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題名 中國都市家庭平均消費傾向:依據收入水準分析(1992-2012)
The Average Propensity to Consume of the Urban Chinese Household: An Analysis by Income Level (1992 – 2012)
作者 高天維
Gonçalves, Temponi Williman
貢獻者 林左裕
Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
高天維
Gonçalves, Temponi Williman
關鍵詞 平均消費傾向
中國家庭
預防性儲蓄
生命週期假說
APC
Chinese Household
Precautionary Savings
Life-Cycle Hypothesis
日期 2016
上傳時間 9-Aug-2016 14:40:38 (UTC+8)
摘要 為了解1992年至2012年中國都市家戶平均消費傾向的遞減情形，本研究旨在衡量教育支出、醫療支出、家戶總所得、家戶眷口數以及所得成長對於所得水準的影響，探究所得水準的改變與平均消費傾向的遞減間的關係。本文使用中國經濟數據庫，以分量迴歸法，並在1995年至1996年與2000年至2002年兩個區間加入轉折點分析。實證結果顯示，醫療支出和中國的平均消費傾向呈負相關；教育支出、家戶眷口數和中國的平均消費傾向則呈正相關。其中教育支出成長路徑小於家庭總所得的成長解釋了教育支出對平均消費傾向的正向影響；而家戶眷口數的增加提升家戶的基本支出的解釋家戶眷口數和平均消費傾向的正向關係。值得注意的是，儘管總體而言，所得成長和家戶總所得對平均消費傾向有負向影響，若以所得級距做分組，高所得組之分析結果則顯示所得成長和家戶總所得對平均消費傾向有正向影響，低所得組之分析結果則反之。
1995年至1996年與2000年至2002年兩個區間的分量迴歸分析顯示，家戶平均消費傾向的遞減主要源自於兩個原因：（一）裁員的增加；（二）所得的趨異。因此，在長期之下，減少不確定性的政策、家戶對於健康與住房的支出、對經濟穩定成長的肯定、既存財富的重分配、家戶人口數的增加等，皆使平均消費傾向增加。相反地，短期之下所得成長或者家戶購買力的大幅下降使平均消費傾向增加，但因Duesenberry Effect，長期之下平均消費傾向則減少。
In trying to understand the decreasing in Average Propensity to Consume (APC) of Urban Chinese Households throughout the period 1992 to 2012, this study aims to measure the impact of Education, Health, Housing, Dependence and Income Growth on the APC of the Urban Chinese Households by Income Level. Using the CEIC Database, this work uses the Quantile Regression as the main method for the quantitative analysis. The results show that Health has a negative impact on the Chinese APC; and that Education and Dependence has positive relation. For the variables Income Growth and Housing, despite of the negative impact over the APC at the national level, the same relation is different in an analysis by income level – for the wealthier families, Housing has a positive relation to the APC (differently from the less wealthier ones); and for the less wealthy households, Income Growth is positively related to the APC.
A short qualitative section, “Analysis of the Turning Points: 1995-1996 and 2000-2002”, shows that main downturns of the National APC was mainly due to (1) the increasing number of laid-off workers; and, by (2) the real variation of income. Therefore, policies that decrease uncertainties, the household expending on health and housing, and encourage stable growth, redistribute the existing wealth and increase of the size of the family would tend to increase of the APC in a long run. In contrary, drastic decrease of Income Growth or the power of purchase of the families, for example, also would lead to the increase of the APC, but in a short term due to the Duesenberry Effect – trend that afterward tend to decrease in a long run.
參考文獻 Ando, A., & Modigliani, F. (2005). The “Life-Cycle” Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests. In F. Franco, The collected papers of Franco Modigliani (Vol. 6, pp. 47-78). Cambridge: MIT Press books.
Baker, M., & Orsmond, D. (2010). Household consumption trends in china. RBA Bulletin. Retrieved March 12, 2016, from http://www.rba.gov.au/ publications/bulletin/2010/mar/pdf/bu-0310-3.pdf
Baldacci, E., Callegari, G., Coady, D., Ding, D., Kumar, M., Tommasino, P., & Woo, J. (2010, March). Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China. IMF Working Paper, 1-28.
