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題名 臺灣地區工業品進口型態之計量分析. (1976毠-1983炾) 作者 黃素敏 貢獻者 曹益榔
黃素敏日期 1984 上傳時間 10-Nov-2016 13:52:27 (UTC+8) 摘要 第一章 緒論1 第一節 研究動機與目的1 第二節 研究方法7 第三節 本文結構8 第二章 文獻探討11 第三章 模型的設立與實證研究29 第一節 模型的設立29 第二節 商品分類、觀察期間的選擇、資料來源及計算方法34 第三節 加工食品類37 第四節 飲料及菸草類41 第五節 紡織品類43 第六節 成衣及服飾品類46 第七節 皮革、皮毛及其製品類49 第八節 木竹籐製材及製品類52 第九節 造紙及印刷類55 第十節 基本化學原料類58 第十一節 化學製品類61 第十二節 橡膠及塑膠類64第十三節 非金屬礦物製品類67第十四節 基本金屬類70第十五節 金屬製品類73第十六節 機械類76第十七節 電機及電器類79第十八節 運輸器具類82第十九節 精密儀器設備類85第四章 估計結果的比較99第一節 不同函數型式估計結果的比較99第二節 與國外論者估計結果的比較105第三節 與國內論者估計結果的比較109第五章 結論113參考書目175中文部分175英文部分176表目錄表 1 - 1 歷年國民所得2 表 1 - 2 商品進口值佔國民生產毛額比例3 表 1 - 3 製造品進口值佔總進口值比例4 表 4 - 1 線型函數與對數函數估計結果的比較－加工食品100 表 4 - 2 線型與對數型式各檢定值大小的比較103 表 4 - 3 對數函數 t 值顯著水準的分佈104 表 4 - 4 線型函數 t 值顯著水準的分佈104 表 4 - 5 本文與國外估計結果範圍之比較107 表 4 - 6 本文與國內其他作者估計結果範圍之比較110表 5 - 1短期與長期估計值範圍的比較115表一 歷年實證模型之比較123表二 各類產品佔工業品進口值比例127表三 各類產品佔工業品出口值比例129表四 進口貨品分類金額131表五 出口貨品分類金額133表六 線型函數與對數函數估計結果比較135表七 Kreinin , Stone ,Khan與本文估計結果比較157表八 Kreinin , Khan 與本文估計結果的比較163表九 施文、陳文、與本文估計結果的比較 169 表十 許文與本文估計結果的比較171 表十一 短期與長期估計值的比較173 參考文獻 一、中文部分：1.李庸三：「經濟計量方法」（台北：自行出版，民國六十八年再版）。2.祁和福：「應用迴歸分析」，（台北：自行出版，民國六十七年初版）。3.余吉政；「台灣工業產品出口供需之實證分析」政大國貿所碩士論文，（民國七十一年元月）。4.施鷹艷：「台灣輸出入商品彈性的測量（1961~ 1974），政大國貿所碩士論文，（民國六十四年六月）。5.許日和：「台灣進出口貿易的所得與價格彈性」，經濟論文第一卷第一期，台北：中研院經研所，（民國六十二年三月) 。6.________「台灣按商品類別進出口貿易的所得與價格彈性」，經濟論文，第三卷第一期，台北：中研院經研所，（民國六十四年三月）。 7.陳文乾：「台灣對外交易部門的季模型估計1965I ~ 1975Ⅳ」，政大國貿所碩士論文，（民國六十六年六月）。二、英文部分：1. Ahluwalia I. J. and E. Hern`andez-Cat`a, "An Econometric Model of U. S. Merchandise Imports Under Fixed and Fluctuating Exchange Rates 1959-73 " I M F Stuff Paper 22 (NOv. 1975) pp.791-824.2. Ball R. J. and K. Mavwah " The U. S. Demand for Imports, 1948-1958 " The Review of Economics and Statistics 44 (Nov. 1962 ) pp. 395-401.3. Basevi G. "Commodity Trade Equations In Project LINK," in R. J. Ball (ed.) The International Linkage of National Economic Models (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company 1975) pp. 227-281.4. Deppler M. C. "Some Evidence on the Effects of Exchange Rate Change on Trade" I M F Stuff Paper 21 (Nov. 1974) pp. 605-636.5. Eckstein O. Economic Theory and Econometric Models "in Kmenta. J and J. B. Ramsey (ed.) Large-Scale Macro-Econometric Models (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company 1981) pp. 155-176.6. Goldstein M. and M. S. Khan, "Large Versus Small Price Change and the Demand for Imports" I M F Stuff Paper 23 (March 1976) pp. 200-225.7. Goldstein M., M. S. Khan and L. H. Officer, "Price of Tradable and Nontradable Goods in the Demand for Total Imports ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 62 (May 1980) pp. 190-199.8. Heien D. M. "Structural Stability and the Estimation of International Import Price Elasticities" Kyklos 21 Fase 4 (1968) pp. 695-711.9. Houthakker H. S. and S. P. Magee, "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade "The Review of Economics and Statistics 51 (May 1969) pp. 111-125.10. Khan M. S. "Import and Export Demand in Developing Countries "I M F Stuff Paper 21 (Nov. 1974.) PP. 678-693.11. _________ "The Structure and Behavior of Imports of Venezula ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 57 (May 1975) pp. 221-224.12. Khan M. S. and K. Z. Ross, "Cyclical and Secular Income Elasticities of the Demand for Imports ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 57 (Aug. 1975) pp. 357-361.13.