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題名 專家系統與統計模擬之整合架構與實例應用 作者 洪瑞泰 貢獻者 余千智
洪瑞泰關鍵詞 模擬
人工智慧
專家系統
決策支援系統
專家模擬系統
程序庫管理系統
程式管理系統
知識庫系統
模擬環境
觀念架構
作業流程
應用工具
系統創制
等候理論日期 1989 上傳時間 10-May-2016 18:56:16 (UTC+8) 摘要 摘要 模擬常用於研究不可直接探求的真實世界，與不確定問題的分析。惟傳統模擬多不具有處理知識，邏輯推理與管理龐大資料的能力；模式建構的人機介面未能有效溝通，模擬執行結果也少提供解釋。就方法論而言，人工智慧/專家系統與模擬有諸多相似之處，兩者可互補長短。 本論文係以決策支援系統/專家系統的觀點來探討模擬，並提出專家模擬系統的整合架構，本系統為智慧型的特定模擬決策支援系統，亦即在決策支援的架構下，整合專家系統的知識庫及推論機，配合決策支援系統的系統能力，以滿足使用者制定模擬決策所須推論、分析及執行的功能。本系統對於傳統模擬軟體的諸多未盡完善事誼，也加以探討與改進。 本文是以模擬與專家系統的整合為主題，其研究脈絡為模擬環境的探討→相關文獻回顧→觀念架構→作業流程→應用工具→系統建制→實例驗證。 本文首先定義模擬及其相關名詞。回顧模擬環境，檢討傳統模擬之諸多限制，引入各種新方法以為改進之道。亦提出專家系統與模擬之整合觀念架構，討論組成元件-使用者介面、程式庫、資料庫、程序庫管理系統、推論機與知識系統與執行單元所應具備的諸多功能；並敘述架構的運作狀況。 本研究選定適當的應用工具，具體建立系統的原型，證明觀念架構所提出者俱為可行，並舉等候理論為例說明原型系統的實際操演過程。 另外，本文對以往模擬環境內各種新興的改革方法與理論，詳予分類暨回顧分析。 參考文獻 1. Adelsberger. H.H., and Neumann. G., "Goal Oriented Simulation Modeling using Prolog," Modeling and Simulation on Microcomputers, (R. Greer Lavery, ed), The Society for Computer Simulation, San Diego. Calif., 1985 PP. 42-47. 2. Ariav, B ., and Ginzberg. M.J., "DSS Design: A Systematic View of Decision Support," Communications of the ACM. Vol. 28, Ho.IO, Oct. 1985, PP.1045-1052. 3. Auerbach Publishers, Practical Data Base Management. Auerbach Publishers, Princeton, N.J. 4. Battista, G., and Ferranti, G ., "A Methodology for Conceptual Design of Statistical Databases," Compstat. Roma, 1986, PP. 431-436. 5. Bengu, G., and Haddock, j., "A Generative Simulation-Optimization System, " Comoput. & Indus. Engng., Vol. 10, No.4, 1986, PP.301-313. 6. Cheng, R.C.H., "A Note on the Effect of Initial Conditions on a Simulation Run," Operational Research Quartly, Vol. 27, No.2, 1976, PP. 467-470. 7. Cleary, J .,Goh, K., and Unger, B., "Discrete Event Simulation in Prolog," AI, Graphics, and Simulation, (G. Birtwistle, ed), The Society for Computer Simulation, San Diego, Calif .,1985, PP. 8-13. 8. Conway, R.W., "Some Tactical Problems in Digital Simulation," Management Science, Vol. 10, No.1, Oct. 1963, PP. 47-61. 9. Doukidis, G. I., "An Anthology on the Homology of Simulation with Artificial Intelligence," J. Opl. Res. Soc., Vol. 38, No.8, 1987, PP. 701-712. 10. Elmaghraby, A. S., and Jagannathan, F., "An Expert System for Simulationists." AI, Graphics. and Simulation. (G. Birtwistle, ed). The Society for Computer Simulation. San Diego, Calif., 1985. PP. 106-109. 11. Fishman, G.S ., "Estimating Sample Size in Computer Simulation Experiments, " Management Science. Vol.18, No.1, Sep. 1971, PP. 21-38. 12. Flitman, A.M., and Hurrion, R.D., "Linking Discrete-Event Simulation Models with Expert Systems," J. Opl. Res. Soc., Vol. 38, No.8, 1987, PP. 723-733. 13. Gibbons. J.D., Nonparametric Statistical Inference, McGraw-Hill Inc ., New York. 1971. 