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題名 從德國的角度來看 中華民國（臺灣）21世紀的電力能源安全政策： 借鏡與戰略
A View on the 21st Century Electric Energy Security of the Republic of China (Taiwan) from the German Perspective: Implications and Strategies作者 樹安德
Julian, Andre Baum貢獻者 盧業中
Lu, Yeh Chung
樹安德
Julian, Andre Baum關鍵詞 台灣
德國
能源安全
電力
綠能
再生
Taiwan
Germany
Energy Security
Electricity Generation
Renewable Energy
Energy Transformation日期 2016 上傳時間 22-Aug-2016 13:30:13 (UTC+8) 摘要 21世紀初的中華民國（台灣）面對極大的能源安全挑戰。臺灣7成（*台灣電力公司）的電力來自化進口化石火力（煤炭：47%；天然氣：29%） 。此初級能源幾乎都通過容易被封鎖的海域運輸。中國大陸的崛起，北京在有戰略性的南海地區的軍事設施建設及在初級能源需求上的曾長另外艱難臺灣為電力系統提供足夠燃料資源的能力。 另外，基於化石燃料的容量有限，開發中國家的需求增長，能源進口對臺灣經濟的負擔將爲愈來愈大。官方的低碳政策以及民眾對核能的反感此外錯小台北的選擇範圍。 爲了避免此現象對於臺灣富裕及生存的威脅，臺北需要新的思考，從新的角度來建立有效率的政策規範。 本輪文希望可以從德國的做法提供此新思考方式。筆者認為，佔有能源轉變領導者地位的德國爲了臺灣未來的電力能源安全可以提供不少貢獻，指出台灣官方戰略的盲點。判斷路線的優劣以後，筆者會使用德國戰略的部分做法改善台灣之電力能源安全路線。 最終，筆者通過至2050年的場景分析比較原本計劃與新戰略的發展區別。 通過如此的過程，筆者希望可以提供改善台灣的電力能源安全發展的參考，並協助台灣保證未來的供電安全。
At the dawn of the 21st century, the power sector of the Republic of China (Taiwan) faces a serious threat to the security of its energy resources. About 70% of Taiwan’s electricity is produced from imported fossil fuels (coal: 47%, natural gas: 29%). Nearly all of these imports are shipping through unstable waters and regions. The rise of China, Beijing’s military build up in the strategically important South China Sea region as well as China’s thirst for more and more fossil fuels significantly limit Taiwan’s secure the resource flow for power generation purposes. In addition, fossil fuels are becoming more and more scarce as demand is rising in developing countries. The resulting increasing prices for energy resources put heavy pressure on Taiwan’s economy. Political commitments to decarbonize electricity generation, as well as strong public opposition against nuclear power further limit Taipei`s options. In order to counteract these threats to Taiwan’s prosperity and security, Taipei needs to find news ways of thinking, assume a new perspective to create an efficient political framework that encourages clean, local electricity sources. Likewise, energy efficiency and conversation have to be improved significantly. This dissertation hopes to provide some insights into how Taiwan could achieve these goals. In my eyes, a comparison with Germany, who’s radical renewable energy strategy has been hailed worldwide, is useful in identifying the blind spots in Taiwan’s approach. After determining the key flaws of the ROC`s official approach, I will apply parts of the German roadmap to enhance Taiwan`s chances to significantly lower the import dependency of the power sector.Finally, I will different scenario analyses for both Taiwan`s original strategy and the newly created framework, comparing the long term (until 2050) outcomes of the two approaches. Thoughout this process, I hope to point out alternatives to Taiwan’s current policy, and create an electric energy security roadmap that would significantly enhance the island’s ability to secure it’s electricity production for years to come.參考文獻 一: 中文部分（一）專書陳詩豪，「能源安全意涵與臺灣能源安全議題探討」，臺灣經濟研究院，課程說明書， 2013年.林師模，「臺灣能源安全評估」，臺灣經濟學會2008年年會，論文發表，2008年.（二）期刊文章賴美蓉·曹瑋玲, 「因應臺灣風機抗爭事件之課題與對策分析-以中部區域為例」，臺灣能源期刊，第2卷第1期（2015年），頁99-112。二: 英文以及德文部分（一）專書（含專書論文）Dent, Christopher M. Renewable Energy in East Asia: Towards a New Developmentalism. New York: Routledge, 2015.Dirmoser, Dietmar, “Energiesicherheit: neue Knappheiten, das Wiederaufleben des Ressourcennationalismus und die Aussichten für multilaterale Ansätze”（能源安全：新稀缺，資源民族主義的復興與多變理論的預料），in：Kompass 2020 –Deutschland in den internationalen Beziehungen (2020年指南-國際關係當中的德國), ed. Jochen Steinhilber, Berlin, (Berlin: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung（弗里德里希·艾伯特基金會）, 2007), http://www.fes.de/kompass2020/pdf/Energie.pdf.Darryl R. Biggar, The Economics of Electricity Markets (Chichester: Wiley, 2014).Kenderdine, Melanie A. and Moniz, Ernest J., “Technology Development and Energy Security,”in Energy and Security, edited by Jan H. Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn, 378- 421. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2013.Kalicki, Jan H. and Goldwyn, David L., “Introduction,”in Energy and Security, edited by Jan H. Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn, 1-19. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2013.Müller-Kraenner, Sascha. Energy Security. London: Earthscan, 2008. O’Sullivan, Meghan L., “The Entanglement of Energy, Grand Strategy, and International Security,” The Handbook of Global Energy Policy, edited by Andreas Goldthau, 30- 47. Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2013.Oystein Noreng, “Energy Security for Europe: A Choice of Suppliers and Partners,”in Political Economy of Energy in Europe, d. Gunnar Fermann (Berlin: Berliner Wissenschafts-Verlag, 2009)Sovacool, Benjamin and Sidortsov, Benjamin, “Energy Governance in the United States”, in The Handbook of Global Energy Policy, edited by Andreas Goldthau, 435-456. Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2013.Sovacool, Benjamin, ed. The Routledge Handbook of Energy Security, New York: Routledge, 2011.Sovacool, Benjamin K., “Global Trends in Renewable Electricity, Renewable Fuels, and Markets for Renewable Heating and Cooling,”in Hooman Peimani ed., The Challenge of Energy Security in the 21st Century (Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, 2011), pp. 8-38.（二）期刊文章Chan, David Yih-Liang et al., “Current situation of energy conservation in high energy-consuming industries in Taiwan,”Energy Policy 35 (2007): 202-209.Chang Ssu-li . “An Overview of Energy Policy and Usage in Taiwan,” Asia Program Special Report - Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 146 (2012).Chen, Wei-Ming et al. “Renewable Energy in eastern Asia: Renewable energy policy review and comparative SWOT analysis for promoting renewable energy in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan,”Energy Policy 74 (2014): 319-329.Chuang M.C. “An assessment of Taiwan`s energy policy using multidimensional energy security indicators,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 17 (2013).Deyer, Diana. “What energy security for the EU.” EU Energy Security Brief, European Union Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Brussels, November 8, 2013.Ferry, Tim. “Is Renewable Energy the Way Forward for Taiwan?, ” Taiwan Business Topics, September 15, 2015.Lin, Shih-Mo(林師模), “Energy Security in Taiwan and Asia” (paper presented at the 2013 Taiwan-US-Japan Trilateral Security Dialogue, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC, October 13, 2013).Yun-Hsun Huang/Jung-Hua Wu, “Energy Policy in Taiwan: Historical Developments, Current Status and Potential Improvements,” Energies 2 (2009): 623-645.（三）新聞資料“Iran seizes Marshall Islands Cargo Ship in Gulf Waters, Pentagon says”, The Guardian, April 29, 2015.“Crude Realities - The tumbling oil price piles more pressure on a sinking industry,” The Economist, January 24, 2015, accessed November 21, 2015, http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21640344-tumblingoil-price-piles-more-pressure-sinking-industry-crude-realities.“Europas größter Ökostrom-Akku ist am Netz,” （歐洲最大綠能電池已連接到電網）, NDR (北德轉播電台), accessed December 10,2015, http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/mecklenburgvorpommern/Europas- groesster-Oekostrom-Akku-ist-am-Netz,akku130.html.（四）官方文獻“Amtliche Erdgasdaten” (官方天然氣數據)，Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle – (德國聯邦經濟及出口管理局)，accessed November 21, 2015, http://www.bafa.de/bafa/de/energie/erdgas/ausgewaehlte_statistiken/index.html“Amtliche Mineralöldaten” (官方石油數據)， Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle – (德國聯邦經濟及出口管理局)，accessed November 21, 2015, http://www.bafa.de/bafa/de/energie/mineraloel_rohoel/amtliche_mineraloeldaten/index.html164“Energiewende” (能源轉型)，Bundesregierung (德國聯邦政府), Accessed December 10, 2015, http://www.bundesregierung.de/Content/DE/StatischeSeitenBreg/Energiekonzept/0-Buehne/ma%C3%9Fnahmen-imueberblick.html.“Europa – Vorteile für Deutschland”(歐洲-對於德國的優點),Bundesregierung (德國聯邦政府) Accessed November 21, 2015, www.bundesregierung.de/ContentArchiv/DE/Archiv17/Artikel/ 2012/10/2012-10-01-europa-vorteile-deutschland.htmlFraunhofer IBP (弗勞恩霍夫協會建築物理研究所), Fahrplan Energiewende (能源轉型路線圖), June 2012.International Energy Agency. “Secure and Efficient Energy Supply –During the Transition to Low Carbon Power Systems.”Accessed April 16, 2016. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/secureandefficientelectricitysupply.pdf.United Nations Statistics Division (UNSTATS), “Definition of Primary and Secondary Energy”, Presentation prepared for the 13th Meeting of the London Group, 29. September – 3 October 2008,http://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/londongroup/meeting13/LG13_12b.ppt [accessed November 12, 2015].165（五）網路資源（一）官方網站中華民國經濟部能源局 Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, ROC www.moeaboe.gov.tw/ 中華民國行政院 Executive Yuan, ROC http://www.ey.gov.tw/臺灣能源期刊 Journal of Taiwan Energy http://km.twenergy.org.tw/Publication/臺灣2050能源情境供需模擬器（Taiwan 2050 Calculator） http://my2050.twenergy.org.tw/德國聯邦經濟及能源部 Bundesministerium fuer Wirtschaft und Energie https://www.bmwi.de 德國聯邦環境保護局 http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/德國國家電網局 Bundesnetzagentur http://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/ 歐洲委員會 European Commission http://ec.europa.eu/美國能源部-臺灣能源狀況報告 EIA Taiwan Energy Data and Analysis http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=TWN 美國能源部-德國能源狀況報告 EIA Germany Energy Data and Analysis http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=DEU 德國Agora可再生能源及能源轉變智庫 Agora Energiewende http://www.agora-energiewende.de/de/ （六）民間機構網站德國能源轉型英文網站 http://energytransition.de/ 國家地理德國能源轉型網站 National Geographic - German Energy Transition ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2015/11/climate- change/germany-renewable-energy-revolution-text 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
103253026資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103253026 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 盧業中 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lu, Yeh Chung en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 樹安德 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Julian, Andre Baum en_US dc.creator (作者) 樹安德 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Julian, Andre Baum en_US dc.date (日期) 2016 en_US dc.date.accessioned 22-Aug-2016 13:30:13 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 22-Aug-2016 13:30:13 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 22-Aug-2016 13:30:13 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0103253026 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100545 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 外交學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 103253026 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 21世紀初的中華民國（台灣）面對極大的能源安全挑戰。臺灣7成（*台灣電力公司）的電力來自化進口化石火力（煤炭：47%；天然氣：29%） 。此初級能源幾乎都通過容易被封鎖的海域運輸。中國大陸的崛起，北京在有戰略性的南海地區的軍事設施建設及在初級能源需求上的曾長另外艱難臺灣為電力系統提供足夠燃料資源的能力。 另外，基於化石燃料的容量有限，開發中國家的需求增長，能源進口對臺灣經濟的負擔將爲愈來愈大。官方的低碳政策以及民眾對核能的反感此外錯小台北的選擇範圍。 爲了避免此現象對於臺灣富裕及生存的威脅，臺北需要新的思考，從新的角度來建立有效率的政策規範。 本輪文希望可以從德國的做法提供此新思考方式。筆者認為，佔有能源轉變領導者地位的德國爲了臺灣未來的電力能源安全可以提供不少貢獻，指出台灣官方戰略的盲點。判斷路線的優劣以後，筆者會使用德國戰略的部分做法改善台灣之電力能源安全路線。 最終，筆者通過至2050年的場景分析比較原本計劃與新戰略的發展區別。 通過如此的過程，筆者希望可以提供改善台灣的電力能源安全發展的參考，並協助台灣保證未來的供電安全。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) At the dawn of the 21st century, the power sector of the Republic of China (Taiwan) faces a serious threat to the security of its energy resources. About 70% of Taiwan’s electricity is produced from imported fossil fuels (coal: 47%, natural gas: 29%). Nearly all of these imports are shipping through unstable waters and regions. The rise of China, Beijing’s military build up in the strategically important South China Sea region as well as China’s thirst for more and more fossil fuels significantly limit Taiwan’s secure the resource flow for power generation purposes. In addition, fossil fuels are becoming more and more scarce as demand is rising in developing countries. The resulting increasing prices for energy resources put heavy pressure on Taiwan’s economy. Political commitments to decarbonize electricity generation, as well as strong public opposition against nuclear power further limit Taipei`s options. In order to counteract these threats to Taiwan’s prosperity and security, Taipei needs to find news ways of thinking, assume a new perspective to create an efficient political framework that encourages clean, local electricity sources. Likewise, energy efficiency and conversation have to be improved significantly. This dissertation hopes to provide some insights into how Taiwan could achieve these goals. In my eyes, a comparison with Germany, who’s radical renewable energy strategy has been