Barnett, S., & Brooks, R. (2010). China: Does Government Health and Education Spending Boost Consumption? IMF Working Paper, 1-13.
Carroll, C. D. (1994, February). How Does Future Affect Current Consumption? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(1), 111-147.
Chamon, M. D., & Prasad, E. S. (2010, January). Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising? (A. E. Association, Ed.) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(1), 93-130. Retrieved January 20, 2016, from http://www.nber.org/papers/w14546
Chou, S.-Y., Liu, J.-T., & Hammitt, J. K. (2003). National Health Insurance and precautionary saving: Journal of Public Economics, 87, 1873-1894.
Dabla-Norris, E., Kochhar, K., & Rick, F. (2015). Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality: A Global Perspective. International Monetary Fund.
Davino, C., Furno, M., & Vistocco, D. (2014). Quantile Regression: Theory and Applications. West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons.
Deaton, A. (2005). Research Program in Development Studies and Center for Health and Wellbeing. Convegno Internazionale Franco Modgliani, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (p. 8). Rome: Princeton University.
Duesenberry, J. S. (1966). Income-consumption relations and their implications. Readings in macroeconomics, 61-76.
Engen, E. M., & Gruber, J. (2001). Unemployment insurance and Precautionary Saving. Journal of Monetary Economics, 47, 545-579.
Friedman, M. (1957). The permanent Income hypothesis. In M. Friedman, A Theory of the Consumption Function (pp. 20-37). Princeton University Press. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4405
Global Property Guide. (2015, December 20). Global Property Guide. Retrieved from China’s property market soars to new highs: http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/China/Price-History
IBT Staff Report. (2012, July 04). 90% Of China’s Super-Rich Want to Send Children Abroad. Retrieved from International Business Times: http://www.ibtimes.com/90-china%E2%80%99s-super-rich-want-send-children-abroad-434838
Jin, Y., Li, H., & Wu, B. (2011). Income inequality, consumption, and social-status seeking. Journal of Comparative Economics, 191-204.
Kimball, M. S. (1990, January). Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large. Econometrica, 58(1), 53-73.
Leland, H. E. (1968, August). Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 82(3), 465-473. Retrieved April 14, 2016, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1879518
Lin, L. (2015, October 19). The Guardian. Retrieved from China ends one-child policy after 35 years: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/29/ china-abandons-one-child-policy
Meng, X. (2003). Unemployment, consumption smoothing, and Precautionary Savings in urban China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 465-485.
Modigliani, F., & Brumberg, R. H. (1954). Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: an Interpretation of Cross-Section Data. In K. K. Kuruhara, Post-Keynesian Economics (pp. 388-436). New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University.
Modigliani, F., & Cao, S. L. (2004, March). The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis. Journal of Economic Literature, 42(1), 145-170. Retrieved January 05, 2016, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3217039
National Bureau Statistics. (2012). China Statistical Yearbook 2012. (C. S. Press, Editor) Retrieved march 16, 2016, from National Bureau Statistics of the People"s Republic of China: http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2012/ indexeh.htm
National Bureau Statistics of China. (2002, May 17). 10. People`s Livelihood. Retrieved March 16, 2016, from National Bureau Statistics of China: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/ClassificationsMethods/Definitions/200205/t20020517_72385.html
Naughton, B. (2007). The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Nicholas, L. R. (2006, October 1). China: Toward a Consumption-Driven. Political Briefs in International Economics, pp. 1-13. Retrieved from http://ssrn.com/ abstract=2126152 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2126152
Peterskovsky, L., & Schuller, M. (2010). China and India — The New Growth. German Institute of global and Area Studies, pp. 1-8. Retrieved March 14, 2016, from ISN: ETH Zurich: http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/ Publications/Detail/?lang=en&id=122488
Pratt, J. W. (1964, Jan. - Apr.). Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large. Econometrica, 32(1/2), 122-136.
