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題名 軟體專案承諾升級─沉沒成本與趨避理論的觀點
Escalation of Commitment in Software Projects: The Sunk Cost Effect and Approach-Avoidance Theory Perspectives
作者 余曉玟
Yu, Hsiao Wen
貢獻者 梁定澎<br>周彥君
Liang, Ting Peng<br>Chou, Yen Chun
余曉玟
Yu, Hsiao Wen
關鍵詞 軟體專案管理
承諾升級
沉沒成本效應
趨避理論
專案進度
software project management
escalation of commitment
sunk cost effect
approach-avoidance theory
project completion
日期 2016
上傳時間 22-Aug-2016 10:46:12 (UTC+8)
摘要 承諾升級（Escalation of Commitment）現象是指當決策者面臨一連串的失敗發生且狀況陷入困境時，仍有較高的意願選擇持續這項未完成的事件，此現象在軟體專案執行或軟體開發過程中亦時常發生。其狀態通常面臨困難，但決策者可能因各種因素考量而堅持讓該專案持續進行。本研究以沉沒成本效應與趨避理論中的專案進度的觀點，探討此兩項普遍軟體專案執行狀態對承諾升級決策的影響。研究結果發現，投入成本越多，承諾升級現象發生的可能性越大；專案進度越快，承諾升級現象也越可能發生，但在該專案兩項因素同時考慮的狀態下，專案進度雖然仍會使承諾升級現象發生，但相對地，成本投入越多，決策者繼續該專案的意願卻越低。由此本研究可以推論，在專案發生困難時，若著重於考慮沉沒成本或專案進度單一因素，都可以解釋承諾升級的現象，但若兩者同時考量時，決策者會將沉沒成本與專案進度相互比較，根據該專案未來成功的價值是否大於未來成本投入，來決定是否該繼續此專案。
Escalation of Commitment is a phenomenon that when a project has been in a serious condition, the decision makers still want to continue the project. This phenomenon can be found in MIS projects and software development projects. The purpose of this research is to investigate why escalation of commitment occurs from the sunk cost and project progress perspectives.
In this study, we designed and conducted a simulated experiment that includes three different levels of sunk costs and three levels of project completion to ask subjects’ intention to continue the project. We find that the intention to continue the project gets higher, when the sunk cost or project completion is higher. However, the interaction effect exists when both factors are put into consideration. In this condition, the decision maker may judge the benefit of completion as compared with the additional cost that needs to be invested.
Our results indicated that both of sunk cost and progress of project can be used to interpret the decision behavior of commitment escalation. When both factors exist, the mismatch between cost and project completion may be the main factor. The escalation of commitment is more motivated by the degree of completion than the sunk cost.
參考文獻 Bartlett, M. S. (1951). An inverse matrix adjustment arising in discriminant analysis. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 22(1), 107-111.
Bazerman, M. H., Schoorman, F. D., & Goodman, P. S. (1980). A cognitive evaluation of escalation processes in managerial decision making. Unpublished manuscript, Boston University.
Brockner, J. (1992). The escalation of commitment to a failing course of action: Toward theoretical progress. Academy of management Review, 17(1), 39-61.
Bush, G., Luu, P., & Posner, M. I. (2000). Cognitive and emotional influences in anterior cingulate cortex. Trends in cognitive sciences, 4(6), 215-222.
Camerer, C. F. (2003). Strategizing in the brain. Science, 300(5626), 1673.
Conlon, D. E., & Garland, H. (1993). The role of project completion information in resource allocation decisions. Academy of Management Journal, 36(2), 402-413.
Delgado, M. R., Miller, M. M., Inati, S., & Phelps, E. A. (2005). An fMRI study of reward-related probability learning. Neuroimage, 24(3), 862-873.
Desai, M. S., & Chulkov, D. V. (2011). Escalation of commitment in MIS projects: A meta-analysis. International Journal of Management & Information Systems (IJMIS), 13(2), 29-38.
Dimoka, A. (2010). What does the brain tell us about trust and distrust? Evidence from a functional neuroimaging study. Mis Quarterly, 373-396.
Epstein, S. (1994). Integration of the cognitive and the psychodynamic unconscious. American psychologist, 49(8), 709.
Garland, H., & Conlon, D. E. (1998). Too close to quit: The role of project completion in maintaining commitment1. Journal of Applied Social Psychology,28(22), 2025-2048.
Hackman, J. R., & Oldham, G. R. (1980). Work redesign.
Haruno, M., Kuroda, T., Doya, K., Toyama, K., Kimura, M., Samejima, K., ... & Kawato, M. (2004). A neural correlate of reward-based behavioral learning in caudate nucleus: a functional magnetic resonance imaging study of a stochastic decision task. The Journal of Neuroscience, 24(7), 1660-1665.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 263-291.
