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題名 中國區域貿易倡議及其於亞洲的影響
China`s Regional Trade Initiatives and Their Impact in Asia作者 羅意新
Coleman, Robert貢獻者 林左裕
Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
羅意新
Robert Coleman關鍵詞 國際貿易
貿易關係
貿易倡議
中國
東亞
東南亞
貿易密集度
市場集中度
貿易多元化
貿易開放度
international trade
trade relationships
trade initiatives
China
East Asia
Southeast Asia
trade intensity
market concentration
trade diversification
trade openness日期 2016 上傳時間 9-Aug-2016 14:40:24 (UTC+8) 摘要 中國在亞洲的重量級角色在近年來已受到國際矚目，但儘管多方學者在研究該國的興起時對其政治與經濟勢力已有著墨，對於中國在亞洲地區貿易的牽動卻不大關注。 為此本文特地透過中國與東亞及東南亞諸國的貿易開放度、市場集中度與貿易強度等指標，研究亞洲地區從1992年至2014年間貿易關係的演變。而研究結果說明各國的貿易關係的確在這期間有發生顯著的變化，其效果不論是在貿易於國內生產總值的占比上或是在貿易政策的開放性上都可見一斑。此外，與中國保持高貿易強度的國家數量不僅增加了，各國各自的貿易強度也有所增長，但唯獨諸國的貿易多樣性卻比在1992年時低。 本文認為，基於1992至2014年間亞洲貿易概況及各國間貿易關係的演變，東亞及東南亞諸國如今受貿易的牽制以及對於中國貿易的依賴性均高於昔日。因此，在考量亞洲地區的未來時，中國與各國間貿易關係的演變就成為不可疏忽的一點。有鑑於如中國「一帶一路」等措施，各國對於自身對中國貿易的依賴性之審慎評估和迅速排除將是下一個難題。
China’s evolving role in Asia as a regional player has caught the attention of the international community. Many scholars have focused on a range of considerations regarding China’s rise, such as its expanding economic and political presence in Asia; however, insufficient focus has been applied to the effects of Chinese trade in the region. This paper examines the evolution of China’s trade with its East and Southeast (EA&SEA) neighbors from 1992 to 2014 and how these trade relationships have changed. It accomplishes this by examining several indicators, including trade openness, market concentration, and trade intensity for the selected countries and China. This paper’s results indicate that EA&SEA countries and China have experienced significant changes to their trade relationships from 1992 to 2014. There has been substantial growth in the trade openness for the majority of countries in the EA&SEA region, in terms of both trade to GDP ratio and in terms of trade policy. Additionally, relative to China, the EA&SEA region is now less diversified than it was in 1992. Lastly, the number of the EA&SEA countries with high trade intensity with China has increased, as well as the degree of trade intensity of EA&SEA countries. This paper concludes, that as a result of changes in trade from 1992 to 2014 and the evolving trade relationship between China and EA&SEA countries, EA&SEA countries are, on average, more vulnerable to trade and trade dependent on China. Keeping in mind China’s past and present trade relationships with EA&SEA countries is important when considering the future of the region. With the development of China’s new initiatives such as “One Belt, One Road,” evaluating and possibly reducing trade dependency is likely now more than ever, a wise endeavor.參考文獻 About UNCTAD. (2016). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Retrieved from http://unctad.org/en/Pages/AboutUs.aspxAghion, Philippe, & Howitt. (1992). A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323–351. http://doi.org/10.2307/2951599Alesina, A., Spolaore, E., & Wacziarg, R. (2005). Chapter 23 Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1(SUPPL. PART B), 1499–1542. http://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01023-3Aristotle. (n.d.). Nicomachean Ethics, Book I. Retrieved from http://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/nicomachaen.1.i.htmlAsian Development Bank. (2013). Beyond Factory Asia Beyond Factory Asia.Blinnikov, M. S. (2011). A geography of Russia and its neighbors. Guilford Press.Brawley, M. R. (2010). Political Economy and Grand Strategy: A neoclassical realist view. Routledge.Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N., & Vella, S. (2009). Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements. Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 37(No. 3), 229–247.Brown, A. (1947). Applied economics aspects of the world economy in war and peace. London: G. Allen & Unwin.Cabrillac, B. (2004). A Bilateral Trade Agreement Between Hong Kong and China: CEPA. Http://chinaperspectives.revues.org, (54).David, H. L. (2007). A guide to measures of trade openness and policy, 1–39.Escaith, H., & Maurer, A. (2015). International Trade Statistics 2015. WTO International Trade Statistics.Fuchs, E., & Stuchtey, B. (2002). Across Cultural Borders: Historiography in Global Perspective. Rowman & Littlefield. Retrieved from https://books.google.com/books?id=4wtBb5sWLyYC&pgis=1Global Economic Prospects. (2010). Washington D.C.Houghton-Mifflin. (1997). The Houghton Mifflin Dictionary of Geography: Places and Peoples of the World. The Houghton Mifflin Dictionary of Geography: Places and Peoples of the World.Ikeda, Mondale, Perry, & Usui. (1996). The Japan-U.S. Special Action Committee (SACO) Interim Report. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 1–3. Retrieved from http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/seco.htmlKojima, K. (1964). The pattern of international trade among advanced countries. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 5(1), 16–36.Macao Special Administrative Region Economic Services. (2016). Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA).Mearsheimer, J. J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. The Norton Series in World Politics, 1, 555. http://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X0403000409Miller, T., & Kim, A. B. (2016). Index of Economic Freedom. Washington D.C.Ministry of Commerce. (2015). China FTA Network. Retrieved from http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/enkorea/enkoreanews/201601/30417_1.htmlReischauer, E. O. (1974). The Sinic World in Perspective. Foreign Affairs; an American Quarterly Review, 52, 341. http://doi.org/10.2307/20038053Rodrik, D. (2010). Is Chinese Mercantilism Good or Bad for Poor Countries? Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rodrik47/EnglishRose, G. (1998). Review: Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy. World Politics, 51(1), 144–172. http://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887100007814Sanger, D. E. (1991). Philippines orders U.S. to leave strategic navy base at Subic Bay. The New York Times, 1–4. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/28/world/philippines-orders-us-to-leave-strategic-navy-base-at-subic-bay.html?pagewanted=allShambaugh, D. (2013). China Goes Global, 313.Smith, A. (1776). Wealth of Nations. Retrieved April 9, 2016, from http://www.bartleby.com/br/01001.htmlSnyder, G. H. (2002). Mearsheimer’s World: Offensive Realism and the Sruggle for Security. International Security, 27(1), 149–173.Stiglitz, J. (2002). Globalization and Its Discontents. W. W. Norton & Company. Retrieved from https://www.princeton.edu/wwac/academic-review/files/561/8.3b_StiglitzCh3_4.docTang, S. (2009). Taking Stock of Neoclassical Realism. International Studies Review, 11(4), 799–803.UNCTAD. (2012). State of Commodity Dependence 2012. Special Unit on Commodities.UNCTADstat. (2016). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Retrieved from http://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx?sCS_ChosenLang=enUnited Nations Development Programme. (2011). Export Concentration and Export Dependence. Towards Human Resilience: Sustaining MDG Progress in an Age of Economic Uncertainty. Retrieved from http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Poverty Reduction/Inclusive development/Towards Human Resilience/Towards_SustainingMDGProgress_Chapter1.pdfVohra, R. (2000). China’s path to modernization: a historical review from 1800 to the present. Upper Saddle River N.J.: Prentice Hall. Retrieved from http://books.google.at/books/about/China_s_path_to_modernization.html?id=pOAvAQAAIAAJ&pgis=1Waltz, K. (1979). The Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 251. http://doi.org/10.2307/40201892Waltz, K. (1996). International Politics is Not Foreign Policy. Security Studies, 6(1), 54–57.Winters, L. A., McCulloch, N., & McKay, A. (2004). Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far. Journal of Economic Literature, 42(1), 72–115. http://doi.org/10.1257/002205104773558056WITS. (2010). Types of Tariffs. World Bank. Retrieved from http://wits.worldbank.org/wits/wits/witshelp/Content/Data_Retrieval/P/Intro/C2.Types_of_Tariffs.htmWohlforth, W. C. (1993). The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions during the Cold War. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.World Bank. (2015a). GDP growth (annual %) | Data | Graph. Retrieved January 8, 2016, from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries/1W-US?display=graphWorld Bank. (2015b). World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Retrieved from http://wits.worldbank.org/WITS/WITS/Default-A.aspx?Page=DefaultWorld Bank. (2016). Trade Outcomes Indicators Module (WITS). Retrieved from http://wits.worldbank.org/WITS/WITS/AdvanceQuery/TradeOutcomes/IndicatorDefinition.aspx?Page=Indicator 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