Sandmo, A. (1970, July). The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions. The Review of Economic Studies, 37(3), 354-360. Retrieved March 25, 2016, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2296725
Somasundaram, N. (2016, March 31). Bloomberg. Retrieved June 6, 2016, from China`s Little Emperors Prop Up Aussie Housing Market: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/china-s-little-emperors-prop-up-aussie-housing-with-parents-aid
The National People"s Congress of the People"s Republic of china. (2004, March 14). Constitution. Retrieved June 8, 2016, from The National People"s Congress of the People"s Republic of china: http://www.npc.gov.cn/ englishnpc/Constitution/2007-11/15/content_1372963.htm
The World Bank. (2016, April 6). China: Overview. Retrieved April 7, 2016, from The word Bank: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview
Waldmeir, P. (2013, December 29). China parents count cost of sending children to overseas universities. Retrieved from Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/ intl/cms/s/0/98c4a5ac-63c1-11e3-b70d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz4Am9NtF8J
Wen, J. (2006, March 14). MPC & CPPCC National Committee Annual Sessions 2006. (Y. Lei, Editor, & Xinhua, Producer) Retrieved April 6, 2016, from Government Work Report: http://www.gov.cn/english/2006-03/14/content_ 227247.htm
Wen, Y. (2010). Saving and Growth under Borrowing Constraints: St. Louis: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved March 10, 2006, from http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-045.pdf
World Bank, Development Research Group. (2016). GINI index (World Bank estimate). Retrieved April 07, 2016, from The World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI
Wu, X. (2014). Economics of School Choice. In X. Wu, School Choice in China: a Different Tale? (pp. 88-90). New York: Routledge.
Wu, Y., & Jacobson, S. (2015). 2015 - Health-care Outlook: China. Deloitte.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
103926029
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103926029
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Tsoyu Calvinen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 高天維zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Gonçalves, Temponi Willimanen_US
dc.creator (作者) 高天維zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Gonçalves, Temponi Willimanen_US
dc.date (日期) 2016en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-Aug-2016 14:40:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-Aug-2016 14:40:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Aug-2016 14:40:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0103926029en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/99867-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 103926029zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 為了解1992年至2012年中國都市家戶平均消費傾向的遞減情形，本研究旨在衡量教育支出、醫療支出、家戶總所得、家戶眷口數以及所得成長對於所得水準的影響，探究所得水準的改變與平均消費傾向的遞減間的關係。本文使用中國經濟數據庫，以分量迴歸法，並在1995年至1996年與2000年至2002年兩個區間加入轉折點分析。實證結果顯示，醫療支出和中國的平均消費傾向呈負相關；教育支出、家戶眷口數和中國的平均消費傾向則呈正相關。其中教育支出成長路徑小於家庭總所得的成長解釋了教育支出對平均消費傾向的正向影響；而家戶眷口數的增加提升家戶的基本支出的解釋家戶眷口數和平均消費傾向的正向關係。值得注意的是，儘管總體而言，所得成長和家戶總所得對平均消費傾向有負向影響，若以所得級距做分組，高所得組之分析結果則顯示所得成長和家戶總所得對平均消費傾向有正向影響，低所得組之分析結果則反之。
1995年至1996年與2000年至2002年兩個區間的分量迴歸分析顯示，家戶平均消費傾向的遞減主要源自於兩個原因：（一）裁員的增加；（二）所得的趨異。因此，在長期之下，減少不確定性的政策、家戶對於健康與住房的支出、對經濟穩定成長的肯定、既存財富的重分配、家戶人口數的增加等，皆使平均消費傾向增加。相反地，短期之下所得成長或者家戶購買力的大幅下降使平均消費傾向增加，但因Duesenberry Effect，長期之下平均消費傾向則減少。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In trying to understand the decreasing in Average Propensity to Consume (APC) of Urban Chinese Households throughout the period 1992 to 2012, this study aims to measure the impact of Education, Health, Housing, Dependence and Income Growth on the APC of the Urban Chinese Households by Income Level. Using the CEIC Database, this work uses the Quantile Regression as the main method for the quantitative analysis. The results show that Health has a negative impact on the Chinese APC; and that Education and Dependence has positive relation. For the variables Income Growth and Housing, despite of the negative impact over the APC at the national level, the same relation is different in an analysis by income level – for the wealthier families, Housing has a positive relation to the APC (differently from the less wealthier ones); and for the less wealthy households, Income Growth is positively related to the APC.
