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題名 高額中獎獎金對生育決策之影響
The impact of massive prize on family childbearing decisions
作者 李桂榛
Li, Kuan Jen
貢獻者 羅光達<br>楊子霆
Lo, Kuang Ta<br>Yang, Tzu Ting
李桂榛
Li, Kuan Jen
關鍵詞 生育補助
機會中獎
所得效果
經濟誘因
Childbirth subsidy
Income from prizes and awards won by chance
Income effect
Economic incentive
日期 2017
上傳時間 11-Jul-2017 11:27:42 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文將機會中獎所得當作所得的外生變數，因為來自機會中獎的所得對家庭經濟行為沒有替代效果，可以得到外生所得對生育正的淨效果應為正。中獎所得資料取自使用綜合所得稅資料，並利用最小平方法，檢視中大獎家庭相對中小獎以及中獎金額，在中獎後三年事件窗內是否影響生育決策。
檢視高額獎金對家庭生育決策的影響，發現累積中大獎相對中小獎家庭對中獎後三年內生育有顯著正向的影響，中大獎對三年內生育個數同樣也有正向顯著影響，且不論是一年中累積中大獎還是第一大獎就是大獎，都有95%的顯著水準。但是若不區分大小獎之別，中獎金額對生育決策的影響並不顯著，顯示經濟誘因給付予家庭的補貼額度需要在一定高額的程度以上，才可能會影響生育的決策。
Since the income from prizes and awards won by chance has no substitute effect on the economic behavior, this research takes income from prizes and awards won by chance as an exogenous variable of income, thus the net effect of prizes on family childbearing decisions is positive. The winning information is derived from Individual Income Tax Return, and then we use the ordinary least squares (OLS) method to test whether a relatively massive prize affects individual childbearing decisions within three years after the winning, and we also test whether the amount of the prize affects family childbearing decisions within three years after the winning.
We found relative large prize has a significant positive effect on both family childbearing decisions and the number of births within three years after the winning, the confidence level is 95% regardless the relatively massive prize is defined as a accumulated one or relatively massive jackpot. However, the influence of the amount of the prize on family childbearing decisions turns out to be insignificant, showing that only economic incentives pays to the family to reach a certain level may affect family childbearing decisions.
參考文獻 行政院（2013），《人口政策白皮書：少子女化，高齡化及移民》。
曾怡華（2011），《臺灣生育政策之研究-以雙北市家庭為例》，碩士論文，政治大學行政管理碩士學程研究所。
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Bodkin, R. (1959). Windfall income and consumption. The American Economic Review, 49(4), 602-614.
Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. In Demographic and economic change in developed countries (pp. 209-240). Columbia University Press.
Becker, G. S. (1965). A Theory of the Allocation of Time. The economic journal, 493-517.
Becker, G. S. (1985). Human capital, effort, and the sexual division of labor. Journal of labor economics, 3(1, Part 2), S33-S58.
Becker, G. S. (1991) A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Becker, G. S. (1992). Fertility and the Economy. Journal of Population Economics, 5(3), 185-201.
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Bean, F. D., & Wood, C. H. (1974). Ethnic variations in the relationship between income and fertility. Demography, 11(4), 629-640.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
104255014
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104255014
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 羅光達<br>楊子霆zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lo, Kuang Ta<br>Yang, Tzu Tingen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李桂榛zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Li, Kuan Jenen_US
dc.creator (作者) 李桂榛zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Li, Kuan Jenen_US
dc.date (日期) 2017en_US
dc.date.accessioned 11-Jul-2017 11:27:42 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 11-Jul-2017 11:27:42 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 11-Jul-2017 11:27:42 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0104255014en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/110791-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 104255014zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文將機會中獎所得當作所得的外生變數，因為來自機會中獎的所得對家庭經濟行為沒有替代效果，可以得到外生所得對生育正的淨效果應為正。中獎所得資料取自使用綜合所得稅資料，並利用最小平方法，檢視中大獎家庭相對中小獎以及中獎金額，在中獎後三年事件窗內是否影響生育決策。
檢視高額獎金對家庭生育決策的影響，發現累積中大獎相對中小獎家庭對中獎後三年內生育有顯著正向的影響，中大獎對三年內生育個數同樣也有正向顯著影響，且不論是一年中累積中大獎還是第一大獎就是大獎，都有95%的顯著水準。但是若不區分大小獎之別，中獎金額對生育決策的影響並不顯著，顯示經濟誘因給付予家庭的補貼額度需要在一定高額的程度以上，才可能會影響生育的決策。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Since the income from prizes and awards won by chance has no substitute effect on the economic behavior, this research takes income from prizes and awards won by chance as an exogenous variable of income, thus the net effect of prizes on family childbearing decisions is positive. The winning information is derived from Individual Income Tax Return, and then we use the ordinary least squares (OLS) method to test whether a relatively massive prize affects individual childbearing decisions within three years after the winning, and we also test whether the amount of the prize affects family childbearing decisions within three years after the winning.
