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題名 軟體專案承諾升級的研究─自我辯護理論與框架效應
Escalation of Commitment in Software Projects: the Self-justification Theory and the Framing Effect
作者 彭仁柏
Peng, Jen Po
貢獻者 梁定澎<br>周彥君
Liang, Ting Peng<br>Chou, Yen Chun
彭仁柏
Peng, Jen Po
關鍵詞 軟體專案管理
承諾升級
自我辯護理論
訊息框架
神經資訊系統
software project management
escalation of commitment
Self-justification Theory
Framing Effect
NeuroIS
日期 2016
上傳時間 9-Aug-2016 10:44:50 (UTC+8)
摘要 軟體專案管理中承諾升級的現象,往往為企業帶來巨大的損失,是管理者不希望但是卻經常發生的現象。過去針對這個問題的研究多以行為問卷或情境式的實驗來進行,但是近年來認知神經科學的方法逐漸被應用在資管管理的領域當中,故本研究透過功能性磁振造影(Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging, fMRI)的研究方法重新探討此一現象,取得決策者當下腦部生理上的證據以檢驗過去解釋承諾升級現象的理論:自我辯護理論與訊息框架的解釋能力,也透過fMRI方式更深入了解決策當下的腦部反應機制。幾點發現如下:
1.透過有無自我責任與正負框架的操弄,發現兩者對於軟體專案管理中的承諾升級現象,存在著交互作用,兩者會相互影響。
2.透過比對過去自我責任與框架的相關神經科學研究,證實軟體專案管理中的承諾升級,確實會受到自我責任以及訊息框架的影響。
3.將實驗中決策繼續與不繼續的情境做分類比較,發現決策者選擇繼續時,直覺情感相關的腦區產生較大的活化,且活化腦區皆偏右;而選擇不繼續時,推理思考的腦區活化較大,活化腦區皆偏左。顯示決策者選擇不繼續時是會涉入較多的理智思考,而選擇繼續投入資源有較多的情緒決策。
4.在整個實驗中發現扣帶前迴(Anterior Cingulate Cortex, ACC)有活化反應,依此腦區功能推論,顯示在進行決策時,理性與情緒系統之間會有競爭的情形發生,決策並非一味的偏向理性或是感性,而是同時存在相互拉扯。


關鍵字:軟體專案管理、承諾升級、自我辯護理論、訊息框架、神經資訊系統
The escalation of commitment often causes big losses in software projects. The phenomenon often occurs. Most previous research use questionnaire surveys or role-playing games to investigate this issue. As the Cognitive Neuroscience method becomes popular in information systems, we use the fMRI to find neural evidences in the brain based on the self-justification theory and the framing effect that often used to explain the escalation of commitment. Below are our major findings:
1.Self-responsibility and problem framing have interactions in the decision making process;
2.Self-responsibility and the framing effect activated different brain areas;
3.The decision to continue a project in trouble is more associated with in the intuition brain areas in the right cerebrum, whereas the decision to discontinue a project in trouble is more associated with the rational brain area in left cerebrum;
4.We find significant activation of the Anterior Cingulate Cortex, whose cognitive functions may indicate that the reasoning system and emotional system compete during the process of escalation decision.
參考文獻 英文部分
Adolphs, R. (2001). The neurobiology of social cognition. Current opinion in neurobiology, 11(2), 231-239.
Albright, T. D., & Neville, H. J. (1999). Neurosciences. MITECS: li-lxxii.
Bazerman, M. H., Giuliano, T., & Appelman, A. (1984). Escalation of commitment in individual and group decision making. Organizational behavior and human performance, 33(2), 141-152.
Brockner, J. (1992). The escalation of commitment to a failing course of action: Toward theoretical progress. Academy of management Review, 17(1), 39-61.
Camille, N., Pironti, V. A., Dodds, C. M., Aitken, M. R. F., Robbins, T. W., & Clark, L. (2010). Striatal sensitivity to personal responsibility in a regret-based decision-making task. Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience, 10(4), 460-469.
