學術產出-學位論文
文章檢視/開啟
書目匯出
-
題名 六個東協國家國際收支的決定因素研究: 以Panel Data分析法
The Determinants of Balance of Payments in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis作者 夏英杰 貢獻者 莊奕琦
Chuang, Yih-Chyi
夏英杰關鍵詞 收入平均
凱因斯主義分析法
貨幣分析法
面板數據
Balance of payments
Keynesian approach
Monetary approach
Panel data日期 2017 上傳時間 28-八月-2017 12:06:57 (UTC+8) 摘要 This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run.
This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run.參考文獻 Adamu, Patricia A. (2007). Balance of payment adjustment: The west African monetary zone experience. Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 10(2), 100-116. \nAkpansung, Aniekan O. (2013). A review of empirical literature on balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 4(2), 124-132.\nAli, Arfan, Shukui, Tan, Selvarathnam, Santhirasegaram, Xiaolin, Xu & Sabor, Abdul. (2008). Political stability and balance of payment: An empirical study in Asia. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(9), 1149-1157.\nBird, Graham. (1981). Balance of payment stabilisation in developing countries. Odi Working paper, 5. Retrieved from: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/6831.pdf\nBlanchard, Oliver & Johnson, David. (2013). Macroeconomics (6rd ed.) London: Pearson.\nBrown, Denis, & Bidemi, Joseph. (2015). Fiscal policy measures and balance of payments in Nigeria. Journal of Global Economics, 3(4), 1-6.\nDaniels, Joseph & VanHose, David. (2005). International monetary and financial Economics (3rd ed.) New York: Mc Graw Hill.\nDornbusch, Rudiger & Standley Fischer. (1995). Macroeconomics (6th ed.) United States of America: Thomson Shouth-Western.\nDuasa, Jarita. (2004). The Malaysian balance of payments: Keynesian Approach Versus Monetary Approach. Retrieved from http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/scescecf4/26.htm\nDullien, Sebastian, Kotle, Detlef J., Marques, Alejandro, Priewe Jan. (2010). The financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 and developing countries. New York: United Nations.\nFleermuys, FN (2005). The balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon: An econometric study of Namibia. Dea Research Discusion Paper, 72. Retrieved from: http://www.the-eis.com/data/RDPs/RDP72.pdf\nFroyen, Richard T. (1996). Macroeconomics: Theory and policies (5th ed.). United States of America: Prentice-Hall.\nGujarati, Damodar. (2003). Basic econometrics (4th ed.). New York: Mc Graw Hill.\nIsmalia, Mohammed, & Imoughele, Lawrence.E. (2015). Monetary policy and balance of payment stability in Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research in Public Policy and Governance, 2(1), 1-15.\nIyoboyi, Martins. (2014). Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence of Nigeria. Research Article, Cogent Economics and Finance, 2. Retrieved from: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23322039.2014.923323\nKeyle, John. F. (1976). The balance of payment in a monetary economy. United Kingdom: Princeton University Press.\nMankiw, N. Gregory., & David Romer. (eds). (1991). New Keynesian economics volume 1: Imperfect competition and sticky prices. London. England: The MIT Press.\nMasdjojo, Gregorius, N. (2008). Study of Keynesian approach and Monetary approach to the international reserve dynamics: Empirical study in Indonesia during the period of 1983-2008. Dissertation. Semarang, Indonesia: Diponegoro University. \nNopirin. (1999). International economics. Yogyakarta, Indonesia: BPFE Yogyakarta.\nTijani, Julius. O. (2014). Monetary policy and balance of payment stability in Nigeria. Medditeranean Journal of Social Science, 5(14). 67-76.\nUmer, Muhammad, Muhammad, Sulaiman. D., Abro, Alif Asif, Sheikh, Qurrra-Tul-Ain Ali., & Ghazali, Ahmad. (2010). The balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon: Econometric evidence from Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 32, 210-219.\nWidarjono, Agus. (2007). Econometrics: Theory and application (3rd ed.). Yogyakarta, Indonesia: Ekanesia.\nWright, David McCords. (1961). The Keynessian system. New York City: Fordham University Pers. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
104266018資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104266018 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 莊奕琦 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chuang, Yih-Chyi en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 夏英杰 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 夏英杰 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2017 en_US dc.date.accessioned 28-八月-2017 12:06:57 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 28-八月-2017 12:06:57 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 28-八月-2017 12:06:57 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0104266018 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=129145 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 104266018 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run. zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 1\n1.1 Problem Statement 1\n1.2 Literature Review 4\n1.3 Organization of thesis 8\n2. Theoretical Framework 9\n2.1 Balance of Payment and Its Components 9\n2.2 Keynesian Approach and Monetary Approach to Balance of\nPayment 10\n 2.2.1 Elasticity Approach 10\n 2.2.2 