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題名 內戰中的組織競爭與自殺式恐怖襲擊（1981-2015）：武裝組織、政府回應、受迫少數
Outbidding and suicide terrorism in civil wars (1981-2015): militant organizations, government response, and oppressed minority作者 葉智斌
Ye, Zhibin貢獻者 蔡中民
Tsai, Chung-min
葉智斌
Ye, Zhibin關鍵詞 恐怖主義
武裝組織
組織競爭
自殺式恐怖主義
Terrorism
Militant organization
Outbidding
Suicide terrorism日期 2017 上傳時間 28-Aug-2017 11:49:01 (UTC+8) 摘要 在關於恐怖主義的研究文獻中有一個研究現象得到了諸多關注，這就是不同武裝組織之間的組織競爭所引發的恐怖襲擊。既有研究認為組織競爭會引起恐怖襲擊的增加，但對組織競爭理論的量化分析則無法找到充分證據支持這一理論的理論預期。在本研究中，我試圖提出一個關於解釋內戰中的組織競爭與自殺式恐怖襲擊之關係的新視角。這一新視角與以往文獻有三點不同。第一，本研究主張為理解組織競爭與自殺式恐怖襲擊之關係，研究者除了關注武裝組織外，也需要關注武裝組織支持者及與武裝組織敵對的政府。第二，本研究嘗試了分析組織競爭理論中不同部分對引發襲擊的影響，並希望能補充以往文獻中“組織增加導致襲擊增加”這一邏輯之不足。第三，本研究將組織競爭引發恐怖襲擊置於更廣義的政治競爭過程中，希望能增進對引發恐怖主義這種政治暴力的社會環境之理解。本研究的資料分析包含1981年至2015年的87個國家。資料分析結論支持了本研究的理論預期，也提出了未來值得進一步探討的新問題。
The research literature on terrorism presents an interesting question regarding the effect of the competition among rival militant organizations, also known as outbidding, on the occurrence of terrorist attacks. Previous research has elaborated on how outbidding leads to the increase in the number of terrorist attacks, while their empirical tests only find insufficient evidence. In this thesis, I offer a new approach of explaining how outbidding affects the occurrence of suicide terrorism during civil war. The new approach differs from previous research on three aspects. First, in order to better understand outbidding, the new approach argues why we should focus on not only the militant organizations as perpetrators, but also their government opponents and the oppressed minority that perpetrators claim to represent. Second, the new approach points out the need to investigate the effects of different components of outbidding theory so that we can go beyond the simplistic story of “more groups, more attack”. Third, the new approach locates outbidding in a more general political competition process. The empirical analysis covers 87 countries from 1981 to 2015. The statistical findings largely support my theoretical expectations.參考文獻 Abrahms, Max. 2012. "The Political Effectiveness of Terrorism Revisited." Comparative Political Studies 45(3): 366-393. Acosta, Benjamin. 2016. "Dying for Survival: Why Militant Organizations Continue to Conduct Suicide Attacks." Journal of Peace Research 53(2): 180-196. Bloom, Mia. 2004. "Palestinian Suicide Bombing: Public Support, Market Share, and Outbidding." Political Science Quarterly 119(1): 61-88. Bloom, Mia. 2006. "Motivations for Suicide Terrorism." in Pedahzur, Ami, ed. Root Causes of Suicide Terrorism: the Globalization of Martyrdom. London and New York: Routledge. Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan, and Eric Dickson. 2007. "The Propaganda of the Deed: Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Mobilization." American Journal of Political Science 51(2): 364-381. Carter, David. 2012. "Terrorist Group and Government Interaction: Progress in Empirical Research." Perspectives on Terrorism 6 (4-5): 108-124. Chenoweth, Erica. 2010. "Democratic Competition and Terrorist Activity." The Journal of Politics 72(1): 16-30. Chenoweth, Erica. 2013. "Terrorism and Democracy." Annual Review of Political Science 16:355–378. Collard-Wexler, Simon, Costantino Pischedda, and Michael G. Smith. 2004. "Do Foreign Occupations Cause Suicide Attacks?" Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(4): 625-657. Conrad, Justin, and Kevin Greene. 2015. "Competition, Differentiation, and the Severity of Terrorist Attacks." The Journal of Politics 77(2): 546-561. Crenshaw, Martha. 1985. "An Organizational Approach to the Analysis of Political Terrorism." Orbis 29(3): 465-489. Crenshaw, Martha. 2007. "Explaining Suicide Terrorism: A Review Essay." Security Studies 16(1): 133-162. Findley, Michael, and Joseph Young. 