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題名 臺灣上市公司盈餘預測:時間系列與公司預期之比較暨聯合效益分析 作者 林維珩 貢獻者 陳明道
林維珩日期 1990 上傳時間 10-May-2016 18:55:18 (UTC+8) 參考文獻 參考文獻王富中 [民78]:期中財務報表預測功能之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。江金蓮 [民77]:小道消息不足信--為『上市公司財務預測體系』催生，會計研究月刊，33期，8-15頁。周文賢 [民79]:計量經濟與時間序列分析--SAS/ETS之運用，課堂講義。林志興 [民68]:企業對外報導財務預測問題之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。林柄滄譯 [民73]:FASB的結構及其與資本市場的關係，見當前會計問題，會計研究系列叢書一，財團法人中華民國會計研究發展基金會，民76,2-11頁。林炯垚 [民78]:股價基本分析方法--盈餘預估，李越投資雜誌，十二月號，32-36頁。林煜宗 [民74]:現代投資學--制度、理論與實證，作者自印，修訂三版。吳當傑 [民77]:建立上市公司財務預測公開制度之研究，財政部暨所屬機構七十七年度研究發展項目研究報告。洪惠玲 [民76]:營業現金流量對企業失敗預測能力之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。徐春美 [民68]:期中報表預測功能之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。徐惠慈 [民75]:企業揭露預測資訊與會計師核閱之可行性研究，東吳大學會計學研究所碩士論文。許宏隆 [民75]:上市公司財務預測正確性之研究，國立政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。許俐雅 [民73]:審計溝通功能之研究--投資者對審計報告之了解，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。陳長儀 [民77]:證券投資與技術操作，作者自印。陳建榮 [民71]:臺灣地區股票上市公司業績發表會之內容及準確性之研究，國立臺灣大學商學研究所碩士論文。游萬淵 [民78]:會計盈餘預測之準確性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。楊國樞，文崇一，吳聰賢，李亦園編 [民77]:社會及行為科學研究法，臺北:東華書局。鄭素鄉 [民78]:我國上市公司季盈餘時間數列特性之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。謝國松 [民72]:從盈餘品質觀念論我國公開上市公司盈餘報導實務之改進，東吳大學會計學研究所碩士論文。魏應澤 [民76]:統計推算論，數理統計學第二冊，作者自印。鐘士鎮 [民74]:財務預測及其在我國採行之研究，東吳大學會計學研究所碩士論文。Abdel-khalik, A Rashad and Bipin B. Ajinkya [1979]: Empirical Research in Accounting: A Methodological Viewpoint, Sarasota:AAA._____ and Thomas F. Keller [1979]: Earnings or Cash Flows: An Experiment on Functional Fixation and the Valuation of the Firm, Studies in Accounting Research No. 16, Sarasota:AAA.Ahlburg, Dennis A [1984]: Forecast Evaluation and Improvement Using Theil`s Decomposition, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, No.3, pp.345-351.AICPA [1986]: Guide for Prospective Financial Statements, New York:AICPA.Armstrong, J. Scott [1977]: Long-range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer, New York:John Wiley & Sons._____ [1983]: Relative Accuracy of Judgemental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No.4,pp.437-447.Bao, D.-h., M. T. Lewis ,W. T Lin and J. G. Manegold [1983]: Applications of Time-series Analysis in Accounting: A Review, Journal of Forecasting,Vol. 2, No.4, pp.437-447.Bates, J. M. and C. W. J. Granger [1969]: The Combination of Forecasts,Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 20, No.4, pp.451-468.Bordley, Robert F. [1986]: Linear Combination of Forecasts with an Intercept:A Bayesian Approach, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, No.4, pp.234-249.Brigham, Eugene F. and Louis C. Gapenski [1985]: Intermediate "Financial Management, The Dryden Press, Chicago.Brockleband, John C. and David A Dickey [1986]: SAS System for Forecasting Time Series, Cary:SAS Institute Inc.Brown, Lawrence D. [1987]: The Modern Theory of Financial Reproting,Plano: Business Publications, Inc.______ and P. A. Griffin [1983]: Perspectives on Forecasting Research in Accounting and Finance, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No.4, pp.325-330.______ and [1987]: Evidence on the Properties of Reported Accounting Numbers, Chapter 5 of Paul A Griffin [1987]: Usefulness to Investors and Creditors of Information Provided by Financial Reporting, Stamford:FASB.______ and M. S. Rozeff [1979]: Univariate Time Series Models of Quarterly Accounting Earnings Per Share: A _Proposed Model, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 17, pp.179-189.Bunn, Derek [1989]: Forecasting with More Than One Medel, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, No.3, pp.161-166.Cameron, Alexander Brian [1982]: A Comparison of the Accuracy of Management`s Earnings Forecasts and Alternative Surrogate Measures, Ph.D dissertation, The University of Utah.Carbone, Robert and J. Scott Armstrong [1982]: Evaluation of Extraploative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners,Journal of Forecasting, Vol.1, No.2, pp.215-217.Clemen, Robert T. [1986]: Linear Constraints and the Efficiency of Combined Forecasts, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, No.1, pp.31-38.Diebold, Francis X. and Peter Pauly [1987]: Structural Change and the Combination of Forecasts, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6, No.1, pp.21-40.Edmundson, Bob, Michael Lawrence and Marcus O`Connor [1988]: The Use of Non-time Series Information in Sales Forecasting: A Case Study,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 7, No.3, pp.201-211.Foster, George [1977]: Quarterly Accounting Data: Time Series Properties and Predictive Ability Results, the Accounting Review, January, pp.1-21.