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題名 匯率不完全轉嫁下的通膨目標制之研究
Inflation Targeting Under Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through作者 呂承霖 貢獻者 林柏生
呂承霖關鍵詞 通貨膨脹目標制
匯率不完全轉嫁
小型開放經濟體
貨幣政策日期 2016 上傳時間 9-Aug-2016 09:58:47 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文以小型開放經濟體在匯率不完全轉嫁情況下的通貨膨脹目標制為研究對象，目的在於研究對於小型開放經濟體最佳的通貨膨脹目標制。欲達成此目標，本文將通貨膨脹目標制區分為承諾與權衡兩種類型，再分為匯率穩定目標的包含與否兩種類型，以此四類型通膨目標制作為分析基礎，接著模擬在此四類型通貨膨脹目標制下，當小型開放經濟體面對生產力衝擊時，各式經濟變數相應的變化情況，並對於模擬結果作分析。最後本文試圖以動態模擬分析結果闡明小型開放經濟體的貨幣當局應該如何選擇與調整其通貨膨脹目標制，以達到在面對生產力衝擊時能較快回復至貨幣當局設定的政策目標，或者減少通貨膨脹與產出缺口在達成目標期間的波動程度。 參考文獻 Adolfson, Malin (2002), “Monetary Policy with Imcomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through.” Mimeo, Stockholm School of Economics.Bernanke, Ben and Mishkin, F. (1997), “Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?” Working Paper 5893, NBERBeckworth, David (2014). “INFLATION TARGETING: A Monetary Policy Regime Whose Time Has Come and Gone.” Mercatus ResearchCalvo, G. (1983), “Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework”, Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 383–398.Clarida, Richard, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler (1999), “The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective.” Journal of Economic Literature 37, 1661-1707.Clarida, Richard, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler (2001), “Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach.” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 91, 248-252.Corsetti, Giancarlo, and Paolo Pesenti (2005), “International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy.” Journal of Monetary Economics Gali, Jordi & Monacelli, T. (2005), “Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy.” Review of Economic Studies 72, 707-734.Goldberg, Penelopi, and Michael Knetter (1997), “Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?” Journal of Economic Literature, 1243-1272.Rudebusch, G and Svensson, Lars E. O. (1999), “Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting.” ISBN: 0-226-79124-6, 203-262Jurgen von Hagen (1998), “Money Growth Targeting.” Seminar Paper No. 643, IIES, Stockholm UniversityMishkin, F. (2000), “From Monetary Targeting to Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Industrialized countries.” NEBRMonacelli, T. (2005), “Monetary Policy in a Low Pass-through Environment.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 37, No.6, 1047-1066.Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kennet Rogoff (1995), “Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux.” Journal of Political Economy 103, 624-660.Svensson, Lars E. O. (1995), “Optimal Inflation targets conservative central banks, & linear inflatopn contracts” American Economic ReviewSvensson, Lars E. O. (2000), “Open-economy Inflation Targeting.” Journal of International Economics 50, 155-183.Vestin, David (2000), “Price Level Targeting Versus Inflation Targeting in a forward looking model” IIES, Stockholm UniversityYun, Tack (1996), “Nominal Price Rigidity, Money Supply Endogeneity, and Business Cycles” Journal of Monetary Economics 37, 345-370毛維凌, 王高文 (2001), “再探恆常所得模型的跨期替代彈性估計問題”, 臺灣經濟學會年會論文集, 1-32.王泓仁 (2005), “台幣匯率對我國金融活動的影響”, 中央銀行季刊第二十七卷第一期。陳佩玗 (2012), “通膨目標機制之現況”, 國際金融參考資料 第六十三輯。張永隆 (2008), “Can exchange rate rules be better than interest rate rules?”, Japan and the World Economy 21, 301-311.張永隆（2010），“最適貨幣政策之制定─考量存貨投資的小型開放經濟新興凱因斯 DSGE 模型“，中央銀行季刊第三十二卷第一期，頁 3-24。 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
103351033資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103351033 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林柏生 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 呂承霖 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 呂承霖 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2016 en_US dc.date.accessioned 9-Aug-2016 09:58:47 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 9-Aug-2016 09:58:47 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Aug-2016 09:58:47 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0103351033 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/99748 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 103351033 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文以小型開放經濟體在匯率不完全轉嫁情況下的通貨膨脹目標制為研究對象，目的在於研究對於小型開放經濟體最佳的通貨膨脹目標制。