. ────, "Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability," Cognitive Psychology (1973), pp. 207-32.
28. ────, "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,"Science (1974), pp. 1124-31.
29. Uecker, W., and W. Kinney, "Judgmental Evaluation of Sample Results: A study of the Type and Severity of Errors Made by Practicing CPAs," Accounting, Organization and Society (1977),pp. 269-75.
30. Wiest, J.D., Heuristic Program for Assembly Line Balancing,1961.		zh_TW