Cavanna, A. E., & Trimble, M. R. (2006). The precuneus: a review of its functional anatomy and behavioural correlates. Brain, 129(3), 564-583.
Chulkov, D. V., & Desai, M. S. (2008). Escalation and premature termination in MIS projects: the role of real options. Information management & computer security, 16(4), 324-335.
Cohen, M. X., Heller, A. S., & Ranganath, C. (2005). Functional connectivity with anterior cingulate and orbitofrontal cortices during decision-making.Cognitive Brain Research, 23(1), 61-70.
De Martino, B., Kumaran, D., Seymour, B., & Dolan, R. J. (2006). Frames, biases, and rational decision-making in the human brain. Science, 313(5787), 684-687.
DeMarco, T. (1982). Controlling Software Projects Yourdon. New York.
Desai, M. S., & Chulkov, D. V. (2011). Escalation of commitment in MIS projects: A meta-analysis. International Journal of Management & Information Systems (IJMIS), 13(2), 29-38.
Dimoka, A. (2010). What does the brain tell us about trust and distrust? Evidence from a functional neuroimaging study. Mis Quarterly, 373-396.
Dimoka, A. (2011). Brain mapping of psychological processes with psychometric scales: An fMRI method for social neuroscience. NeuroImage,54, S263-S271.
Dimoka, A. (2012). How to conduct a functional magnetic resonance (fMRI) study in social science research. Mis Quarterly, 36(3), 811-840.
Dimoka, A., Pavlou, P. A., & Davis, F. D. (2011). Research commentary-NeuroIS: the potential of cognitive neuroscience for information systems research. Information Systems Research, 22(4), 687-702.
Festinger, L. (1957), A theory of cognitive dissonance. CA: Standford University Press.
Fox, C. R. (2009). Prospect Theory and the Brain, & In: Glimcher, Paul W., Colin F. Camerer, Ernst Fehr and Russell A. Poldrack (eds.), Neuroeconomics.Decision Making and the Brain, 1451173.
Gonzalez, C., Dana, J., Koshino, H., & Just, M. (2005). The framing effect and risky decisions: Examining cognitive functions with fMRI. Journal of economic psychology, 26(1), 1-20.
Groups, S. (2014). Chaos report 2004.
Haynes, J. D., Sakai, K., Rees, G., Gilbert, S., Frith, C., & Passingham, R. E. (2007). Reading hidden intentions in the human brain. Current Biology, 17(4), 323-328.
He, X. and Mittal, V.(2007). The Effect of decision risk and projects stage ong escalation of commitment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process. 103, 225-23
Johnson, M. K., Raye, C. L., Mitchell, K. J., Touryan, S. R., Greene, E. J., & Nolen-Hoeksema, S. (2006). Dissociating medial frontal and posterior cingulate activity during self-reflection. Social cognitive and affective neuroscience, 1(1), 56-64.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 263-291.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American psychologist, 39(4), 341.
Keil, M. (1995). Pulling the plug: Software project management and the problem of project escalation. Mis Quarterly, 421-447.
Keil, M., & Mann, J. (1997). The nature and extent of it project escalation: Results from a survey of IS audit and control professionals. IS Audit and Control Journal, 40-49.
Keil, M., Mann, J., & Rai, A. (2000). Why software projects escalate: An empirical analysis and test of four theoretical models. Mis Quarterly, 631-664.
Krain, A. L., Wilson, A. M., Arbuckle, R., Castellanos, F. X., & Milham, M. P. (2006). Distinct neural mechanisms of risk and ambiguity: a meta-analysis of decision-making. Neuroimage, 32(1), 477-484.
Krishnamurthy, P., Carter, P., & Blair, E. (2001). Attribute framing and goal framing effects in health decisions. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 85(2), 382-399.
Kuo, W. J., Sjöström, T., Chen, Y. P., Wang, Y. H., & Huang, C. Y. (2009). Intuition and deliberation: two systems for strategizing in the brain. Science,324(5926), 519-522.