________ "The Functional form of the Aggregate Import Demand Equation" Journal of International Economics 7 (May 1977) pp. 149-160.14. Kmenta J. and J. B. Ramsey, "Evaluation of Econometric Models" (Academic Press Inc.) 1980.15. Kreinin M. E. "Price Elasticities in International Trade ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 49 (May 1967) pp. 510-516.16.________ "Disaggregated Import Demand Functions--Futher Results" Southern Economic Journal 40 (July 1973) pp. 19-25.17. Kuh E. and R. L. Schmalensee, "An Introduction to Applied Macroeconomics" (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company) 1975.18. Kwack S. Y. " The Determination of U. S. Imports and Exports: A Disaggregated Quarterly Model, 1960 111-1967 1V ", Southern Economics Journal 38 (Jan. 1972) pp. 302-314.19. Leamer E. E., "Empirically Weighted Indexes for Import Demand Functions ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 55 (Nov. 1973) pp. 441-450.20. Leamer E. E. and R. M. Stern, "Quantitative International Economics" (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1970)21. Lee Pa-Chin, "Income and Price Elasticities of Taiwan Import Demand" Industry of Free China vol. 43 No. 2. (Feb, 1975) pp. 26-33.22. Murray T. and P. J. Ginman, " An Empirical Examination of the Traditional Aggregate Import Demand Modal ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 58 ( Feb. 1976 ) pp. 75-80.23. Mutti J., "The Specification of Demand Equations for Imports and Domestic Substitutes ", Southern Economics Journal 44 (July 1977) pp. 68-73.24. Orcutt G. H. " Measurement of Price Elasticities in International Trades " The Review of Economics and Statistics 32 (May 1950 )pp. 117-131.25. Pfaffenberger R. C. and J. H. Patterson, Statistical Methods-for Business and Economics, ( Richard D. Irwin, Inc. 1977)26. Rhomberg R. R. and L. Boissonneault, " Effects of Income and Price Changes on the U. S Balance of Payments " I M F Stuff Paper 11 ( March 1964 ) pp. 59-122.27. Stone J. A. Price Elasticities of Demand for Imports and Exports ---- Industry Estimates for the U. S., the E. E. C. and. Japan ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 61 ( May 1979 ) pp. 306-312.28. Taplin G. B., " A model of World Trade ", in R. J. Ball (ed.), The International Linkage of National Economics Models, (Amsterdam : North-Holland Publishing Company, 1975 ) pp. 177-223.29. Warner D. and M. E. Kreinin, Determinants of International Trade Flows "The Review of Economics and Statistics 65 (Jan. 1983) pp. 96-104.30. Wilson J. F. and W. E. Takacs, Differential Responses to Price and Exchange Rate Influences in the Foreign Trade of Selected Industrial Countries " The Review of Economics and Statistics 6, (May 1979 ) pp. 267-279. 關聯 國立政治大學
國際貿易研究所
碩士
