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題名 公布住宅竊盜地圖會影響房價嗎?
Does the Announcement of the Residential Burglary Mapping Affect Housing Price?作者 翟珮慈
Chai, Pei Tzu貢獻者 張金鶚<br>江穎慧
翟珮慈
Chai, Pei Tzu關鍵詞 住宅竊盜
房價
空間迴歸模型
差異中之差異法
Residential burglary
Housing price
Spatial regression model
Difference in difference method日期 2017 上傳時間 10-Aug-2017 10:05:25 (UTC+8) 摘要 臺北市政府自2015年10月公布住宅、汽車與單車竊盜的犯罪地點。對於政府公開犯罪資訊的行為,引起民眾質疑此舉是否波及犯罪地點周圍的房價。本文選取與住宅關係密切的住宅竊盜為標的,探討住宅竊盜資訊公開對房價的影響效果。本文運用特徵價格理論結合空間迴歸模型,檢視於住宅竊盜資訊公開後,住宅樣本與住宅竊盜點的鄰近程度對房價的影響效果,結果證實住宅竊盜對房價的負向影響範圍為200公尺,約每平方公尺單價下跌2.37%。考量人民對治安的觀感多以犯罪事件發生頻率來衡量地區治安情形,故討論住宅竊盜筆數對房價的影響效果,證實住宅竊盜件數愈多對房價的負向影響效果愈大,即住宅半徑200公尺內,每增加一筆住宅竊盜案約每平方公尺單價下跌約0.6%。最後,為確認住宅竊盜對房價影響的因果關係並同時檢視政府「公布」住宅竊盜地圖對房價的影響情形,本文以差異中之差異法(Difference-in- Difference, DID)進行估計,實證結果顯示住宅竊盜資訊公開確實對房價產生負向影響。
Taipei City government has announced residential, automobile and bicycle burglary location since October 2015.The public questioned whether this behavior detrimentally affect housing price nearby the criminal location. In this paper, we choose the residential burglary which is closely related to housing , and disscuss whether the announcement of the residential burglary map detrimentally affect housing price.We adopt hedonic theory and spatial regression model to examine the effect on housing price nearby the residential burglary location published. The result shows residential burglary affect housing price by 2.37% within 200 meters. Considering people measure the condition of public security relying on the frequency of crime.We disscuss the effect of the numbers of residential burglaries on housing price.The results suggest that the more the number of residential burglaries , the greater negative impact on housing price. Finally, the paper uses difference-in-difference estimator to confirm the causal relationship between residential burglary and housing price. In addition we examine the impact of the government`s “announcement” of residential burglary maps on housing price. We find that the residential burglary information does have a negative impact on housing price.參考文獻 參考文獻中文文獻:王翔正,2015,「侵入住宅竊盜被害影響因素及被害後反應之研究」,中央警察大學犯罪防治研究所碩士論文:桃園。李泓見、張金鶚,2006,「臺北都會區不同住宅類型價差之研究」,『臺灣土地研究』,9 (1),63-87。邱奕堯,2013,「臺北市犯罪現象之時空分析」,國立臺灣大學地理環境資源研究所碩士論文:臺北。林文卿,2002,「犯罪被害、警察作為對被害恐懼感之影響:以桃園縣為例」,中央警察大學犯罪防治研究所碩士論文:桃園。林祖嘉、林素菁,1993,「臺灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」,『住宅學報』(1):21-45。紀凱婷,2009,「臺北市新推個案定價之時間與空間相依性分析」,國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文:臺北。侯崇文,1995,「社會失序, 自我保護與害怕犯罪」,『犯罪學期刊』,1: 51-75。翁國峰,2007,「集體效能對社區居民犯罪恐懼影響之研究」『犯罪學期刊』10(2): 115-143。陳玉書,2002,「社會治安與犯罪被害恐懼感」,論文發表於〈臺灣社會問題研究學術研討會〉,中央研究院:臺北,民國 91年9月27日至28日。莊喻婷,2015,「臺北市公共自行車場站對鄰近住宅價格之影響」,國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文:臺北。許春金、陳玉書,2013,『犯罪預防與犯罪分析』,臺北:三民書局。黃映翎,2008,「臺北市士林區指標型犯罪之空間分析」,東吳大學社會學研究所碩士論文:臺北。黃美娟,2007,「土地面積與價格關係之研究」,國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文:臺北。曾菁敏,2007,「空地開發外部性對住宅土地價格影響之研究-臺南市的實證分析」,『住宅學報』,17(1):23-50。溫在弘,2015,「空間分析:方法與應用」,臺北:雙葉書廊。溫在弘、劉擇昌、林民浩,2010,「犯罪地圖繪製與熱區分析方法及其應用:以1998-2007年臺北市住宅竊盜犯罪為例」,『地理研究』,52:43-63。蔡德輝、張吾平,2005,「住宅竊盜重複被害特性與防制策略之研究」,內政部警政署刑事警察局委託研究案(計畫編號:094302020200C1002)。譚子文、廖世義,2009,「犯罪類型對危機感受及衝擊程度影響之研究」,商略學報,『商略學報』,1(1):57-73。鄭昆山,2004,「臺灣地區住宅竊盜與防制措施之研究」(計畫編號:P 093-301010200c1-008)臺北市:國科會。賴進貴、葉高華、王韋立,2004,「土地利用變遷與空間相依性之探討以臺北盆地聚落變遷為例」,臺灣地理資訊學刊,1:29-40。戴國正,2011,「大眾捷運系統對房價影響效果之再檢視」,國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文:臺北。