______ [1986]: Financial Statement Analysis, Englewood Cliffs:Prentice- Hall, 2nd ed.Geurts, Michael D. [1983]: Evaluating a Forecasting Competition with Emphasis on the Combination of Forecasts, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No.3, pp.267-269.Granger, C. W. J. [1980]: Forecasting in Business and Economics, New York:Academic Press, Inc.______ [1989]: Combining Forecasts--Twenty Years Later, Journal of Forecasting,Vol. 8, No.3, pp.167-173.______ and Ramu Ramanathan [1984]: Improved Methods of Combining Forecasts,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, No.2, pp.197-204.Griffin, Paul A. [1977]: Time "Series Behaviour of Quarterly Earnings: Preliminary Evidence, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 15, pp.71-83.Guerard, Jr., John B. [1989]: Composite Model Building for Foreign Exchange Rates, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, No.3, pp.315-329.Gunter, Sevket I. and Celal Aksu [1989]: N-Step Combinations of Forecasts,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, No.3, pp.253-267.Hopwood, William S. [1980]: On the Automation of the Box-Jenkins Modeling Procedures: An Algorithm with an Empirical Test, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 18 No.1, pp.289-296.Jenkins, Gwilym M. [1982]: Some Practical Aspects of Forecasting in Organizations,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1, No.1, pp,3-21.Kaplan, Robert S. [1984]: The Evolution of Management Accounting, the AccountingReview, July, pp.390-418.Lorek, Kenneth S., Charles L McDonald and Dennis H. Patz [1976]: A Comparative Examination of Management Forecasts and Box-Jenkins Forecasts of Earnings, the Accounting Review, April, pp.321-330.Makridakis, Spyros [1983]: Empirical Evidence versus Personal Experience,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No.3, pp.295-306.Mathews, Brian P. and A. Diamantopoulos [1989]: Judgemental Revision of Sales Forecasts: A Longitudinal Extension, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, No.2, pp.129-140.McNichols, Maureen [1989]: Evidence of Informational Asymmetries from Management Earnings Forecasts and Stock Returns, the Accounting Review, January, pp.1-27.Nelson, Charles R. [1973]: Applied Time Series Analysis for Managerial Forecasting,San Francisco:Holden-Day, Inc.,臺北:華泰書局.Phillips, Robert F. [1988]: Comments on Testing for Forecast and Specification Optimality Using Linear Composites, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp.131-137.Reeves, Gary R. and Kenneth D. Lawrence [1982]: Combining Multiple Forecasts Given Multiple Objectives, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1, No.3,pp.271-279.Siegel, Sidney and N. John Castellan, Jr.[1988]: Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences, Singapore:McGraw-Hill, 2nd ed.Skousen, K. Fred [1987]: An Introduction to the SEC, Cincinnati:SouthWestern Publishing Co.Trenkler, G. and E. P. Liski [1986]: Linear Constraints and the Efficiency of Combined Forecasts, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, No.3, pp.197-202.Vandaele, Walter [1983]: Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, New York: Academic Press, Inc.,臺北:華泰書局.Watts, R. L. and J. L. Zimmerman [1986]: Postive Accounting Theory, Englewood Cliffs:Prentice-Hall.Winkler, Robert L. [1983]: The Effects of Combining Forecasts and the Improvementof the Overall Forecasting Process, Journal of Forecasting,Vol. .2, No.3, pp.293-294.Zarnowitz, Victor [1984]: The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Out look Surveys, Journal of forecasting, Vol. 3, No.1, pp.11-26. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G91NCCW1102012 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳明道 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林維珩 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 林維珩 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 1990 en_US dc.date.accessioned 10-May-2016 18:55:18 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 10-May-2016 18:55:18 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 10-May-2016 18:55:18 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G91NCCW1102012 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/96295 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 會計學系 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G91NCCW1102012 en_US dc.title (題名) 臺灣上市公司盈餘預測:時間系列與公司預期之比較暨聯合效益分析 zh_TW dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考文獻王富中 [民78]:期中財務報表預測功能之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。江金蓮 [民77]:小道消息不足信--為『上市公司財務預測體系』催生，會計研究月刊，33期，8-15頁。周文賢 [民79]:計量經濟與時間序列分析--SAS/ETS之運用，課堂講義。林志興 [民68]:企業對外報導財務預測問題之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。林柄滄譯 [民73]:FASB的結構及其與資本市場的關係，見當前會計問題，會計研究系列叢書一，財團法人中華民國會計研究發展基金會，民76,2-11頁。林炯垚 [民78]:股價基本分析方法--盈餘預估，李越投資雜誌，十二月號，32-36頁。林煜宗 [民74]:現代投資學--制度、理論與實證，作者自印，修訂三版。吳當傑 [民77]:建立上市公司財務預測公開制度之研究，財政部暨所屬機構七十七年度研究發展項目研究報告。洪惠玲 [民76]:營業現金流量對企業失敗預測能力之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。徐春美 [民68]:期中報表預測功能之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。徐惠慈 [民75]:企業揭露預測資訊與會計師核閱之可行性研究，東吳大學會計學研究所碩士論文。許宏隆 [民75]:上市公司財務預測正確性之研究，國立政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。許俐雅 [民73]:審計溝通功能之研究--投資者對審計報告之了解，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。陳長儀 [民77]:證券投資與技術操作，作者自印。陳建榮 [民71]:臺灣地區股票上市公司業績發表會之內容及準確性之研究，國立臺灣大學商學研究所碩士論文。游萬淵 [民78]:會計盈餘預測之準確性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。楊國樞，文崇一，吳聰賢，李亦園編 [民77]:社會及行為科學研究法，臺北:東華書局。鄭素鄉 [民78]:我國上市公司季盈餘時間數列特性之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。謝國松 [民72]:從盈餘品質觀念論我國公開上市公司盈餘報導實務之改進，東吳大學會計學研究所碩士論文。魏應澤 [民76]:統計推算論，數理統計學第二冊，作者自印。鐘士鎮 [民74]:財務預測及其在我國採行之研究，東吳大學會計學研究所碩士論文。Abdel-khalik, A Rashad and Bipin B. Ajinkya [1979]: Empirical Research in Accounting: A Methodological Viewpoint, Sarasota:AAA._____ and Thomas F. Keller [1979]: Earnings or Cash Flows: An Experiment on Functional Fixation and the Valuation of the Firm, Studies in Accounting Research No. 16, Sarasota:AAA.Ahlburg, Dennis A [1984]: Forecast Evaluation and Improvement Using Theil`s Decomposition, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, No.3, pp.345-351.AICPA [1986]: Guide for Prospective Financial Statements, New York:AICPA.Armstrong, J. Scott [1977]: Long-range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer, New York:John Wiley & Sons._____ [1983]: Relative Accuracy of Judgemental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No.4,pp.437-447.Bao, D.-h., M. T. Lewis ,W. T Lin and J. G. Manegold [1983]: Applications of Time-series Analysis in Accounting: A Review, Journal of Forecasting,Vol. 2, No.4, pp.437-447.Bates, J. M. and C. W. J. Granger [1969]: The Combination of Forecasts,Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 20, No.4, pp.451-468.Bordley, Robert F. [1986]: Linear Combination of Forecasts with an Intercept:A Bayesian Approach, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, No.4, pp.234-249.Brigham, Eugene F. and Louis C. Gapenski [1985]: Intermediate "Financial Management, The Dryden Press, Chicago.Brockleband, John C. and David A Dickey [1986]: SAS System for Forecasting Time Series, Cary:SAS Institute Inc.Brown, Lawrence D. [1987]: The Modern Theory of Financial Reproting,Plano: Business Publications, Inc.______ and P. A. Griffin [1983]: Perspectives on Forecasting Research in Accounting and Finance, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No.4, pp.325-330.______ and [1987]: Evidence on the Properties of Reported Accounting Numbers, Chapter 5 of Paul A Griffin [1987]: Usefulness to Investors and Creditors of Information Provided by Financial Reporting, Stamford:FASB.