72資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 曹益榔 dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃素敏 dc.creator (作者) 黃素敏 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 1984 dc.date.accessioned 10-Nov-2016 13:52:27 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 10-Nov-2016 13:52:27 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 10-Nov-2016 13:52:27 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/103743 - dc.description.abstract (摘要) 第一章 緒論1 第一節 研究動機與目的1 第二節 研究方法7 第三節 本文結構8 第二章 文獻探討11 第三章 模型的設立與實證研究29 第一節 模型的設立29 第二節 商品分類、觀察期間的選擇、資料來源及計算方法34 第三節 加工食品類37 第四節 飲料及菸草類41 第五節 紡織品類43 第六節 成衣及服飾品類46 第七節 皮革、皮毛及其製品類49 第八節 木竹籐製材及製品類52 第九節 造紙及印刷類55 第十節 基本化學原料類58 第十一節 化學製品類61 第十二節 橡膠及塑膠類64第十三節 非金屬礦物製品類67第十四節 基本金屬類70第十五節 金屬製品類73第十六節 機械類76第十七節 電機及電器類79第十八節 運輸器具類82第十九節 精密儀器設備類85第四章 估計結果的比較99第一節 不同函數型式估計結果的比較99第二節 與國外論者估計結果的比較105第三節 與國內論者估計結果的比較109第五章 結論113參考書目175中文部分175英文部分176表目錄表 1 - 1 歷年國民所得2 表 1 - 2 商品進口值佔國民生產毛額比例3 表 1 - 3 製造品進口值佔總進口值比例4 表 4 - 1 線型函數與對數函數估計結果的比較－加工食品100 表 4 - 2 線型與對數型式各檢定值大小的比較103 表 4 - 3 對數函數 t 值顯著水準的分佈104 表 4 - 4 線型函數 t 值顯著水準的分佈104 表 4 - 5 本文與國外估計結果範圍之比較107 表 4 - 6 本文與國內其他作者估計結果範圍之比較110表 5 - 1短期與長期估計值範圍的比較115表一 歷年實證模型之比較123表二 各類產品佔工業品進口值比例127表三 各類產品佔工業品出口值比例129表四 進口貨品分類金額131表五 出口貨品分類金額133表六 線型函數與對數函數估計結果比較135表七 Kreinin , Stone ,Khan與本文估計結果比較157表八 Kreinin , Khan 與本文估計結果的比較163表九 施文、陳文、與本文估計結果的比較 169 表十 許文與本文估計結果的比較171 表十一 短期與長期估計值的比較173 dc.format.extent 115 bytes - dc.format.mimetype text/html - dc.relation (關聯) 國立政治大學 dc.relation (關聯) 國際貿易研究所 dc.relation (關聯) 碩士 dc.relation (關聯) 72 dc.title (題名) 臺灣地區工業品進口型態之計量分析. (1976毠-1983炾) zh_TW dc.type (資料類型) thesis dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分：1.李庸三：「經濟計量方法」（台北：自行出版，民國六十八年再版）。2.祁和福：「應用迴歸分析」，（台北：自行出版，民國六十七年初版）。3.余吉政；「台灣工業產品出口供需之實證分析」政大國貿所碩士論文，（民國七十一年元月）。4.施鷹艷：「台灣輸出入商品彈性的測量（1961~ 1974），政大國貿所碩士論文，（民國六十四年六月）。5.許日和：「台灣進出口貿易的所得與價格彈性」，經濟論文第一卷第一期，台北：中研院經研所，（民國六十二年三月) 。6.________「台灣按商品類別進出口貿易的所得與價格彈性」，經濟論文，第三卷第一期，台北：中研院經研所，（民國六十四年三月）。 7.陳文乾：「台灣對外交易部門的季模型估計1965I ~ 1975Ⅳ」，政大國貿所碩士論文，（民國六十六年六月）。二、英文部分：1. Ahluwalia I. J. and E. Hern`andez-Cat`a, "An Econometric Model of U. S. Merchandise Imports Under Fixed and Fluctuating Exchange Rates 1959-73 " I M F Stuff Paper 22 (NOv. 1975) pp.791-824.2. Ball R. J. and K. Mavwah " The U. S. Demand for Imports, 1948-1958 " The Review of Economics and Statistics 44 (Nov. 1962 ) pp. 395-401.3. Basevi G. "Commodity Trade Equations In Project LINK," in R. J. Ball (ed.) The International Linkage of National Economic Models (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company 1975) pp. 227-281.4. Deppler M. C. "Some Evidence on the Effects of Exchange Rate Change on Trade" I M F Stuff Paper 21 (Nov. 1974) pp. 605-636.5. Eckstein O. Economic Theory and Econometric Models "in Kmenta. J and J. B. Ramsey (ed.) Large-Scale Macro-Econometric Models (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company 1981) pp. 155-176.6. Goldstein M. and M. S. Khan, "Large Versus Small Price Change and the Demand for Imports" I M F Stuff Paper 23 (March 1976) pp. 200-225.7. Goldstein M., M. S. Khan and L. H. Officer, "Price of Tradable and Nontradable Goods in the Demand for Total Imports ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 62 (May 1980) pp. 190-199.8. Heien D. M. "Structural Stability and the Estimation of International Import Price Elasticities" Kyklos 21 Fase 4 (1968) pp. 695-711.9. Houthakker H. S. and S. P. Magee, "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade "The Review of Economics