英文文獻:Adams, R. E., and Serpe, R. T., 2000, “Social integration, fear of crime, and life satisfaction”, Sociological Perspectives, 43(4): 605-629.Anderson, David A., 1999, “The Aggregate Burden of Crime”, The Journal of Law and Economics, 42(2): 611-642.Anselin, L., 1988, Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models, Dorddrecht : Springer Netherlands.Anselin,L., 1995, “Local Indicators of Spatial Association-LISA.”,Geographical Analysis, 27(2): 93-115.Anselin, L., 2005, Exploring Spatial Data with GeoDa: A Workbook, Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science.Bannister J. and Fyfe, N. R., 2001, “Introduction:Fear and the City”, Urban studies, 38(5-6): 807-813。Bowes, D.R. and Ihlanfeldt, K.R., 2001, “Identifying the Impacts of Rail Transit Stations on Residential Property Values”, Journal of Urban Economics, 50: 1–25.Buonanno, Paolo, Daniel Montolio, and Josep Maria Raya-Vílchez., 2013, “Housing Prices and Crime Perception”, Empirical Economics, 45(1): 305-321.Caudill, B. S., Affuso, E., and Yang, M., 2015, “ Registered Sex Offenders and House Prices: An Hedonic Analysis. ” Urban Studies, 52(13): 2425–2440.Ceccato, V. and Wilhelmsson, M., 2011, “The Impact of Crime on Apartment Prices: Evidence from Stockholm, Sweden”, Geografiska Annaler: Series B, Human Geography, 93(1): 81-103.Ceccato, V. and Wilhelmsson. M., 2012, “Acts of Vandalism and Fear in Neighbourhoods: Do They Affect Housing Prices?”, The urban fabric of crime and fear. Springer Netherlands, 191-213.Cliff, A. and Ord, J. K., 1973, Spatial Autocorrelation, London: Pion.Cohen, Lawrence E., and Marcus Felson, 1979, “Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach”, American sociological review, 588-608.Cohen, Mark A., 1990, “ A Note on the Cost of Crime to Victims”, Urban Studies, (27)1: 139-146.Fotheringham, A. S., Brunsdon , C., and Charlton , M. E., 2002, “Geographically Weighted regression : The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships . London , England : Wiley.Garofalo, J., 1979, “Victimization and the Fear of Crime”, Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 16: 80-97.Garofalo, J., 1981, “The Fear of Crime: Cause and Consequences”, Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 72: 839-859.Gibbons, S., 2004, “The Costs of Urban Property Crime”, Economic Journal, 114(499): F441-F463.Haggett P, Cliff A D., 1977, Locational Models. London: Edward Amold Ltd., 37-69.Ihlanfeldt, K. and T. Mayock. 2010. “Panel Data Estimates of the Effects of Different Types of Crime on Housing Prices”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 40(2): 161-172.Kellekci, Ö. L. and L. Berkö., 2006, “Mass Housing: User Satisfaction in Housing and its Environment in Istanbul, Turkey.” International Journal of Housing Policy, 6(1): 77-99.Lancaster,Kelvin J.,1966, “A New Approach to Consumer Theory.” Journal of Political Economy, 74(2):132-156.Larsen, James E., Kenneth J. Lowrey, and Joseph W. Coleman.,2003, “The Effect of Proximity to a Registered Sex Offender`s Residence on Single-Family House Selling Price”, Appraisal Journal , 71(3): 253-265.Lechner, M., 2011, “The Estimation of Causal Effects by Difference-in-Difference Methods., Foundations and Trends® in Econometrics, 4(3): 165-224.Linden, L. and Rockoff, J. E., 2008, “Estimates of the Impact of Crime Risk on Property Values from Megan`s Laws.” The American Economic Review, 98(3): 1103-1127.Liska, Allen E., and Barbara D. Warner., 1991 “Functions of crime: A paradoxical process”, American Journal of Sociology, 96(6): 1441-1463.Lynch, Allen K., and David W. Rasmussen., 2001, “Measuring the Impact of Crime on House Prices”, Applied Economics, 33(15): 1981-1989.Lyndsay N. B. , R. T. Greenbaum and Tita. G. E., 2013, “Does Crime Drive Housing Sales? Evidence from Los Angeles” Journal of Crime and Justice, 36(3):299-318.Malpezzi, Stephen, 2003, “Hedonic pricing models: a selective and applied review”, Housing economics and public policy, 67-89.Pace, L.K, Barry, R. and Sirmans, C. F. (1998) Spatial Statistics and Real Estate, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17: 5-13.Pope, Carl E., 1980, “Patterns in burglary: An Empirical Examination of Offense and Offender Characteristics”, Journal of Criminal Justice, 8(1): 39-51. Pope, Jaren C., 2008, “Fear of Crime and Housing Prices: Household Reactions to Sex Offender registries. ” Journal of Urban Economics,64.