______ and M. S. Rozeff [1979]: Univariate Time Series Models of Quarterly Accounting Earnings Per Share: A _Proposed Model, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 17, pp.179-189.Bunn, Derek [1989]: Forecasting with More Than One Medel, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, No.3, pp.161-166.Cameron, Alexander Brian [1982]: A Comparison of the Accuracy of Management`s Earnings Forecasts and Alternative Surrogate Measures, Ph.D dissertation, The University of Utah.Carbone, Robert and J. Scott Armstrong [1982]: Evaluation of Extraploative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners,Journal of Forecasting, Vol.1, No.2, pp.215-217.Clemen, Robert T. [1986]: Linear Constraints and the Efficiency of Combined Forecasts, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, No.1, pp.31-38.Diebold, Francis X. and Peter Pauly [1987]: Structural Change and the Combination of Forecasts, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6, No.1, pp.21-40.Edmundson, Bob, Michael Lawrence and Marcus O`Connor [1988]: The Use of Non-time Series Information in Sales Forecasting: A Case Study,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 7, No.3, pp.201-211.Foster, George [1977]: Quarterly Accounting Data: Time Series Properties and Predictive Ability Results, the Accounting Review, January, pp.1-21.______ [1986]: Financial Statement Analysis, Englewood Cliffs:Prentice- Hall, 2nd ed.Geurts, Michael D. [1983]: Evaluating a Forecasting Competition with Emphasis on the Combination of Forecasts, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No.3, pp.267-269.Granger, C. W. J. [1980]: Forecasting in Business and Economics, New York:Academic Press, Inc.______ [1989]: Combining Forecasts--Twenty Years Later, Journal of Forecasting,Vol. 8, No.3, pp.167-173.______ and Ramu Ramanathan [1984]: Improved Methods of Combining Forecasts,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, No.2, pp.197-204.Griffin, Paul A. [1977]: Time "Series Behaviour of Quarterly Earnings: Preliminary Evidence, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 15, pp.71-83.Guerard, Jr., John B. [1989]: Composite Model Building for Foreign Exchange Rates, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, No.3, pp.315-329.Gunter, Sevket I. and Celal Aksu [1989]: N-Step Combinations of Forecasts,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, No.3, pp.253-267.Hopwood, William S. [1980]: On the Automation of the Box-Jenkins Modeling Procedures: An Algorithm with an Empirical Test, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 18 No.1, pp.289-296.Jenkins, Gwilym M. [1982]: Some Practical Aspects of Forecasting in Organizations,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1, No.1, pp,3-21.Kaplan, Robert S. [1984]: The Evolution of Management Accounting, the AccountingReview, July, pp.390-418.Lorek, Kenneth S., Charles L McDonald and Dennis H. Patz [1976]: A Comparative Examination of Management Forecasts and Box-Jenkins Forecasts of Earnings, the Accounting Review, April, pp.321-330.Makridakis, Spyros [1983]: Empirical Evidence versus Personal Experience,Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No.3, pp.295-306.Mathews, Brian P. and A. Diamantopoulos [1989]: Judgemental Revision of Sales Forecasts: A Longitudinal Extension, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, No.2, pp.129-140.McNichols, Maureen [1989]: Evidence of Informational Asymmetries from Management Earnings Forecasts and Stock Returns, the Accounting Review, January, pp.1-27.Nelson, Charles R. [1973]: Applied Time Series Analysis for Managerial Forecasting,San Francisco:Holden-Day, Inc.,臺北:華泰書局.Phillips, Robert F. [1988]: Comments on Testing for Forecast and Specification Optimality Using Linear Composites, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp.131-137.Reeves, Gary R. and Kenneth D. Lawrence [1982]: Combining Multiple Forecasts Given Multiple Objectives, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1, No.3,pp.271-279.Siegel, Sidney and N. John Castellan, Jr.[1988]: Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences, Singapore:McGraw-Hill, 2nd ed.Skousen, K. Fred [1987]: An Introduction to the SEC, Cincinnati:SouthWestern Publishing Co.Trenkler, G. and E. P. Liski [1986]: Linear Constraints and the Efficiency of Combined Forecasts, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, No.3, pp.197-202.Vandaele, Walter [1983]: Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, New York: Academic Press, Inc.,臺北:華泰書局.Watts, R. L. and J. L. Zimmerman [1986]: Postive Accounting Theory, Englewood Cliffs:Prentice-Hall.Winkler, Robert L. [1983]: The Effects of Combining Forecasts and the Improvementof the Overall Forecasting Process, Journal of Forecasting,Vol. .2, No.3, pp.293-294.Zarnowitz, Victor [1984]: The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Out look Surveys, Journal of forecasting, Vol. 3, No.1, pp.11-26. zh_TW