A short qualitative section, “Analysis of the Turning Points: 1995-1996 and 2000-2002”, shows that main downturns of the National APC was mainly due to (1) the increasing number of laid-off workers; and, by (2) the real variation of income. Therefore, policies that decrease uncertainties, the household expending on health and housing, and encourage stable growth, redistribute the existing wealth and increase of the size of the family would tend to increase of the APC in a long run. In contrary, drastic decrease of Income Growth or the power of purchase of the families, for example, also would lead to the increase of the APC, but in a short term due to the Duesenberry Effect – trend that afterward tend to decrease in a long run.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Acknowledgments II
Abstract III
List of Tables VI
List of Graphs VII
List of Figures VIII
Chapter 1- Introduction 1
1.1 Context and Motivations 1
1.2 Objectives and Variables 6
1.3 Research Process 9
Chapter 2 - Literature Review 10
2.1 The Precautionary Savings Theory 10
2.2 The Life-Cycle Model 14
2.3 Treatment of the Indicators 17
Chapter 3 - Methodology and Data Information 20
3.1 Methodology 20
3.1.1 Quantile Regression 20
3.1.2 Analysis of the Turning Points: 1995-1996 and 2000-2002 22
3.2 Data Information 23
Chapter 4 - Results & Discussions 26
4.1 Empirical Results 26
4.1.1 National Level 26
4.1.2 Level of Income 29
4.2 Overall Interpretation of the results 44
4.3 Analysis of the Turning Points: 1995-1996 and 2000-2002 57
Chapter 5 - Conclusion 61
5.1 Policy Implications 61
5.2 Contributions & Limitations 63
5.3 Final Words 67
APPENDIX I 70
References 73		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1362955 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103926029en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 平均消費傾向zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國家庭zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預防性儲蓄zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生命週期假說zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) APCen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Chinese Householden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Precautionary Savingsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Life-Cycle Hypothesisen_US
dc.title (題名) 中國都市家庭平均消費傾向:依據收入水準分析(1992-2012)zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Average Propensity to Consume of the Urban Chinese Household: An Analysis by Income Level (1992 – 2012)en_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ando, A., & Modigliani, F. (2005). The “Life-Cycle” Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests. In F. Franco, The collected papers of Franco Modigliani (Vol. 6, pp. 47-78). Cambridge: MIT Press books.
Baker, M., & Orsmond, D. (2010). Household consumption trends in china. RBA Bulletin. Retrieved March 12, 2016, from http://www.rba.gov.au/ publications/bulletin/2010/mar/pdf/bu-0310-3.pdf
Baldacci, E., Callegari, G., Coady, D., Ding, D., Kumar, M., Tommasino, P., & Woo, J. (2010, March). Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China. IMF Working Paper, 1-28.
Barnett, S., & Brooks, R. (2010). China: Does Government Health and Education Spending Boost Consumption? IMF Working Paper, 1-13.
Carroll, C. D. (1994, February). How Does Future Affect Current Consumption? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(1), 111-147.
Chamon, M. D., & Prasad, E. S. (2010, January). Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising? (A. E. Association, Ed.) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(1), 93-130. Retrieved January 20, 2016, from http://www.nber.org/papers/w14546
Chou, S.-Y., Liu, J.-T., & Hammitt, J. K. (2003). National Health Insurance and precautionary saving: Journal of Public Economics, 87, 1873-1894.
Dabla-Norris, E., Kochhar, K., & Rick, F. (2015). Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality: A Global Perspective. International Monetary Fund.
Davino, C., Furno, M., & Vistocco, D. (2014). Quantile Regression: Theory and Applications. West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons.
Deaton, A. (2005). Research Program in Development Studies and Center for Health and Wellbeing. Convegno Internazionale Franco Modgliani, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (p. 8). Rome: Princeton University.
Duesenberry, J. S. (1966). Income-consumption relations and their implications. Readings in macroeconomics, 61-76.
Engen, E. M., & Gruber, J. (2001). Unemployment insurance and Precautionary Saving. Journal of Monetary Economics, 47, 545-579.