LeDoux, J. (2003). Emotion circuits in the brain.
Levin, I. P., & Gaeth, G. J. (1988). How consumers are affected by the framing of attribute information before and after consuming the product. Journal of consumer research, 374-378.
Levin, I. P., Schneider, S. L., & Gaeth, G. J. (1998). All frames are not created equal: A typology and critical analysis of framing effects. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 76(2), 149-188.
Meyerowitz, B. E., & Chaiken, S. (1987). The effect of message framing on breast self-examination attitudes, intentions, and behavior. Journal of personality and social psychology, 52(3), 500.
Monteleagre, R. and Keil, M. (2000), De-escalating information technology projects: Lessons from the denver international airport. Mis Quarterly, 24(3), 417-447
Northoff, G., Heinzel, A., De Greck, M., Bermpohl, F., Dobrowolny, H., & Panksepp, J. (2006). Self-referential processing in our brain—a meta-analysis of imaging studies on the self. Neuroimage, 31(1), 440-457.
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Staw, B. M. (1976). Knee-deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action. Organizational behavior and human performance, 16(1), 27-44.
Staw, B. M. and Ross, J. (1987), Behavior in escalation situations: Antecedents, prototypes, and solutions. In L.L. Cummings & B. M. Staw(Eds.), Research in organizational behavior (Vol. 9, pp. 39-78). Greenwich, CT: Jia Press.
Staw, B. M., & Fox, F. V. (1977). Escalation: The determinants of commitment to a chosen course of action. Human Relations, 30(5), 431-450.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211(4481), 453-458.
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Whyte, G. (1986). Escalating commitment to a course of action: A reinterpretation. Academy of Management Review, 11(2), 311-321.
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網際網路
國立中央大學認知神經科學研究所_認知神經科學介紹, 擷取自Mar 10 2016, from: http://icn.ncu.edu.tw/c.htm
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理學系
103356010
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103356010
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 梁定澎<br>周彥君zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Liang, Ting Peng<br>Chou, Yen Chunen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 彭仁柏zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Peng, Jen Poen_US
dc.creator (作者) 彭仁柏zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Peng, Jen Poen_US
dc.date (日期) 2016en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-Aug-2016 10:44:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-Aug-2016 10:44:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Aug-2016 10:44:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0103356010en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/99765-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 資訊管理學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 103356010zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 軟體專案管理中承諾升級的現象,往往為企業帶來巨大的損失,是管理者不希望但是卻經常發生的現象。過去針對這個問題的研究多以行為問卷或情境式的實驗來進行,但是近年來認知神經科學的方法逐漸被應用在資管管理的領域當中,故本研究透過功能性磁振造影(Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging, fMRI)的研究方法重新探討此一現象,取得決策者當下腦部生理上的證據以檢驗過去解釋承諾升級現象的理論:自我辯護理論與訊息框架的解釋能力,也透過fMRI方式更深入了解決策當下的腦部反應機制。幾點發現如下:
1.透過有無自我責任與正負框架的操弄,發現兩者對於軟體專案管理中的承諾升級現象,存在著交互作用,兩者會相互影響。
2.透過比對過去自我責任與框架的相關神經科學研究,證實軟體專案管理中的承諾升級,確實會受到自我責任以及訊息框架的影響。
3.將實驗中決策繼續與不繼續的情境做分類比較,發現決策者選擇繼續時,直覺情感相關的腦區產生較大的活化,且活化腦區皆偏右;而選擇不繼續時,推理思考的腦區活化較大,活化腦區皆偏左。顯示決策者選擇不繼續時是會涉入較多的理智思考,而選擇繼續投入資源有較多的情緒決策。
4.在整個實驗中發現扣帶前迴(Anterior Cingulate Cortex, ACC)有活化反應,依此腦區功能推論,顯示在進行決策時,理性與情緒系統之間會有競爭的情形發生,決策並非一味的偏向理性或是感性,而是同時存在相互拉扯。


關鍵字:軟體專案管理、承諾升級、自我辯護理論、訊息框架、神經資訊系統