103926027資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103926027 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Tsoyu Calvin en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 羅意新 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Robert Coleman en_US dc.creator (作者) 羅意新 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Coleman, Robert en_US dc.date (日期) 2016 en_US dc.date.accessioned 9-Aug-2016 14:40:24 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 9-Aug-2016 14:40:24 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Aug-2016 14:40:24 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0103926027 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/99866 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 103926027 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 中國在亞洲的重量級角色在近年來已受到國際矚目，但儘管多方學者在研究該國的興起時對其政治與經濟勢力已有著墨，對於中國在亞洲地區貿易的牽動卻不大關注。 為此本文特地透過中國與東亞及東南亞諸國的貿易開放度、市場集中度與貿易強度等指標，研究亞洲地區從1992年至2014年間貿易關係的演變。而研究結果說明各國的貿易關係的確在這期間有發生顯著的變化，其效果不論是在貿易於國內生產總值的占比上或是在貿易政策的開放性上都可見一斑。此外，與中國保持高貿易強度的國家數量不僅增加了，各國各自的貿易強度也有所增長，但唯獨諸國的貿易多樣性卻比在1992年時低。 本文認為，基於1992至2014年間亞洲貿易概況及各國間貿易關係的演變，東亞及東南亞諸國如今受貿易的牽制以及對於中國貿易的依賴性均高於昔日。因此，在考量亞洲地區的未來時，中國與各國間貿易關係的演變就成為不可疏忽的一點。有鑑於如中國「一帶一路」等措施，各國對於自身對中國貿易的依賴性之審慎評估和迅速排除將是下一個難題。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) China’s evolving role in Asia as a regional player has caught the attention of the international community. Many scholars have focused on a range of considerations regarding China’s rise, such as its expanding economic and political presence in Asia; however, insufficient focus has been applied to the effects of Chinese trade in the region. This paper examines the evolution of China’s trade with its East and Southeast (EA&SEA) neighbors from 1992 to 2014 and how these trade relationships have changed. It accomplishes this by examining several indicators, including trade openness, market concentration, and trade intensity for the selected countries and China. This paper’s results indicate that EA&SEA countries and China have experienced significant changes to their trade relationships from 1992 to 2014. There has been substantial growth in the trade openness for the majority of countries in the EA&SEA region, in terms of both trade to GDP ratio and in terms of trade policy. Additionally, relative to China, the EA&SEA region is now less diversified than it was in 1992. Lastly, the number of the EA&SEA countries with high trade intensity with China has increased, as well as the degree of trade intensity of EA&SEA countries. This paper concludes, that as a result of changes in trade from 1992 to 2014 and the evolving trade relationship between China and EA&SEA countries, EA&SEA countries are, on average, more vulnerable to trade and trade dependent on China. Keeping in mind China’s past and present trade relationships with EA&SEA countries is important when considering the future of the region. With the development of China’s new initiatives such as “One Belt, One Road,” evaluating and possibly reducing trade dependency is likely now more than ever, a wise endeavor. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1: Introduction 11.1 Research Motivation and Rationale 21.2 Research Goals and Questions 31.3 Hypothesis 41.4 Literature Review 41.4.1 Defensive and Offensive Neorealism 41.4.2 Neorealism and Latent Power 61.4.3 Limitations of Neorealism and the Emergence of Neoclassical Realism 81.4.4 Neoclassical Realism and Trade 101.4.5 Trade Openness 111.4.6 Tariffs and Non-tariff barriers 121.4.7 Country Size and Trade 14Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework 162.1 Theoretical Basis 162.2 Geographical Scope: 18Chapter 3: Methodology and Procedures 223.1 Summary of Methodological Approach and Research Design 223.2 First Indicator: Trade Openness 233.2.1 Trade Openness: Trade Orientation 243.2.2 Trade Openness: Trade Policy 263.3 Second Indicator: Trade Market Concentration (Diversification) 283.3.1 Method of Data Collection for HH Market Concentration Indexes 293.4 Third Indicator: Trade Intensity 313.4.1 Method of Data Collection for Trade Intensity Index 32Chapter 4: Research Findings and Analysis 334.1 Chinese Power in Asia 334.2 China’s Trade Liberalization and Regional Trade Initiatives 354.3 China’s