hailed worldwide, is useful in identifying the blind spots in Taiwan’s approach. After determining the key flaws of the ROC`s official approach, I will apply parts of the German roadmap to enhance Taiwan`s chances to significantly lower the import dependency of the power sector.Finally, I will different scenario analyses for both Taiwan`s original strategy and the newly created framework, comparing the long term (until 2050) outcomes of the two approaches. Thoughout this process, I hope to point out alternatives to Taiwan’s current policy, and create an electric energy security roadmap that would significantly enhance the island’s ability to secure it’s electricity production for years to come. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一節，研究背景 1第二節，研究問題 4第三節，研究目的 11第四節，文獻檢閱 12第五節，研究方法 25第六節，論文架構27第二章，中華民國（台灣）的電力能源安全戰略與借鏡第一節，前言29第二節，中華民國（台灣） 能源安全文獻31第三節，2000年至目前的電力能源發展戰略36第四節，小結51第三章，德國的電力能源安全戰略與借鏡第一節，前言53第二節，戰略之核心 - 德國經濟及能源部的10點計劃54第三節，德國計劃的核心部分之仔細介紹55第四節，小結106第四章，德國戰略在台灣案例上的應用；新電力能源安全路線圖的建立第一節，前言 116第二節，借鏡比較與戰略合併116第三節，發展場景分析137第四節，小結156第五章，結論157第六章，參考文獻161 zh_TW dc.format.extent 11139320 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103253026 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 台灣 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 德國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 能源安全 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 電力 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 綠能 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 再生 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Taiwan en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Germany en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Energy Security en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Electricity Generation en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Renewable Energy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Energy Transformation en_US dc.title (題名) 從德國的角度來看 中華民國（臺灣）21世紀的電力能源安全政策： 借鏡與戰略 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A View on the 21st Century Electric Energy Security of the Republic of China (Taiwan) from the German Perspective: Implications and Strategies en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一: 中文部分（一）專書陳詩豪，「能源安全意涵與臺灣能源安全議題探討」，臺灣經濟研究院，課程說明書， 2013年.林師模，「臺灣能源安全評估」，臺灣經濟學會2008年年會，論文發表，2008年.（二）期刊文章賴美蓉·曹瑋玲, 「因應臺灣風機抗爭事件之課題與對策分析-以中部區域為例」，臺灣能源期刊，第2卷第1期（2015年），頁99-112。二: 英文以及德文部分（一）專書（含專書論文）Dent, Christopher M. Renewable Energy in East Asia: Towards a New Developmentalism. New York: Routledge, 2015.Dirmoser, Dietmar, “Energiesicherheit: neue Knappheiten, das Wiederaufleben des Ressourcennationalismus und die Aussichten für multilaterale Ansätze”（能源安全：新稀缺，資源民族主義的復興與多變理論的預料），in：Kompass 2020 –Deutschland in den internationalen Beziehungen (2020年指南-國際關係當中的德國), ed. Jochen Steinhilber, Berlin, (Berlin: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung（弗里德里希·艾伯特基金會）, 2007), http://www.fes.de/kompass2020/pdf/Energie.pdf.Darryl R. Biggar, The Economics of Electricity Markets (Chichester: Wiley, 2014).Kenderdine, Melanie A. and Moniz, Ernest J., “Technology Development and Energy Security,”in Energy and Security, edited by Jan H. Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn, 378- 421. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2013.Kalicki, Jan H. and Goldwyn, David L., “Introduction,”in Energy and Security, edited by Jan H. Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn, 1-19. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2013.Müller-Kraenner, Sascha. Energy Security. London: Earthscan, 2008. O’Sullivan, Meghan L., “The Entanglement of Energy, Grand Strategy, and International Security,” The Handbook of Global Energy Policy, edited by Andreas Goldthau, 30- 47. Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2013.Oystein Noreng, “Energy Security for Europe: A Choice of Suppliers and Partners,”in Political Economy of Energy in Europe, d. Gunnar Fermann (Berlin: Berliner Wissenschafts-Verlag, 2009)Sovacool, Benjamin and Sidortsov, Benjamin, “Energy Governance in the United States”, in The Handbook of Global Energy Policy, edited by Andreas Goldthau, 435-456. Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2013.Sovacool, Benjamin, ed. 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