2012. "More Combatant Groups, More Terror?: Empirical Tests of an Outbidding Logic." Terrorism and Political Violence 24(5): 706-721. Fortna, Virginia Page. 2015. "Do Terrorists Win? Rebels` Use of Terrorism and Civil War Outcomes." International Organization 69(3): 519-556. Gibney, Mark, Linda Cornett, Reed Wood, Peter Haschke, and Daniel Arnon. 2016. The Political Terror Scale 1976-2015. Date Retrieved, from the Political Terror Scale. http://www.politicalterrorscale.org. Hoffman, Bruce. 1997. "Why Terrorists Don`t Claim Credit." Terrorism and Political Violence 9(1): 1-6. Hoffman, Bruce. 2006. Inside Terrorism. New York: Columbia University Press. Horowitz, Michael. 2015. "The Rise and Spread of Suicide Bombing." Annual Review of Political Science 18: 69-84. Kalyvas, Stathis, and Laia Balcells. 2010. “International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict.” American Political Science Review. 104 (3): 415-429. Krueger, Alan. 2007. What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Kydd, Andrew, and Barbara Walter. 2006. "The Strategies of Terrorism." International Security 31(1): 49-80. Li, Quan. 2005. "Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidents?" Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(2): 278-297. Marshall, Monty, Ted Robert Gurr, and Keith Jaggers. 2016. POLITY IV PROJECT, Dataset Users` Manual. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4manualv2015.pdf. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. 2017. Global Terrorism Database. https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd Nemeth, Stephen. 2014. "The Effect of Competition on Terrorist Group Operations." Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(2): 336-362. Pape, Robert. 2003. "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism." American Political Science Review 97(3): 343-361. Pedahzur, Ami. 2005. Suicide Terrorism. Cambridge: Polity Press. Pettersson, Therese, and Peter Wallensteen. 2015. "Armed Conflicts, 1946-2014." Journal of Peace Research 52(4): 536-550. Stanton, Jessica. 2013. "Terrorism in the Context of Civil War." The Journal of Politics 75(4): 1009-1022. Thomas, Jakana. 2014. "Rewarding Bad Behavior: How Governments Respond to Terrorism in Civil War." American Journal of Political Science 58(4): 804-818. UCDP. 2017. "UCDP Dyadic Dataset Codebook, Version 17.1" http://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/dyadic/ucdp-dyadic-171.pdf UCDP/ PRIO. 2017. "UCDP/ PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook, Version 17.1". http://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ucdpprio/ucdp-prio-acd-171.pdf United Nations. 2016. “National Accounts Main Aggregates Database”. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/Introduction.asp World Bank. 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016." http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicator Young, Joseph, and Michael Findley. 2011. "Promise and Pitfalls of Terrorism Research." International Studies Review 13(3): 411-431. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
政治學系
102252031資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1022520311 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 蔡中民 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Tsai, Chung-min en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 葉智斌 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Ye, Zhibin en_US dc.creator (作者) 葉智斌 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Ye, Zhibin en_US dc.date (日期) 2017 en_US dc.date.accessioned 28-Aug-2017 11:49:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 28-Aug-2017 11:49:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 28-Aug-2017 11:49:01 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1022520311 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/112226 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 政治學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102252031 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在關於恐怖主義的研究文獻中有一個研究現象得到了諸多關注，這就是不同武裝組織之間的組織競爭所引發的恐怖襲擊。既有研究認為組織競爭會引起恐怖襲擊的增加，但對組織競爭理論的量化分析則無法找到充分證據支持這一理論的理論預期。在本研究中，我試圖提出一個關於解釋內戰中的組織競爭與自殺式恐怖襲擊之關係的新視角。