(3): 601-614.Rizzo, M. J., 1979, “The Cost of Crime to Victims: an Empirical Analysis.”, Journal of Legal Studies, 8(1):177–205.Rosen, S., 1974, “Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition”, Journal of Political Economy, 82(1): 34-55.Sirman, G. S., Macpherson, D. A., and Zietz, E. N.,2005, “The Composition of Hedonic Pricing Models” Journal of Real Estate Literature, 13(1):1 3-44.Skogan, Wesley G. and Michael G. Maxfield., 1981, Coping with Crime: Individual and neighborhood reactions, Beverly Hills: SageSkogan, Wesley G., 1999, “Measuring what matters: Crime, disorder, and fear”, Measuring what matters: Proceedings from the Policing Research Institute meetings. Washington, DC: US Deptartment.Sundeen, Richard A., and James T. Mathieu., 1976, “The Fear of Crime and Its Consequences Among Elderly in Three Urban Communities”, The Gerontologist, 16(3): 211-219.Suriatini Ismail., 2006, “Spatial Autocorrelation and Real estate Studies: A Literature Review”, Malaysian Journal of Real Estate, 1(1): 1-13.Thaler, R., 1978 , “A Note on the Value of Crime Control: Evidence From the Property Market”, Journal of Urban Economics, 5(1) : 137-145.Tita, G. E., Petras, T. L.and Greenbaum, R. T. ,2006 , “Crime and Residential Choice: a Neighborhood Level Analysis of the Impact of Crime on Housing Prices”, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 22(4): 299-317.Warr, M., 1985, “Fear of Rape among Urban Women”, Social problems, 32(3): 238-250.Wilhelmsson, M., and Ceccato, V., 2015, “ Does Burglary Affect Property Prices in a Nonmetropolitan Municipality?”, Journal of Rural Studies, (39) 210-218. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
104257025資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104257025 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 張金鶚<br>江穎慧 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 翟珮慈 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chai, Pei Tzu en_US dc.creator (作者) 翟珮慈 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chai, Pei Tzu en_US dc.date (日期) 2017 en_US dc.date.accessioned 10-Aug-2017 10:05:25 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 10-Aug-2017 10:05:25 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 10-Aug-2017 10:05:25 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0104257025 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/111813 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 104257025 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 臺北市政府自2015年10月公布住宅、汽車與單車竊盜的犯罪地點。對於政府公開犯罪資訊的行為,引起民眾質疑此舉是否波及犯罪地點周圍的房價。本文選取與住宅關係密切的住宅竊盜為標的,探討住宅竊盜資訊公開對房價的影響效果。本文運用特徵價格理論結合空間迴歸模型,檢視於住宅竊盜資訊公開後,住宅樣本與住宅竊盜點的鄰近程度對房價的影響效果,結果證實住宅竊盜對房價的負向影響範圍為200公尺,約每平方公尺單價下跌2.37%。考量人民對治安的觀感多以犯罪事件發生頻率來衡量地區治安情形,故討論住宅竊盜筆數對房價的影響效果,證實住宅竊盜件數愈多對房價的負向影響效果愈大,即住宅半徑200公尺內,每增加一筆住宅竊盜案約每平方公尺單價下跌約0.6%。最後,為確認住宅竊盜對房價影響的因果關係並同時檢視政府「公布」住宅竊盜地圖對房價的影響情形,本文以差異中之差異法(Difference-in- Difference, DID)進行估計,實證結果顯示住宅竊盜資訊公開確實對房價產生負向影響。