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題名 From Romantic Triangle to Marriage? Washington-Beijing-Taipei Relations in Historical Comparison 作者 Wu, Yu-Shan 關鍵詞 strategic triangle;cross-Strait relations;U.S. China policy;Bismarck;World War I 日期 2005-03 上傳時間 24-Oct-2016 15:24:59 (UTC+8) 摘要 This paper applies the ”strategic triangle” approach to the relations among Washington, Beijing, and Taipei in the post-Cold War period. The main argument is that the strategic triangle among the three has been gradually shifting from a ”romantic triangle” with the United States playing the role of an ”unwilling pivot,” to a ”marriage” between the United States and Taiwan-although whether that status can be sustained remains to be seen. The cause of this shift is mainly structural: an unwilling pivot tends to tilt toward the weaker of the two wings, particularly when the stronger wing is emerging as a threat. In making this argument, the paper draws a historical analogy with the Berlin-St. Petersburg-Vienna triangle between 1870 and 1914. In that triangle, the unwilling pivot, Germany, first adopted an impartial attitude toward Russia and Austria-Hungary. As the duel between St. Petersburg and Vienna intensified over the Balkans, however, Germany was forced to take sides and bind its fate with the Hapsburg Empire. A comparison of the two triangles-including their modes of entry, operation, and exit-reveals a strong tendency in the Washington-Beijing-Taipei triangle to evolve following the historical pattern of the pre-WWI Berlin-St Petersburg-Vienna triangle. Based on this comparison, we can conclude an unwilling pivot should find that the costs associated with pivot playing are likely too high, and entry into a partnership with one of the wings is deemed more favorable. It remains to be seen whether a formal marriage will come about between the United States and Taiwan, as it did between Germany and Austria-Hungary prior to WWI. 關聯 Issues & Studies,41(1),113-159 資料類型 article dc.creator (作者) Wu, Yu-Shan dc.date (日期) 2005-03 dc.date.accessioned 24-Oct-2016 15:24:59 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 24-Oct-2016 15:24:59 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 24-Oct-2016 15:24:59 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/103185 - dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper applies the ”strategic triangle” approach to the relations among Washington, Beijing, and Taipei in the post-Cold War period. The main argument is that the strategic triangle among the three has been gradually shifting from a ”romantic triangle” with the United States playing the role of an ”unwilling pivot,” to a ”marriage” between the United States and Taiwan-although whether that status can be sustained remains to be seen. The cause of this shift is mainly structural: an unwilling pivot tends to tilt toward the weaker of the two wings, particularly when the stronger wing is emerging as a threat. In making this argument, the paper draws a historical analogy with the Berlin-St. Petersburg-Vienna triangle between 1870 and 1914. In that triangle, the unwilling pivot, Germany, first adopted an impartial attitude toward Russia and Austria-Hungary. As the duel between St. Petersburg and Vienna intensified over the Balkans, however, Germany was forced to take sides and bind its fate with the Hapsburg Empire. A comparison of the two triangles-including their modes of entry, operation, and exit-reveals a strong tendency in the Washington-Beijing-Taipei triangle to evolve following the historical pattern of the pre-WWI Berlin-St Petersburg-Vienna triangle. Based on this comparison, we can conclude an unwilling pivot should find that the costs associated with pivot playing are likely too high, and entry into a partnership with one of the wings is deemed more favorable. It remains to be seen whether a formal marriage will come about between the United States and Taiwan, as it did between Germany and Austria-Hungary prior to WWI. dc.format.extent 2200151 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.relation (關聯) Issues & Studies,41(1),113-159 dc.subject (關鍵詞) strategic triangle;cross-Strait relations;U.S. China policy;Bismarck;World War I dc.title (題名) From Romantic Triangle to Marriage? Washington-Beijing-Taipei Relations in Historical Comparison dc.type (資料類型) article
