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| Title | Simple Rules for Combining Forecasts: Some Empirical Results |
| Creator | 唐揆 Ringuest, J.;Tang, Kwei |
| Contributor | 企管系 |
| Date | 1987 |
| Date Issued | 24-Aug-2016 17:23:12 (UTC+8) |
| Summary | This study is an empirical comparison of three rules for aggregating forecasts. The three combined forecasts evaluated are: a simple average forecast, a median forecast and a focus forecast. These combined forecasts are compared over four economic variables (housing starts, the index of industrial production, the unemployment rate and gross national product) using a set of previously published forecasts. The results indicate that an average forecast will not perform as well as previous studies indicate if all or most of the individual forecasts tend to over- or under-predict simultaneously. The median forecast also seems to be suspect in this case. There is little evidence to suggest that the median forecast is a viable alternative to the mean forecast. Focus forecasting, however, is found to perform well for all four variables. The evidence indicates that focus forecasting is a reasonable alternative to simple averaging. |
| Relation | Socio Economic Planning Sciences, 21(4), 239-243 |
| Type | article |
| DOI | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0038-0121(87)90028-0 |
| dc.contributor | 企管系 | |
| dc.creator (作者) | 唐揆 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Ringuest, J.;Tang, Kwei | |
| dc.date (日期) | 1987 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 24-Aug-2016 17:23:12 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 24-Aug-2016 17:23:12 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 24-Aug-2016 17:23:12 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100712 | - |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | This study is an empirical comparison of three rules for aggregating forecasts. The three combined forecasts evaluated are: a simple average forecast, a median forecast and a focus forecast. These combined forecasts are compared over four economic variables (housing starts, the index of industrial production, the unemployment rate and gross national product) using a set of previously published forecasts. The results indicate that an average forecast will not perform as well as previous studies indicate if all or most of the individual forecasts tend to over- or under-predict simultaneously. The median forecast also seems to be suspect in this case. There is little evidence to suggest that the median forecast is a viable alternative to the mean forecast. Focus forecasting, however, is found to perform well for all four variables. The evidence indicates that focus forecasting is a reasonable alternative to simple averaging. | |
| dc.format.extent | 129 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | text/html | - |
| dc.relation (關聯) | Socio Economic Planning Sciences, 21(4), 239-243 | |
| dc.title (題名) | Simple Rules for Combining Forecasts: Some Empirical Results | |
| dc.type (資料類型) | article | |
| dc.identifier.doi (DOI) | 10.1016/0038-0121(87)90028-0 | |
| dc.doi.uri (DOI) | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0038-0121(87)90028-0 |