We found relative large prize has a significant positive effect on both family childbearing decisions and the number of births within three years after the winning, the confidence level is 95% regardless the relatively massive prize is defined as a accumulated one or relatively massive jackpot. However, the influence of the amount of the prize on family childbearing decisions turns out to be insignificant, showing that only economic incentives pays to the family to reach a certain level may affect family childbearing decisions.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究目的 5
第三節 研究方法及過程 9
第四節 章節安排 13
第貳章 文獻回顧 15
第一節 所得對生育影響文獻綜覽 17
第二節 其他變數對生育影響文獻綜覽 25
第三節 機會中獎面文獻綜覽 27
第四節 本章小結 31
第參章 我國鼓勵生育制度與機會中獎項目 39
第一節 我國中央政府鼓勵生育制度 40
第二節 我國地方政府鼓勵生育制度 45
第三節 我國機會中獎項目及沿革 52
第肆章 研究資料 61
第一節 主要研究變數 62
第二節 模型設定與計量方法 68
第伍章 研究結果 73
第一節 敘述統計 74
第二節 迴歸實證結果 80
第三節 穩健性分析 97
第陸章 結論與建議 105
第一節 發現與結論 106
第二節 研究限制 107
參考文獻 109
附錄 121		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2266012 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104255014en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育補助zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 機會中獎zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 所得效果zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟誘因zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Childbirth subsidyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Income from prizes and awards won by chanceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Income effecten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economic incentiveen_US
dc.title (題名) 高額中獎獎金對生育決策之影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The impact of massive prize on family childbearing decisionsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 行政院（2013），《人口政策白皮書：少子女化，高齡化及移民》。
曾怡華（2011），《臺灣生育政策之研究-以雙北市家庭為例》，碩士論文，政治大學行政管理碩士學程研究所。
Angrist, J. D., & Evans, W. N. (1996). Children and their parents` labor supply: Evidence from exogenous variation in family size (No. w5778). National bureau of economic research.
Abernethy, V. D., & Penaloza, R. V. (2002). Fertility decline in former “Asian tigers”. Population & Environment, 23(3), 245-265.
Adsera, A. (2004). Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions. Journal of Population Economics, 17(1), 17-43.
Bodkin, R. (1959). Windfall income and consumption. The American Economic Review, 49(4), 602-614.
Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. In Demographic and economic change in developed countries (pp. 209-240). Columbia University Press.
Becker, G. S. (1965). A Theory of the Allocation of Time. The economic journal, 493-517.
Becker, G. S. (1985). Human capital, effort, and the sexual division of labor. Journal of labor economics, 3(1, Part 2), S33-S58.
Becker, G. S. (1991) A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Becker, G. S. (1992). Fertility and the Economy. Journal of Population Economics, 5(3), 185-201.
Ben-Porath, Y. (1973). Economic analysis of fertility in Israel: point and counterpoint. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2, Part 2), S202-S233.
Bean, F. D. (1973). Components of income and expected family size among Mexican Americans. Social Science Quarterly, 103-116.
Bean, F. D., & Wood, C. H. (1974). Ethnic variations in the relationship between income and fertility. Demography, 11(4), 629-640.
Butz, W. P., & Ward, M. P. (1979). The emergence of countercyclical US fertility. The American Economic Review, 69(3), 318-328.
Birdsall, N. (1988). Economic approaches to population growth. Handbook of development economics, 1, 477-542.
Blau, D. M., & Robins, P. K. (1988). Child-care costs and family labor supply. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 374-381.
Borg, M. O. M. (1989). The income-fertility relationship: Effect of the net price of a child. Demography, 26(2), 301-310.
Bongaarts, J., & Feeney, G. (1998). On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population and development review, 271-291.
Blundell, R., & MaCurdy, T. (2000). Labor Supply," Handbook of Labor Economics, O. Ashenfelter and D. Card, eds.
Berninger, I. (2013). Women’s income and childbearing in context: First births in Denmark and Finland. Acta Sociologica, 56(2), 97-115.
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