14. GURU REFERENCE MENUAL, Micro Data Base System. Inc., P.O.BOX 248 Lafayette IN 47902, 1985 15. Hayes-Roth, F., “Rule-based Systems," Communications of the ACM, Vol. 28, No.9, Sep. 1985, PP. 921-932. 16. Henriksen, J.O., "The Integrated Simulation Environment (Simulation Software of the 1990s), " Operations Research, 31(6), 1983, PP. 1053-1073. 17. Hoffman, D.B., and Carlson, C.M.,”Using Computer Graphics to Interpret Simulation Output," Simulation, 37:2,1981, PP. 59-64. 18. Holsapple, C.W., and Whinston. A.B., Business Expert Systems. Richard D.Irwin. Inc .,1987. 19. Kornell. J., "Knowledge-Based Systems for Military Simulation: Problems. Experiences. Lessons," AI. Graphics. and Simulation. (G. Birtwistle, ed), The Society for Computer Simulation, San Diego, Calif., 1985, PP. 102-105 20. Krumm, R., dBASE III plus power tools, McGraw-Hill, 1987. 21. Law, A.M., and Kelton. W.D., Simulation Modeling and Analysis, McGraw-Hill Inc., New York, 1982. 22. Lin. S.L.E., and Lin, T., "A Systematic Simulation Modelling Approach for Discrete Event Model," Chiao Ta Management Review, Vol. 6, No.1, 1986, PP. 97-120. 23. Mathewson, S.C .,and Allen, J.A., "DRAFT / GASP - A Program Generator for GASP," Proc. of the Tenth Annual Simulation Symposium (W.G. Key, et al., eds,), Tampa. FL., 1977. PP. 211-228. 24. Misra. J., "Distributed Discrete-Event Simulation," ACH Computing Surveys Vol. 18, No.1, Mar. 1986, PP. 39-65. 25. _______, and Chandy, K.H., "Distributed Simulation: A Case Study in Design and Verification of Distribution Programs." IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. SE-5, No.5, Sep. 1979, PP. 440-452. 26. Moser, J.G., "Integration of Artificial Intelligence and Simulation in a Comprehensive Decision-Support System," Simulation. 47:8. Dec. 1986. PP. 223-229. 27. Hurray. K.J.B., Knowledge-Based Model Construct jon : An Automatic Programming Approach to Simulation Modeling, Ph. D. Dissertation, Computer Science Department. Texas, A & H Univ., 1986. 28. Nof, S.M., Whinston. A.B. and Bullers. W.I., "Control and Decision Support in Automatic Manufacturing Systems," AIIE Transactions, Vol.12, No. 2, 1980. 29. O`keefe. R., "Simulation and Expert Systems - A Taxonomy and Some Examples." Simulation, 46:1, 1986, PP. 10-16. 30. _______, and Roach. J.W., "Artificial Intelligence Approaches to Simulation," J. Opl. Res. Soc., Vol. 38, No.8, PP. 713-722. 31._______,"An Interactive Simulation Description Interpreter," Comput. Opns. Res., Vol. 14, No.4, 1987, PP. 273-283. 32. bren, T.I., and Zeigler, B.P., "Concepts for Advenced Simulaion Methodologies," Simulation, 32:3, Mar. 1979, pp. 69-82. 