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The escalation of commitment often causes big losses in software projects. The phenomenon often occurs. Most previous research use questionnaire surveys or role-playing games to investigate this issue. As the Cognitive Neuroscience method becomes popular in information systems, we use the fMRI to find neural evidences in the brain based on the self-justification theory and the framing effect that often used to explain the escalation of commitment. Below are our major findings:
1.Self-responsibility and problem framing have interactions in the decision making process;
2.Self-responsibility and the framing effect activated different brain areas;
3.The decision to continue a project in trouble is more associated with in the intuition brain areas in the right cerebrum, whereas the decision to discontinue a project in trouble is more associated with the rational brain area in left cerebrum;
4.We find significant activation of the Anterior Cingulate Cortex, whose cognitive functions may indicate that the reasoning system and emotional system compete during the process of escalation decision.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、緒論 1
第一節、研究背景與動機 1
第二節、研究目的與研究問題 3
第三節、研究流程 4
第二章、文獻探討 5
第一節、承諾升級(Escalation of Commitment) 5
第二節、解釋承諾升級相關理論 6
第三節、自我辯護理論(Self-justificaion Theory) 10
第四節、前景理論(Prospect Theory) 11
第五節、框架效應(Framing Effect) 13
第六節、認知神經科學發展 15
第七節、自我辯護理論與認知神經科學 16
第八節、框架效應與認知神經科學 17
第九節、決策與認知神經科學 18
第三章、研究架構與方法 20
第一節、研究架構與假說 20
第二節、變數操作性定義 23
第三節,實驗設計 24
第四節、資料分析方法 33
第四章、研究分析與結果 35
第ㄧ節、人口統計資料 35
第二節、行為問卷資料分析 39
第三節、fMRI行為資料分析 44
第四節、fMRI實驗分析與發現 49
第五節、交互作用下對專案繼續與不繼續之討論 62
第五章、結論與建議 68
第一節、研究結論 68
第二節、研究貢獻 71
第三節、研究限制 73
第四節、未來研究方向 74
參考文獻 76
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 4111912 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103356010en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 軟體專案管理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 承諾升級zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自我辯護理論zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 訊息框架zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 神經資訊系統zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) software project managementen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) escalation of commitmenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Self-justification Theoryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Framing Effecten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) NeuroISen_US
dc.title (題名) 軟體專案承諾升級的研究─自我辯護理論與框架效應zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Escalation of Commitment in Software Projects: the Self-justification Theory and the Framing Effecten_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文部分
Adolphs, R. (2001). The neurobiology of social cognition. Current opinion in neurobiology, 11(2), 231-239.
Albright, T. D., & Neville, H. J. (1999). Neurosciences. MITECS: li-lxxii.
Bazerman, M. H., Giuliano, T., & Appelman, A. (1984). Escalation of commitment in individual and group decision making. Organizational behavior and human performance, 33(2), 141-152.
Brockner, J. (1992). The escalation of commitment to a failing course of action: Toward theoretical progress. Academy of management Review, 17(1), 39-61.
Camille, N., Pironti, V. A., Dodds, C. M., Aitken, M. R. F., Robbins, T. W., & Clark, L. (2010). Striatal sensitivity to personal responsibility in a regret-based decision-making task. Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience, 10(4), 460-469.
Cavanna, A. E., & Trimble, M. R. (2006). The precuneus: a review of its functional anatomy and behavioural correlates. Brain, 129(3), 564-583.
Chulkov, D. V., & Desai, M. S. (2008). Escalation and premature termination in MIS projects: the role of real options. Information management & computer security, 16(4), 324-335.
Cohen, M. X., Heller, A. S., & Ranganath, C. (2005). Functional connectivity with anterior cingulate and orbitofrontal cortices during decision-making.Cognitive Brain Research, 23(1), 61-70.