Kaiser, H. F. (1970). A second generation little jiffy. Psychometrika, 35(4), 401-415.
Karevold, K. I., & Teigen, K. H. (2010). Progress framing and sunk costs: How managers’ statements about project progress reveal their investment intentions. Journal of Economic Psychology, 31(4), 719-731.
Keil, M., & Flatto, J. (1999). Information systems project escalation: A reinterpretation based on options theory. Accounting, Management and Information Technologies, 9(2), 115-139.
Keil, M., Mann, J., & Rai, A. (2000). Why software projects escalate: An empirical analysis and test of four theoretical models. Mis Quarterly, 631-664.
Keil, M., Tan, B. C., Wei, K. K., Saarinen, T., Tuunainen, V., & Wassenaar, A. (2000). A cross-cultural study on escalation of commitment behavior in software projects. MIS quarterly, 299-325.
Knutson, B., Adams, C. M., Fong, G. W., & Hommer, D. (2001). Anticipation of increasing monetary reward selectively recruits nucleus accumbens. J Neurosci, 21(16), RC159.
Knutson, B., Westdorp, A., Kaiser, E., & Hommer, D. (2000). FMRI visualization of brain activity during a monetary incentive delay task. Neuroimage, 12(1), 20-27.
Krain, A. L., Wilson, A. M., Arbuckle, R., Castellanos, F. X., & Milham, M. P. (2006). Distinct neural mechanisms of risk and ambiguity: a meta-analysis of decision-making. Neuroimage, 32(1), 477-484.
LeDoux, J. (2003). Emotion circuits in the brain.
Lewin, K. (1935). A dynamic theory of personality: Selected papers (DK Adams & KE Zener, Trans.). New York: McGraw.
Mann, J. (2003, August). ‘Preventing Runaway IT Projects: Protecting Auditors from Entrapment. In The Proceedings of Americas Conference on Information Systems (pp. 4-5).
Pan, G., Pan, S. L., & Newman, M. (2009). Managing information technology project escalation and de-escalation: An approach-avoidance perspective.Engineering Management, IEEE Transactions on, 56(1), 76-94.
Paulus, M. P., Rogalsky, C., Simmons, A., Feinstein, J. S., & Stein, M. B. (2003). Increased activation in the right insula during risk-taking decision making is related to harm avoidance and neuroticism. Neuroimage, 19(4), 1439-1448.
Phan, K. Luan, et al. "Functional neuroanatomy of emotion: a meta-analysis of emotion activation studies in PET and fMRI." Neuroimage 16.2 (2002): 331-348.
Riedl, R., Hubert, M., & Kenning, P. (2010). Are there neural gender differences in online trust? An fMRI study on the perceived trustworthiness of eBay offers.Mis Quarterly, 34(2), 397-428.
Schmidt, J. B., & Calantone, R. J. (2002). Escalation of commitment during new product development. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science,30(2), 103-118.
Smith, E. R., & DeCoster, J. (2000). Dual-process models in social and cognitive psychology: Conceptual integration and links to underlying memory systems. Personality and social psychology review, 4(2), 108-131.
Staw, B. M. (1976). Knee-deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action. Organizational behavior and human performance, 16(1), 27-44.
Staw, B. M. (1976). Knee-deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action. Organizational behavior and human performance, 16(1), 27-44.
Staw, B. M., & Ross, J. (1987). Behavior in escalation situations: Antecedents, prototypes, and solutions. Research in organizational behavior.
Tiwana, A., Keil, M., & Fichman, R. G. (2006). Information systems project continuation in escalation situations: A real options model. Decision Sciences,37(3), 357-391.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological review, 90(4), 293.
VOM Brocke, J., & Liang, T. P. (2014). Guidelines for neuroscience studies in information systems research. Journal of Management Information Systems,30(4), 211-234.