33. Overstreet, C.M., and Nance, R.E., "A Specification Language to Assist in Analysis of Discrete Event Simulation Models," Communications of the ACM, Vol. 28, No.2, Feb. 1985, PP. 190-201. 34. Pegden, C.D., Introduction to SIH8N with Version 3.0 Enhencements, Systems Modeling Co., Pennsylvania, Jul. 1985. 35. Pritsker, A.A.B., Introduction to Simulation and SLAM II, 2nd ed., System Publishing Co., Indiana, 1985. 36. Reddy, Y.V.R ., et al., "The Knowledge-Based Simulation System," IEEE Software, Mar. 1986, PP. 26-37. 37. Schriber, T .,Simulation Using GPSS, Wiley, New York, 1974. 38. Shannon, R.E., Systems Simulation; the Art and Science, Prentice-Hall Co .,Englewood Cliffs. N.J., 1975. 39._________,Mayer, R., and Adelsberger, H.H., "Expert Systems and Simulation," Simulation, 44:6, 1985, PP. 275-284. 40. Sprague, R.H. Jr., and Carlson, E.D. Building Effective Decision Support Systems, Prentice-Hall, Englwood Cliffs, N.J., 1982. 41. Standridge, C.R., "Performing Simulation Projects with The Extended Simulation System (TESS)," Simulation, 45:6, Dec. 1985, PP. 283-291. 42.__________ , "Using the Simulation Data Language (SOL). " Simulation, 37:3, Sept 1981, PP. 73-81. 43. ___________,and Phillips, J.R., "Using SLAM and SOL to Assess Space Shuttle Experiments," Simulation, 41:1 , Jul. 1983, PP. 25-35. 44. Turban. E ., and Watkins, P., "Integrating Expert Systems and Decision Support Systems," MIS Quartly, Jun . 1986, PP.121-136. 45. Vaucher, J., "Views of Modelling: Comparing the Simulation and AI Approches," AI. Graphics. and Simulation, (G. Birtwistle, ed), The Society for Computer Simulation, San Diego, Calif., 1985, PP. 3-7. 46. Wang, M.S.Y.,and Courtney, J.F., "A Conceptual Architectual for Generalized Decision Support System Software," IEEE Transatioos 00 Systems. Man. and Cybernetics, Vol. SHC-14, Ho. 5, Sep./Oct. 1984, PP.701-711. 47. Waterman, D.A., A Guide to Expert Systems, Reading MA: Wesley, 1986. 48. Wilson, J.R . and Pristker, A.A.B., "8 Survey of Research on the Simulation Startup Problem," Simulation, 31:2, 1978, PP. 55-58. 49._________ , "Evaluation of Startup Policies in Simulation Experiments," Simulation, 31:3, 1978, PP. 79-89. 50. Yu, C.C ., "A Structured Design for General Purpose Dynamic Programming Softwares," Department of Management Information System, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C. 51. Zeigler. B.P., "System-Theoretic Representation of Simulation Models," IIE Transactions, March 1984. 52.杜修文，決策支援系統產生器的概念架構及運作過程，碩士論文，工技學院公館系，民國76年。 53.陳彰文，知識型決策支援系統的概念架構及運作過程，碩士論文，工技學院工管系，民國77年。 54.蔡禎騰，"系統理論應用於模擬"，東海大學工業工程系。 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
