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題名 六個東協國家國際收支的決定因素研究: 以Panel Data分析法
The Determinants of Balance of Payments in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis
作者 夏英杰
貢獻者 莊奕琦
Chuang, Yih-Chyi
夏英杰
關鍵詞 收入平均
凱因斯主義分析法
貨幣分析法
面板數據
Balance of payments
Keynesian approach
Monetary approach
Panel data
日期 2017
上傳時間 28-Aug-2017 12:06:57 (UTC+8)
摘要 This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run.
This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run.
參考文獻 Adamu, Patricia A. (2007). Balance of payment adjustment: The west African monetary zone experience. Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 10(2), 100-116.
Akpansung, Aniekan O. (2013). A review of empirical literature on balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 4(2), 124-132.
Ali, Arfan, Shukui, Tan, Selvarathnam, Santhirasegaram, Xiaolin, Xu & Sabor, Abdul. (2008). Political stability and balance of payment: An empirical study in Asia. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(9), 1149-1157.
Bird, Graham. (1981). Balance of payment stabilisation in developing countries. Odi Working paper, 5. Retrieved from: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/6831.pdf
Blanchard, Oliver & Johnson, David. (2013). Macroeconomics (6rd ed.) London: Pearson.
Brown, Denis, & Bidemi, Joseph. (2015). Fiscal policy measures and balance of payments in Nigeria. Journal of Global Economics, 3(4), 1-6.
Daniels, Joseph & VanHose, David. (2005). International monetary and financial Economics (3rd ed.) New York: Mc Graw Hill.
Dornbusch, Rudiger & Standley Fischer. (1995). Macroeconomics (6th ed.) United States of America: Thomson Shouth-Western.
Duasa, Jarita. (2004). The Malaysian balance of payments: Keynesian Approach Versus Monetary Approach. Retrieved from http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/scescecf4/26.htm
Dullien, Sebastian, Kotle, Detlef J., Marques, Alejandro, Priewe Jan. (2010). The financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 and developing countries. New York: United Nations.
Fleermuys, FN (2005). The balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon: An econometric study of Namibia. Dea Research Discusion Paper, 72. Retrieved from: http://www.the-eis.com/data/RDPs/RDP72.pdf
Froyen, Richard T. (1996). Macroeconomics: Theory and policies (5th ed.). United States of America: Prentice-Hall.
Gujarati, Damodar. (2003). Basic econometrics (4th ed.). New York: Mc Graw Hill.
Ismalia, Mohammed, & Imoughele, Lawrence.E. (2015). Monetary policy and balance of payment stability in Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research in Public Policy and Governance, 2(1), 1-15.
Iyoboyi, Martins. (2014). Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence of Nigeria. Research Article, Cogent Economics and Finance, 2. Retrieved from: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23322039.2014.923323
Keyle, John. F. (1976). The balance of payment in a monetary economy. United Kingdom: Princeton University Press.
Mankiw, N. Gregory., & David Romer. (eds). (1991). New Keynesian economics volume 1: Imperfect competition and sticky prices. London. England: The MIT Press.
Masdjojo, Gregorius, N. (2008). Study of Keynesian approach and Monetary approach to the international reserve dynamics: Empirical study in Indonesia during the period of 1983-2008. Dissertation. Semarang, Indonesia: Diponegoro University.
Nopirin. (1999). International economics. Yogyakarta, Indonesia: BPFE Yogyakarta.
Tijani, Julius. O. (2014). Monetary policy and balance of payment stability in Nigeria. Medditeranean Journal of Social Science, 5(14). 67-76.
Umer, Muhammad, Muhammad, Sulaiman. D., Abro, Alif Asif, Sheikh, Qurrra-Tul-Ain Ali., & Ghazali, Ahmad. (2010). The balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon: Econometric evidence from Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 32, 210-219.
Widarjono, Agus. (2007). Econometrics: Theory and application (3rd ed.). Yogyakarta, Indonesia: Ekanesia.