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Taipei City government has announced residential, automobile and bicycle burglary location since October 2015.The public questioned whether this behavior detrimentally affect housing price nearby the criminal location. In this paper, we choose the residential burglary which is closely related to housing , and disscuss whether the announcement of the residential burglary map detrimentally affect housing price.We adopt hedonic theory and spatial regression model to examine the effect on housing price nearby the residential burglary location published. The result shows residential burglary affect housing price by 2.37% within 200 meters. Considering people measure the condition of public security relying on the frequency of crime.We disscuss the effect of the numbers of residential burglaries on housing price.The results suggest that the more the number of residential burglaries , the greater negative impact on housing price. Finally, the paper uses difference-in-difference estimator to confirm the causal relationship between residential burglary and housing price. In addition we examine the impact of the government`s “announcement” of residential burglary maps on housing price. We find that the residential burglary information does have a negative impact on housing price. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究內容與方法 5第三節 研究架構與流程 7第二章 文獻回顧 9第一節 犯罪被害恐懼感 9第二節 犯罪對房價的影響關係 12第三節 空間迴歸模型 16第四節 小結 18第三章 研究設計與資料處理 19第一節 研究設計 19第二節 實證模型之建立 21第三節 資料說明與處理 29第四章 實證分析 37第一節 公布後住宅竊盜對房價影響效果 37第二節 政府公布住宅竊盜對房價的影響 45第五章 結論與建議 51第一節 結論 51第二節 建議 53參考文獻 54附錄 59 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1549533 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104257025 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 住宅竊盜 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空間迴歸模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 差異中之差異法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Residential burglary en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing price en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spatial regression model en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Difference in difference method en_US dc.title (題名) 公布住宅竊盜地圖會影響房價嗎? zh_TW dc.title (題名) Does the Announcement of the Residential Burglary Mapping Affect Housing Price? en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考文獻中文文獻:王翔正,2015,「侵入住宅竊盜被害影響因素及被害後反應之研究」,中央警察大學犯罪防治研究所碩士論文:桃園。李泓見、張金鶚,2006,「臺北都會區不同住宅類型價差之研究」,『臺灣土地研究』,9 (1),63-87。邱奕堯,2013,「臺北市犯罪現象之時空分析」,國立臺灣大學地理環境資源研究所碩士論文:臺北。林文卿,2002,「犯罪被害、警察作為對被害恐懼感之影響:以桃園縣為例」,中央警察大學犯罪防治研究所碩士論文:桃園。林祖嘉、林素菁,1993,「臺灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」,『住宅學報』(1):21-45。紀凱婷,2009,「臺北市新推個案定價之時間與空間相依性分析」,國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文:臺北。侯崇文,1995,「社會失序, 自我保護與害怕犯罪」,『犯罪學期刊』,1: 51-75。翁國峰,2007,「集體效能對社區居民犯罪恐懼影響之研究」『犯罪學期刊』10(2): 115-143。陳玉書,2002,「社會治安與犯罪被害恐懼感」,論文發表於〈臺灣社會問題研究學術研討會〉,中央研究院:臺北,民國 91年9月27日至28日。莊喻婷,2015,「臺北市公共自行車場站對鄰近住宅價格之影響」,國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文:臺北。許春金、陳玉書,2013,『犯罪預防與犯罪分析』,臺北:三民書局。黃映翎,2008,「臺北市士林區指標型犯罪之空間分析」,東吳大學社會學研究所碩士論文:臺北。黃美娟,2007,「土地面積與價格關係之研究」,國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文:臺北。曾菁敏,2007,「空地開發外部性對住宅土地價格影響之研究-臺南市的實證分析」,『住宅學報』,17(1):23-50。溫在弘,2015,「空間分析:方法與應用」,臺北:雙葉書廊。溫在弘、劉擇昌、林民浩,2010,「犯罪地圖繪製與熱區分析方法及其應用:以1998-2007年臺北市住宅竊盜犯罪為例」,『地理研究』,52:43-63。蔡德輝、張吾平,2005,「住宅竊盜重複被害特性與防制策略之研究」,內政部警政署刑事警察局委託研究案(計畫編號:094302020200C1002)。譚子文、廖世義,2009,「犯罪類型對危機感受及衝擊程度影響之研究」,商略學報,『商略學報』,1(1):57-73。鄭昆山,2004,「臺灣地區住宅竊盜與防制措施之研究」(計畫編號:P 093-301010200c1-008)臺北市:國科會。賴進貴、葉高華、王韋立,2004,「土地利用變遷與空間相依性之探討以臺北盆地聚落變遷為例」,臺灣地理資訊學刊,1:29-40。戴國正,2011,「大眾捷運系統對房價影響效果之再檢視」,國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文:臺北。英文文獻:Adams, R. 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