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題名 赴日本旅遊的影響因素—Panel Data的分析方法
Determinants of inbound travel to Japan -- the Panel Data approach
作者 大滝麻莉
Mari, Otaki
貢獻者 羅光達
Lo, Vance Kuang-Ta
大滝麻莉
Otaki Mari
關鍵詞 觀光
入境旅遊
Panel Data分析法
日本
Tourism
Inbound tourism
Panel Data Analysis
Japan
日期 2017
上傳時間 3-Jul-2017 14:45:15 (UTC+8)
摘要 國際觀光對於許多國內經濟成長趨緩的已開發國家是重要財源之一，日本政府近年來開始積極推動入境旅遊，來刺激停滯經濟成長。此研究探討觀光趨勢與政府能夠推動可增加觀光客人數的觀光政策進而成為以觀光為發展導向的國家。
此報告採用Panel Data分析方法中的固定效應模式來評估觀光收入與觀光價格以及主要事件與相關政策對於國際觀光客的影響，研究對象以十一個亞洲國家到日本旅遊為例。此研究發現觀光需求易受到觀光客出發國家以及目的國家的旅遊價格影響。此研究發現需求的收入彈性係數為+3.041，需求的收價格彈性係數為-0.486，表示對國際觀光客而言，赴日旅遊是較昂貴的商品，觀光客的價格較不彈性。此外, 有關當局預估福島核災事件在2011年會減少觀光客人次至2,765,669，而2015年的外國觀光客免稅購物政策則導致國際觀光客入境人次2,115,519。此研究發現免簽證觀光的延長政策以及對日本的重大抗議對於國際觀光客入境日本並無顯著影響。
International tourism has become a significant source of economic growth for many developed countries that have encountered slowdowns in domestic economic productivity. The Japanese government has begun, in recent years, to promote inbound tourism in an effort to stimulate its own stagnant economic growth. This paper discusses tourism trends and policies the government could implement to increase the number of tourists and become the “tourism-oriented country” it aspires to be.
This paper adopts a Panel Data Analysis with Fixed Effects model to estimate the impact of tourist income and tourism price as well as major events and policy on international tourist arrivals to Japan from 11 Asian countries. The paper finds that tourism demand is sensitive to both origin country income and destination country price. Income elasticity of demand is found to be +3.041 and price elasticity of demand to be -0.486 implying travel to Japan is considered a luxury good and that visitors are price inelastic. Further, the Fukushima nuclear disaster is estimated to have reduced international arrivals by 2,765,669 in its aftermath in 2011 and the implementation of tax-free shopping for foreign visitors led is estimated to have increased international arrivals by 2,115,519 in 2015. The paper finds the expansion of visa exempt travel and major protests against Japan to have no significant impact on international arrivals.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
104926019
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1049260191
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 羅光達zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lo, Vance Kuang-Taen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 大滝麻莉zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Otaki Marien_US
dc.creator (作者) 大滝麻莉zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Mari, Otakien_US
dc.date (日期) 2017en_US
dc.date.accessioned 3-Jul-2017 14:45:15 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 3-Jul-2017 14:45:15 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Jul-2017 14:45:15 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1049260191en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/110713-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 104926019zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 國際觀光對於許多國內經濟成長趨緩的已開發國家是重要財源之一，日本政府近年來開始積極推動入境旅遊，來刺激停滯經濟成長。此研究探討觀光趨勢與政府能夠推動可增加觀光客人數的觀光政策進而成為以觀光為發展導向的國家。
此報告採用Panel Data分析方法中的固定效應模式來評估觀光收入與觀光價格以及主要事件與相關政策對於國際觀光客的影響，研究對象以十一個亞洲國家到日本旅遊為例。此研究發現觀光需求易受到觀光客出發國家以及目的國家的旅遊價格影響。此研究發現需求的收入彈性係數為+3.041，需求的收價格彈性係數為-0.486，表示對國際觀光客而言，赴日旅遊是較昂貴的商品，觀光客的價格較不彈性。此外, 有關當局預估福島核災事件在2011年會減少觀光客人次至2,765,669，而2015年的外國觀光客免稅購物政策則導致國際觀光客入境人次2,115,519。此研究發現免簽證觀光的延長政策以及對日本的重大抗議對於國際觀光客入境日本並無顯著影響。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) International tourism has become a significant source of economic growth for many developed countries that have encountered slowdowns in domestic economic productivity. The Japanese government has begun, in recent years, to promote inbound tourism in an effort to stimulate its own stagnant economic growth. This paper discusses tourism trends and policies the government could implement to increase the number of tourists and become the “tourism-oriented country” it aspires to be.