欲達成此目標，本文將通貨膨脹目標制區分為承諾與權衡兩種類型，再分為匯率穩定目標的包含與否兩種類型，以此四類型通膨目標制作為分析基礎，接著模擬在此四類型通貨膨脹目標制下，當小型開放經濟體面對生產力衝擊時，各式經濟變數相應的變化情況，並對於模擬結果作分析。最後本文試圖以動態模擬分析結果闡明小型開放經濟體的貨幣當局應該如何選擇與調整其通貨膨脹目標制，以達到在面對生產力衝擊時能較快回復至貨幣當局設定的政策目標，或者減少通貨膨脹與產出缺口在達成目標期間的波動程度。 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 1 緒論 12 文獻回顧 73 不完全轉嫁下的小型開放經濟體模型 103.1 國內家計單位 103.2 國內廠商 123.3 國際風險分攤 133.4 設定價格僵固性的Calvo-Yun 訂價法則 143.5 國內進口商（Local Retailers of importing goods） 163.6 風險分攤、未拋補利率平價與實質邊際成本 193.7 商品市場均衡 203.8 外部世界的政策目標 223.9 本模型的穩態 (Steady state)情況 223.10 總和供給函數 263.11 總和需求函數 274 動態模擬結果 294.1 承諾式通膨目標制 294.2 權衡式通膨目標制 304.3 具匯率政策之通膨目標制 324.4 參數設定 344.5 模擬結果 354.6 模擬部分小結 415 結論 44附錄一：國內產品與進口產品的消費最適求解 48附錄二：本文動態模擬有關程式碼 49參考文獻 55 表目錄1 模型參數表 342通貨膨脹目標制政策列表 413包含匯率目標下，兩類型政策之貨幣當局總和損失表 424不含匯率目標下，兩類型政策之貨幣當局總和損失表 43圖目錄1 產出缺口權重為0.2時，權衡式與承諾式通膨之動態模擬 352 產出缺口權重為0.5時，權衡式與承諾式通膨之動態模擬 363 產出缺口權重分別為0.1與0.9的權衡式通膨之動態模擬 374 含匯率穩定目標的權衡式與承諾式通膨之動態模擬 385 含匯率穩定目標與否的權衡式通膨之動態模擬 39 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1738618 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103351033 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 通貨膨脹目標制 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 匯率不完全轉嫁 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 小型開放經濟體 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貨幣政策 zh_TW dc.title (題名) 匯率不完全轉嫁下的通膨目標制之研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Inflation Targeting Under Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Adolfson, Malin (2002), “Monetary Policy with Imcomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through.” Mimeo, Stockholm School of Economics.Bernanke, Ben and Mishkin, F. (1997), “Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?” Working Paper 5893, NBERBeckworth, David (2014). “INFLATION TARGETING: A Monetary Policy Regime Whose Time Has Come and Gone.” Mercatus ResearchCalvo, G. (1983), “Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework”, Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 383–398.Clarida, Richard, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler (1999), “The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective.” Journal of Economic Literature 37, 1661-1707.Clarida, Richard, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler (2001), “Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach.” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 91, 248-252.Corsetti, Giancarlo, and Paolo Pesenti (2005), “International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy.” Journal of Monetary Economics Gali, Jordi & Monacelli, T. (2005), “Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy.” Review of Economic Studies 72, 707-734.Goldberg, Penelopi, and Michael Knetter (1997), “Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?” Journal of Economic Literature, 1243-1272.Rudebusch, G and Svensson, Lars E. O. (1999), “Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting.” ISBN: 0-226-79124-6, 203-262Jurgen von Hagen (1998), “Money Growth Targeting.” Seminar Paper No. 643, IIES, Stockholm UniversityMishkin, F. (2000), “From Monetary Targeting to Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Industrialized countries.” NEBRMonacelli, T. (2005), “Monetary Policy in a Low Pass-through Environment.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 37, No.6, 1047-1066.Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kennet Rogoff (1995), “Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux.” Journal of Political Economy 103, 624-660.Svensson, Lars E. O. (1995), “Optimal Inflation targets conservative central banks, & linear inflatopn contracts” American Economic ReviewSvensson, Lars E. O. (2000), “Open-economy Inflation Targeting.” Journal of International Economics 50, 155-183.Vestin, David (2000), “Price Level Targeting Versus Inflation Targeting in a forward looking model” IIES, Stockholm UniversityYun, Tack (1996), “Nominal Price Rigidity, Money Supply Endogeneity, and Business Cycles” Journal of Monetary Economics 37, 345-370毛維凌, 王高文 (2001), “再探恆常所得模型的跨期替代彈性估計問題”, 臺灣經濟學會年會論文集, 1-32.王泓仁 (2005), “台幣匯率對我國金融活動的影響”, 中央銀行季刊第二十七卷第一期。陳佩玗 (2012), “通膨目標機制之現況”, 國際金融參考資料 第六十三輯。張永隆 (2008), “Can exchange rate rules be better than interest rate rules?”, Japan and the World Economy 21, 301-311.張永隆（2010），“最適貨幣政策之制定─考量存貨投資的小型開放經濟新興凱因斯 DSGE 模型“，中央銀行季刊第三十二卷第一期，頁 3-24。 zh_TW
