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題名 隨收隨付制年金與勞動內生化：疊代經濟的分析
Pay-as-you-go Pension and Endogenous Labor Supply in an Overlapping Generations Economy作者 黃宇諒
Huang, Yu liang貢獻者 賴景昌
Lai, Ching Chong
黃宇諒
Huang, Yu liang關鍵詞 隨收隨付年金
疊代模型
勞動外生化
勞動內生化
不確定性
Pay-as-you-go pension
overlapping-generations model
exogenous labor supply
endogenous labor supply
indeterminacy日期 2016 上傳時間 22-Aug-2016 13:15:46 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文擬修改Heijdra (2009)的模型假設，並參考Ihori (1996)與金志婷 (2011)的處理方式，建立一個以線性所得稅融通之隨收隨付年金的疊代模型。在考慮勞動外生化以及勞動內生化兩種情況下，分別探討所得稅率變動以及人口成長率變動將會如何影響經濟體系的總體均衡，並得到以下結果：一、勞動外生化模型中，政府提高隨收隨付年金的所得稅率將會影響民眾的儲蓄行為而不利於每人資本的累積。二、不同於Heijdra (2009)勞動供給量為常數的結果，本文的勞動內生模型將涉及勞動的差分方程式。同時，在總體均衡下此經濟體系會存在多重均衡，而發生均衡的不確定性，當政府提高所得稅率，將會造成長期均衡的勞動量和資本勞動比都同時降低。三、不論勞動外生或是勞動內生模型，人口成長率降低皆有助於每人資本及資本勞動比的增加。
Based on the Ihori (1996) analysis, this thesis makes a revision from Heijdra (2009), and develops a simple two-period overlapping-generations model with a Pay-as-you-go pension and linear income taxation. This thesis then analyzes the dynamic properties of the model and how the change in the income tax rate and the population growth rate affect the household’s optimizing behavior and the economy’s capital accumulation. The analysis includes both the exogenous labor supply case and the endogenous labor supply case. Several main findings emerge from the analysis. First, in the presence of exogenous labor supply, a rise in the income tax rate leads to a negative impact on private savings and decreases physical capital per capita. Second, in the presence of endogenous labor supply, running in contrast to Heijdra (2009), labor supply would not be a constant but relates to its amount in the next period. As a result, coupled with the difference equation in capital-labor ratio, the simultaneous difference equations in both labor supply and capital-labor ratio are present in the overlapping-generations model. By imposing some plausible conditions, it is found that the overlapping generations economy exhibits local indeterminacy and a rise in the income tax rate would reduce both the capital-labor ratio and labor supply in the long run. Third, a reduction in the population growth rate would stimulate both physical capital per capita and the capital-labor ratio, regardless of whether labor supply is exogenous or endogenous.參考文獻 行政院主計處國情統計通報資料 (2015)，「103年國人平均壽命79.8歲，104年11月老化指數達91.6」，URL: http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/public/Data /5123016245198HDYFK.pdf。行政院勞動部勞工保險局全球資訊網 (2016)，「國民年金簡介」，URL: http://www.bli.gov.tw/sub.aspx?a=DUbMXxAoFv4%3d。金志婷 (2011)，「隨收隨付與完全提存的國民退休年金：不同財政政策指標之比較」，《經濟論文叢刊》，第39卷，第2期，頁213-241。賴景昌 (2011)，《總體經濟學》，第十九章。台北：雙葉。Altig, D. and Gokhale, J., (1997), Social security privatization: A simple proposal, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper 9703, 36.Azariadis, C., (1993), Intertemporal Macroeconomics, Ch. 5 Oxford: Blackwell. Belan, P., Michel, P. and Pestieau, P., (1998), Pareto-improving social security reform, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory 23, 119-125.Belan, P. and Pestieau, P., (1999), Privatizing social security: A critical assessment, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Issues and Practice 24, 114-130.Blanchard, O. J., (1985), Debt, deficits and finite horizons, Journal of Political Economy 93, 223-247.Breyer, F. and Straub, M., (1993), Welfare effects of unfunded pension systems when labor supply is endogenous, Journal of Public Economics 50, 77-91.Buiter, W. H., (1988), Death, productivity growth and debt neutrality, Economic Journal 98, 279-293.Diamond, P. A., (1965), National debt in a neoclassical growth model, American Economic Review 55, 1126-1150.Feldstein, M. S. and Samwick, A. A., (1998), The transition path in privatizing social security, in M. S. Feldstein (ed.), Privatizing Social Security, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Gandolfo, G., (1980), Economic Dynamics: Methods and Models, Ch. 2 and Ch. 8. Amsteradam: North-Holland.Heijdra, B. J., (2009), Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics, Ch. 17. