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題名 財務報表舞弊偵測模型之建立-以中國上市公司為例
Building Fraudulent Financial Statement Detecting Model: Evidence from China Listed Companies作者 甄典蕙
Chen, Tien Hui貢獻者 林宛瑩
Lin, Wan Ying
甄典蕙
Chen, Tien Hui關鍵詞 財務報表舞弊
Logistic迴歸
裁決性收入
Z"-Score
Fraudulent financial reporting
Logistic regression
Discretionary revenue
Z"-Score日期 2015 上傳時間 22-Aug-2016 10:42:11 (UTC+8) 摘要 由於財務報表舞弊往往足以震撼投資大眾，造成資本市場重大損失，各國監管單位無不盡力降低此事件之爆發，以維護資本市場秩序、保障投資人，是以本研究欲瞭解影響中國大陸上市公司舞弊之因素為何，以及如何建立舞弊預測模型提供財務報表使用者作為參考之用。本文利用2007年至2014年受懲罰之上市公司為研究對象，採Logistic迴歸進行實證分析，結果顯示裁決性收入與Z"-Score對於財務報表舞弊無顯著相關，相反的獨立董事比例、是否具ST壓力、存貨週轉率、應收帳款週轉率、主營業務利潤率與財務報表舞弊具顯著關係，另外利用迴歸結果中顯著變數建立財務報表舞弊模型，發現整體正確率為53.31％。
Due to the severe impacts caused by fraudulent financial reporting, securities regulatory commissions in most countries put much emphasis on maintaining the order of the capital markets and protecting the investors’ interests. In order to realize the factors of financial statement fraud, especially for China listed companies, and build the detecting model for the financial statements users, I select some listed companies punished by the government during the period 2007-2014 as the samples in this dissertation. Then, I use logistic regression model to test which variables are significant to fraudulent financial reporting, and the results show that the discretionary revenue and Z"-Score do not have impact on it. On the contrary, the percentage of independent directors, pressure from avoiding being “ST”, inventory turnover, accounts receivable turnover, and percentage of income from main operation are significantly relevant to fraudulent financial reporting. Moreover, when including these significant variables in the detecting model, the accuracy of the model can up to 53.31 percent.參考文獻 方軍雄，2005，財務報表舞弊與探索方法的分析，上市公司，第7期：25-29。岳殿民、韓傳模、吳曉丹與Chu, C. 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國立政治大學
會計學系
102353105資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1023531051 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林宛瑩 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Wan Ying en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 甄典蕙 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Tien Hui en_US dc.creator (作者) 甄典蕙 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chen, Tien Hui en_US dc.date (日期) 2015 en_US dc.date.accessioned 22-Aug-2016 10:42:11 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 22-Aug-2016 10:42:11 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 22-Aug-2016 10:42:11 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1023531051 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100451 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 會計學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102353105 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 由於財務報表舞弊往往足以震撼投資大眾，造成資本市場重大損失，各國監管單位無不盡力降低此事件之爆發，以維護資本市場秩序、保障投資人，是以本研究欲瞭解影響中國大陸上市公司舞弊之因素為何，以及如何建立舞弊預測模型提供財務報表使用者作為參考之用。本文利用2007年至2014年受懲罰之上市公司為研究對象，採Logistic迴歸進行實證分析，結果顯示裁決性收入與Z"-Score對於財務報表舞弊無顯著相關，相反的獨立董事比例、是否具ST壓力、存貨週轉率、應收帳款週轉率、主營業務利潤率與財務報表舞弊具顯著關係，另外利用迴歸結果中顯著變數建立財務報表舞弊模型，發現整體正確率為53.31％。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Due to the severe impacts caused by fraudulent financial reporting, securities regulatory commissions in most countries put much emphasis on maintaining the order of the capital markets and protecting the investors’ interests. In order to realize the factors of financial statement fraud, especially for China listed companies, and build the detecting model for the financial statements users, I select some listed companies punished by the government during the period 2007-2014 as the samples in this dissertation. Then, I use logistic regression model to test which variables are significant to fraudulent financial reporting, and the results show that the discretionary revenue and Z"-Score do not have impact on it. On the contrary, the percentage of independent directors, pressure from avoiding being “ST”, inventory turnover, accounts receivable turnover, and percentage of income from main operation are significantly relevant to fraudulent financial reporting. Moreover, when including these significant variables in the detecting model, the accuracy of the model can up to 53.31 percent. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究問題 3第三節 論文架構 5第二章 文獻探討 6第一節 財務報表舞弊之理論基礎 6第二節 財務報表舞弊因素之探討 11第三章 研究方法 21第一節 研究假說 21第二節 實證模型與變數定義 23第三節 樣本取樣 32第四章 實證分析結果 33第一節 敘述性統計 33第二節 相關係數矩陣分析 37第三節 Logistic迴歸結果 40第四節 模型修正與預測 44第五節 額外分析 48第五章 結論與建議 52第一節 結論 52第二節 研究限制與建議 54參考文獻 56 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1023531051 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財務報表舞弊 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Logistic迴歸 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 裁決性收入 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Z"-Score zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fraudulent financial reporting en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Logistic regression en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Discretionary revenue en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Z"-Score en_US dc.title (題名) 財務報表舞弊偵測模型之建立-以中國上市公司為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Building Fraudulent Financial Statement Detecting Model: Evidence from China Listed Companies en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 方軍雄，2005，財務報表舞弊與探索方法的分析，上市公司，第7期：25-29。岳殿民、韓傳模、吳曉丹與Chu, C. 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