統計學系資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G91NCCV0892012 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 余千智 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 洪瑞泰 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 洪瑞泰 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 1989 en_US dc.date.accessioned 10-May-2016 18:56:16 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 10-May-2016 18:56:16 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 10-May-2016 18:56:16 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G91NCCV0892012 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/96301 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 統計學系 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 摘要 模擬常用於研究不可直接探求的真實世界，與不確定問題的分析。惟傳統模擬多不具有處理知識，邏輯推理與管理龐大資料的能力；模式建構的人機介面未能有效溝通，模擬執行結果也少提供解釋。就方法論而言，人工智慧/專家系統與模擬有諸多相似之處，兩者可互補長短。 本論文係以決策支援系統/專家系統的觀點來探討模擬，並提出專家模擬系統的整合架構，本系統為智慧型的特定模擬決策支援系統，亦即在決策支援的架構下，整合專家系統的知識庫及推論機，配合決策支援系統的系統能力，以滿足使用者制定模擬決策所須推論、分析及執行的功能。本系統對於傳統模擬軟體的諸多未盡完善事誼，也加以探討與改進。 本文是以模擬與專家系統的整合為主題，其研究脈絡為模擬環境的探討→相關文獻回顧→觀念架構→作業流程→應用工具→系統建制→實例驗證。 本文首先定義模擬及其相關名詞。回顧模擬環境，檢討傳統模擬之諸多限制，引入各種新方法以為改進之道。亦提出專家系統與模擬之整合觀念架構，討論組成元件-使用者介面、程式庫、資料庫、程序庫管理系統、推論機與知識系統與執行單元所應具備的諸多功能；並敘述架構的運作狀況。 本研究選定適當的應用工具，具體建立系統的原型，證明觀念架構所提出者俱為可行，並舉等候理論為例說明原型系統的實際操演過程。 另外，本文對以往模擬環境內各種新興的改革方法與理論，詳予分類暨回顧分析。 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 目錄 摘要……1 謝誌……2 目錄……3 圖目錄……5 表目錄……6 第一章 緒論……7 1. 1 模擬及相關名詞簡介……7 1. 2 傳統模擬之限制與檢討……8 1. 3 新方法的引入……10 1. 4 研究動機與目的……11 1. 5 研究內容範圍……12 1. 6 本文結構……16 第二章 文獻回顧……17 2. 1 文獻分類……17 2.2 目標導向模擬與分散式模擬……17 2.3 系統化構建模式方法-模式獨立……18 2.4 決策點……20 2.5 人工智慧語言……22 2.6 自動程式設計方法……26 程式產生器……28 自動程式規劃系統……31 智慧型模擬環境……33 2.7 視覺交談式模擬……36 2.8 模式簡化……37 2.9 結果分析與解釋……37 2.10 資料管理……39 第三章 觀念架構與作業流程……41 3.1 系統目標暨組成份子簡介……41 3.2 使用者介面……44 3.3 程式庫管理系統……45 程式規格……46 粹取對話……47 解釋介面……50 修改介面……51 重組……51 更新……52 程式庫……52 程式目錄……52 3.4 程序庫管理系統……55 程序設計……55 程序執行……57 3.5 知識庫系統……58 推論機……58 知識庫……59 3.6 資料庫管理系統……61 3.7 執行單元……62 3.8 整合方法探討……63 3.9 作業流程……65 第四章 系統建制……72 4.1 應用工具……72 4.2 使用者介面……73 4.3 執行單元……74 4.4 知識庫系統……74 4.5 資料庫管理系統……75 4.6 程式規格……75 4.7 模擬模式建構的設計概念……80 第五章 系統的實際運作過程……85 5.1 釋例……85 5.2 新程式規格的建構……85 5.3 程式規格的查詢……92 5.4 程式的轉換與執行……94 5.5 原型系統運作的檢討……97 第六章 結論與建議……98 6.1 結論……98 6.2 建議……100 參考文獻……102 圖目錄 圖1.5-1 模擬與專家系統分類法……13 圖1.5-2 流程反覆、事件排程和活動掃描的時間向度關係……15 圖2.1-1 文獻分類……17 圖2.3-1 資料庫模式與模擬模式的對照……19 圖2.3-2 系統構建模式方法之架構……19 圖2.4-1 決策點 來自系統外，來自使用者之一……21 圖2.4-2 決策點 來自系統外，來自使用者之二……21 圖2.4-3 決策點 來自系統外，來自其他系統……21 圖2.4-4 決策點 來自系統內部的特殊事件……21 圖2.5-1c 順序型的T-PROLOG 寫成之平行演算法則推論機……24 圖2.5-2 T-CP寫成之單一等候列/服務的例子……26 圖2.6-1 程式產生器之模式化過程……27 圖2.6-2 DRAFT架構……29 圖2.6-3 KBMC系統概觀……33 圖2.6-4 KBS 架構……34 圖2.6-5 綱目表示語言釋例……34 圖2.7-1 Inter_SIM的螢幕管理……36 圖2.9-1 Moser提出的整合架構……38 圖2.9-2 Bengu & Haddock 的GSOS架構……39 圖2.10-1 資料庫導向的模式建構和分折架構……40 圖3.0 專家模擬系統的觀念架構圖……42 圖3.1-1 觀念架構簡圖……43 圖3.3-1 程式庫管理系統設計概念……45 圖3.3-2 動態模式樹狀圖……47 圖3.3-3 模擬程式清單……53 