This paper adopts a Panel Data Analysis with Fixed Effects model to estimate the impact of tourist income and tourism price as well as major events and policy on international tourist arrivals to Japan from 11 Asian countries. The paper finds that tourism demand is sensitive to both origin country income and destination country price. Income elasticity of demand is found to be +3.041 and price elasticity of demand to be -0.486 implying travel to Japan is considered a luxury good and that visitors are price inelastic. Further, the Fukushima nuclear disaster is estimated to have reduced international arrivals by 2,765,669 in its aftermath in 2011 and the implementation of tax-free shopping for foreign visitors led is estimated to have increased international arrivals by 2,115,519 in 2015. The paper finds the expansion of visa exempt travel and major protests against Japan to have no significant impact on international arrivals.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1.1. Tourism as a Global Economic Engine 1
1.2. Tourism and Japan 4
1.3. Motivation for Research 5
1.4. The Importance of this Research 7
1.5. Research Purpose 8
Chapter 2: Literature Review 9
2.1. International Tourism to Japan 9
2.2. Significant Events and Larger Trends Affected Tourism to Japan 10
2.3. Economic Drivers of Tourism 13
2.4. How Individuals Make Tourism Decisions 16
Chapter 3: Recent Policies in Japan 18
3.1. Visa Relaxation and Simplification 18
3.2. Tax-Free shopping system 21
3.3. Attracting Muslim Tourists 22
3.4. Accessibility 22
Chapter 4: Empirical Model 24
4.1. Statistical Methodology for Estimation 24
4.2. Specification of the Model 29
4.3. Data Source and Variables Settings 32
Chapter 5: Empirical Results 40
5.1. Model Output 40
5.2. Income and Price Elasticity of Demand 44
5.3. Impact of Tax-Free Shopping Policy 45
5.4. Impact of Fukushima Disaster 47
5.5. Lack of Impact of Visa Exempt Policy and Protests of Japan 49
Chapter 6: Conclusion 53
6.1 Discussion of Findings 53
6.2 Policy Implications 54
References 56
Appendix 66		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1345203 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1049260191en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 觀光zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 入境旅遊zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel Data分析法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 日本zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tourismen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Inbound tourismen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel Data Analysisen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Japanen_US
dc.title (題名) 赴日本旅遊的影響因素—Panel Data的分析方法zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Determinants of inbound travel to Japan -- the Panel Data approachen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Agrusa, J., Kim, S.S., Wang, K-C. (2011). Mainland Chinese Tourists to Hawaii: Their Characteristics and Preferences. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 28(3), 261-278.
Alvarez-Diaz, M., Gonzalez-Gomez, M., Otero-Giraldez, M. (2012). Estimating International Tourism Demand to Spain Separately by the Major Source Markets. Working Paper, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
APEC. (2014). Recent Progress in Tourism Policy in Japan: Policies for Economic and Social Return. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Fourth Tourism Working Group Meeting, Cusco, Peru, 9-10 April. Agenda Item 18.
Arvis, J-F, Shepherd, B. (2011). The Air Connectivity Index: Measuring Integration in the Global Air Transport Network. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5722. Retrieved on March 21 from URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1876298
Bank of Japan. (2016). Economic Impact of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games. January 2016. Retrieved from https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/brp/ron_2016/data/ron160121b.pdf
Betros, C. (2014). Tax-Free Shopping Gets a Boost. Japan Today. Retreived on March 14, 2017 from URL: https://www.japantoday.com/category/executive-impact/view/tax-free-shopping-gets-a-boost
Bix HP. (2013). Japan under Neonationalist, Neoliberal Rule: Moving toward an Abyss? The Asia Pacific Journal, 11(15), 1–16.
Bunghez, C.L. (2016). The Importance of Tourism to a Destination`s Economy. Journal of Eastern Europe Research in Business & Economics, Article ID 143495 DOI: 10.5171/2016.143495. Retrieved on March 13, 2017 from URL: http://ibimapublishing.com/articles/JEERBE/2016/143495/143495.pdf
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