Absorption Approach 11\n 2.2.3 Monetary Approach 12\n2.3 The Differences between Keynesian Approach and Monetary \nApproach to Balance of Payment 14\n2.4 The Determinant of Balance of Payment 15\n2.5 Other Control Variables Used in Literature for Robustness Test 17\n3. Methodology 19\n3.1 Data and Description of Variables 19\n3.2 Analyses Technique 21\n3.3 Estimation Model 22\n4. The Background of Research Variables 24\n4.1 Balance of Payment in Six ASEAN Countries 24\n4.2 Exchange Rate in Six ASEAN Countries 25\n4.3 GDP in Six ASEAN Countries 26\n4.4 Domestic Credit in Six ASEAN Countries 27\n4.5 Interest Rate in Six ASEAN Countries 28\n4.6 Price in Six ASEAN Countries 29\n5. Result of Estimation 31\n5.1 Findings 31 \n6. Conclusion and Policy Implication 36\nBibliography 37\nAppendix 39\nData 45 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1125817 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104266018 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 收入平均 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 凱因斯主義分析法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貨幣分析法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 面板數據 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Balance of payments en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Keynesian approach en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Monetary approach en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel data en_US dc.title (題名) 六個東協國家國際收支的決定因素研究: 以Panel Data分析法 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Determinants of Balance of Payments in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Adamu, Patricia A. (2007). Balance of payment adjustment: The west African monetary zone experience. Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 10(2), 100-116. \nAkpansung, Aniekan O. (2013). A review of empirical literature on balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 4(2), 124-132.\nAli, Arfan, Shukui, Tan, Selvarathnam, Santhirasegaram, Xiaolin, Xu & Sabor, Abdul. (2008). Political stability and balance of payment: An empirical study in Asia. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(9), 1149-1157.\nBird, Graham. (1981). Balance of payment stabilisation in developing countries. Odi Working paper, 5. Retrieved from: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/6831.pdf\nBlanchard, Oliver & Johnson, David. (2013). Macroeconomics (6rd ed.) London: Pearson.\nBrown, Denis, & Bidemi, Joseph. (2015). Fiscal policy measures and balance of payments in Nigeria. Journal of Global Economics, 3(4), 1-6.\nDaniels, Joseph & VanHose, David. (2005). International monetary and financial Economics (3rd ed.) New York: Mc Graw Hill.\nDornbusch, Rudiger & Standley Fischer. (1995). Macroeconomics (6th ed.) United States of America: Thomson Shouth-Western.\nDuasa, Jarita. (2004). The Malaysian balance of payments: Keynesian Approach Versus Monetary Approach. Retrieved from http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/scescecf4/26.htm\nDullien, Sebastian, Kotle, Detlef J., Marques, Alejandro, Priewe Jan. (2010). The financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 and developing countries. New York: United Nations.\nFleermuys, FN (2005). The balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon: An econometric study of Namibia. Dea Research Discusion Paper, 72. Retrieved from: http://www.the-eis.com/data/RDPs/RDP72.pdf\nFroyen, Richard T. (1996). Macroeconomics: Theory and policies (5th ed.). United States of America: Prentice-Hall.\nGujarati, Damodar. (2003). Basic econometrics (4th ed.). New York: Mc Graw Hill.\nIsmalia, Mohammed, & Imoughele, Lawrence.E. (2015). Monetary policy and balance of payment stability in Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research in Public Policy and Governance, 2(1), 1-15.\nIyoboyi, Martins. (2014). Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence of Nigeria. Research Article, Cogent Economics and Finance, 2. Retrieved from: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23322039.2014.923323\nKeyle, John. F. (1976). The balance of payment in a monetary economy. United Kingdom: Princeton University Press.\nMankiw, N. Gregory., & David Romer. (eds). (1991). New Keynesian economics volume 1: Imperfect competition and sticky prices. London. England: The MIT Press.\nMasdjojo, Gregorius, N. (2008). Study of Keynesian approach and Monetary approach to the international reserve dynamics: Empirical study in Indonesia during the period of 1983-2008. Dissertation. Semarang, Indonesia: Diponegoro University. \nNopirin. (1999). International economics. Yogyakarta, Indonesia: BPFE Yogyakarta.\nTijani, Julius. O. (2014). Monetary policy and balance of payment stability in Nigeria. Medditeranean Journal of Social Science, 5(14). 67-76.\nUmer, Muhammad, Muhammad, Sulaiman. D., Abro, Alif Asif, Sheikh, Qurrra-Tul-Ain Ali., & Ghazali, Ahmad. (2010). The balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon: Econometric evidence from Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 32, 210-219.\nWidarjono, Agus. (2007). Econometrics: Theory and application (3rd ed.). Yogyakarta, Indonesia: Ekanesia.\nWright, David McCords. (1961). The Keynessian system. New York City: Fordham University Pers. zh_TW