Wright, David McCords. (1961). The Keynessian system. New York City: Fordham University Pers.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
104266018
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104266018
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 莊奕琦zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chuang, Yih-Chyien_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 夏英杰zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 夏英杰zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2017en_US
dc.date.accessioned 28-Aug-2017 12:06:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 28-Aug-2017 12:06:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 28-Aug-2017 12:06:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0104266018en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/112272-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 104266018zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run.zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 1
1.1 Problem Statement 1
1.2 Literature Review 4
1.3 Organization of thesis 8
2. Theoretical Framework 9
2.1 Balance of Payment and Its Components 9
2.2 Keynesian Approach and Monetary Approach to Balance of
Payment 10
2.2.1 Elasticity Approach 10
2.2.2 Absorption Approach 11
2.2.3 Monetary Approach 12
2.3 The Differences between Keynesian Approach and Monetary
Approach to Balance of Payment 14
2.4 The Determinant of Balance of Payment 15
2.5 Other Control Variables Used in Literature for Robustness Test 17
3. Methodology 19
3.1 Data and Description of Variables 19
3.2 Analyses Technique 21
3.3 Estimation Model 22
4. The Background of Research Variables 24
4.1 Balance of Payment in Six ASEAN Countries 24
4.2 Exchange Rate in Six ASEAN Countries 25
4.3 GDP in Six ASEAN Countries 26
4.4 Domestic Credit in Six ASEAN Countries 27
4.5 Interest Rate in Six ASEAN Countries 28
4.6 Price in Six ASEAN Countries 29
5. Result of Estimation 31
5.1 Findings 31
6. Conclusion and Policy Implication 36
Bibliography 37
Appendix 39
Data 45		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1125817 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104266018en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 收入平均zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 凱因斯主義分析法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貨幣分析法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 面板數據zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Balance of paymentsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Keynesian approachen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Monetary approachen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel dataen_US
dc.title (題名) 六個東協國家國際收支的決定因素研究: 以Panel Data分析法zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Determinants of Balance of Payments in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Data Analysisen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Adamu, Patricia A. (2007). Balance of payment adjustment: The west African monetary zone experience. Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 10(2), 100-116.
Akpansung, Aniekan O. (2013). A review of empirical literature on balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 4(2), 124-132.
Ali, Arfan, Shukui, Tan, Selvarathnam, Santhirasegaram, Xiaolin, Xu & Sabor, Abdul. (2008). Political stability and balance of payment: An empirical study in Asia. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(9), 1149-1157.
Bird, Graham. (1981). Balance of payment stabilisation in developing countries. Odi Working paper, 5. Retrieved from: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/6831.pdf
Blanchard, Oliver & Johnson, David. (2013). Macroeconomics (6rd ed.) London: Pearson.
Brown, Denis, & Bidemi, Joseph. (2015). Fiscal policy measures and balance of payments in Nigeria. Journal of Global Economics, 3(4), 1-6.
Daniels, Joseph & VanHose, David. (2005). International monetary and financial Economics (3rd ed.) New York: Mc Graw Hill.
Dornbusch, Rudiger & Standley Fischer. (1995). Macroeconomics (6th ed.) United States of America: Thomson Shouth-Western.
Duasa, Jarita. (2004). The Malaysian balance of payments: Keynesian Approach Versus Monetary Approach. Retrieved from http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/scescecf4/26.htm
Dullien, Sebastian, Kotle, Detlef J., Marques, Alejandro, Priewe Jan. (2010). The financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 and developing countries. New York: United Nations.
Fleermuys, FN (2005). The balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon: An econometric study of Namibia. Dea Research Discusion Paper, 72. Retrieved from: http://www.the-eis.com/data/RDPs/RDP72.pdf
Froyen, Richard T. (1996). Macroeconomics: Theory and policies (5th ed.). United States of America: Prentice-Hall.
Gujarati, Damodar. (2003). Basic econometrics (4th ed.). New York: Mc Graw Hill.
Ismalia, Mohammed, & Imoughele, Lawrence.E. (2015). Monetary policy and balance of payment stability in Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research in Public Policy and Governance, 2(1), 1-15.
Iyoboyi, Martins. (2014). Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence of Nigeria. Research Article, Cogent Economics and Finance, 2. Retrieved from: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23322039.2014.923323
Keyle, John. F. (1976). The balance of payment in a monetary economy. United Kingdom: Princeton University Press.
Mankiw, N. Gregory., & David Romer. (eds). (1991). New Keynesian economics volume 1: Imperfect competition and sticky prices. London. England: The MIT Press.
Masdjojo, Gregorius, N. (2008). Study of Keynesian approach and Monetary approach to the international reserve dynamics: Empirical study in Indonesia during the period of 1983-2008. Dissertation. Semarang, Indonesia: Diponegoro University.
Nopirin. (1999). International economics. Yogyakarta, Indonesia: BPFE Yogyakarta.
Tijani, Julius. O. (2014). Monetary policy and balance of payment stability in Nigeria. Medditeranean Journal of Social Science, 5(14). 67-76.
Umer, Muhammad, Muhammad, Sulaiman. D., Abro, Alif Asif, Sheikh, Qurrra-Tul-Ain Ali., & Ghazali, Ahmad. (2010). The balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon: Econometric evidence from Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 32, 210-219.
Widarjono, Agus. (2007). Econometrics: Theory and application (3rd ed.). Yogyakarta, Indonesia: Ekanesia.
Wright, David McCords. (1961). The Keynessian system. New York City: Fordham University Pers.		zh_TW