這一新視角與以往文獻有三點不同。第一，本研究主張為理解組織競爭與自殺式恐怖襲擊之關係，研究者除了關注武裝組織外，也需要關注武裝組織支持者及與武裝組織敵對的政府。第二，本研究嘗試了分析組織競爭理論中不同部分對引發襲擊的影響，並希望能補充以往文獻中“組織增加導致襲擊增加”這一邏輯之不足。第三，本研究將組織競爭引發恐怖襲擊置於更廣義的政治競爭過程中，希望能增進對引發恐怖主義這種政治暴力的社會環境之理解。本研究的資料分析包含1981年至2015年的87個國家。資料分析結論支持了本研究的理論預期，也提出了未來值得進一步探討的新問題。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The research literature on terrorism presents an interesting question regarding the effect of the competition among rival militant organizations, also known as outbidding, on the occurrence of terrorist attacks. Previous research has elaborated on how outbidding leads to the increase in the number of terrorist attacks, while their empirical tests only find insufficient evidence. In this thesis, I offer a new approach of explaining how outbidding affects the occurrence of suicide terrorism during civil war. The new approach differs from previous research on three aspects. First, in order to better understand outbidding, the new approach argues why we should focus on not only the militant organizations as perpetrators, but also their government opponents and the oppressed minority that perpetrators claim to represent. Second, the new approach points out the need to investigate the effects of different components of outbidding theory so that we can go beyond the simplistic story of “more groups, more attack”. Third, the new approach locates outbidding in a more general political competition process. The empirical analysis covers 87 countries from 1981 to 2015. The statistical findings largely support my theoretical expectations. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 1 2. Literature Review 3 2.1 Terrorism 3 2.2 Effectiveness of Terrorism and Goals of Terrorist Organizations 4 2.3 Suicide Terrorism 6 2.4 The Use of Terrorism in Civil Wars 9 2.5 Three Generations of Outbidding Theory 12 3. A New Approach of Explaining Outbidding 16 3.1 Between Government and Oppressed Population 19 3.2 Between Oppressed Minority and Militant Organizations 21 3.3 Between Militant Organizations and Government 24 4. Research Design 26 4.1 Research Question 26 4.2 Research Hypotheses 28 4.3 Variables, Measurements and Data Source 29 5. Data Analysis: Method, Results, and Discussion 35 5.1 Method 35 5.2 Results and Discussion 36 6. Conclusion 43 References 46 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1022520311 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 恐怖主義 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 武裝組織 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 組織競爭 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自殺式恐怖主義 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Terrorism en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Militant organization en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Outbidding en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Suicide terrorism en_US dc.title (題名) 內戰中的組織競爭與自殺式恐怖襲擊（1981-2015）：武裝組織、政府回應、受迫少數 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Outbidding and suicide terrorism in civil wars (1981-2015): militant organizations, government response, and oppressed minority en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Abrahms, Max. 2012. "The Political Effectiveness of Terrorism Revisited." Comparative Political Studies 45(3): 366-393. Acosta, Benjamin. 2016. "Dying for Survival: Why Militant Organizations Continue to Conduct Suicide Attacks." Journal of Peace Research 53(2): 180-196. Bloom, Mia. 2004. "Palestinian Suicide Bombing: Public Support, Market Share, and Outbidding." Political Science Quarterly 119(1): 61-88. Bloom, Mia. 2006. "Motivations for Suicide Terrorism." in Pedahzur, Ami, ed. Root Causes of Suicide Terrorism: the Globalization of Martyrdom. London and New York: Routledge. Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan, and Eric Dickson. 2007. "The Propaganda of the Deed: Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Mobilization." American Journal of Political Science 51(2): 364-381. Carter, David. 