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Ihori, T., (1996), Public Finance in an Overlapping Generations Economy, Ch. 3 and Ch. 10. London: Macmillan Press.Jha, S. K., Wang, P. and Yip, C. K., (2002), Dynamics in a transactions-based monetary growth model, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 26, 611-635.Kotlikoff, L. J., (1996), Privatizing social security: How it works and why it matters, in J. M. Poterba (ed.), Tax Policy and the Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Pollard, P. S. and Pecchenino, R. A., (1997), The transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully-funded social security system: Is there a role for social insurance, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers 97, 22.Samuelson, P. A., (1958), An exact consumption-loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money, Journal of Political Economy 66, 467-482.Sheshinski, E. and Weiss, Y., (1981), Uncertainty and optimal social security system, Quarterly Journal of Economics 96, 189-206.Valde´z-Prieto, S., (1997), Financing a pension reform towards private funded pensions, in S. Valde´z-Prieto (ed.), The Economics of Pensions. Principles, Policies and International Experiences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Weil, P., (1989), Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents, Journal of Public Economics 38, 183-198.Yaari, M. E., (1965), Uncertain lifetime, life insurance, and the theory of the consumer, Review of Economic Studies 32, 137-150. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
103258029資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103258029 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 賴景昌 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lai, Ching Chong en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃宇諒 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Huang, Yu liang en_US dc.creator (作者) 黃宇諒 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Huang, Yu liang en_US dc.date (日期) 2016 en_US dc.date.accessioned 22-Aug-2016 13:15:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 22-Aug-2016 13:15:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 22-Aug-2016 13:15:46 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0103258029 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100529 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 103258029 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文擬修改Heijdra (2009)的模型假設，並參考Ihori (1996)與金志婷 (2011)的處理方式，建立一個以線性所得稅融通之隨收隨付年金的疊代模型。在考慮勞動外生化以及勞動內生化兩種情況下，分別探討所得稅率變動以及人口成長率變動將會如何影響經濟體系的總體均衡，並得到以下結果：一、勞動外生化模型中，政府提高隨收隨付年金的所得稅率將會影響民眾的儲蓄行為而不利於每人資本的累積。二、不同於Heijdra (2009)勞動供給量為常數的結果，本文的勞動內生模型將涉及勞動的差分方程式。同時，在總體均衡下此經濟體系會存在多重均衡，而發生均衡的不確定性，當政府提高所得稅率，將會造成長期均衡的勞動量和資本勞動比都同時降低。三、不論勞動外生或是勞動內生模型，人口成長率降低皆有助於每人資本及資本勞動比的增加。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Based on the Ihori (1996) analysis, this thesis makes a revision from Heijdra (2009), and develops a simple two-period overlapping-generations model with a Pay-as-you-go pension and linear income taxation. This thesis then analyzes the dynamic properties of the model and how the change in the income tax rate and the population growth rate affect the household’s optimizing behavior and the economy’s capital accumulation. The analysis includes both the exogenous labor supply case and the endogenous labor supply case. Several main findings emerge from the analysis. First, in the presence of exogenous labor supply, a rise in the income tax rate leads to a negative impact on private savings and decreases physical capital per capita. Second, in the presence of endogenous labor supply, running in contrast to Heijdra (2009), labor supply would not be a constant but relates to its amount in the next period. As a result, coupled with the difference equation in capital-labor ratio, the simultaneous difference equations in both labor supply and capital-labor ratio are present in the overlapping-generations model. By imposing some plausible conditions, it is found that the overlapping generations economy exhibits local indeterminacy and a rise in the income tax rate would reduce both the capital-labor ratio and labor supply in the long run. Third, a reduction in the population growth rate would stimulate both physical capital per capita and the capital-labor ratio, regardless of whether labor supply is exogenous or endogenous. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機 1第二節 文獻回顧 2第三節 本文架構 5第二章 勞動外生化的理論模型 6第一節 模型架構 6第二節 總體均衡 11第三節 所得稅率變動的比較靜態分析 14第四節 人口成長率變動的比較靜態分析 15第三章 勞動內生化的理論模型 19第一節 模型架構 19第二節 總體均衡 24第三節 所得稅率變動的比較靜態分析 29第四節 人口成長率變動的比較靜態分析 33第四章 結論與延伸 40附錄A 42附錄B 44附錄C 46參考文獻 48 zh_TW dc.format.extent 637446 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103258029 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 隨收隨付年金 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 疊代模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 勞動外生化 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 勞動內生化 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 不確定性 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Pay-as-you-go pension en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) overlapping-generations model en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) exogenous labor supply en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) endogenous labor supply en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) indeterminacy en_US dc.title (題名) 隨收隨付制年金與勞動內生化：疊代經濟的分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Pay-as-you-go Pension and Endogenous Labor Supply in an Overlapping Generations Economy en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 行政院主計處國情統計通報資料 (2015)，「103年國人平均壽命79.8歲，104年11月老化指數達91.6」，URL: http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/public/Data /5123016245198HDYFK.pdf。行政院勞動部勞工保險局全球資訊網 (2016)，「國民年金簡介」，URL: http://www.bli.gov.tw/sub.aspx?a=DUbMXxAoFv4%3d。金志婷 (2011)，「隨收隨付與完全提存的國民退休年金：不同財政政策指標之比較」，《經濟論文叢刊》，第39卷，第2期，頁213-241。賴景昌 (2011)，《總體經濟學》，第十九章。台北：雙葉。Altig, D. and Gokhale, J., (1997), Social security privatization: A simple proposal, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper 9703, 36.Azariadis, C., (1993), Intertemporal Macroeconomics, Ch. 5 Oxford: Blackwell. Belan, P., Michel, P. and Pestieau, P., (1998), Pareto-improving social security reform, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory 23, 119-125.Belan, P. and Pestieau, P., (1999), Privatizing social security: A critical assessment, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Issues and Practice 24, 114-130.Blanchard, O. J., (1985), Debt, deficits and finite horizons, Journal of Political Economy 93, 223-247.Breyer, F. and Straub, M., (1993), Welfare effects of unfunded pension systems when labor supply is endogenous, Journal of Public Economics 50, 77-91.Buiter, W. H., (1988), Death, productivity growth and debt neutrality, Economic Journal 98, 279-293.Diamond, P. A., (1965), National debt in a neoclassical growth model, American Economic Review 55, 1126-1150.Feldstein, M. S. and Samwick, A. A., (1998), The transition path in privatizing social security, in M. S. Feldstein (ed.), Privatizing Social Security, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Gandolfo, G., (1980), Economic Dynamics: Methods and Models, Ch. 2 and Ch. 8. Amsteradam: North-Holland.Heijdra, B. J., (2009), Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics, Ch. 17. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Ihori, T., (1996), Public Finance in an Overlapping Generations Economy, Ch. 3 and Ch. 10. London: Macmillan Press.Jha, S. K., Wang, P. and Yip, C. K., (2002), Dynamics in a transactions-based monetary growth model, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 26, 611-635.Kotlikoff, L. J., (1996), Privatizing social security: How it works and why it matters, in J. M. Poterba (ed.), Tax Policy and the Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Pollard, P. S. and Pecchenino, R. A., (1997), The transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully-funded social security system: Is there a role for social insurance, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers 97, 22.Samuelson, P. A., (1958), An exact consumption-loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money, Journal of Political Economy 66, 467-482.Sheshinski, E. and Weiss, Y., (1981), Uncertainty and optimal social security system, Quarterly Journal of Economics 96, 189-206.Valde´z-Prieto, S., (1997), Financing a pension reform towards private funded pensions, in S. Valde´z-Prieto (ed.), The Economics of Pensions. Principles, Policies and International Experiences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Weil, P., (1989), Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents, Journal of Public Economics 38, 183-198.Yaari, M. E., (1965), Uncertain lifetime, life insurance, and the theory of the consumer, Review of Economic Studies 32, 137-150. zh_TW