and Statistics 51 (May 1969) pp. 111-125.10. Khan M. S. "Import and Export Demand in Developing Countries "I M F Stuff Paper 21 (Nov. 1974.) PP. 678-693.11. _________ "The Structure and Behavior of Imports of Venezula ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 57 (May 1975) pp. 221-224.12. Khan M. S. and K. Z. Ross, "Cyclical and Secular Income Elasticities of the Demand for Imports ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 57 (Aug. 1975) pp. 357-361.13.________ "The Functional form of the Aggregate Import Demand Equation" Journal of International Economics 7 (May 1977) pp. 149-160.14. Kmenta J. and J. B. Ramsey, "Evaluation of Econometric Models" (Academic Press Inc.) 1980.15. Kreinin M. E. "Price Elasticities in International Trade ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 49 (May 1967) pp. 510-516.16.________ "Disaggregated Import Demand Functions--Futher Results" Southern Economic Journal 40 (July 1973) pp. 19-25.17. Kuh E. and R. L. Schmalensee, "An Introduction to Applied Macroeconomics" (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company) 1975.18. Kwack S. Y. " The Determination of U. S. Imports and Exports: A Disaggregated Quarterly Model, 1960 111-1967 1V ", Southern Economics Journal 38 (Jan. 1972) pp. 302-314.19. Leamer E. E., "Empirically Weighted Indexes for Import Demand Functions ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 55 (Nov. 1973) pp. 441-450.20. Leamer E. E. and R. M. Stern, "Quantitative International Economics" (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1970)21. Lee Pa-Chin, "Income and Price Elasticities of Taiwan Import Demand" Industry of Free China vol. 43 No. 2. (Feb, 1975) pp. 26-33.22. Murray T. and P. J. Ginman, " An Empirical Examination of the Traditional Aggregate Import Demand Modal ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 58 ( Feb. 1976 ) pp. 75-80.23. Mutti J., "The Specification of Demand Equations for Imports and Domestic Substitutes ", Southern Economics Journal 44 (July 1977) pp. 68-73.24. Orcutt G. H. " Measurement of Price Elasticities in International Trades " The Review of Economics and Statistics 32 (May 1950 )pp. 117-131.25. Pfaffenberger R. C. and J. H. Patterson, Statistical Methods-for Business and Economics, ( Richard D. Irwin, Inc. 1977)26. Rhomberg R. R. and L. Boissonneault, " Effects of Income and Price Changes on the U. S Balance of Payments " I M F Stuff Paper 11 ( March 1964 ) pp. 59-122.27. Stone J. A. Price Elasticities of Demand for Imports and Exports ---- Industry Estimates for the U. S., the E. E. C. and. Japan ", The Review of Economics and Statistics 61 ( May 1979 ) pp. 306-312.28. Taplin G. B., " A model of World Trade ", in R. J. Ball (ed.), The International Linkage of National Economics Models, (Amsterdam : North-Holland Publishing Company, 1975 ) pp. 177-223.29. Warner D. and M. E. Kreinin, Determinants of International Trade Flows "The Review of Economics and Statistics 65 (Jan. 1983) pp. 96-104.30. Wilson J. F. and W. E. Takacs, Differential Responses to Price and Exchange Rate Influences in the Foreign Trade of Selected Industrial Countries " The Review of Economics and Statistics 6, (May 1979 ) pp. 267-279.