2012. "Terrorist Group and Government Interaction: Progress in Empirical Research." Perspectives on Terrorism 6 (4-5): 108-124. Chenoweth, Erica. 2010. "Democratic Competition and Terrorist Activity." The Journal of Politics 72(1): 16-30. Chenoweth, Erica. 2013. "Terrorism and Democracy." Annual Review of Political Science 16:355–378. Collard-Wexler, Simon, Costantino Pischedda, and Michael G. Smith. 2004. "Do Foreign Occupations Cause Suicide Attacks?" Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(4): 625-657. Conrad, Justin, and Kevin Greene. 2015. "Competition, Differentiation, and the Severity of Terrorist Attacks." The Journal of Politics 77(2): 546-561. Crenshaw, Martha. 1985. "An Organizational Approach to the Analysis of Political Terrorism." Orbis 29(3): 465-489. Crenshaw, Martha. 2007. "Explaining Suicide Terrorism: A Review Essay." Security Studies 16(1): 133-162. Findley, Michael, and Joseph Young. 2012. "More Combatant Groups, More Terror?: Empirical Tests of an Outbidding Logic." Terrorism and Political Violence 24(5): 706-721. Fortna, Virginia Page. 2015. "Do Terrorists Win? Rebels` Use of Terrorism and Civil War Outcomes." International Organization 69(3): 519-556. Gibney, Mark, Linda Cornett, Reed Wood, Peter Haschke, and Daniel Arnon. 2016. The Political Terror Scale 1976-2015. Date Retrieved, from the Political Terror Scale. http://www.politicalterrorscale.org. Hoffman, Bruce. 1997. "Why Terrorists Don`t Claim Credit." Terrorism and Political Violence 9(1): 1-6. Hoffman, Bruce. 2006. Inside Terrorism. New York: Columbia University Press. Horowitz, Michael. 2015. "The Rise and Spread of Suicide Bombing." Annual Review of Political Science 18: 69-84. Kalyvas, Stathis, and Laia Balcells. 2010. “International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict.” American Political Science Review. 104 (3): 415-429. Krueger, Alan. 2007. What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Kydd, Andrew, and Barbara Walter. 2006. "The Strategies of Terrorism." International Security 31(1): 49-80. Li, Quan. 2005. "Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidents?" Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(2): 278-297. Marshall, Monty, Ted Robert Gurr, and Keith Jaggers. 2016. POLITY IV PROJECT, Dataset Users` Manual. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4manualv2015.pdf. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. 2017. Global Terrorism Database. https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd Nemeth, Stephen. 2014. "The Effect of Competition on Terrorist Group Operations." Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(2): 336-362. Pape, Robert. 2003. "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism." American Political Science Review 97(3): 343-361. Pedahzur, Ami. 2005. Suicide Terrorism. Cambridge: Polity Press. Pettersson, Therese, and Peter Wallensteen. 2015. "Armed Conflicts, 1946-2014." Journal of Peace Research 52(4): 536-550. Stanton, Jessica. 2013. "Terrorism in the Context of Civil War." The Journal of Politics 75(4): 1009-1022. Thomas, Jakana. 2014. "Rewarding Bad Behavior: How Governments Respond to Terrorism in Civil War." American Journal of Political Science 58(4): 804-818. UCDP. 2017. "UCDP Dyadic Dataset Codebook, Version 17.1" http://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/dyadic/ucdp-dyadic-171.pdf UCDP/ PRIO. 2017. "UCDP/ PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook, Version 17.1". http://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ucdpprio/ucdp-prio-acd-171.pdf United Nations. 2016. “National Accounts Main Aggregates Database”. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/Introduction.asp World Bank. 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016." http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicator Young, Joseph, and Michael Findley. 2011. "Promise and Pitfalls of Terrorism Research." International Studies Review 13(3): 411-431. zh_TW