Evolving Trade Relationship with East and Southeast Asian Countries 374.4 First Indicator. Trade Openness: Observations and Analysis 414.4.1 Trade Openness (Trade to GDP) 414.4.2. Trade Openness (via Trade Policy) 444.4.3 Trade Openness Implications: Trade to GDP and Trade Policy 484.5 Second Indicator. Market Concentration: Observations and Analysis 484.5.1 China’s (World) HH Market Concentration Index 504.5.2 EA&SEA Countries’ (World) HH Market Concentration 514.5.3 Comparison of (World) Market Concentration: China and the EA&SEA Countries 534.5.4 Comparing China’s EA&SEA Regional Market Index with China’s World Market Concentration 554.5.5 EA&SEA Countries (EA&SEA Regional) HH Market Concentration Index 564.5.6 Comparison of (EA&SEA Regional) Market Concentration: China and the EA&SEA Countries 584.6 Third Indicator. Trade Intensity: Observations and Analysis 594.6.1 Evaluation of EA&SEA Countries Trade Intensity 604.7 Cumulative Evaluation and Analysis of Indicators 634.8 Implications of Trade Going Forward and Future Possibilities 67Chapter 5: Conclusion 695.1 Statement of Limitations 70References 73 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2083864 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103926027 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際貿易 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易關係 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易倡議 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 東亞 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 東南亞 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易密集度 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 市場集中度 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易多元化 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易開放度 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) international trade en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) trade relationships en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) trade initiatives en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) East Asia en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Southeast Asia en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) trade intensity en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) market concentration en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) trade diversification en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) trade openness en_US dc.title (題名) 中國區域貿易倡議及其於亞洲的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) China`s Regional Trade Initiatives and Their Impact in Asia en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) About UNCTAD. (2016). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Retrieved from http://unctad.org/en/Pages/AboutUs.aspxAghion, Philippe, & Howitt. (1992). A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323–351. http://doi.org/10.2307/2951599Alesina, A., Spolaore, E., & Wacziarg, R. (2005). Chapter 23 Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1(SUPPL. PART B), 1499–1542. http://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01023-3Aristotle. (n.d.). Nicomachean Ethics, Book I. Retrieved from http://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/nicomachaen.1.i.htmlAsian Development Bank. (2013). Beyond Factory Asia Beyond Factory Asia.Blinnikov, M. S. (2011). A geography of Russia and its neighbors. Guilford Press.Brawley, M. R. (2010). Political Economy and Grand Strategy: A neoclassical realist view. Routledge.Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N., & Vella, S. (2009). Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements. Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 37(No. 3), 229–247.Brown, A. (1947). Applied economics aspects of the world economy in war and peace. London: G. Allen & Unwin.Cabrillac, B. (2004). A Bilateral Trade Agreement Between Hong Kong and China: CEPA. Http://chinaperspectives.revues.org, (54).David, H. L. (2007). A guide to measures of trade openness and policy, 1–39.Escaith, H., & Maurer, A. (2015). International Trade Statistics 2015. WTO International Trade Statistics.Fuchs, E., & Stuchtey, B. (2002). Across Cultural Borders: Historiography in Global Perspective. Rowman & Littlefield. Retrieved from https://books.google.com/books?id=4wtBb5sWLyYC&pgis=1Global Economic Prospects. (2010). Washington D.C.Houghton-Mifflin. (1997). The Houghton Mifflin Dictionary of Geography: Places and Peoples of the World. The Houghton Mifflin Dictionary of Geography: Places and Peoples of the World.Ikeda, Mondale, Perry, & Usui. (1996). The Japan-U.S. Special Action Committee (SACO) Interim Report. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 1–3. Retrieved from http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/seco.htmlKojima, K. (1964). The pattern of international trade among advanced countries. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 5(1), 16–36.Macao Special Administrative Region Economic Services. (2016). Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA).Mearsheimer, J. J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. The Norton Series in World Politics, 1, 555. http://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X0403000409Miller, T., & Kim, A. B. (2016). Index of Economic Freedom. Washington D.C.Ministry of Commerce. (2015). China FTA Network. Retrieved from http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/enkorea/enkoreanews/201601/30417_1.htmlReischauer, E. O. (1974). The Sinic World in Perspective. Foreign Affairs; an American Quarterly Review, 52, 341. http://doi.org/10.2307/20038053Rodrik, D. (2010). Is Chinese Mercantilism Good or Bad for Poor Countries? Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rodrik47/EnglishRose, G. (1998). Review: Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy. World Politics, 51(1), 144–172. http://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887100007814Sanger, D. E. (1991). Philippines orders U.S. to leave strategic navy base at Subic Bay. The New York Times, 1–4. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/28/world/philippines-orders-us-to-leave-strategic-navy-base-at-subic-bay.html?pagewanted=allShambaugh, D. (2013). China Goes Global, 313.Smith, A. (1776). Wealth of Nations. Retrieved April 9, 2016, from http://www.bartleby.com/br/01001.htmlSnyder, G. H. (2002). Mearsheimer’s World: Offensive Realism and the Sruggle for Security. International Security, 27(1), 149–173.Stiglitz, J. (2002). Globalization and Its Discontents. W. W. Norton & Company. Retrieved from https://www.princeton.edu/wwac/academic-review/files/561/8.3b_StiglitzCh3_4.docTang, S. (2009). Taking Stock of Neoclassical Realism. International Studies Review, 11(4), 799–803.UNCTAD. (2012). State of Commodity Dependence 2012. Special Unit on Commodities.UNCTADstat. (2016). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Retrieved from http://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx?sCS_ChosenLang=enUnited Nations Development Programme. (2011). Export Concentration and Export Dependence. Towards Human Resilience: Sustaining MDG Progress in an Age of Economic Uncertainty. Retrieved from http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Poverty Reduction/Inclusive development/Towards Human Resilience/Towards_SustainingMDGProgress_Chapter1.pdfVohra, R. (2000). China’s path to modernization: a historical review from 1800 to the present. Upper Saddle River N.J.: Prentice Hall. Retrieved from http://books.google.at/books/about/China_s_path_to_modernization.html?id=pOAvAQAAIAAJ&pgis=1Waltz, K. (1979). The Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 251. http://doi.org/10.2307/40201892Waltz, K. (1996). International Politics is Not Foreign Policy. Security Studies, 6(1), 54–57.Winters, L. A., McCulloch, N., & McKay, A. (2004). Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far. Journal of Economic Literature, 42(1), 72–115. http://doi.org/10.1257/002205104773558056WITS. (2010). Types of Tariffs. World Bank. Retrieved from http://wits.worldbank.org/wits/wits/witshelp/Content/Data_Retrieval/P/Intro/C2.Types_of_Tariffs.htmWohlforth, W. C. (1993). The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions during the Cold War. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.World Bank. (2015a). GDP growth (annual %) | Data | Graph. Retrieved January 8, 2016, from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries/1W-US?display=graphWorld Bank. (2015b). World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Retrieved from http://wits.worldbank.org/WITS/WITS/Default-A.aspx?Page=DefaultWorld Bank. (2016). Trade Outcomes Indicators Module (WITS). Retrieved from http://wits.worldbank.org/WITS/WITS/AdvanceQuery/TradeOutcomes/IndicatorDefinition.aspx?Page=Indicator zh_TW