Friedman, M. (1957). The permanent Income hypothesis. In M. Friedman, A Theory of the Consumption Function (pp. 20-37). Princeton University Press. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4405
Global Property Guide. (2015, December 20). Global Property Guide. Retrieved from China’s property market soars to new highs: http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/China/Price-History
IBT Staff Report. (2012, July 04). 90% Of China’s Super-Rich Want to Send Children Abroad. Retrieved from International Business Times: http://www.ibtimes.com/90-china%E2%80%99s-super-rich-want-send-children-abroad-434838
Jin, Y., Li, H., & Wu, B. (2011). Income inequality, consumption, and social-status seeking. Journal of Comparative Economics, 191-204.
Kimball, M. S. (1990, January). Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large. Econometrica, 58(1), 53-73.
Leland, H. E. (1968, August). Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 82(3), 465-473. Retrieved April 14, 2016, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1879518
Lin, L. (2015, October 19). The Guardian. Retrieved from China ends one-child policy after 35 years: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/29/ china-abandons-one-child-policy
Meng, X. (2003). Unemployment, consumption smoothing, and Precautionary Savings in urban China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 465-485.
Modigliani, F., & Brumberg, R. H. (1954). Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: an Interpretation of Cross-Section Data. In K. K. Kuruhara, Post-Keynesian Economics (pp. 388-436). New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University.
Modigliani, F., & Cao, S. L. (2004, March). The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis. Journal of Economic Literature, 42(1), 145-170. Retrieved January 05, 2016, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3217039
National Bureau Statistics. (2012). China Statistical Yearbook 2012. (C. S. Press, Editor) Retrieved march 16, 2016, from National Bureau Statistics of the People"s Republic of China: http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2012/ indexeh.htm
National Bureau Statistics of China. (2002, May 17). 10. People`s Livelihood. Retrieved March 16, 2016, from National Bureau Statistics of China: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/ClassificationsMethods/Definitions/200205/t20020517_72385.html
Naughton, B. (2007). The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Nicholas, L. R. (2006, October 1). China: Toward a Consumption-Driven. Political Briefs in International Economics, pp. 1-13. Retrieved from http://ssrn.com/ abstract=2126152 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2126152
Peterskovsky, L., & Schuller, M. (2010). China and India — The New Growth. German Institute of global and Area Studies, pp. 1-8. Retrieved March 14, 2016, from ISN: ETH Zurich: http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/ Publications/Detail/?lang=en&id=122488
Pratt, J. W. (1964, Jan. - Apr.). Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large. Econometrica, 32(1/2), 122-136.
Sandmo, A. (1970, July). The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions. The Review of Economic Studies, 37(3), 354-360. Retrieved March 25, 2016, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2296725
Somasundaram, N. (2016, March 31). Bloomberg. Retrieved June 6, 2016, from China`s Little Emperors Prop Up Aussie Housing Market: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/china-s-little-emperors-prop-up-aussie-housing-with-parents-aid
The National People"s Congress of the People"s Republic of china. (2004, March 14). Constitution. Retrieved June 8, 2016, from The National People"s Congress of the People"s Republic of china: http://www.npc.gov.cn/ englishnpc/Constitution/2007-11/15/content_1372963.htm
The World Bank. (2016, April 6). China: Overview. Retrieved April 7, 2016, from The word Bank: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview
Waldmeir, P. (2013, December 29). China parents count cost of sending children to overseas universities. Retrieved from Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/ intl/cms/s/0/98c4a5ac-63c1-11e3-b70d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz4Am9NtF8J
Wen, J. (2006, March 14). MPC & CPPCC National Committee Annual Sessions 2006. (Y. Lei, Editor, & Xinhua, Producer) Retrieved April 6, 2016, from Government Work Report: http://www.gov.cn/english/2006-03/14/content_ 227247.htm
Wen, Y. (2010). Saving and Growth under Borrowing Constraints: St. Louis: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved March 10, 2006, from http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-045.pdf
World Bank, Development Research Group. (2016). GINI index (World Bank estimate). Retrieved April 07, 2016, from The World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI
Wu, X. (2014). Economics of School Choice. In X. Wu, School Choice in China: a Different Tale? (pp. 88-90). New York: Routledge.
Wu, Y., & Jacobson, S. (2015). 2015 - Health-care Outlook: China. Deloitte.		zh_TW