楊美玲, 鄭國枝, & 倪豐裕. (2009). 風險知覺與沉沒成本效應關聯之研究. 管理與系統, 16(4), 487-504.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理學系
103356014
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1033560141
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 梁定澎<br>周彥君zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Liang, Ting Peng<br>Chou, Yen Chunen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 余曉玟zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yu, Hsiao Wenen_US
dc.creator (作者) 余曉玟zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Yu, Hsiao Wenen_US
dc.date (日期) 2016en_US
dc.date.accessioned 22-Aug-2016 10:46:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 22-Aug-2016 10:46:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 22-Aug-2016 10:46:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1033560141en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100465-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 資訊管理學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 103356014zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 承諾升級（Escalation of Commitment）現象是指當決策者面臨一連串的失敗發生且狀況陷入困境時，仍有較高的意願選擇持續這項未完成的事件，此現象在軟體專案執行或軟體開發過程中亦時常發生。其狀態通常面臨困難，但決策者可能因各種因素考量而堅持讓該專案持續進行。本研究以沉沒成本效應與趨避理論中的專案進度的觀點，探討此兩項普遍軟體專案執行狀態對承諾升級決策的影響。研究結果發現，投入成本越多，承諾升級現象發生的可能性越大；專案進度越快，承諾升級現象也越可能發生，但在該專案兩項因素同時考慮的狀態下，專案進度雖然仍會使承諾升級現象發生，但相對地，成本投入越多，決策者繼續該專案的意願卻越低。由此本研究可以推論，在專案發生困難時，若著重於考慮沉沒成本或專案進度單一因素，都可以解釋承諾升級的現象，但若兩者同時考量時，決策者會將沉沒成本與專案進度相互比較，根據該專案未來成功的價值是否大於未來成本投入，來決定是否該繼續此專案。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Escalation of Commitment is a phenomenon that when a project has been in a serious condition, the decision makers still want to continue the project. This phenomenon can be found in MIS projects and software development projects. The purpose of this research is to investigate why escalation of commitment occurs from the sunk cost and project progress perspectives.
In this study, we designed and conducted a simulated experiment that includes three different levels of sunk costs and three levels of project completion to ask subjects’ intention to continue the project. We find that the intention to continue the project gets higher, when the sunk cost or project completion is higher. However, the interaction effect exists when both factors are put into consideration. In this condition, the decision maker may judge the benefit of completion as compared with the additional cost that needs to be invested.
Our results indicated that both of sunk cost and progress of project can be used to interpret the decision behavior of commitment escalation. When both factors exist, the mismatch between cost and project completion may be the main factor. The escalation of commitment is more motivated by the degree of completion than the sunk cost.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究流程 2
第二章 文獻探討 4
第一節 承諾升級 4
第二節 沉沒成本與沉沒成本效應 7
第三節 趨避理論 10
第四節 沉沒成本與專案進度 12
第五節 自我責任 13
第三章 研究架構與方法 15
第一節 研究架構 15
第二節 研究假說 16
第三節 變數操作性定義 17
第四節 實驗設計 18
第五節 前測 27
第四章 研究分析結果 37
第一節 敘述性統計資料 37
第二節 統計模型分析與假說驗證 43
第五章 結論 52
第一節 研究結果 52
第二節 研究貢獻 55
第三節 研究限制 55
第四節 未來規劃與研究方向 57
參考資料 59
附錄 問卷內容		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 4272627 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1033560141en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 軟體專案管理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 承諾升級zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 沉沒成本效應zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 趨避理論zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 專案進度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) software project managementen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) escalation of commitmenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) sunk cost effecten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) approach-avoidance theoryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) project completionen_US
dc.title (題名) 軟體專案承諾升級─沉沒成本與趨避理論的觀點zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Escalation of Commitment in Software Projects: The Sunk Cost Effect and Approach-Avoidance Theory Perspectivesen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bartlett, M. S. (1951). An inverse matrix adjustment arising in discriminant analysis. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 22(1), 107-111.
Bazerman, M. H., Schoorman, F. D., & Goodman, P. S. (1980). A cognitive evaluation of escalation processes in managerial decision making. Unpublished manuscript, Boston University.
Brockner, J. (1992). The escalation of commitment to a failing course of action: Toward theoretical progress. Academy of management Review, 17(1), 39-61.
Bush, G., Luu, P., & Posner, M. I. (2000). Cognitive and emotional influences in anterior cingulate cortex. Trends in cognitive sciences, 4(6), 215-222.
Camerer, C. F. (2003). Strategizing in the brain. Science, 300(5626), 1673.
Conlon, D. E., & Garland, H. (1993). The role of project completion information in resource allocation decisions. Academy of Management Journal, 36(2), 402-413.
Delgado, M. R., Miller, M. M., Inati, S., & Phelps, E. A. (2005). An fMRI study of reward-related probability learning. Neuroimage, 24(3), 862-873.
Desai, M. S., & Chulkov, D. V. (2011). Escalation of commitment in MIS projects: A meta-analysis. International Journal of Management & Information Systems (IJMIS), 13(2), 29-38.
Dimoka, A. (2010). What does the brain tell us about trust and distrust? Evidence from a functional neuroimaging study. Mis Quarterly, 373-396.
Epstein, S. (1994). Integration of the cognitive and the psychodynamic unconscious. American psychologist, 49(8), 709.