圖3.3-4 模擬系統目錄分類選項……53 圖3.3-5 系統之完整資訊表格…… 54 圖3.3-6 程式資料檔…… 54 圖3.4-1 評估介面、變更介面與模擬執行的運作流程……58 圖3.5-1 知識庫系統觀念架構…… 60 圖3.9-1 使用者介面組成元件……65 圖3.9-2 執行單元的作業流程……66 圖3.9-3 目錄查詢的作業流程……67 圖3.9-4a 程式重組的作業流程……67 圖3.9-4b 程式更新的作業流程……68 圖3.9-5 新程式規格建構之作業流程……68 圖3.9-6 程式規格的解釋與程式執行之作業流程……69 圖3.9-7 程序設計之作業流程……70 圖3.9-8 程序執行之作業流程……71 圖4.6-3 多個服務資源共同完成的服務……77 圖4.6-4 平行等候列……77 圖4.6-5 非單一服務……78 圖4.7-1 釋例之流程……80 圖4.7-2 SIMAN程式的組織架構……82 圖5.1-1 釋例圖解……85 圖5.1-2 新程式規格建構的畫面……86 圖5.1-3 內定值清單……90 圖5.1-4 目錄查詢畫面……92 圖5.1-5a 規格檔清單……92 圖5.1-5b 查詢TV.icf檔的內容……93 圖5.1-6 程式的轉換與執行的畫面……94 表目錄 表1.3-1 各新方法對於磨你的可能貢獻……11 表2.5-1 三種知識表示法簡介與優缺點……23 表3.3-1 模式架構與實驗資料的各所屬事項……48 表3.8-1 整合方法覽表……64 表4.6-1 靜態模式規格……75 表4.6-2 動態模式規格……76 表4.6-6 實驗規格……78 表4.7-1 SIMAN 投入母體對應程式的決定法則……83 表4.7-2 SIMAH 等候列分支對應程式的決定法則…… 84 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G91NCCV0892012 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 模擬 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 人工智慧 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 專家系統 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 決策支援系統 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 專家模擬系統 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 程序庫管理系統 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 程式管理系統 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 知識庫系統 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 模擬環境 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 觀念架構 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 作業流程 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 應用工具 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 系統創制 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 等候理論 zh_TW dc.title (題名) 專家系統與統計模擬之整合架構與實例應用 zh_TW dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. Adelsberger. H.H., and Neumann. G., "Goal Oriented Simulation Modeling using Prolog," Modeling and Simulation on Microcomputers, (R. Greer Lavery, ed), The Society for Computer Simulation, San Diego. Calif., 1985 PP. 42-47. 2. Ariav, B ., and Ginzberg. M.J., "DSS Design: A Systematic View of Decision Support," Communications of the ACM. Vol. 28, Ho.IO, Oct. 1985, PP.1045-1052. 3. Auerbach Publishers, Practical Data Base Management. Auerbach Publishers, Princeton, N.J. 4. Battista, G., and Ferranti, G ., "A Methodology for Conceptual Design of Statistical Databases," Compstat. Roma, 1986, PP. 431-436. 5. Bengu, G., and Haddock, j., "A Generative Simulation-Optimization System, " Comoput. & Indus. Engng., Vol. 10, No.4, 1986, PP.301-313. 6. Cheng, R.C.H., "A Note on the Effect of Initial Conditions on a Simulation Run," Operational Research Quartly, Vol. 27, No.2, 1976, PP. 467-470. 7. 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