De Martino, B., Kumaran, D., Seymour, B., & Dolan, R. J. (2006). Frames, biases, and rational decision-making in the human brain. Science, 313(5787), 684-687.
DeMarco, T. (1982). Controlling Software Projects Yourdon. New York.
Desai, M. S., & Chulkov, D. V. (2011). Escalation of commitment in MIS projects: A meta-analysis. International Journal of Management & Information Systems (IJMIS), 13(2), 29-38.
Dimoka, A. (2010). What does the brain tell us about trust and distrust? Evidence from a functional neuroimaging study. Mis Quarterly, 373-396.
Dimoka, A. (2011). Brain mapping of psychological processes with psychometric scales: An fMRI method for social neuroscience. NeuroImage,54, S263-S271.
Dimoka, A. (2012). How to conduct a functional magnetic resonance (fMRI) study in social science research. Mis Quarterly, 36(3), 811-840.
Dimoka, A., Pavlou, P. A., & Davis, F. D. (2011). Research commentary-NeuroIS: the potential of cognitive neuroscience for information systems research. Information Systems Research, 22(4), 687-702.
Festinger, L. (1957), A theory of cognitive dissonance. CA: Standford University Press.
Fox, C. R. (2009). Prospect Theory and the Brain, & In: Glimcher, Paul W., Colin F. Camerer, Ernst Fehr and Russell A. Poldrack (eds.), Neuroeconomics.Decision Making and the Brain, 1451173.
Gonzalez, C., Dana, J., Koshino, H., & Just, M. (2005). The framing effect and risky decisions: Examining cognitive functions with fMRI. Journal of economic psychology, 26(1), 1-20.
Groups, S. (2014). Chaos report 2004.
Haynes, J. D., Sakai, K., Rees, G., Gilbert, S., Frith, C., & Passingham, R. E. (2007). Reading hidden intentions in the human brain. Current Biology, 17(4), 323-328.
He, X. and Mittal, V.(2007). The Effect of decision risk and projects stage ong escalation of commitment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process. 103, 225-23
Johnson, M. K., Raye, C. L., Mitchell, K. J., Touryan, S. R., Greene, E. J., & Nolen-Hoeksema, S. (2006). Dissociating medial frontal and posterior cingulate activity during self-reflection. Social cognitive and affective neuroscience, 1(1), 56-64.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 263-291.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American psychologist, 39(4), 341.
Keil, M. (1995). Pulling the plug: Software project management and the problem of project escalation. Mis Quarterly, 421-447.
Keil, M., & Mann, J. (1997). The nature and extent of it project escalation: Results from a survey of IS audit and control professionals. IS Audit and Control Journal, 40-49.
Keil, M., Mann, J., & Rai, A. (2000). Why software projects escalate: An empirical analysis and test of four theoretical models. Mis Quarterly, 631-664.
Krain, A. L., Wilson, A. M., Arbuckle, R., Castellanos, F. X., & Milham, M. P. (2006). Distinct neural mechanisms of risk and ambiguity: a meta-analysis of decision-making. Neuroimage, 32(1), 477-484.
Krishnamurthy, P., Carter, P., & Blair, E. (2001). Attribute framing and goal framing effects in health decisions. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 85(2), 382-399.
Kuo, W. J., Sjöström, T., Chen, Y. P., Wang, Y. H., & Huang, C. Y. (2009). Intuition and deliberation: two systems for strategizing in the brain. Science,324(5926), 519-522.
LeDoux, J. (2003). Emotion circuits in the brain.
Levin, I. P., & Gaeth, G. J. (1988). How consumers are affected by the framing of attribute information before and after consuming the product. Journal of consumer research, 374-378.
Levin, I. P., Schneider, S. L., & Gaeth, G. J. (1998). All frames are not created equal: A typology and critical analysis of framing effects. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 76(2), 149-188.
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國立中央大學認知神經科學研究所_認知神經科學介紹, 擷取自Mar 10 2016, from: http://icn.ncu.edu.tw/c.htm
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