Garland, H., & Conlon, D. E. (1998). Too close to quit: The role of project completion in maintaining commitment1. Journal of Applied Social Psychology,28(22), 2025-2048.
Hackman, J. R., & Oldham, G. R. (1980). Work redesign.
Haruno, M., Kuroda, T., Doya, K., Toyama, K., Kimura, M., Samejima, K., ... & Kawato, M. (2004). A neural correlate of reward-based behavioral learning in caudate nucleus: a functional magnetic resonance imaging study of a stochastic decision task. The Journal of Neuroscience, 24(7), 1660-1665.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 263-291.
Kaiser, H. F. (1970). A second generation little jiffy. Psychometrika, 35(4), 401-415.
Karevold, K. I., & Teigen, K. H. (2010). Progress framing and sunk costs: How managers’ statements about project progress reveal their investment intentions. Journal of Economic Psychology, 31(4), 719-731.
Keil, M., & Flatto, J. (1999). Information systems project escalation: A reinterpretation based on options theory. Accounting, Management and Information Technologies, 9(2), 115-139.
Keil, M., Mann, J., & Rai, A. (2000). Why software projects escalate: An empirical analysis and test of four theoretical models. Mis Quarterly, 631-664.
Keil, M., Tan, B. C., Wei, K. K., Saarinen, T., Tuunainen, V., & Wassenaar, A. (2000). A cross-cultural study on escalation of commitment behavior in software projects. MIS quarterly, 299-325.
Knutson, B., Adams, C. M., Fong, G. W., & Hommer, D. (2001). Anticipation of increasing monetary reward selectively recruits nucleus accumbens. J Neurosci, 21(16), RC159.
Knutson, B., Westdorp, A., Kaiser, E., & Hommer, D. (2000). FMRI visualization of brain activity during a monetary incentive delay task. Neuroimage, 12(1), 20-27.
Krain, A. L., Wilson, A. M., Arbuckle, R., Castellanos, F. X., & Milham, M. P. (2006). Distinct neural mechanisms of risk and ambiguity: a meta-analysis of decision-making. Neuroimage, 32(1), 477-484.
LeDoux, J. (2003). Emotion circuits in the brain.
Lewin, K. (1935). A dynamic theory of personality: Selected papers (DK Adams & KE Zener, Trans.). New York: McGraw.
Mann, J. (2003, August). ‘Preventing Runaway IT Projects: Protecting Auditors from Entrapment. In The Proceedings of Americas Conference on Information Systems (pp. 4-5).
Pan, G., Pan, S. L., & Newman, M. (2009). Managing information technology project escalation and de-escalation: An approach-avoidance perspective.Engineering Management, IEEE Transactions on, 56(1), 76-94.
Paulus, M. P., Rogalsky, C., Simmons, A., Feinstein, J. S., & Stein, M. B. (2003). Increased activation in the right insula during risk-taking decision making is related to harm avoidance and neuroticism. Neuroimage, 19(4), 1439-1448.
Phan, K. Luan, et al. "Functional neuroanatomy of emotion: a meta-analysis of emotion activation studies in PET and fMRI." Neuroimage 16.2 (2002): 331-348.
Riedl, R., Hubert, M., & Kenning, P. (2010). Are there neural gender differences in online trust? An fMRI study on the perceived trustworthiness of eBay offers.Mis Quarterly, 34(2), 397-428.
Schmidt, J. B., & Calantone, R. J. (2002). Escalation of commitment during new product development. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science,30(2), 103-118.
Smith, E. R., & DeCoster, J. (2000). Dual-process models in social and cognitive psychology: Conceptual integration and links to underlying memory systems. Personality and social psychology review, 4(2), 108-131.
Staw, B. M. (1976). Knee-deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action. Organizational behavior and human performance, 16(1), 27-44.
Staw, B. M. (1976). Knee-deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action. Organizational behavior and human performance, 16(1), 27-44.
Staw, B. M., & Ross, J. (1987). Behavior in escalation situations: Antecedents, prototypes, and solutions. Research in organizational behavior.
Tiwana, A., Keil, M., & Fichman, R. G. (2006). Information systems project continuation in escalation situations: A real options model. Decision Sciences,37(3), 357-391.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological review, 90(4), 293.
VOM Brocke, J., & Liang, T. P. (2014). Guidelines for neuroscience studies in information systems research. Journal of Management Information Systems,30(4), 211-234.
楊美玲, 鄭國枝, & 倪豐裕. (2009). 風險知覺與沉沒成本效應關聯之研究. 管理與系統, 16(4), 487-504.		zh_TW